War Against ISIS

[John Fedup]

Assad`s strategic options...looking pretty good given the Ukraine situation. The West has neither the stones or the money to do much at this point. It is better to save the ammo and money for the bigger problems, Iran and maybe Russia.

 

[Feanor]

Well it looks like Assad might be done for. There have been consistent rumors floating around that Turkey intends to intervene in Syria to remove Assad.

Meanwhile the Russian Syrian Express has resumed, after a 3 week hiatus (for the operation in Crimea).

Флот открытого океана: Ð¢Ñ€ÐµÑ‚ÑŒÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¿Ñ‹Ñ‚ÐºÐ° - "КрымÑкие каникулы" заканчиваÑÑ - БДК возобновлÑÑŽÑ‚ регулÑрные рейÑÑ‹ в Сирию

 

[Feanor]

A photo of ZSU-34-4 used by government forces. It looks like it's the "Afghan" style mod, with the radar removed, and the vehicle used in an anti-ground role.

Блог "ВеÑтника ПВО" - Шилка в Сирии

 

[STURM]

Well it looks like Assad might be done for. There have been consistent rumors floating around that Turkey intends to intervene in Syria to remove Assad.

Turkey will no doubt receive the full backing of Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states but whether it receives the support of the U.S. remains the question. It also remains to be seen what Russia's reaction will be. There is also the question of why Turkey would embark on such a move; is it because Assad seems to be gaining ground or is it also intended to improve Turkey's standing?

If indeed the reports are true, Erdogan will be taking a major risk; the whole thing might blow up in his face.

 

[the concerned]

Although Turkey and Syria have had tit for tat military exchanges the only reason I can see Turkey taking it further is to draw attention away from the internal problems of its own country. Otherwise the in fighting between various rebels have basically handed assad the victory.

 

[Volkodav]

Turkey will no doubt receive the full backing of Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states but whether it receives the support of the U.S. remains the question. It also remains to be seen what Russia's reaction will be. There is also the question of why Turkey would embark on such a move; is it because Assad seems to be gaining ground or is it also intended to improve Turkey's standing?

If indeed the reports are true, Erdogan will be taking a major risk; the whole thing might blow up in his face.

Makes you wonder what Turkey is thinking about the Ukraine and in particular the Crimea? Maybe their intent is to remove Syria as a threat and reorient their defence toward Russia.

 

[Feanor]

Makes you wonder what Turkey is thinking about the Ukraine and in particular the Crimea? Maybe their intent is to remove Syria as a threat and reorient their defence toward Russia.

Maybe their thinking is "everyone is busy with Russia, we can get away with it now".

But to be honest I'm not sure they can remove Syria as a threat. The rebels won't stop being a disorganized and internally unstable mess, just because Assad is removed. Syria run by Assad is probably less of a threat then Syria run by the rebels because Assad's military was not much of a threat to Turkey, and certainly won't be after the pounding they've taken. On the other hand huge quantities of fighters who have weapons, are used to extreme violence, and are not centrally controlled....

 

[STURM]

On paper the Turkish military certainly has the capabilty to sweep aside the Syrain military but what comes after that? There're too many unanswered questions: [1] Is Turkey going to have the patience, the ability and the will to help put the country back together again or is Turkey expecting the UN and Arab League to come in at that point? [2] Will Turk troops protect the defeated Alawites and other minorities from the 'victorious' Sunnis? [3] Will Erdogan have the support of the Turkish public? [4] How will it affect the Turkish economy if things don't go as planned? [5] Will Russia stand by and do nothing?

Given that NATO will most certainly be dragged in if the whole thing goes rat shit for Turkey or if Syrian shells start falling on Turkey [which the Syrians will say is self-defence against a foreign invader], I would imagine that NATO will do all it can to dissuade the Turks from going into Syria and attempting regime change. What is very ironic is that during the 1990's Turkey tried its best to become good mates with the Arabs, who in turn were still wary of the Turks, given the Ottoman history. According to Robert Kaplan this was the main reason Turkey then forged a relationship with Israel; because the Arabs were lukewarm to the idea of becoming ''closer'' to Turkey. Today however things have changed, Turkey and the Gulf states [for slightly different reasons] have a common objective: the removal of Assad.

 

[My2Cents]

The fighting in Syria is not going to wind down for a long time. Turkey may just attack enough to form a buffer putting their border out of range of cannon and rockets. The people in the border settlements have certainly been asking for something like that. It would also give them somewhere else to put the refugees from the fighting, though the UN is sure to object.

 

[swerve]

...
Given that NATO will most certainly be dragged in if ... Syrian shells start falling on Turkey ....

Syrian shells have fallen on Turkey a few times. Turkish civilians have been killed. NATO has not been dragged in.

NATO would only be dragged in if Turkey asked for NATO help, & it would not be sure of getting help if it had intervened. NATO is a defensive alliance: if a NATO state attacks another country, there is no obligation for NATO to render assistance if it starts losing.

 

[John Fedup]

The fighting in Syria is not going to wind down for a long time. Turkey may just attack enough to form a buffer putting their border out of range of cannon and rockets. The people in the border settlements have certainly been asking for something like that. It would also give them somewhere else to put the refugees from the fighting, though the UN is sure to object.

Agreed. A buffer zone makes sense and helps sort out the refuge issue for Turkey somewhat. Like it or not, Assad is a better alternative than what would replace him as we have seen already. Unfortunately, the Syrians will only realize this if Assad falls. Too bad but reality sometimes sucks. Clearly Israel agrees, or his sorry a$$ would have been history months ago.

 

[Feanor]

Some interesting info. It appears that, despite Russian efforts to resupply Syria, they're scraping the bottom of the barrel.

You can see ZSU-57-2, and an improvised ARV with a gun and a makeshift turrent. You can also see the improvised armored pickup, with an HMG. These are signs of desperation.

Oryx Blog: The Syrian Arab Army in decay; Emptying the depots

Also apparently air-to-air R-40 missiles were fired at ground targets.
They were fired by MiG-25 interceptors. This is a sign of extreme desperation, and even goes beyond the earlier use of rolling IED bombs out of Mi-8s, and using MiG-29s for ground attack.

Oryx Blog: The SyAAF in decay; R-40s used as AGMs in a desperate attempt to relieve fighter-bombers?

Meanwhile spotted in Latakia, along with the armored Ural delivered recently by Russia, is a moderately worn BTR-80. Is Syria receiving BTR-80s now? If they're new, why not BTR-82s? They could be surplus Russian military vehicles, after an overhaul. Then again they could just be new BTR-80s, bought for cost reasons.

Oryx Blog: Syrian BTR-80s, a recent acquisition?

Despite this, the Syrian government has recently won a major victory in the battle of Yabroud, where it was assisted by quite technologically and tactically sophisticated Hezbollah allies, who used improvised armored pickups, and had relatively modern personal equipment.

There is also evidence of BM-30 MLRS rockets being used by the Syrian government, but no material on the launchers. They could be using the munitions in an improvised manner. In fact it would make a lot of sense for Russia to deliver old, nearly past service life munitions, to Syria as both a way to support an ally, and to dispose of old equipment.

http://brown-moses.blogspot.ru/2014/02/more-evidence-of-bm-30-smerch-launched.html
http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/evidence-of-syrian-military-deploying.html

Meanwhile the VMF taskforce near Syria remains at a peak, with both Peter the Great, and the Admiral Kuznetsov deployed there, along with one BPK (ASubW destroyer), and 2 BDKs. There is also one reconnaissance ship (ELINT/SIGINT) and supply vessels.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/804548.html

 

[Eeshaan]

So I have heard that the rebels have gotten their hands on TOW missles ( mostly via Saudi Arabia), which should be more than adequate against Syrian T-72s.

Check Out the Syrian Rebels' Insane New Missile Launcher

But what about Kornets ? Have there been any reports of the Rebels using Kornets against Syrian tanks ? These guys are being supplied by SA and other anti-Iran/Syrian nations in the region, I would not be surprised at all to see some of Oman's or Jordan's Javelin launchers in their hands in the near future.

 

[Feanor]

So I have heard that the rebels have gotten their hands on TOW missles ( mostly via Saudi Arabia), which should be more than adequate against Syrian T-72s.

Check Out the Syrian Rebels' Insane New Missile Launcher

But what about Kornets ? Have there been any reports of the Rebels using Kornets against Syrian tanks ? These guys are being supplied by SA and other anti-Iran/Syrian nations in the region, I would not be surprised at all to see some of Oman's or Jordan's Javelin launchers in their hands in the near future.

I don't know about the Syrians, but in Iraq the insurgents have been using Kornets, including (successfully) against M1A1 Abrams tanks. It's probably only a matter of time before the Syrian rebels have these too.

 

[surpreme]

Care to elaborate? Where is your information coming from?

Got from a real source couldn't give out. Now the information has came out on Yahoo and military magazines. There operation has change to commando styles due to factors on the ground. The point I want to get across if you study the Israel military and learn what to do with the limited weapons and still cause damage to Israel forces you came a long way. The insurgents or rebels hasn't fought a professional army the Syrian armed forces hasn't been upgraded . Can anyone name when they receive military upgrade ? I haven't seen no new up to date equipment yet. Except for some new air defense and some new upgraded T-72's. I really have to give there military intelligence credit in putting the right unit at right place. The Syrian unit are fighting ex Syrian unit from there armed forces not a easy task. This is the worst thing that happen to any army.

 

[STURM]

The point I want to get across if you study the Israel military and learn what to do with the limited weapons and still cause damage to Israel forces you came a long way.

Not as simple as that. If they ever go in again the Israeli's will make sure they don't make the same mistakes again and Hezbollah, which has also learnt from its mistakes, will also try to do things differently and rectify mistakes made in 2006.

Also the situation on the ground in Syria is a bit different than it was in southern Lebanon; in Syria much of the fighting is also being conducted in an urban or semi urban surrounding.

Meanwhile it looks like the ''rebels'' are - again - having a go at each other. Assad must be beaming with joy.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/11/world/meast/syria-civil-war/

It appears that chlorine gas has been used and not surprisingly both sides are blaming each other. A question have been asking remains : what will the West and the UN do if proof is obtained which indicated the use of gas by the ''rebels''?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ine-gas-attack-on-syrian-village-9259721.html

 

[Thinkingfor29]

I've noticed some rebel organizations have started a slow rate production of mortars and rockets similar to Katushya variants and also similar to 107mm rocket types.

I've also have been surprised to see upgraded rockets with a claimed range of 60KM by certain rebel factions, I will upload the video of the launch if anyone requests to view it.

 

[Feanor]

Turkey's building a wall along the Syrian border.

ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - Ð¢ÑƒÑ€ÐµÑ†ÐºÐ°Ñ Ñтена

Meanwhile the Syrian Army has taken control of Zabadani.

СирийÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð·Ñла под контроль Забадани в провинции ДамаÑк и поÑелок Самра в Латакии

It looks like, despite the earlier bluster, Turkey is not going in, and Assad may be allowed to win his war.

 

[Thinkingfor29]

Turkey's building a wall along the Syrian border.


Meanwhile the Syrian Army has taken control of Zabadani.


It looks like, despite the earlier bluster, Turkey is not going in, and Assad may be allowed to win his war.

This I agree with, the international community has took a whole turn against the opposition and I believe that the little support they give nowadays is for the credentials. The world wants a Assad victory since he's making gains as time goes by, at first I thought it would be a partition.

 

[surpreme]

The Syrian War has changed Hezbollah

Any military analyst will tell you that real experience come from actually fighting in a real war. With did being said Hezbollah has gotten lot of experience fighting urban warfare. The lesson they learn from this can be use in future combat. Assad's strategic option of letting Hezbollah enter the fight was smart decision. I'm not trying to get on one side of the fence but someone has called like it is. I must said I'm impress with the way they adopt to the war. From the beginning most of all military analyst doubted the Hezbollah ability to help Assad forces. Look forward to 2014 the reverses that been going on no one would have imagine Assad being in position he's in now. The experience will make a big different in any encounter with Israelis forces. When the day come when Hezbollah receives some air defense asset such MANPODS watch out things going be rough.