War Against ISIS

It looks like almost the entire fixed wing air group from the Kuznetsov is currently at Hmeimeem. Why exactly is unclear, but some sources have speculated that the bulk of their sorties have been flown from Hmeimeem rather then from Kuznetsov.

Су-33 Ñ "Ðдмирала Кузнецова" на авиабазе Хмеймим - bmpd
It was reported( from some media source) the Su-33 detachment had been conducting land-based ops, 1-2 days post incident.. Could be co-incidence, but I believe Waylander is correct on his supposition - Syrian air-ops would have been limited in their efficiency.

On Kuznetsov herself - I'm hearing conflicting reports she will/won't receive the 2018 upgrade.. Is there a firm report on what will eventuate?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It was reported( from some media source) the Su-33 detachment had been conducting land-based ops, 1-2 days post incident.. Could be co-incidence, but I believe Waylander is correct on his supposition - Syrian air-ops would have been limited in their efficiency.

On Kuznetsov herself - I'm hearing conflicting reports she will/won't receive the 2018 upgrade.. Is there a firm report on what will eventuate?
She will receive upgrade and overhaul. Details on what exactly it will entail are lacking, though a UAV squadron has been mentioned, and removing the Granit AShMs also. We will likely see a renewed airwing, less weapons, and more aircraft, as well as bigger munitions storage facilities. The rest is all unclear.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
How extensive the overhaul and upgrade will be...considering if not mistaken the replacement will begin to build on 2020 with expected operation in 2025..

If that so..then the modification will only take a year or two..which indicating will not be too far..
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
How extensive the overhaul and upgrade will be...considering if not mistaken the replacement will begin to build on 2020 with expected operation in 2025..

If that so..then the modification will only take a year or two..which indicating will not be too far..
Those replacement timelines are extremely optimistic. I don't think we will see an operational replacement in 2025. I think the VMF will be lucky to have a new carrier by 2030.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Putin expressed his condolences over the death of 3 Turkish soldiers from a Syrian air strike. Meanwhile Turkey has redeployed air defense assets into Syria. There was unconfirmed info of a second strike on Turkish positions but Turkish sources deny that it took place. Meanwhile it looks like the SAA has cut the Kurds off from reaching al-Bab. That having been said, their recent push against ISIS positions in this area was basically undertaken together. Also an allegedly American UAV that was jamming Russian jets was downed. Finally the Kurdish base in Hasake that houses some US troops as well was hit, with a series of explosions. Who hit it is unclear, but there are rumors that it was a Turkish air strike. Key word there, RUMORS. There were also some clashes between pro-Turkish fighters and Kurds, north-east of Aleppo.

ИнтереÑные дела - Colonel Cassad

Meanwhile the rebels' defenses inside Aleppo have collapse, with SAA forces taking the Hanano quarter and coming close to splitting the city in two. There are rumors that one of the rebel groups is negotiating a surrender in exchange for safe passage out. There are repots of Tochka-U missiles being used by government forces.

Обвал обороны боевиков в Северном Ðлеппо - Colonel Cassad
Удар тактичеÑкой ракетой 9Ðœ79-1 «Точка-У» по котлу в ВоÑточном Ðлеппо: diana_mihailova

Iranian C-130s seen over Idlib again.

Снова иранÑкий C-130 в небе над провинцией Идлиб - Юрий ЛÑмин

Russian sources claim that the carrier air group was seen in Hmeimeem to get experience operating from a combination of carrier and land bases.

Потому что в первый раз - Берлога Бронемедведа

Meanwhile Iran's MinDef mentioned that the base in Hamadan might be used by Russia again.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èðàí ìîæåò ðàçðåøèòü ðîññèéñêèì ñàìîëåòàì âíîâü çàäåéñòâîâàòü áàçó Õàìàäàí
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

The rebels in northern Aleppo are done. Massive number of civilians are fleeing into government controlled areas, and the rebels are now in a pocket in the southern part.Meanwhile massive stockpiles of weapons from Eastern Europe are found in the hands of al-Nusra. It appears that NATO-supplied aid to the FSA ended up handed over to the jihadis. At least I hope that's what happened, and they weren't intentionally supplied to al-Nusra by someone.

Север Ðлеппо полноÑтью оÑвобожден - Colonel Cassad
ÐšÐ¾Ð»Ð»Ð°Ð¿Ñ Ð¡ÐµÐ²ÐµÑ€Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ Ðлеппо - Colonel Cassad
Трофеи Ðлеппо: польÑкие, чешÑкие и болгарÑкие боеприпаÑÑ‹ Ñо Ñкладов Джебхад-Ðн-ÐуÑры: diana_mihailova

Another Abrams destroyed by ATGM near Mosul, meanwhile the Iraqi militias are completing the encirclement of Mosul at Tel Afar. A US UAV was downed there also.

Еще один "ÐбрамÑ" - Colonel Cassad
Бои в районе иракÑкого г.Тель-Ðфар - Юрий ЛÑмин
Момент ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð‘Ð›Ð MQ-9 Reaper над Талль-Ðфаром в Ираке - bmpd

Footage of the Turkish army beginning the assault of al-Bab.

Ð¢ÑƒÑ€ÐµÑ†ÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð² битве за Ðль-Баб - Colonel Cassad

A mis-labeled T-72B mod '89 takes two ATGM hits and apparently survives.

Два пуÑка боевиками ПТУР TOW против Т-72Б обр.1989 г. правительÑтвенных Ñил Сирии - Юрий ЛÑмин

Near Damascus, the rebels have surrendered and taken the option to transport to Idlib.

ИÑход из Западной Гуты - Colonel Cassad

A US soldier was killed in Syria by IED.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ñèðèè ïîãèá, ïîäîðâàâøèñü íà áîìáå, àìåðèêàíñêèé âîåííîñëóæàùèé

ZU-23-2s airdropped into Deyr-ez-Zor to resupply the defenders there.

Just a nice pic - bmpd

Syrian T-72s are sporting some type of new thermal sight. It's referred to as Viper.

Gur Khan attacks!: СирийÑкие танки получили Ñффективные термоприцелы "Viper"
Gur Khan attacks!: Сирийцы ÑтавÑÑ‚ на танки Т-72 тепловизионные прицелы ÑобÑтвенного производÑтва

SyAAF Su-22M4 carrying 240mm unguided rockets.

Су-22Ðœ4 ВВС Сирии Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð²ÐµÑˆÐµÐ½Ð½Ñ‹Ð¼Ð¸ 240-мм ÐÐР С-24 - Юрий ЛÑмин

A meeting took place between Russian military personnel and Hezbollah field commanders around Aleppo to improve coordination between the two.

https://aftershock.news/?q=node/459680

Turkey continues it's media crack down, two reporters for the BBS and Voice of America were arrested in the Kurdish-populated areas of the south-east. No reason has been provided.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Òóðöèè çàäåðæàëè ðåïîðòåðîâ ÂÂÑ è "Ãîëîñà Àìåðèêè"

An interesting article on ISIS armor.

Oryx Blog: The Islamic State going DIY, the birth of the battle tram

Russia has rotated their Su-35S in Syria for a new 4.

Ðовые Су-35С пошли в Сирию - bmpd

Russian NBC troops have collected evidence of rebel use of chemical weapons in Aleppo.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèéñêèå âîåííûå äîêàçàëè èñïîëüçîâàíèå ñèðèéñêèìè áîåâèêàìè õèìîðóæèÿ â Àëåïïî

Footage of the continued fighting against ISIS in the northern Sinai peninsula, by the Egyptians.

Война на Синае - Colonel Cassad

Russia has announced plans to expand port infrastructure in Tartus and to build a second landing strip in Hmeimeem.

"Мы пришли в Сирию вÑерьез и надолго..." - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
https://southfront.org/syrian-tanks-use-new-powerful-thermal-sights-photo/

Well according to that article, they are improved thermal sights with clearer visibility and better range.

Anyway, I am really worried about the Al Bab situation. There are some SAA-affiliated (mostly) kurds that took a village from FSA/turks just east of the city. The kurds are fighting from the west, the FSA/turks are ready to storm from the north ... what a love triangle!

Reminder that Turkey is a rogue state.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
And caught in the middle are ordinary Syrians who just want to survive. It has been a ''love triangle'' from the start with the West, Russia, Turkey, Iran and the Gulf states all getting involved; for their own national interests. There is a lot of uncertainty of how things might change once Trump takes charge of the U.S. Syrian and Russian efforts to take Aleppo fast is driven by the uncertainty of what Trump might do and the need to gain whatever battlefield advantage than can be gained. The main worry for IS is not losing more ground but it's enemies starting to cooperate; unlikely to happen though. What happens in Iraq will also affect what happens in Syria as both conflicts have been linked from the start. On paper it looks good with IS losing ground in both territories but unfortunately it's not as simple as that.

[Preventing Mosul From Becoming Fallujah On A Grand Scale]
http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/preventing-mosul-from-becoming-fallujah-on-a-grand-scale

[How Much Longer Can East Aleppo Hold Out?]
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/longer-east-aleppo-hold-161123200320557.html

[Inside Story - Who Uses Chlorine In Syria?]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuLS48Crf8Q
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
I read that Al Jazeera article. I didn't need to read about a siege sob story with complaints about lack of food, medicine, electricity, constant bombing etc. This is par for the course in any such situation. What I wanted to know and didn't get an answer to, is why these people with several kids don't escape to government held areas. Will they be harmed or what?

The elephant of the room remains: What the hell are you and your family doing inside bombed-out Aleppo at this point?
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
This is par for the course in any such situation.
Maybe but it doesn't mean that we should stop being reminded of it or it or that people should stop writing about it.

What the hell are you and your family doing inside bombed-out Aleppo at this point?
It's easy to ask such a question when one's not in a similar situation.

There could be various reasons why families haven't moved. It could be be they're unable to; because they don't want to take the risk with children or with old people; hopes that the fighting will move elsewhere, because of fears that they won't make it pass the checkpoints, because they're prevented from leaving [there have been reports of civilians being prevented to leave by rebels], etc, etc. On paper it's easy and logical : get out to somewhere safe. In reality it's not as easy as that due to several factors. I have no idea what I'd do in a similar situation.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
What I wanted to know and didn't get an answer to, is why these people with several kids don't escape to government held areas. Will they be harmed or what?

The elephant of the room remains: What the hell are you and your family doing inside bombed-out Aleppo at this point?
Escaping through an active front line isn't necessarily safer than staying put. Until recently, the government resisted international efforts to broker ceasefires long enough for those who wished to leave safely. The first such ceasefire was a result of Russian pressure, IIRC - & I think it didn't last as long as it was meant to. There have also been reports, as mentioned here, of attempts to leave being blocked by some of the rebels, & also of people who've got out being treated as rebels once they reach government-held territory.

Like Sturm, I don't know what I'd do.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
So, like me, you don't know the reasons that these people are still there. It would be interesting to know about it. When reading an interview of people in a sieged town, I would think that the first priority would be to know why they are trapped there while the vast majority of people are out.

Just reading an article about how bad life is in a warzone with no proper context tingles my propaganda sixth sense. Like that twitter account of a little syrian girl who calls for 3rd world war to happen to stop Assad and the russians and is supposedly constantly bombed and injured and on the verge of dying but always has internet access to post this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlabedBana/status/781597903924125697
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
So, like me, you don't know the reasons that these people are still there. It would be interesting to know about it. When reading an interview of people in a sieged town, I would think that the first priority would be to know why they are trapped there while the vast majority of people are out.

Just reading an article about how bad life is in a warzone with no proper context tingles my propaganda sixth sense. Like that twitter account of a little syrian girl who calls for 3rd world war to happen to stop Assad and the russians and is supposedly constantly bombed and injured and on the verge of dying but always has internet access to post this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlabedBana/status/781597903924125697
It's very hard to cross the front line and when Russia forced Assad to set up humanitarian corridors, the rebels inside prevented the civilians from using them, reportedly going to far as to execute those who tried. There are also conflicting reports of those corridors being hit with mortar and machinegun fire with the two sides blaming each other for it. Basically the rebels wanted the civilians as a human shield, and the SAA made no effort to counter this.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

The battle for Mosul continues, and as the encirclement is complete, coalition forces are slowly pushing towards the city. It looks like the idea of a frontal assault has been abandoned, at least for the time.

Битва за МоÑул. 29.11.2016 - Colonel Cassad

An interesting discussion of a dated US airstrike in Syria.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/11/29/dissecting-us-airstrike-syria/

Syrian rebels posing with Strela-2 MANPADS.

СирийÑкие боевики показали Ñвои новые переноÑные ЗРК «Стрела-2» | Военный информатор

The Russian base in Tartus continues to expand its support and patrol boats.

База в ТартуÑе раÑтет и пополнÑетÑÑ Â«Ð Ð°Ð¿Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ€Ð°Ð¼Ð¸Â»: diana_mihailova

The French airforce is reporting a deficit of air to ground munitions, after increasing the number of strikes against ISIS by a factor of 3.

Ð’ ноÑбре ВВС Франции втрвеличили раÑход ÑредÑтв поражениÑ, в итоге образовалÑÑ Ð´ÐµÑ„Ð¸Ñ†Ð¸Ñ‚ - bmpd

Russian helo operations off of the Kuznetsov.

КÐГ - nortwolf_sam
 

Vulcan

Member
The French airforce is reporting a deficit of air to ground munitions, after increasing the number of strikes against ISIS by a factor of 3.
Big issue across the board, isn't the lead time on more basic PGMs something like 2 years if you order them from the manufacturer?
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
So, like me, you don't know the reasons that these people are still there. It would be interesting to know about it. When reading an interview of people in a sieged town, I would think that the first priority would be to know why they are trapped there while the vast majority of people are out.
Looking at various reports/articles that have appeared and based on past conflicts; there are various reasons [some of which I mentioned] why a lot of civilians are still stuck there and why some have chosen to stay. Nobody wants to live under constant danger with the threat of being killed on a daily basis. If they have chosen to stay then obviously they felt that trying to get out poses a greater danger and their best chance of surviving is to stay and hope the fighting ends or moves away. On the other hand, many have tried to leave but were unable to. Numerous accounts have mentioned rebels [not sure who these rebels are] preventing people from leaving and people prevented from leaving due to heavy fighting.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I was going by the word of both people on the ground & a Syrian MP affiliated with the government, both interviewed by the BBC. The people leaving thought it was a safe corridor, & the MP didn't deny it when asked about it.

Those who got out were met at a checkpoint by Russian troops who appeared to be expecting them & set up to handle them, with transport & medical staff. This was filmed by British TV, with the Russians apparently happy to talk to them.

So . . . it looks as if there was some kind of arrangement in place. If not, why would crowds (& there were crowds shown in the footage) be flocking to a particular crossing point?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I was going by the word of both people on the ground & a Syrian MP affiliated with the government, both interviewed by the BBC. The people leaving thought it was a safe corridor, & the MP didn't deny it when asked about it.

Those who got out were met at a checkpoint by Russian troops who appeared to be expecting them & set up to handle them, with transport & medical staff. This was filmed by British TV, with the Russians apparently happy to talk to them.

So . . . it looks as if there was some kind of arrangement in place. If not, why would crowds (& there were crowds shown in the footage) be flocking to a particular crossing point?
It was probably an improvised crossing point set up to get the locals out. This makes a lot of sense. They might have avoided announcing the corridors in the hopes of avoiding attacks on the civilians trying to leave.

Do you have any details on the incident?
 
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