The unstable situation in Myanmar.

Sandhi Yudha

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  • #61
Only more worse and depressive news is coming from Myanmar. Tactics that look more like executions and random/indiscriminative shootings on civillians.....
Whats wrong with the Tatmadaw? What do they want to achieve with such actions!?

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update 11: The chance of civil war has increased

35. Police had been aggressively patrolling residential neighbourhoods at night, firing into the air and setting off stun grenades in an effort at intimidation. They have also been carrying out targeted raids, taking people from their homes with minimal resistance. In at least two known cases, the detainees died in custody within hours of being taken away. Myanmar’s military says Zaw Myat Lin, one of the National League for Democracy officials who died in custody, jumped off a building onto a steel pipe. They say they are going to take “severe action” against people who suggest otherwise, i.e that he was tortured to death.

36. In an interview in New York, Myanmar’s ambassador to the United Nations Kyaw Moe Tun thanked the UN security council for issuing a presidential statement on 10 Mar 2021 to condemn the violence against the protesters. The statement, which was issued was unanimously approved by all 15 security council members said:

“The Security Council strongly condemns the violence against peaceful protestors, including against women, youth and children. It expresses deep concern at restrictions on medical personnel, civil society, labour union members, journalists and media workers, and calls for the immediate release of all those detained arbitrarily. The Council calls for the military to exercise utmost restraint and emphasises that it is following the situation closely.​

The Security Council expresses its continued support for the democratic transition in Myanmar, and stresses the need to uphold democratic institutions and processes, refrain from violence, fully respect human rights and fundamental freedoms and uphold the rule of law...”​

The presidential statement is a step below a resolution but becomes part of the official record of the security council. The ambassador also added that the young people are the future of Myanmar and need to be protected.

37. The acting leader of Myanmar’s parallel civilian government, Mahn Win Khaing Than, who is in hiding along with most senior officials from the governing National League for Democracy Party, addressed the public via Facebook has promised to pursue a “revolution” to overturn the military government. The unceasingly violent tactics of the coup leaders will force the protestors to engage in an armed fight, as they now know that capture by the regime means death by murder in police custody. Mahn Win Khaing Than was appointed last week as acting vice president by representatives of Myanmar’s overthrown legislators, the Committee for Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), which is pushing for recognition as the rightful government.

38. South Korea will suspend defence exchanges with Myanmar and ban arms exports to the country after a military coup and violent suppression of pro-democracy protests, the foreign ministry said on 12 Mar 2021.The South Korean government would reconsider some unspecified developmental cooperation with Myanmar, but would continue projects that are directly linked to the livelihood of Myanmar citizens and humanitarian aid, the statement said.

39. As Simon Tay wrote, there is a need to avoid pre-conceived absolutes about right and wrong, and engage with Myanmar as it is, rather than as we would wish. To think of all the generals as genocidal, or else Beijing’s puppets is unhelpful.
(a) Few – even in the military – wish to return to the decades of inward-looking and autocratic government. Continuing economic engagement can complement and assist to improve the likelihood of political solutions within the country.​
(b) There are real geopolitical consequences to cutting all ties due to this latest coup. When Myanmar was sanctioned by the West, China’s influence grew to near-dominance; which is why cutting all contacts with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s regime is counter productive — but it also does not mean business as usual.​
(c) One reason the prior Thein Sein administration initiated reforms and opened up the country was the desire for non-China options and to court the West.​

40. There is precedent for ASEAN’s engagement with a military led government in Myanmar. When Myanmar sought admission into ASEAN, this was based on a principle of “constructive engagement”. This meant that interactions with the military government were not only to be functional but play a role in opening up mindsets and encourage progress towards peace. That approach can usefully be rebooted and expanded.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

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Coup leader Min Aung Hlaing said in a national TV address on Saturday he would "safeguard democracy", promising elections but giving no timetable.

State TV warned in a separate broadcast on Friday that people "should learn from the tragedy of earlier ugly deaths that you can be in danger of getting shot to the head and back".

More than 320 people have been killed in the suppression of protests since the coup on 1 February.
This was written in a news article earlier today, showing that the Tatmadaw has absolutely no regret about the hundreds of civillians killed by them. According to the Tatmadaw, it is all their own fault and they deserve to be shot.


But this day seems to be more bloody than expected, around 90 protesters lost their lives...

 

Sandhi Yudha

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|"The latest violence took the number killed in the suppression of protests in Myanmar since the 1 February coup to more than 400."|


The amount of people killed yesterday was not 90 but around 100.
In the video of this link below, you can see that the Tatmadaw just randomly shoot at normal people on the street.
The reason?
For fun? Of because they just can, and they are never wrong, but always right, invincible and untouchable?

A girl of 14 and one of 7 just shot dead.
A boy of 5 shot in the head.
A girl of 1 getting a rubber bullet in her eye.
Around 20 children are already killed.
But that's of course their own fault.....


 

Arji

New Member
Realistically, what else can be done outside a straight-up foreign intervention?

Other than Sanctions and Condemnations, is there a possibility of sewing discourse within the ranks of Tatmadaw? as OPSSG said, not all is looking forward to an isolated authoritarian rule. Perhaps through some incentives some officers may be persuaded to unseat the current head honcho of the armed forces? Surely, some of them can see that they're headed towards a dead end. Maybe then, the new leadership could be more reasonable to reach a compromise.

Whatever the case, I feel like nothing can be done without some kind of compromise with some of those on the other side, be it pardon or other means. A compromise deal will not be popular with the people of Myanmar, but in my opinion pragmatism should take the stage. The goal is to stop the violence, restore democracy if able, but more importantly preventing a full-fledge civil war, something that is a real possibility after the Tatmadaw conducted an airstrike on the Karen army. This issue has evolve into more than just a humanitarian crisis, and it cannot be allow to reach a catastrophe that could destabilize the entire region.
 

Sandhi Yudha

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Realistically, what else can be done outside a straight-up foreign intervention?

Other than Sanctions and Condemnations, is there a possibility of sewing discourse within the ranks of Tatmadaw? as OPSSG said, not all is looking forward to an isolated authoritarian rule. Perhaps through some incentives some officers may be persuaded to unseat the current head honcho of the armed forces? Surely, some of them can see that they're headed towards a dead end. Maybe then, the new leadership could be more reasonable to reach a compromise.

Whatever the case, I feel like nothing can be done without some kind of compromise with some of those on the other side, be it pardon or other means. A compromise deal will not be popular with the people of Myanmar, but in my opinion pragmatism should take the stage. The goal is to stop the violence, restore democracy if able, but more importantly preventing a full-fledge civil war, something that is a real possibility after the Tatmadaw conducted an airstrike on the Karen army. This issue has evolve into more than just a humanitarian crisis, and it cannot be allow to reach a catastrophe that could destabilize the entire region.
Yes, i am afraid foreign comments and condemnations will not have any effect.


Shooting at a funeral,....yes why not?

The amount of killed unarmed protesters and other civillians is now around 450 btw..
 

ngatimozart

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Yes, i am afraid foreign comments and condemnations will not have any effect.


Shooting at a funeral,....yes why not?

The amount of killed unarmed protesters and other civillians is now around 450 btw..
You are right WRT international pressure and condemnation having any influence on the Tatmadaw. They've been through that before and they have PRC and Russian tacit support. Both will veto any UNSC sanctions because it's in their interests to do so. After all PRC consider it a Cabinet reshuffle. I noted news video of the Tatmadaw celebrating Army day and military representatives, in dress uniform, from the PRC and Russia were present. That's a political statement by the PRC and Russian governments.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This's just my opinion, but I don't see big chances of large scale Civil War in Myanmar. If Tatmadaw can keep their tight control reign on Myanmar Military and Police, the chances of opposition to come out with effective Arms resistance will be very limited. While the ethnic arm rebellion is always there, and somehow I do suspect Military left pockets of ethnic rebel groups as part of their excuse for continuing Military controls on that area.

Strong United Military like it or not will keep maintaining status quo during civil uprising. We can see the results of Arab Spring. Egypt tight and united military manage to handle situations that neither Khadafi or Assad can do. Fracture Military control also became main factor on why Libya and Syria turn into Civil War while Egypt manage to squash down any potential civilian arms opposition.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

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This's just my opinion, but I don't see big chances of large scale Civil War in Myanmar. If Tatmadaw can keep their tight control reign on Myanmar Military and Police, the chances of opposition to come out with effective Arms resistance will be very limited. While the ethnic arm rebellion is always there, and somehow I do suspect Military left pockets of ethnic rebel groups as part of their excuse for continuing Military controls on that area.

Strong United Military like it or not will keep maintaining status quo during civil uprising. We can see the results of Arab Spring. Egypt tight and united military manage to handle situations that neither Khadafi or Assad can do. Fracture Military control also became main factor on why Libya and Syria turn into Civil War while Egypt manage to squash down any potential civilian arms opposition.
Agree.
The armed rebels can not do much more than they are doing now, small scale armed resistance.
And the civilians do not have acces to weapons and training.
Besides that, if the protesters are armed, it will give the Tatmadaw a good reason to go all out agains its own population, it will simply mow down the armed protesters and any bystanders.

There is actually not any solution for the Myanmarese people, they will achieve nothing, whatever they do.
Only a UN-intervention force willing to start a full-scale invasion and war, can defeat the Tatmadaw and return democracy to the people, but that will never happen.

The only thing other countries can do are sanctions like boycots and embargoes. Tourism is responsible for 10% of Myanmar's income and also garments, gems, oil and gas are important for the economy of Myanmar.
Of course china will fill up the holes left open by other countries, but at least it is not our money flowing to the Tatmadaw.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
course china will fill up the holes left open by other countries, but at least it is not our money flowing to the Tatmadaw.
China I do think will support Tatmadaw if they see them able to (in the end) keep to grip on Myanmar situation. One thing that not really shown on the news that come out, is what is the real extent on the unrest. If Tatmadaw manage to localise it only in few big cities and manage to hold the spread only to mostly rural area (if not mistaken the portion of Urban population in Myanmar still smaller than Rural/small cities), then it's just matter of time before they can hold check the spread of civil unrest fire.

Afterall, fire need fuel. Civil unrest fire need constant feed from most population. Civil unrest that mostly only fuel by young urban educated population, will be hard to keep maintain if the larger rural/small cities population don't joint to fuel them.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
The only sanctions that would work need to include some significant ones against the supporters of this regime as well. Unfortunately this won’t happen.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
sometimes wonder how the Indonesian Armed Forces are so willing to give up their power in 98, what kind of concession did they give them to not cling to power like the Tatmadaw did?
Like it or not, Indonesian do owed our two beloved Dictators Soekarno and Soeharto. Both willing to step down rather than prolonged potential horizontal conflicts. Both of them until their last lengths of their power still have large base supporters. Both of them fully capable to create prolong horizontal conflicts, even civil war. However we are lucky they're choosing stepping down. For me, both of them have more stateman mentality compared to the 5 Presidents after them.

Both of them manage being convince by the Army Brass and Political elites, that their time was up and encourage them to step down. Indonesia have dictators up until 1998, we never has collective military regime like Tatmadaw. We have Soekarno regime and Soeharto regime, and the power circle around both of them and not on a collective junta. Perhaps that's the difference.

One thing for sure, there's concession and compromise between Civilian Political circles and Military establishment. It's not easy, we went through 3 President (Habibie, Gus Dur, and Megawati) to reach that. That's why the economics situation after 1998 practically need more than 6 years up to SBY era to stabilize. All that part of finding Political compromise. You can't have stable economy if your Political situation not stable also.

Many analysts feel that Myanmar Military and their Civilian Opposition can find some kind of compromise before. However if Tatmadaw behaving like this, I suspect they don't find compromised. Thus when they lost in big margin during last election, they make a move before the Civilian Political circles can gather forces.
 
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CheeZe

Active Member
However if Tatmadaw behaving like this, I suspect they don't find compromised. Thus when they lost in big margin during last election, they make a move before the Civilian Political circles can gather forces.
It is coming across as the Tatmadaw acting to ensure it survives as a political entity. I suspect that they viewed the increasing popular support for a democratic system as an existential threat to their power, wealth and influence. Given enough time, the military would be reined in and new, young officers more loyal to the civilian government would replace the old ones. To nip that problem in the bud, they decided to simply remove the system of governance which was so popular. Now the people of Myanmar have no voice in government again.

WRT Indonesia - there was a clear dictator, which allows for a cult of personality. I have yet to see anyone name the general(s) who are in charge of the Tatmadaw policy. We continually refer to the entire organization since, I am led to believe, they are organized more like an oligarchy with a power & responsibility sharing scheme between the branches such that no one individual or branch becomes ascendant.
 

Sandhi Yudha

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A new report of Janes.
|" A rare sighting of the Chinese-made CH-3A tactical UAV over Mandalay has enabled Janes to confirm that it is in operational use in Myanmar following years of speculation."|

So Myanmar’s military junta has begun to use its unmanned aerial vehicles to support its operations against protest movements. Thanks to china they will be able to attack larger amounts of protesters in a more efficient and effective way.
 
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