The unstable situation in Myanmar.

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #41
At least 3 protesters have been killed today. This comes on top the three protesters who lost their lives earlier.

It looks like the Tatmadaw starts to become more violent.




Update:
The latest report from BBC shows us that it is worser than described in earlier reports.

Deaths were reported in several cities including Yangon, Dawei and Mandalay as police used live rounds and tear gas.

 
Last edited:

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update 9: More killed in violence

26. As shared by Sandhi Yudha earlier, at least 18 people died on 28 Feb 2021, said the United Nations human rights office, as Myanmar authorities cracked down on protests against the military coup. "Throughout the day, in several locations throughout the country, police and military forces have confronted peaceful demonstrations, using lethal force and less-than-lethal force,” said a statement from U.N. human rights office spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani. Europe has also gotten into the act, to express disapproval.
(a) On 26 Feb 2021, the Nordic countries held a meeting and even released a statement on situation in Myanmar that was delivered by Ambassador Anna Karin Eneström:​
“...The military coup is placing the peace process with the ethnic armed organizations at risk. Recently the ten ethnic groups that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement issued a powerful joint statement condemning the coup and called for immediate release of the political prisoners, including the reinstatement of State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. As a result of the coup, we are deeply concerned that achievements for national reconciliation and future peace made over the past years will be lost.​
We call for the military to ensure unrestricted humanitarian access to conflict areas and vulnerable populations, including in Rakhine state, where the humanitarian situation is particularly severe. Furthermore, the authorities in Myanmar have the responsibility to create the conditions on the ground that will make it possible for the Rohingya refugees and other displaced populations to return to Myanmar. We will continue to emphasize the importance of ensuring their safe, voluntary, dignified and sustainable return, in accordance with international standards.”​
(b) The U.N. special rapporteur, Tom Andrews, also released a statement that listed options for U.N. member states and the security council to take action. “As the military junta of Myanmar ratchets up its violence against the people, I believe it is imperative that the international community ratchet up its response,” Andrews said.​
(c) Singapore's Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan on 1 Mar 2021 called on Myanmar's military to stop the use of lethal force on civilians and the immediate release of State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and other political detainees.​

27. Foreign ministers of members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will hold a special meeting on 2 Mar 2021 to discuss the situation in Myanmar, Kyodo News reported (see also: ASEAN to hold foreign ministers meeting on Myanmar on March 2).
Indonesia has also urged fellow Asean member state Myanmar to follow democratic principles, as defined in the bloc's charter, amid the ongoing military coup over election fraud claims. "Indonesia calls for the observance of the principles of Asean Charter, among other things, adherence to the rule of law, good governance, the principles of democracy and constitutional government," the Indonesian Foreign Affairs Ministry wrote in a statement.

28. Constructive dialogue will be the preferred approach of ASEAN, India and China, but the likelihood of any tangible outcome is low. ASEAN and China are highly unlikely to agree to impose sanctions, given the strong mandate of non-interference within ASEAN and Myanmar’s special relationship with China and India.
(a) Just hours after the coup on 1 Feb 2021 Brunei issued a chairman’s statement on behalf of ASEAN calling for a ‘return to normalcy’, the partial democracy that characterised Myanmar’s political system before the coup. It is in ASEAN’s interests to keep open lines of communication with the Tatmadaw, and to use these channels to urge the army to return to its barracks post-haste – lest the current political instability lead to violence which sparks another humanitarian disaster, like that which saw 700,000 Rohingya flee Myanmar in 2017; “In engaging the junta, however, ASEAN risks legitimising the very coup that gives rise to these risks” said Aaron.​
(b) At the very least, American and European engagement with ASEAN is likely to be limited or downgraded, and could remain so until the result of the coup is reversed. The coup is thus the most serious threat to ASEAN centrality that the organisation has faced since its membership and role expanded following the Cold War.​
(c) Myanmar's Foreign Minister U Wunna Maung Lwin was also asked to attend the ASEAN meeting, according to a CGTN news report. I believe that this ASEAN meeting to put pressure on Myanmar's military is doomed to failure; as the regional organisation (like the United Nations and the Nordic countries) lacks leverage to push for meaningful change in the regime.​
 
Last edited:

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #44

Musashi_kenshin

Active Member
It is unbelievable, but yesterday 38 demonstrants were killed. The police just started to shoot on the civillians, 4 of the people killed are children.
It's perfectly believable. What's happening is exactly what I recently predicted if the military were not to switch sides. The security forces are in full oppression mode, and no doubt they have a bullet for every citizen. They're now apparently beating up volunteer medics. Why? Because they're helping the protesters who get injured. You don't do that if you're feeling conflicted about your role in what's happening.

I would like to be proven wrong, but I think it's increasingly clear the military will not go willingly. They will weather any peaceful protests irrespective of the economic consequences or numbers of dead civilians. Either the remaining protesters will eventually get scared and go home, or the public will have to resort to violence to try to overthrow the military.
 

CheeZe

Active Member
the public will have to resort to violence to try to overthrow the military.
No doubt that there are people who want to attempt a counter-coup. The problem I foresee is where they will get arms and equipment to wage that conflict. As others have mentioned, the various ethnic armed groups don't really see a need to jump in on either side. China likely won't want to supply insurgents. I don't see the Biden administration taking a strong stand when its agenda is being hamstrung domestically by a petty GOP. So, I'm not sure how the civilian population would have access to a sufficient supply of arms and equipment to (a) compete with the military and (b) continue to threaten them over a prolonged period of time.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #47
No doubt that there are people who want to attempt a counter-coup. The problem I foresee is where they will get arms and equipment to wage that conflict. As others have mentioned, the various ethnic armed groups don't really see a need to jump in on either side. China likely won't want to supply insurgents. I don't see the Biden administration taking a strong stand when its agenda is being hamstrung domestically by a petty GOP. So, I'm not sure how the civilian population would have access to a sufficient supply of arms and equipment to (a) compete with the military and (b) continue to threaten them over a prolonged period of time.
The other problem is that if the demonstrators/civilians start to use real weaponry like assault rifles, the Tatmadaw will (ab)use that and go all out, all brakes will be released. It will be a complete massacre with a lot of collateral damage, Tatmadaw do not give anything about human rights, so they are maybe even happy about it. Experienced rebel forces already can not defeat the Tatmadaw, let alone civilians/amateurs who just learn to shoot.
 

CheeZe

Active Member
The other problem is that if the demonstrators/civilians start to use real weaponry like assault rifles, the Tatmadaw will (ab)use that and go all out, all brakes will be released. It will be a complete massacre with a lot of collateral damage, Tatmadaw do not give anything about human rights, so they are maybe even happy about it. Experienced rebel forces already can not defeat the Tatmadaw, let alone civilians/amateurs who just learn to shoot.
Another concern which I just realized - I don't think anyone in Asia would want the Myanmar situation to develop into a Syria 2.0.
 

CheeZe

Active Member
Reuters Update:
Suu Kyi associate dies in custody, protests continue - YouTube

Civilian protests still growing strong despite increased violence from the military. The nun in the video, in particular, was very courageous to stand between police and protestors.

What I find interesting and pertinent to this discussion is the call by workers' unions for a prolonged country-wide strike with the aim of hurting the the economy and toppling the coup. I have no idea how that would work but it is an interesting idea from local business leaders.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #51
Reuters Update:
Suu Kyi associate dies in custody, protests continue - YouTube

Civilian protests still growing strong despite increased violence from the military. The nun in the video, in particular, was very courageous to stand between police and protestors.

What I find interesting and pertinent to this discussion is the call by workers' unions for a prolonged country-wide strike with the aim of hurting the the economy and toppling the coup. I have no idea how that would work but it is an interesting idea from local business leaders.
According to this newsreport, this is the same nun.
She begged the soldiers to not shoot on the demonstrants.
It is quite an impressive photo
 

pgclift

New Member
Exclusive: 'Shoot till they are dead': Some Myanmar police say fled to India after refusing orders (msn.com)

Not sure if this is a sign of cracks forming or just premature optimism. It makes me wonder also why the Tatmadaw isn't going whole hog with its own troops. Perhaps they fear similar cracks forming in the loyalty of their own troops?
Several days ago NHK News showed a clip of a Myanma Police Officer (disguised) stating that not only had some of his colleagues fled the country but that others had abandoned the police force and joined the protesters.

He then went on to say that some of the military had obtained police uniforms and were attacking the protesters under the guise of being police officers. NHK did not carry any corroborating reports to substantiate any of the officer's comments.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Several days ago NHK News showed a clip of a Myanma Police Officer (disguised) stating that not only had some of his colleagues fled the country but that others had abandoned the police force and joined the protesters.

He then went on to say that some of the military had obtained police uniforms and were attacking the protesters under the guise of being police officers. NHK did not carry any corroborating reports to substantiate any of the officer's comments.
Either of those claims wouldn't surprise me. The first because there will be police officers who have moral scruples about the putsch. Secondly, the military have a history of using methods illegal under international law, so army troops in police uniforms is no surprise.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Talking about Myanmar Junta, perhaps they don't care on the demonstration or uprising because they reside on this empty Capital. The access is restricted, thus they don't care what happens in Yangon or other cities. What uprising ? Everything calm in capital.

Perhaps this's why some government including Indonesia current administration dream to have separate " administrative capital ". No one will bother them there. Too far away from where people live.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
A series of articles on the military putsch.


It appears that the public haven't given up their opposition and that there appears to be opposition amongst the foreign service. There is also no real advance within the UN, which isn't unusual.
 

tonnyc

Active Member
Perhaps this's why some government including Indonesia current administration dream to have separate " administrative capital ". No one will bother them there. Too far away from where people live.
You are off-topic and is grossly misrepresenting the situation in Indonesia. I am reporting the post and will ask that that section is deleted. In the meanwhile, to correct the misrepresentation, here are some facts.

The plan for Indonesia's new capital foresees the eventual population to be in the 3 to 4.5 million people range as people move into the new city. At first the initial population is expected to be some 10,000, growing as more government offices are transferred to the new location. The number of government employees is expected to be low and the majority of the population will be regular folks moving in to try and make a living. That's the same process that caused Jakarta to grow to the current size. There is no plan on sequestering the new capital away from the people. Furthermore, look at the map. The planned new capital will be close to the cities of Samarinda and Balikpapan. From Balikpapan the estimated distance is 77 km. From Samarinda about 100 km. Likely closer if you count the distance from the suburbs instead of the centers. Samarinda has a population of 850,000, Balikpapan 650,000. They are expected to grow along with the new capital. The idea that the Indonesian government is dreaming that the people will stay away from the planned new capital only exist in your mind.

Cites for the numbers above can be provided if requested by the moderators.

Your opposition to the Indonesian capital relocation is noted and it is your political right to take that stance, but this thread is not the place to spread baseless speculation about the intention of the Indonesian government.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
@tonnyc I think that you may have taken @Ananda comments the wrong way . I wouldn't be overly concerned at all. Yes it's off topic but we all have done it. So I suggest that we leave things as they are and move on. Both of you are valued and respected posters on here and you both set good examples for other posters. I will cancel the report.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
are off-topic and is grossly misrepresenting the situation in Indonesia. I am reporting the post and will ask that that section is deleted. In the meanwhile, to correct the misrepresentation, here are some facts.
Seems you want some beef with me. Perhaps because I'm not Jokowi's fans and you're seems one. Can you understand sarcasm ?

I'll reponse your "opinion" in Indonesian army thread. Since this moving capital can also related to problem of regional Defense.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update 10: Even more killed in violence

29. Back to the topic, ASEAN has spoken – though not as forcefully as many might have wanted to see. But optimists in the regional grouping believe its message was clear enough to sink in with the military junta in Naypyidaw. Among the ASEAN countries, Indonesia might have seemed most eager in playing a mediating role on the outset of the crisis. However, its Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi’s attempted shuttle diplomacy which culminated in her trilateral meeting with Myanmar’s Wunna Maung Lwin and Thai Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai at Don Muang international airport on 24 Feb 2021 failed to produce any tangible result. Her earlier request to fly to Naypyidaw was also down. Meanwhile, leaders of Singapore and Malaysia have also been forceful and critical in their public statements on the violence in Myanmar.

30. Singapore has not recognised Myanmar's military leaders as the country's government, Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said on 2 Mar 2021. Balakrishnan also proposed that the U.N. secretary general’s special envoy on Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, be allowed to visit the country as soon as possible to meet all key stakeholders, including ousted leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi who he said should be released from detention. What I see is more PR from the Singapore Government but no effective action; when more than 70 people have been killed in Myanmar in widespread protests against the 1 Feb 2021 military coup.

31. No matter how much perfume is sprayed on BS, it still stinks the same. Calling on key stakeholders to come together and the immediate release of President Win Myint, State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and other political detainees is useless as all non-military stakeholders have a gun to their head.

32. Before talking about 10 years from now, parents of protestors are just praying for a safe return tonight. Disbanding Myanmar’s hated military risks destabilizing the country, in the same way that the Western invasions of Iraq and Libya and the subsequent disbandment of local military forces left security vacuums that were filled by Islamic State, said former Singapore foreign minister George Yeo.“[But] what happens five years, 10 years from now? I think there’s a fair chance that Myanmar will become Libya and Iraq,” the South China Morning Post reported Yeo saying.

33. I can’t believe China has characterized the Myanmar military’s takeover—internationally condemned as a coup—as a “major cabinet reshuffle.” Beijing and Moscow continued to defend the military regime at a recent special session of the UN Human Rights Council, insisting that the seizure of power from the democratically elected government was an internal affair.

34. The prospect of sabotage has been openly discussed by some protesters, who warn that they could blow up a pipeline supplying natural gas to China. They see China as being the junta’s main supporter, even though Beijing has been mildly critical of the coup in its public comments.
 
Last edited:
Top