The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[personaldesas]

Did I claim "to be independently minded"? I did claim, at least to a friend of mine, to be "on the side of reality".

Everyone thinks they’re on the side of reality, almost by definition. The real difference is whether one can even consider that their own perception might be wrong. People who can’t do that aren’t usually very insightful, worth debating or listening to.

 

[Hoover]

Would you asses that the economist has it more or less right in calling Ukraine a “Hybrid Regime”?

The Economist Democracy Index - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

A country at war is a very special point of view. Most democratic states have laws which restrict the freedom. Ukraine is not an exemplary flawless democracy, it has many problems in terms of corruption, oligarchy etc, but it is the most democratic state of all former Soviet republics behind the Moldavia and the Baltic states.

If the Ukraine is losing the war, it will not becoming a better demoracy.

 

[rsemmes]

rsemmes’s style is clearly provocative and polemical, more commentary than analysis. That’s fair enough. If it’s not your thing, you can always just ignore it. But there is no need to get all so worked up about it.

Or, I cannot obviate hypocrisy.
Every time Ukraine kills women and children is collateral damage, every time Russia kills women and children is a war crime (every time we kill women and children is "human shields used by the terrorists"); I cannot swallow that.

 

[rsemmes]

Everyone thinks they’re on the side of reality, almost by definition. The real difference is whether one can even consider that their own perception might be wrong. People who can’t do that aren’t usually very insightful, worth debating or listening to.

I don't think Zelenski is.
Ukraine (in broad terms) has no money, no weapons and no soldiers. Conditions (terms for a Peace Agreement) were better in Istanbul than now, in three years time they will be worse. There is nothing (to improve the terms) that Ukraine can do about it.
I cannot read any other reality.

 

[rsemmes]

Im not really sure how I can convince Putin to go home. Maybe a sternly worded letter to the UN ?

Unless you start (WW3) escalation. You don't know Russia's reaction, you don't know how we will react.
That would be a closer war.

 

[Redshift]

rsemmes’s style is clearly provocative and polemical, more commentary than analysis. That’s fair enough. If it’s not your thing, you can always just ignore it. But there is no need to get all so worked up about it.

Then there is no need for RSEMMES to say it, are you suggesting that critics of RSEMMES be censored?

 

[rsemmes]

I imagine that line was Nazi propaganda at the time. Thank you for drawing the parallel to current RU.
Achieve ? Not be a RU puppet state. Not be anchored to Putin. Is this surprising ?
I suspect we would all be better off if Putin choked to death on a ham sandwich tomorrow.

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/report/western-leaders-stopped-ukraine-from-a-peace-agreement-with-russia/

RU-MOD talking points.
What do you call it when Putin wants Zelensky out of office, UKR disarmed, and promise not to enter an alliance that would help defend it from Russia ? I call it Czechoslovakia 1938.
Lost ? Is UKR a free state at this time ? A UKR victory looks much different that a RU victory.
Sadly, the reality is that both sides are losing. Who is losing more ? Well, that I cannot say. RU can advance slowly at this time, and spend blood and money while its economy comes under ever more serious strain.
Thank you Vladimir Solovyov/rsemmes. More talking points from the Kremlin.
Zelensky is doing EXACTLY what he should be doing - asking for help. Its his job.
Intervention could mean many things, not just boots on the ground. How about the US sends UKR 100 Tomahawks, and UKR uses them to wipe 25% of RU refining capacity off the map ? No boots on the ground, no escalation (UKR already has cruise missiles).
Thank you Sergey Lavrov for once again fanning the fears of WW3, which only RU pushes. Yet all the while, it is RU who escalates. Who brought North Korean troops into this conflict ? Who is giving North Korea support and technology ? Who has instituted airspace violations, and a sabotage campaign in Europe ?
Let me get this straight ? Ukraine is NOT Russias war ? Really ? You can say this with a straight face ?
Sure, while fulfilling the maximalist RU demands. = Surrender.
Oh, here we go again, the sad violin sounds of someone pretending to care about UKR lives. Oh, how weepy ! So many tears ! Putin LOVES Ukraine ! He shows it every night with hundred of drones and missiles !
If Ukraine decides to stop fighting tomorrow, then so be it. Done. Over. Its up to them.
Of course both sides are selling a line of shit. I dont believe RU MOD any more than UKR MOD releases.

"I imagine that line..."
French, actually. But more from a soldier's perspective than anything else, not that the French Empire was happy with the British Empire. (Even less later on, but we all know that.)

"A Russian puppet..."
I cannot remember that line from Istanbul.
I'll try to use more words... What can Ukraine achieve to get a better position at the negotiating table?
Nothing.
We shouldn't confuse the initial statements with the actual terms of a peace agreement. (Use this for "surrender" too.)
Off topic.
Czechoslovakia in 1938 (Teschen?) or ethnic cleansing in 1945?

"Who is losing more?"
The not-under-strain half of Ukrainian economy?

"...asking for help."
Telling Trump what to do, in the Whitehouse. It seems that we disagree in that one.

"Intervention could mean many things..."
Reaction could mean many things. Why not 1.000 Tomahawks (Made-in-Ukraine)? Why not 75%? What can Ukraine do?
Nothing.

"Ukraine is NOT Russia's war?..."
I have a problem here.
Me: 'This is not our war '. Our, I live in UK, you can read NATO or EU/Western Europe. But, how can you read 'Russia'?
('We have a nuclear sub off your shore". Trump, not Lavrov. Yes, I know. This is not about submarines sailing tweeter.)

"Surrender..."
Again? It seems that you like easy lines. Again, I cannot remember that word from the Istanbul negotiations.

"...someone pretending".
I don't pretend, I don't care. (As I didn't care about how many children US killed in Panama or the British and French Empires in Suez.) Just another footnote in History. Now...
You were talking about a "serious intervention", it doesn't has to be even that serious to sit Zelenski at the table. That is a another possibility, again, it doesn't mean (your favourite word) surrender. The terms, now, will be harsher, we have to offer Russia a bigger carrot (than in Istanbul); Zelenski will take whatever we give because he depends on us, not on Russia.
Unless, of course, we are more interested in this war against Russia going on; to the last Ukrainian soldier.

"...both sides are selling a line..."
As I was saying, that (Ukrainian) is the line that Western Media is selling.
(We agree, again.)

 

[rsemmes]

Then there is no need for RSEMMES to say it, are you suggesting that critics of RSEMMES be censored?

Nothing personal.
I think that is what he is saying, but I am sure he will explain it with more words. (Cryptic, I've been called.)

 

[Hoover]

I don't think Zelenski is.
Ukraine (in broad terms) has no money, no weapons and no soldiers. Conditions (terms for a Peace Agreement) were better in Istanbul than now, in three years time they will be worse. There is nothing (to improve the terms) that Ukraine can do about it.
I cannot read any other reality.

Your reality? Russia was not able to beat Ukraine during the last 3.5 years, and yes, Ukraine depends on military aid from his supporters. Sp what? The Russians depends on the military aid from China, North Korea and Iran. And Istanbul was a show. Nobody gave the Urkaine any guarantees, and it is proofed that Russia don´t care about any treaties with the Ukraine.
The Ukraine puts Russia under great pressure with their attacks an the oil and gas industrie. They can do something to change the terms.

 

[rsemmes]

By the way...
The word "outrage" has been used, the international outrage about Ukraine blowing up a Russian dam? The outrage in Western Media? rtve has time to mention those balloons in Lithuania... The dam, didn't happen.

Edit.
More exactly: "The Russian Governor claims..."

 

[rsemmes]

Your reality? Russia was not able to beat Ukraine during the last 3.5 years, and yes, Ukraine depends on military aid from his supporters. Sp what? The Russians depends on the military aid from China, North Korea and Iran. And Istanbul was a show. Nobody gave the Urkaine any guarantees, and it is proofed that Russia don´t care about any treaties with the Ukraine.
The Ukraine puts Russia under great pressure with their attacks an the oil and gas industrie. They can do something to change the terms.

Maybe, you have noticed that I didn't mention how effective/ineffective Russia is and that, doesn't change the facts about Ukraine.
I think that you are using a bit too much of imagination when you say that "Russians depends on the military aid...", that is not what we read. "It is proof...", I think is just another rushed conclusion. There never was a final text because there never was an agreement in Istanbul.

If Ukraine (it doesn't have that capability) is able to put pressure... (I think Ukraine is annoying Russia, not "putting pressure", what, in itself, helps Russia in its fight against Ukraine. The easy line: Look at what they are doing to us!) That is a good point, another point would be what is Russia going to do under that pressure against Ukraine. Russia has the bigger guns, any insight into that?

 

[Hoover]

Maybe, you have noticed that I didn't mention how effective/ineffective Russia is and that, doesn't change the facts about Ukraine.
I think that you are using a bit too much of imagination when you say that "Russians depends on the military aid...", that is not what we read. "It is proof...", I think is just another rushed conclusion. There never was a final text because there never was an agreement in Istanbul.

If Ukraine (it doesn't have that capability) is able to put pressure... (I think Ukraine is annoying Russia, not "putting pressure", what, in itself, helps Russia in its fight against Ukraine. The easy line: Look at what they are doing to us!) That is a good point, another point would be what is Russia going to do under that pressure against Ukraine. Russia has the bigger guns, any insight into that?

You contradict yourself. Of course it is important to see of Russia ist effective/ineffective when you are compoaring it to Ukraine. And you want seriously claim, that Russia not depends on Chinese imports on military electronics etc? Really? And you think, that the Ukraine drone attacks on Russian oli/gas infrastructure is only "annoying" Russia? Really?

You are talking about imagination?

 

[personaldesas]

Then there is no need for RSEMMES to say it, are you suggesting that critics of RSEMMES be censored?

I can’t understand how you could possibly arrive at that conclusion. I said something along the lines of “I don't think this is helpful” and somehow you read it as “it should be censored.” That’s quite a leap.

 

[personaldesas]

A country at war is a very special point of view. Most democratic states have laws which restrict the freedom. Ukraine is not an exemplary flawless democracy, it has many problems in terms of corruption, oligarchy etc, but it is the most democratic state of all former Soviet republics behind the Moldavia and the Baltic states.

If the Ukraine is losing the war, it will not becoming a better demoracy.

I don’t disagree, and of course, any democratic ambitions aren’t helped by being invaded by an autocratic state, or in the worst cased, occupied by a foreign one.
That said, accurately assessing the current state of democracy still matters, even if we don't like the result. It shows what progress is needed and whether any is actually being made. From what I can tell, major parts of the Ukrainian population wants stronger democratic elements and some even a Western orientation, but that doesn’t erase the real problems that still need to be addressed.