I agree with your skepticism on the RU losses, but we have to factor in the Ukrainian losses, before we can make statements as to what they should have achieved. I would suspect that they would be very high too.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
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The key difference is that it's very clear what Ukraine accomplished with those losses. Not so clear for Russia.
I mean... this isn't really news. Russia had somewhere between 2500-3000 tanks in service pre-war. But also had many thousands more in storage. The war confirms this, as Russia has managed to pull buckets of T-80BVs and T-62Ms out of storage, and old T-72 variants have been seen moving too though none have hit the front line yet (presumably needing more repairs). Russia isn't out of tanks, in the sense that there aren't any left. But Russia has lost their more modern tanks in large numbers.
I've seen Khlopotov also state that UVZ has shifted from production of new tanks to primarily repairing and overhauling older ones, but then there's this recent visit to UVZ where shiny new T-90Ms can be seen...
Дмитрий Медведев посетил Уралвагонзавод
gurkhan.blogspot.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
And here's some T-90Ms doing trials before handover.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Военный Осведомитель
Видеокадры новейших Т-90М «Прорыв» («Объект 188М», ОКР «Прорыв-3») для ВС РФ форсирующих водную преграду в качестве испытаний, перед отправкой заказчику.
t.me
It's possible these are tanks that were already in the production cycle before the difficulties started and they're now being finished. But I suspect the T-90M production line is still running.
I don't think this is the question at all. I don't think Russia will get a peace deal in the spring unless they can do something very serious in the winter. I think the question is how Russia can possibly exit this war and I don't see an answer. Neither side appears ready to stop fighting.
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Right now, Russia's hopes are that Western Countries will stop funding Ukraine. There is hints of that but I think there is still willingness to fund Ukraine. I'm not sure if the Western Countries can support Ukraine at this intensity for another year straight. But, Russia can't support the war effort and their economy into 2024 either. Something has to give. My opinion is that there will be a clear decisive winner before there are negotiations.
Leftyhunter
Member
Putin can't be thrilled to death with the unfolding election results in the US nor with the Meloni government of Italy's policy on expanded military aid to Ukraine plus that of Spain and Germany. Also yes their always seems to be a new PM popping up on 10 Downing St but they all push military aid to Ukraine despite high energy prices. Yes natural gas prices are high but NG reservoirs are supposedly full with plenty of LNG freighters lined up outside West European ports. Meanwhile Russias best and brightest have sought greener pastures.
Leftyhunter
Leftyhunter
Member
Putin's inherent problem is he painted himself in a corner. How can Putin after a display of bread and circuses say "look everybody we just annexed four Ukrainian provinces from the evil neo Nazis in Kiev" and at the same time after heavy losses say "you know folks I might of over exaggerated a bit as we are going to give those lands back to the evil Nazi NATO satanic proxies".The key difference is that it's very clear what Ukraine accomplished with those losses. Not so clear for Russia.
I mean... this isn't really news. Russia had somewhere between 2500-3000 tanks in service pre-war. But also had many thousands more in storage. The war confirms this, as Russia has managed to pull buckets of T-80BVs and T-62Ms out of storage, and old T-72 variants have been seen moving too though none have hit the front line yet (presumably needing more repairs). Russia isn't out of tanks, in the sense that there aren't any left. But Russia has lost their more modern tanks in large numbers.
I've seen Khlopotov also state that UVZ has shifted from production of new tanks to primarily repairing and overhauling older ones, but then there's this recent visit to UVZ where shiny new T-90Ms can be seen...
Дмитрий Медведев посетил Уралвагонзавод
VK.com | VK
And here's some T-90Ms doing trials before handover.
VK.com | VK
Военный Осведомитель
Видеокадры новейших Т-90М «Прорыв» («Объект 188М», ОКР «Прорыв-3») для ВС РФ форсирующих водную преграду в качестве испытаний, перед отправкой заказчику.
It's possible these are tanks that were already in the production cycle before the difficulties started and they're now being finished. But I suspect the T-90M production line is still running.
I don't think this is the question at all. I don't think Russia will get a peace deal in the spring unless they can do something very serious in the winter. I think the question is how Russia can possibly exit this war and I don't see an answer. Neither side appears ready to stop fighting.
Leftyhunter
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Has there been any evidence of damage to one of the Ad. Mak. ships from the UAV attack ? One of the movies showed that one UAV closed to point blank distance before the video cut out. Unless this was a fake video, it appeared to be a detonation.
Leftyhunter
Member
If the Ukranian USV attack was ineffective wouldn't the Admiral Markova be out and about in the Black Sea showing itself to be undamaged. Oryx doesn't show it damaged yet it's not sailing in the Black Sea. Most likely the Admiral Markova will be under repairs for quite some time.
Leftyhunter
Latest U.S. military package for Ukraine announced today. Roughly $400 million worth of toys, most of which are older items, as the U.S. clears out its stockpile of obsolete weapons that are still plenty capable of causing massive damage to the Russian military, while giving Congress further reason the buy the U.S. military all the new toys it needs to stay 1.5-2 decades ahead of the Russian military in terms of capability of deployable assets...
- Undisclosed number of HAWK Missiles, intended for the 4 HAWK air defense systems Spain is sending.
- 4 Avenger air defense systems, with an undisclosed number corresponding stinger missiles.
- Undiclosed number of GMLRS (HIMARS Ammunition) for HIMARS donated to Ukraine.
- 21,000, 155mm artillery rounds.
- 500, 155mm Excalibur, GPS guided artillery rounds.
- 10,000, 120mm Mortar rounds.
- 400 Grenade launchers.
- Demolition equipment / obstacle clearing equipment.
- Cold weather gear.
- 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition.
- 100 HMMWVs.
Notable elements of this package include the high mobility Avenger systems, intended to counter Russian CAS and loitering munitions. We're seeing a sizeable effort by the West to replace the quickly deteriorating Soviet era air defenses that Ukraine is likely running low on ammunition for, and that Russians have had more success at destroying lately with their Lancet drones, and other guided strikes. Furthermore, the United States has been bulk sending HMMWVs to Ukraine for some time now. The Americans are in the process of retiring theirs and they have more than 100,000 of them in service, in a variety of variants. The 3 most common variants being sent to Ukraine now feature one of the following. 1. 50mm M2 Browning Machine Gun, ideal for urban fighting and chewing up Russian infantry. 2. Grenade Launchers, ideal for high speed offensive operations, against infantry and other lightly armored, Russian targets. 3. TOW anti-armor systems, designed as a relatively cheap and effective system (similar to Stugna-P) for destroying expensive, and increasingly rare, modern Russian tanks.
It's amazing the "bang-for-their-buck" the USA is getting. They've basically helped the Ukrainians destroy a significant portion of Russia's best modern army assets and personnel (T-90's, modern BMP's, VDV, artillery etc), and they've done it sending only things that they are in the process of replacing. M777's are being fully phased out in favour of new M109's and HIMARs. HMMWs are fully being replaced by the much more capable Oshkosh JLTV (U.S. is procuring more than 50,000 of them). Even the HIMARs GMLRS ammunition they are sending is obsolete and is being used up to be replaced by an extended range, more capable variant... This is best deal the U.S. will ever get to turn the Russian Army into shambles for a generation.
Meanwhile, France is sending 6 additional CAESAR 155mm howitzers to Ukraine, per their Minister of the Armed Forces, bringing the total number committed to Ukraine to 24. These 6 will essentially come from existing export contract to another NATO member, who will wait a little longer to get theirs. A similar agreement was made with Morocco earlier in the conflict, when France sent 12 CAESARS that had finished production and were intended for them.
- Undisclosed number of HAWK Missiles, intended for the 4 HAWK air defense systems Spain is sending.
- 4 Avenger air defense systems, with an undisclosed number corresponding stinger missiles.
- Undiclosed number of GMLRS (HIMARS Ammunition) for HIMARS donated to Ukraine.
- 21,000, 155mm artillery rounds.
- 500, 155mm Excalibur, GPS guided artillery rounds.
- 10,000, 120mm Mortar rounds.
- 400 Grenade launchers.
- Demolition equipment / obstacle clearing equipment.
- Cold weather gear.
- 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition.
- 100 HMMWVs.
Notable elements of this package include the high mobility Avenger systems, intended to counter Russian CAS and loitering munitions. We're seeing a sizeable effort by the West to replace the quickly deteriorating Soviet era air defenses that Ukraine is likely running low on ammunition for, and that Russians have had more success at destroying lately with their Lancet drones, and other guided strikes. Furthermore, the United States has been bulk sending HMMWVs to Ukraine for some time now. The Americans are in the process of retiring theirs and they have more than 100,000 of them in service, in a variety of variants. The 3 most common variants being sent to Ukraine now feature one of the following. 1. 50mm M2 Browning Machine Gun, ideal for urban fighting and chewing up Russian infantry. 2. Grenade Launchers, ideal for high speed offensive operations, against infantry and other lightly armored, Russian targets. 3. TOW anti-armor systems, designed as a relatively cheap and effective system (similar to Stugna-P) for destroying expensive, and increasingly rare, modern Russian tanks.
It's amazing the "bang-for-their-buck" the USA is getting. They've basically helped the Ukrainians destroy a significant portion of Russia's best modern army assets and personnel (T-90's, modern BMP's, VDV, artillery etc), and they've done it sending only things that they are in the process of replacing. M777's are being fully phased out in favour of new M109's and HIMARs. HMMWs are fully being replaced by the much more capable Oshkosh JLTV (U.S. is procuring more than 50,000 of them). Even the HIMARs GMLRS ammunition they are sending is obsolete and is being used up to be replaced by an extended range, more capable variant... This is best deal the U.S. will ever get to turn the Russian Army into shambles for a generation.
Release
www.defense.gov
Meanwhile, France is sending 6 additional CAESAR 155mm howitzers to Ukraine, per their Minister of the Armed Forces, bringing the total number committed to Ukraine to 24. These 6 will essentially come from existing export contract to another NATO member, who will wait a little longer to get theirs. A similar agreement was made with Morocco earlier in the conflict, when France sent 12 CAESARS that had finished production and were intended for them.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
This war already exeed 6 month period that many analysts (specially in capital markets) believe as the limit of each sides ability to finance the war. Calculation in beginning of the war on how far the attrition rate each side can afford, practically already reach beyond that.
Both Russian and Western calculation I believe already miss each side level of sustainment. This is after all already become attrition proxy war between Russia and Collective West since April.
Russia now seems trying to hold whatever area they are able to defend, while grinding Ukranian offensive as much as possible. While Washington especially after this midterm election results (which shown better Democrat results then expected), going to stay on their strategy to pour more assets to Ukraine on pushing Russia to brink of collapsing.
However that's what Washington and Collective West hope. Always the West mainstream media talk how their assets now destroying Russian assets, but not showing how far Russian assets destroying them. Only 'independence' Western sources that seems calculating Western assets losses.
West hope Russian collapsing before talk, Russian going to grind the offensive as much as possible to force West to talk. As for Ukrainian blood, well it will keep pouring just like Russian ones. However it is out of calculation, as this is already West-Russian proxy war.
I have absolutely no doubt that Russian losses in men and material have been horrendous and that the Russians are facing huge problems. What I'm skeptical and cynical about is the various reports we've been getting these past few months about how the Russians are supposedly on their last legs; are running out of various things; have troops which are utterly demoralised and unable to perform; how corruption was such a factor; etc. Listening to all these reports it's a wonder that anotherTannenberg hasn't occurred and that the Ukrainians aren't in Russia yet with Russian troops establishing a defence line on the outskirts of Omnsk and handing out Mosin Nagants to civilians.
During the early part of the invasion the message portrayed was that TB2s, Javelin, NLAW, Stinger and other things would give the Ukrainians an edge and shape the battlefield. Then it was M-77s and HIMARS; now it's NASAMS and other things which if we read the fine print is supposed to ground the Russian air force.
They have done a far much better/competent job controlling/shaping the narrative. They're very selective in what news they allow to be filtred out; i.e. the only mention of Ukrainian losses is what they choose to reveal and the image they portray is always about well equipped well motivated and effective Ukrainian troops against badly equipped demoralised ill trained Russians. Cant blame the Ukrainians; they're in an existential war and have to do whatever it takes.
It also helps that the Ukrainians receive outside assistance [some statements released by the Brit MOD and by NATO and the EU sound like they were drafted by Zelensky] and subconsciously we'd like to believe that because they're the good chaps; Ukrainian reporting is much more accurate and truthful compared to what comes out from the Russians.
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Leftyhunter
Member
The Russian military industrial complex relies on Western components for even their simple Orlan-10 drone. The Russians have been forced to import Iranian made drones and soon ballistic missiles. The Russians can't even replace their losses in artilery shells and must import them from North Korea. The Russians are deploying the sixty plus year old T-62 because they can manufacture any or very few more modern varients. The West can and so far is grinding down the Russian Army in terms of material losses.
Leftyhunter
Leftyhunter
Member
Actually Separatist forces have been issued Mosin - Nagent rifles vs AK-47s which are sixty US years old. Russian Mobiks have shown rusted out AK-47s that they have been issued. Russia is supposedly the world's number two military power invading the world's 22nd most powerful military yet they have been retreating for months.
Leftyhunter
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Right, I know you are new here, so debating whether oryx shown equal losses toward both sides, or more bias toward Russian ones, already debates in this forum for long time. So I don't want to debate some point bases on oryx only as it is moot and pointless.
They're grinding each other. Whoever that can sustain more will win. That's how the war of attrition fought. Anyway if only based on Western sources talking on Russian losses and available level of Russia inventory, Zelensky's supposedly already sitting in Kremlin and not Kyiv.
This war can still work out to grinding stalemate lines, or one sides collapsing. Based on collective West calculation only in their media report of losses, Russia should be collapsing in August. Unable to sustain Ukraine offensive under full support of mighty collective west assets and supplies.
What is most shocking is that the United States and the West have managed to help Ukraine achieve a messy stalemate, using mostly older technology (intelligence assets aside) that are widely obsolete by Western standards. Not a single modern Western IFV has been sent to Ukraine. Not a single modern Western tank has been sent to Ukraine. Not a single modern Western aircraft has been sent to Ukraine. Not a single modern American Howitzer has been sent to Ukraine (French, German and Polish Howitzers have). Not a single modern Western cruise missile has been sent to Ukraine.
The reality is that the West is sending Ukraine wearhouses full of obsolete tech, and the Ukrainians are using it (along with what they already had) to destroy the Russian army's best stuff, and kill / badly injure almost all of their best, soldiers and marines... Not to mention the obvious experience among pilots that they've lost to this point.
The real story of this conflict is not what the West has sent to Ukraine. The real story is how relatively little modern equipment they've sent, and how much the Ukrainians have been able to achieve against a military "Superpower".
Imagine if the West decided tomorrow that they were going to send the following over the next few months...
1000 LAV / Stryker IFVs
1000 HMMVWs
500 Leopard Tanks
500 Abrams Tanks
100 M777 Howitzers
200 Modern 109 Howitzers
25 CAESAR Howitzers
25 Panzerhaubitze 2000
25 HIMARS
50 MIM-104 Patriot Batteries
500,000 155mm artillery rounds
5000 Excalibur 155 GPS rounds
10,000 GMRLS
5000 AMRAAM Missiles
5000 Hellfire Missles
2500 Cruise Missiles
50,000,000 rounds of smalls arms ammo
500 TOW Launchers and Missiles
5000 Javelins
5000 NLAWs
10000 AT4s
That's just a small sample of what the West could send if they really wanted to put the screws to Russia and cause the Russian Army serious problems. It would BARELY degrade NATO's fighting ability to send all of that. A drop in the bucket for the USA. Replaceable for the Western Europeans, within approximately 18 months. It would take time to train the Ukrainians on all of that equipment, but it would be overwhelming for Russia's largely obsolete equipment. I didn't even mention sending the Ukrainians Apache helicopters and Eurocopters, nor F-16's, F-18's, or Gripen's, all of which would take much longer to train pilots on, but all of which would cause the VKS substantial issues, when integrated with the air defense the West is sending, despite being, you guessed it... Obsolete compared to what the West would not send.
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Leftyhunter
Member
Not sure about your points. Oryx does indeed show Russian video and photo cottage of Ukranian losses. Russia has a military budget and population of about three times that of Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men of military age have fled abroad. Russia was drafting men up to age 60 even intialy with physical disabilities. Western mitary aid to Ukraine still doesn't match the amount of money the Russian military is budgeted.
The wives of Russian Mobiks are crying about their menfolk getting slaughtered . Russian forces have retreated from thousands of square kilometers of Ukranian territory so one side is doing better then the other hand it's not Russia. It's not the goal of the Ukranians to sieze Russian territory so no the Ukranians won't invade Moscow.
Leftyhunter
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #5,656
There is a lot to unpack here. I think some of what you say is very misleading (for example you claim not a single modern American howitzer, implying the M-777 isn't modern). And some of these things are expensive to send, difficult to maintain, and have a much higher training time associated with them. Not to mention that Russia is routinely knocking out Ukrainian tanks. Would it be wise to send something to Ukraine that Russia could acquire? Last but not least is the question of where all of this would come from. 50 Patriot batteries? Is there a warehouse full of them somewhere? 500k 155mm rounds? Ukraine has already received more then that.... 500 Lepards? More then are in service with the entire Germany army? 1000 Humvees? Again I suspect Ukraine has already received close to if not over that... the entire list reads like fanboy nonsense. Some of the things you list are a "drop in a bucket". Some are not. Some could be used relatively quickly, some could not. I believe western military aid is structured intelligently to support Ukraine's war effort at what is deemed an acceptable cost, and in the way most relevant to the battle being fought, unlike the random wishlist you've got here.
I was under the distinct impression that no one side had a monopoly on death and suffering; irrespective of which side has the upper hand.
Well thanks for the update but I'm sure you know what I was driving at. BTW as recently as a few months ago there were pics of Ukrainians with Maxim machine guns but the issue of obsolete stuff still in use wasn't the focus of the discussion was it now...
Something we're all aware of and something not in dispute but thanks for pointing it out. I'm also unaware of Russian prior to the invasion being labelled as the ''world's number two military power''; one of the world's leading powers maybe but the ''world's number two military power''?
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The reality is that not all of the kit is obsolete and that even if it was; doesn't necessarily mean it has no utility.
For me the narrative is that despite all the support provided and all the limitations the Russian face; they're still in the fight and look set to be in the fight for quite a while more. Alas I don't have the services of and Oracle or a clairvoyant so I'll just adopt a wait and see approach with regards to how this all ends. What I won't do is just on the ''Russia is weak; has troop badly trained and demoralised; is on its last legs, is running out of missiles; etc, etc, and ''thus it will collapse''; bandwagon.
I'm sorry is this a monologue about what the West has sent; will send and what it can send but hasn't? Because if it is I'm pretty sure everyone here is well aware of the narrative by this stage.
Then instead of pussyfooting they should just get it over and done with.
If we want to talk about what ifs; ''imagine'' if Russia had gone in fully expecting a tough fight; had fully mobilised; had a political leadership which was not living in gagaland and had spent the past few years equipping and preparing the army to fight a high intensity protracted war in the 2nd largest country in Europe rather than short wars.
The M777 is not already almost 20 years old. The modern American howitzer is the M109A7, which the Americans are quickly procuring, while upgrading their M109A6's to the newest standard. The M777 served its role, but the Americans are moving on from it as quickly as they can produce more M109A7's. A 20 year old weapon is not modern by American Standards.
As for Leopard tanks, there are hundreds in storage, around the world. Between 2A4, 2A5, and 2A6 variants, the West could cobble together 500 of them if they had the actual desire to defeat Russia. Germany has a couple hundred active and a couple hundred in storage. Spain has a couple hundred active, and more in storage. Norway, Poland, Portugal, Turkey, Greece, The Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, etc.... They all have them in storage and significant quantities could be cobbled together.
The Americans have more than 1,100 Patriots. If they wanted them to be sent to Ukraine, they could make it happen. They could take them from a variety places where they are currently operational. Some of the assets that they are currently defending could easily receive other air defense systems instead. 50 is less than 5% of what they have.
1000 Humvees with TOW's, 50. CAL and grenade launchers would be a drop in the bucket for the USA. They have more than 100,000 Humvees and they're replacing almost all of them with their Oshkosh JLTVs. The USA has already announced around 1000 of them to Ukraine in packages and the Ukrainians are putting them to good use. 1000 more would retrofit several more battalions of high mobility infantry and keep the pressure on the Russians to keep up in the deployment of assets... You create teams of them with TOW missiles and Javelin armed soldiers in the Turret mount, hunting Russian tanks and quality IFV's. A cheap and effective trade off for the Ukrainians.
Of course the influx of Western weapons into Ukraine is hampered by the speed of training. You would, obviously, have to phase in this material over the course of months. You'd also have to set up additional training camps in Europe to selectively train Ukrainians how to use these weapons in mass quantities. It's highly doable, however. Europeans are already slated to train North of 25,000 Ukrainians outside of Ukraine in Q4 2022 and throughout 2023. Sending them back, gradually, with the above weapons / systems wouldn't be particularly hard.
Let's say the NATO / EU spends a collective $100-$125 Billion U.S dollars between tomorrow and the end of 2023. I'm talking the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Britain, South Korea, the entire EU and the Scandinavian countries that are about to join NATO. Do you think that's a high price to pay to effectively neuter the Russian Army for a generation and deeply hurt the Russian economy along the way? That's the best deal they're ever going to get, without putting their military personnel in harm's way.
All it requires is the political desire to make it happen. If you follow the inventories and production capacity of the countries that form the alliance that is currently supplying Ukraine, you'd realize that the above list I posted is not far fetched, rather, a substantial logistical hurdle. The West has plenty enough equipment / production capacity to make Russia's life miserable, despite all the bellyaching about Western military inventories.
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Hmmm, when was that? As far as I am aware the PRC is the world's #2 military power and has been probably since say 2015 - 17. It is quite feasible that it could overtake the US in first spot in a few years time, if not sooner.
The CCP/PRC PLAN (Peoples Liberation Navy) is larger than the USN and has more modern ships. That excludes the Peoples Maritime Militia, the Chinese Coast Guard, and other various militias. Russia has 20 times the amount of nukes than the PRC and the VMF sub fleet is probably the second most numerous in the world, after the North Korean sub fleet, and the probably the most advanced and well rounded. It has subs that the USN, RN, PLAN, & Marine Nationale dream about. The sub fleet has always been the Russian strongest military capability. Go have a look at H I Sutton's website Covert Shores and his YouTube channel. He is arguably one of the leading international authorities on submarines.