The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Latest reports I've seen are that the Russians have said they have withdrawn from Lyman. No reports of numbers of prisoners.

There is apparently still fighting on the eastern outskirts. But it looks like a withdrawal in progress.

Ukrainian column gets hit near Yampol', possibly footage from the 29th.

Telegram: Contact @greatrussia1

t.me

Ukrainian forces at the entrance to Liman.

ZERGULIO

Укронацисты на въезде в Лиман вешают свою жовто-блакитную тряпку.

t.me

MilitaryMaps | Z

❗️Красный Лиман ★ Опубликованы видеокадры установки флага Украины на стеле на въезде в Красный Лиман со стороны Дробышево (ВИДЕО) ⇢ https://t.me/mig41/20947 @militarymaps [место указано точно]: militaryMaps.info/mark/id685034 https://militaryMaps.info?lat=49.0120349&lng=37.7721587&z=12&t=3

t.me

Russian artillery fires near Liman.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Артиллерия "️тважных" ведет огонь по врагу под Красным Лиманом Бойцы группировки "О" с помощью артиллерии уничтожили передовой командный пункт нацистов на Лиманском направлении. #эксклюзив с фронта t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Meanwhile Russian MoD acknowledges a withdrawal forced by the threat of encirclement.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[seaspear]

There is apparently still fighting on the eastern outskirts. But it looks like a withdrawal in progress.

Ukrainian column gets hit near Yampol', possibly footage from the 29th.

Telegram: Contact @greatrussia1

t.me

Ukrainian forces at the entrance to Liman.

ZERGULIO

Укронацисты на въезде в Лиман вешают свою жовто-блакитную тряпку.

t.me

MilitaryMaps | Z

❗️Красный Лиман ★ Опубликованы видеокадры установки флага Украины на стеле на въезде в Красный Лиман со стороны Дробышево (ВИДЕО) ⇢ https://t.me/mig41/20947 @militarymaps [место указано точно]: militaryMaps.info/mark/id685034 https://militaryMaps.info?lat=49.0120349&lng=37.7721587&z=12&t=3

t.me

Russian artillery fires near Liman.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Артиллерия "️тважных" ведет огонь по врагу под Красным Лиманом Бойцы группировки "О" с помощью артиллерии уничтожили передовой командный пункт нацистов на Лиманском направлении. #эксклюзив с фронта t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Meanwhile Russian MoD acknowledges a withdrawal forced by the threat of encirclement.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

For a few days there have been reports of encirclement of the soldiers in Lyman and that the only way out was via a road without concealment from artillery
Russia will have to ask Ukraine to allow troops out of “Lyman cauldron” - advisor to Zelensky's office chief (ukrinform.net) Russia Withdraws Forces From Lyman In Major Victory For Ukraine (rferl.org)
Ukraine Situation Report: Russian-Occupied City Of Lyman Falls (thedrive.com)
Is it accurate to suggest that Russian forces were allowed to leave largely unhindered after originally not being allowed to withdraw ?

 

[Feanor]

For a few days there have been reports of encirclement of the soldiers in Lyman and that the only way out was via a road without concealment from artillery
Russia will have to ask Ukraine to allow troops out of “Lyman cauldron” - advisor to Zelensky's office chief (ukrinform.net) Russia Withdraws Forces From Lyman In Major Victory For Ukraine (rferl.org)
Ukraine Situation Report: Russian-Occupied City Of Lyman Falls (thedrive.com)
Is it accurate to suggest that Russian forces were allowed to leave largely unhindered after originally not being allowed to withdraw ?

I don't think it is. I think they had to fight their way out with significant casualties. It's not actually clear how firm Russia's front line is even now, east of Liman.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its third phase.

First phase - Blitz into Kyiv and every major city, on multiple fronts, with massive air and sea elements. Utter failure.
Second phase - Consolidation in a strip single that encompasses eastern Ukraine and a slow offensive along entire front. Limited success including capture of several strategic areas.
Third phase - Defense of multiple strategic points. So far, a limited failure.

Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its third phase - analysis

This third phase includes mobilizing Russian troops in an effort to hold onto territory it has taken.

www.jpost.com

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Third phase - Defense of multiple strategic points. So far, a limited failure.

I wonder what the next phase would be. Fortify Crimea and the pocket of eastern Ukraine they held before the start of the invasion, in the hope they don't get totally defeated?

The war still has a way to go, but so far Russia's plans have all failed. They're barely holding on to Plan C, and if Kherson falls they'll probably have to move on to Plan D.

 

[STURM]

Would We Do Better? Hubris and Validation in Ukraine - War on the Rocks

The hapless Russians are flailing in Ukraine. Their poorly prepared, unprofessional soldiers are incapable of modern combined arms warfare. Even if

warontherocks.com

Although this was written months ago the points made are still valid and thought provoking. The writer challenges the assumptions that the Russians did badly because they aren't like "us" and the Ukrainians have done well because they're like "us".

"What if, however, the analysts are seeing the lessons from Ukraine incorrectly, through lenses refracted by their own biases and hubris? What if the key variable is not the professionalism of the Russian military, but the nature of this war?"

"This new reality renders those criticizing the Russians not only wrong but dangerous. They are clinging to a doctrine that may be completely outdated in the current operational environment. That they persist in the view that Russian incompetence is mostly due to untrained and poorly motivated soldiers, led by corrupt and incompetent leaders, gives them a comfortable answer that does not invalidate their expertise or current practices"

"These experts also offer comforting conclusions: The good guys, who look like us, are beating the bad guys, with our help. It is a righteous war. We would do just fine. These are also dangerous conclusions, from two perspectives.

"First, they validate current U.S. approaches without looking beyond first-order explanations for Russian inadequacies to learn from them. In the parlance of how the U.S. military parses things — doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership, people, facilities, and policy — the Russian military is similar in most of these areas to the U.S. military with two glaring exceptions — their obvious deficiencies in leadership and people. This shows the validity of our doctrine, organizations, training, and materiel — both on hand and being developed for competition and potential conflict with China and Russia. There’s no need to look behind these doors if the real problem is people and leaders."

"As it did for Russia, it could happen to us, and we need to fully understand what “it” is"

As Michael Kofman keeps reminding us; it's still early days and there's a lot we don't know. He also points out that it would be a mistake to assume the U.S. army - an army superior in various areas compared to Russia's - would fare better.

As for Russian plans; I can't see them doing anything but to try and hold what ground they have for the next few months until things improve for them. They've lost the initiative.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I wonder what the next phase would be. Fortify Crimea and the pocket of eastern Ukraine they held before the start of the invasion, in the hope they don't get totally defeated?

The war still has a way to go, but so far Russia's plans have all failed. They're barely holding on to Plan C, and if Kherson falls they'll probably have to move on to Plan D.

I believe there's only a certain capacity to which Ukraine can defeat Russia. Pushing it into smaller areas certainly doesn't improve Ukraine's tactical superiority as it means Russia can defend few areas better.
Given Ukraine's desire to liberate its territories and nothing beyond it, we might see 2014-era artillery exchanges being a common occurrence, but along the actual Russia-Ukraine border and not Donbass.
In that situation, Russia would likely have some superiority, due to a higher capacity to produce war material.

 

[vikingatespam]

UKR forces have entered Torske.

Ukrainian military in Torske, east to Lyman Luhansk - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Ukrainian military in Torske, east to Lyman. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health...

liveuamap.com

I wonder how long they can keep this tempo up.

Supposedly there is a UKR armored attack in the Kherson region, but Im trying to corroborate that.

Ukrainian military in Zolota Balka village of Kherson region Kherson - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Ukrainian military in Zolota Balka village of Kherson region. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons...

liveuamap.com

 

[Feanor]

UKR forces have entered Torske.

Ukrainian military in Torske, east to Lyman Luhansk - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Ukrainian military in Torske, east to Lyman. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health...

liveuamap.com

I wonder how long they can keep this tempo up.

Supposedly there is a UKR armored attack in the Kherson region, but Im trying to corroborate that.

Ukrainian military in Zolota Balka village of Kherson region Kherson - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Ukrainian military in Zolota Balka village of Kherson region. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons...

liveuamap.com

I can confirm. There's a Ukrainian attack on the Krivoy Rog axis that has gained some ground.

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2022/10/02/20221002152407-be3b1451.jpg

 

[vikingatespam]

Deep State Map is now showing the armored push towards Dudchany, along the Dnepr. UKR is finally breaking loose in Kherson ?

Supposedly Strelkov tweeted the same, but I would like to see confirmation. I dont place much faith in a single twitter.

@vikingatespam How about a link to said map so that the rest of us can judge for ourselves.

Ngatimozart.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa-Krivoy Rog.

A rare 2B26 Grad firing in Kherson region. A handful of these Kamaz-based Grads were delivered a while ago.

ЖИВОВ Z

Эксклюзивные кадры работы русской артиллерии на Херсонсом направлении. Триста тридцать три! @zhivoff

t.me

There is reportedly a failed Ukrainian attack at Ternovie Pody, with 2 POWs and a destroyed BMP. We can also see a damaged BMP-2, but I suspect it's Russian. Ukrainian BMP-2 sightings are rare, while in Russia it's the most common IFV. It's also painted in standard Soviet green, while Ukraine typically repaints their vehicles.

Народная милиция ДНР

ВС РФ и подразделения мобрезерва НМ ДНР совместно отбили атаку ВСУ под н.п. Терновые Поды – противник понёс тяжёлые потери, захвачены пленные и трофеи. ВСУ продолжают безуспешные попытки продвижения на Херсонском направлении. В районе н.п. Терновые Поды Николаевской области противник бросил...

t.me

Another Ukrainian attack took place at Pravdino where it also failed with losses. We can see what appear to be Ukrainian MBTs and BMPs getting hit.
Russian strikes, somewhere in the south.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Кровавый провал ВСУ на Херсонщине и кураторы из армии США - показания пленного ▪️16 сентября ВСУ силами двух рот 28 бригады совершили реверсивное контрнаступление в районе Правдино Херсонской области, в ходе него нацисты потеряли более 120 человек, 7 танков и 13 БМП. В плен попали 5 военных...

t.me

I believe this shot is also from Pravdino. We can see a destroyed BMP (1?) in the back, a destroyed BMP-2 in the front, and a Ukrainian Novator armored car. I suspect all vehicles are Ukrainian.

ПТСР TEAM Community

Бойцы подразделения ВДВ и металлолом наступавших ВФУшников. Южный фронт.

t.me

More footage of the failed attack at Pravdino. You can see the same groupings of destroyed vehicles that we saw above.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

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vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Эксклюзив из Херсона. Уничтоженная техника ВСУ на месте боя в Правдино. @milinfolive

t.me

ANNA NEWS

Подбитая военная техника ВСУ в Правдино в Херсонской области. Источники: @rsotmdivision @anna_news

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

I think this is also Pravdino.

ПТСР TEAM Community

Помните как мы мучительно собирали на коптер нашему товарищу из ПТСР team? Сейчас он любезно предоставил фото снятые с воздуха того самого побоища ВФУшной бронегруппы. Южный фронт.

t.me

A BMP-2 and BTR-3 captured after a failed Ukrainian attack.

Oleg Blokhin

Трофейная украинская техника, захваченная вследствие провального наступления ВСУ на одном из участков Николаево-Криворожского направления. Солдат ВСУ и наёмников-иностранцев гонят, словно на убой. 120 трупов за считаные часы боя, и это не говоря о раненых и пленных. Среди погибших — граждане...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Трофейная украинская бронетехника, которая не доехала до Херсона. https://t.me/Oleg_Blokhin/57609

t.me

ВЕСТИ КРЫМ

Трофейную украинскую технику захватили подразделения ВДВ на Николаево-Криворожском направлении Подразделения ВДВ начали изучать и восстанавливать образцы украинской военной техники, которую боевики потеряли в ходе попыток прорвать оборону армии России на Николаево-Криворожском направлении. Как...

t.me

A destroyed Husky TSV, Kherson region. Unclear if one of the ones we've seen previously or another one taken out.

Dambiev

Еще один уничтоженный британский бронеавтомобиль "Хаски" на Херсонском направлении.

t.me

Allegedly a Ukrainian team trying to cross the Dnepr and getting hit.

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You can view and join @Z_BOEV_LIST_Z right away.

t.me

Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions in Belogorka, Kherson region. Allegedly the 76th VDV striking.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian strikes on Nikolaev.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ По целям в Николаеве нанесены удары Были зафиксированы вылеты ракет из Херсонской области, в Николаеве была объявлена воздушная тревога. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Нанесены удары по целям в Николаеве t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian strikes on Krivoy Rog. At least some are apparently done by loitering munitions.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осташко! Важное

Российский БПЛА атаковал притон ВСУ в Кривом Роге Очевидец снял последствия удара по военному объекту. Осташко! Важное - подпишись

t.me

Apparently Russia hit the South-Ukrainian NPP.

Colonelcassad

Ночной прилет в районе Южно-Украинской АЭС.

t.me

Киев обвинил российские войска в ракетном ударе по территории промзоны Южно-Украинской АЭС

Украина обвинила Россию в ракетном ударе по Южно-Украинской АЭС, соответствующее заявление распространил украинский "Энергоатом". Согласно сообщению, ракета ударила по территории промзоны атомной станции. Заявляется, что Россия якобы обстреляла Южно-Украинскую АЭС этой ночью, по

topwar.ru

Russian loitering munition strikes in Odessa. Some port structures and the naval HQ got hit. Ukrainian troops apparently attempted to bring it down with small-arms fire.

Colonelcassad

Результате "сбития украинской ПВО российского БПЛА". Беспилотник был успешно поражен верхними этажами здания в порту Одессы. Осталось узнать, что в нем находилось.

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Одессе БПЛА "Герань-2" поразил штаб ВМСУ.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Хаотичная стрельба в центре Одессы по одному из локализованных иранских беспилотников, который летел в сторону порта.

t.me

Colonelcassad

А вот и сам прилет по Одесскому порту. Ничего сбить хаотичной стрельбой по всему городу не получилось - дрон спокойно долетел и поразил цель, несмотря на относительно небольшую скорость и шум двигателя. ПВО с калашами - неуд.

t.me

Colonelcassad

БПЛА "Герань-2" поразил цель в районе Одесского порта.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Снова иранский беспилотник "сбит" каким-то украинским военным объектом. На этот раз в Одессе.

t.me

Colonelcassad

БПЛА-камикадзе над Одессой. Противник пытался сбить его из автоматов.

t.me

Battle damage in Kherson. There was another significant series of strikes there. Targets hit include a fire station.

Colonelcassad

Стремоусов показывает последствия удара по административному зданию в Херсоне.

t.me

Ратник 2-го раZряда

⚡️Херсон пережил ракетный удар. Масштаб разрушений будет понятен с утра, но уже сейчас приходят очень тревожные новости. Из того где успели побывать - набережная. Ракета упала между баржей, которая используется для коммерческих перевозок, на ней доставляют фуры с продуктами и собственно...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Последствия прилета в пожарную часть в Херсоне.

t.me

More footage of battle damage to the Antonov bridge.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Появились кадры Антоновского моста в Херсоне, по которому ВСУ выпустили десятки ракет HIMARS за последние месяцы Снизу хорошо видны сквозные пробоины от американских ракет. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Battle damage in Novaya Kahovka. One of the targets was apparently a power grid substation.

Украина.ру

⚡️Украинские войска нанесли ракетный удар по жилому массиву в Новой Каховке, как минимум два человека ранены

t.me

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vk.com

Geran'-2 fragments, Nikolaev region.

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vk.com

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vk.com

Russia has put up additional crossing points at the Novo-Kahovskaya dam.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia is also repairing the crossing at the dam itself.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A pair of Russian Tu-95MS were spotted over Kherson region. It's unclear why, since their main weapon is a cruise missile with very long range.

Пара российских стратегических ракетоносцев Ту-95МС замечена в небе над Херсонской областью

В небе над Херсоном замечены российские стратегические ракетоносцы, пара Ту-95МС Дальней авиации ВКС России прошла над городом на большой высоте. В Сети появилось видео пролета двух стратегов над освобожденными областями Украины, голос за кадром говорит, что съемка ведется в Херсоне 16 сентября.

topwar.ru

Russian National Guard in Skadovsk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Some footage of the referendum in Kherson region.

Murado

В Херсоне уже проголосовали тысячи людей — всего за несколько часов. И это несмотря на обстрелы, террор и угрозы расправы со стороны Киева и националистов, которые в преддверии референдума советовали людям держаться подальше от избирательных участков «для их собственной безопасности»

t.me

СМОТРИ

⚡️Кадры из Геническа Херсонской области, где также проходит референдум

t.me

Свободный Херсон

Обстановка - референдум!

t.me

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian UAV-directed AGS-17 fires.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Buk SAM firing, target unclear, Zaporozhye region.

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You can view and join @Z_BOEV_LIST_Z right away.

t.me

Russian strikes on Ukrainian troops, Zaporozhye region.

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You can view and join @Z_BOEV_LIST_Z right away.

t.me

Russian strikes in Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk.

ANNA NEWS

t.me

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vk.com

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vk.com

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vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Нанесена серия ударов по вражеским целям в Запорожье Прогремели около 10 взрывов. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

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vk.com

One of the targets in Zaporozhye was a hotel. Another was a powergrid substation.

Colonelcassad

В результате утреннего удара по Запорожью разрушен отель в центральном парке города. Также попадание зафиксировано по электроподстанции. Южные громады Запорожского района остались без света. Кроме того, есть попадания в телевышку.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженная подстанция в Запорожье. Нельзя не отметить, что в самоподрывах энергообъектов на Украине появилась приятная методичность.

t.me

Russian forces apparently captured a T-72M1 in Zaporozhye area.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

The cooling pipes of the Zaporozhskaya NPP are damaged, allegedly Ukrainian shelling.

Zvezdanews

☢️Трубы системы охлаждения ЗАЭС повреждены после обстрела ВСУ, из них хлещет вода. Также сообщается о попаданиях по столовой, где в момент начала обстрела находились работники станции. По предварительным данным, пострадавших нет Подписаться на Zvezdanews

t.me

Allegedly a Ukrainian strike hit grain storage facilities in Tokamak, Zaporozhye region.

Colonelcassad

Украинские войска нанесли удар по зернохранилищу и складам с удобрениями в пригороде Токмака Запорожской области, сообщили РИА Новости власти региона

t.me

Some footage from the referendum in Zaporozhye region.

Colonelcassad

Запорожская область голосует за референдум о воссоединении с Россией. Картинка живо напомнила Донбасс 2014.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Жители Мелитополя отмечают начало референдума автопробегом. Видео военкора RT Алексея @frantic_easel Репина. @rt_russian

t.me

Russia is reportedly forming a btln of locals in Zaporozhye region. Note, Russia has twice previously announced the formation of units out of locals in occupied areas. Nothing has materialized after the initial announcement and some PR-footage.

Владлен Татарский

Добровольческий батальон из Запорожской области приступил к формированию и обучению личного состава. Штат батальона, типа, как наши тербаты в ЛДНР. Личный состав из местных жителей, которые ждали возвращения России и теперь готовы сражаться. Батальон создан не для роликов в Тик-токе, а для...

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes landing in Kharkov.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

One of the targets allegedly a fuel storage facility.

WarJournal [Z]

«Бавовна» посетила украинскую нефтебазу в Харьковской области. Оказавшийся совершенно случайно рядом российский БпЛА «Орлан-10» зафиксировал последствия нарушения техники безопасности и курения в неположенном месте. @warjournaltg

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Battle damage in Kharkov to the rail station. Reportedly this is a Tornado-S strike.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Feanor]

Oskol Front.

Russian mortar fires near Liman, pre-withdrawal.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Разведчики "️тважных" отражают атаки на Лиман: уничтожено прикрытие ВСУ при попытке форсировать реку Северский Донец По позициям наших бойцов начал работать минометный расчет ВСУ, который пытался прикрыть форсирование реки штурмовыми группами врага. Передовой отряд разведчиков группировки...

t.me

Ukrainian BTR-(70?), a near-miss ATGM.

Dambiev

Украинский БТР-80 и пролетевший рядом ПТУР во время боёв в Харьковской области.

t.me

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vk.com

A destroyed Ukrainian Mamba Mk2 (1st link), Varta (2nd/3rd link) and Novator (4th link) armored cars.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

GREY ZONE

Украинский бронеавтомобиль МАЗ-5434 «Варта» уничтоженный в ходе наступательных действий ВСУ в начале сентября в Харьковской области. «Варта» была подбита из российского танка, тем самым противник понёс потери экипажем в 8 человек. @grey_zone

t.me

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vk.com

Colonelcassad

Подбитая бронемашина "Новатор" ВСУ в Балаклее Харьковской области. Фото: @anna_news

t.me

Destroyed BTR-4 near Kupyansk.

ANNA NEWS

Подбитый бронетранспортер БТР-4Е ВСУ в Купянске в Харьковской области. @anna_news

t.me

A Russian medic who was in Izyum shares some interesting details about their operations. According to him 95% of Russian WIA are wounded by explosions. Reportedly he's part of a volunteer btln where people serve on 3 month contracts.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

LDNR Front.

Apparently another Ukrainian attack on Peski got hit.

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vk.com

Russian T-90A in action near Mar'inka.

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vk.com

DNR Kaskad btln taking out two Ukrainian MT-12 Rapira guns near Ugledar.

МВД ДНР

Артиллерия и БЛА ОБТФ ДНР «Каскад» «отминусовали» у ВСУ две «Рапиры»

t.me

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vk.com

Russian strikes on Ukrainian forces near Ugledar.

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vk.com

Russian strikes on Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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vk.com

Russian/rebel troops firing incendiary munitions at Ukrainian positions in Ozernoe.

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vk.com

Fires burn after recent strikes in Kramatorsk.

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vk.com

Colonelcassad

Пожарище после удара по объекту в Краматорске.

t.me

Shelling of Donetsk continues. Warning footage of corpses.

Moscow calling

Обстрел Донецка артиллеристами ВСУ выглядит так. Если ты слышишь снаряд - он не твой. Но следующий вполне может быть твоим... К слову, фиксацией обстрелов в ЛДНР до сих пор занимаются СЦКК - Совместный центр контроля и координации, орган, созданный по инициативе Контактной группы по мирному...

t.me

Colonelcassad

В результате обстрела Донецка на площади Бакинских комиссаров погибло как минимум 13 мирных жителей, много ранено. Источник: Типичный Донецк.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Жертвы обстрела Куйбышевского района Донецка украинскими террористами. 18+

t.me

Moscow calling

Ещё один удар по Донецку - по рынку "Сокол" в Кировском районе, где из-за обстрела ВСУ полностью выгорели торговые ряды, погибли три продавца. Большего количества жертв удалось избежать, потому что сегодня на рынке выходной день — большинство площадок были закрыты. Вместе с погибшими на улице...

t.me

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vk.com

ДНР Онлайн

Последствия обстрела украинскими боевиками ул.60 лет СССР Куйбышевского района Донецка

t.me

Colonelcassad

В результате обстрела рынка в Донецке украинскими террористами снова погибли гражданские. Автор видео: Андрей Лысенко

t.me

Colonelcassad

По предварительным данным в результате обстрела центра Донецка погибло как минимум 5 человек, еще 4 получили ранения различной степени тяжести.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще кадры террористического обстрела центра Донецка и его кровавых последствий.

t.me

Война Глазами Журналиста

18+ 3090 дней или 8 лет 5 месяцев и 15 дней прошло с момента самопровозглашения Донецкой Народной Республики. Сегодня очередной день, из тысяч дней этой войны, когда от обстрелов ВСУ погибли мирные жители Донецка. Надеюсь завтра, когда мы все пойдём на референдум мы закончим то, ради чего...

t.me

Военкор Котенок

18+ "Позвоните маме, ребёнок погиб" — чудовищные кадры из центра Донецка, которые надо круглые сутки крутить перед мордами избалованных мажоров, выходящих на "антивоенные" митинги. @voenkorKotenok

t.me

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vk.com

The Slavyansk power plant after recent strikes.

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vk.com

Battle damage in Pervomaysk, allegedly a HIMARS strike.

Андрей Ященко

Первомайск. Последствия прилёта американского HIMARS.

t.me

Overrun Ukrainian positions near substation Donbasskaya 750, near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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vk.com

Позывной Брюс

Укрепрайон ВСУ, отбитый ЧВК Вагнер на подступах к освобожденной электроподстанции "Донбасская". Бахмутский район. @brussinf

t.me

Footage of Russian Wagner fighters near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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vk.com

A look at the Wagner fighter's Chekan armored truck. It's been seen before in Libya. At least two existed at one point. This one is currently near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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vk.com

Zvezdanews

⚡️️Уникальная машина ЧВК «Вагнер» под Артемовском. Называется она «Чекан». Такие бронеавтомобили производится специально на заказ и только для них. Корреспондент «Звезды» прокатился в ней вместе с бойцами и узнал о всех ее сильных сторонах Подписаться на Zvezdanews

t.me

Footage of the LNR 6th Cossack Rgt.

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vk.com

DNR forces are reporting they've taken the villange of Zhovanka. Note the map in the post shows Mayorka not under control, but it was earlier reportedly taken. Veracity of all of this is unclear.

Направленец по Украине

❗️Штаб территориальной обороны ДНР докладывает об освобождении населенного пункта Жованка

t.me

Footage from the referendum in Mariupol'.

Типичный Донецк

Референдум в Мариуполе Подписаться | Предложить новость

t.me

Russia.

Russian air defenses firing, Belgorod region.

Colonelcassad

В Белгородской области отработали системы ПВО. Источник: https://t.me/wargonzo

t.me

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vk.com

An unmanned naval system was destroyed near Sevastopol'. It apparently failed to reach it's target and then either self-destructed or was destroyed by Russian forces. The third link has good photos of the system. It might be a western-supplied system, it certainly doesn't look like anything I'm familiar with.

Colonelcassad

У берегов Севастополя уничтожен плавающий украинский беспилотник.

t.me

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vk.com

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vk.com

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vk.com

Allegedly a Ukrainian UAV shot down over Dzhankoy, Crimea.

Colonelcassad

Обломки украинского беспилотника упавшего в Джанкое. Как сообщают, сбит системами ПВО.

t.me

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vk.com

Another allegedly Ukrainian UAV landed in the Nizhnegorskiy region of Crimea. Reportedly Ukraine is putting red stars on the wings to disguise the UAVs as Russian.

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vk.com

Russian town of Valuyki was hit hard recently, a downed Tochka can be seen there.

ZАПИСКИ VЕТЕРАНА

Обломки "Точки У" сбитой накануне в Валуйках. Упали возле Валуйского РЭСа, в результате чего город был частично обесточен.

t.me

Russian troops apparently firing illumination rounds on the border with Kharkov region.

Осташко! Важное

Осветительные снаряды на границе с Харьковской областью Прислал подписчик из пгт Уразово. Под освещенной зоной видны вспышки. Прислать новость

t.me

The Alga volunteer btln from Tatarstan is receiving new armored trucks.

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vk.com

Russian transport planes have begun flying to Iran, presumably picking up more UAVs.

Dambiev

Похоже, иранские БЛА продемонстрировали свою эффективность в зоне СВО на Украине. К "иранскому экспрессу" подключилась военно- транспортная авиация ВКС России.

t.me

Footage from Russia's mobilization efforts. Long lines around the military commissariat offices. It's unclear why it's being done in this rushed and poorly organized manner. The military bureaucracy is clearly not ready for the influx of people.

⚡️Z Правда Шурави.

Магадан: отправка первых мобилизованных

t.me

Colonelcassad

Мобилизация идет...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военкор Z Евтушенко

Наткнулся в сети на видео марша российских мобилизованных. Судя по голосу снимающего и тому, что он говорит, боевой дух у мужчин высокий:)

t.me

Russian State Duma Deputy Yuriy Shvytkin has apparently volunteered to be mobilized for the war effort. He is a retired VDV officer that subsequently served as a commander in an MVD SOBR unit.

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vk.com

Russia has apparently replaced it's head of logistics, General Bulgakov. It's unclear where he is going and who is replacing him.

Снят главный тыловик РФ

После начала мобилизации, заменили начальника материально-технического обеспечения ВС РФ Булгакова. Переведен на другую работу. Прямо скажем, многие вопросы снабжения в ходе кампании оставляли желать лучшего, о чем несколько месяцев регулярно сообщали военкоры и гуманитарщики…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Misc.

Russian T-80BVM firing on Ukrainian infantry. Location and context unclear.

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vk.com

Russian T-72B takes an ATGM hit but apparently survives.

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vk.com

Moscow calling

Т-72 ВС РФ выдержал удар ПТРК. Как видите, далеко не всегда попадание ПТРК приводит к уничтожению танка. А бывает, даже MRAP выдерживают попадание ПТУР.

t.me

Ukrainian pickup truck firing an SPG-9. Location and context unclear.

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vk.com

Apparently Russian SpN in action, Ukraine. Based on the uniforms I suspect these are National Guard.

ANNA NEWS

Российские спецназовцы в ходе боевого выхода на Донбассе. @anna_news

t.me

A downed Ukrainian Su-25, location and context unclear.

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vk.com

Destroyed BTR-3, Ukrainian, somewhere in the South.

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженный БТР-3, брошенный флаг + трофеи. Южное направление. Источник: https://t.me/ptsr_team

t.me

Ukrainian armored Humvee destroyed, allegedly by a tank shell.

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vk.com

Ukrainian soldiers cheering a destroyed vehicle, but it's a Ukrainain BTR-4.

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vk.com

Ukrainian Kozak armored car destroyed, location and context unclear.

Уголок Ситха

Уничтоженный украинский бронеавтомобиль КОЗАК. Сентябрь 2022.

t.me

A captured YPR-765, possibly the same one we've seen before.

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vk.com

Colonelcassad

Трофейный украинский БТР типа YPR-765 (голландский М113 с модификациями). Источник: @Artillery_Artillery

t.me

Russian tanks with improvised up-armoring.

Побольше цепей и блоков

Танки ВС РФ с двумя типами дополнительно кустарно установленной защиты

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Russian armored Ural truck. This time not haphazard.

Еще один "Урал"

shusharmor.livejournal.com

Ukrainian technical with a 240. Location and context unclear.

БУБа

Боевое Украинское БАгги, пишут что в девичестве это было Пежо 205 (или 206)

shusharmor.livejournal.com

Russian Su-34 ops, with Kh-29 missiles.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Mi-28Ns over Ukraine. Note the rocket pods and lack of ATGMs.

Fighterbomber

Ночные охотники днем. Кстати, знаете как зовут Ми-28 другие винты? Микимаусы. Почему? Потому.

t.me

Russia and Ukraine have done a major exchange of POWs with reportedly 55 Russian and rebel POWs exchanged for ~200 Ukrainian ones, including Azov leadership and foreign fighters. Reportedly Ukraine also handed over the Ukrainian politician Medvedchuk, who is not a combatant nor a POW but is being exchanged like one. This questionable practice goes back to 2014.

Большой обмен

Стало известно, что помимо отпущенных через Саудовскую Аравию иностранных наемников, состоялся большой обмен военнопленными. Как пишут, обмен проводился в Черниговской области. На Украину отпустили всю верхушку нацистов из Азова попавшую в плен в Мариуполе (речь идет о нескольких…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

 

[Feanor]

NATO/EU.

Germany will hand over 4 more PzH-2000s to Ukraine. This will bring Ukraine's total inventory to 22.

Осташко! Важное

Германия продаст Украине еще 4 гаубицы Panzerhaubitze 2000 Минобороны Германии объявили о поставке еще четырех единиц военной техники «несмотря на напряжённую ситуацию с собственным материальным обеспечением». В дополнение к этому металлолому будут отправлены две РСЗО Mars II и 50 бронемашин...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraine is reportedly receiving 28 T-55-M55S tanks from Slovenia. These are MBTs with a NATO standard 105mm gun. If correct this indicates the beginning of a transition to western-style MBT guns, and opens the door on deliveries of M-60s and Leo-1s.

Moscow calling

Украина получила от Словении модернизированные танки Т-55 - М55S. Битва с Т-62М будет легендарной...

t.me

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vk.com

Словения передаст Украине 28 модернизированных танков М-55S

Словенские СМИ сообщили , что премьер-министр Словении Роберт Голоб и канцлер Германии Олаф Шольц достигли новой договоренности об обмене военной техникой с целью оказания военной помощи Украине. Согласно договоренности, Словения передаст Украине с хранения словенской армии 28 танков М-55S,…

bmpd.livejournal.com

Croatian-supplied M46 130mm Soviet howitzers have been spotted in Ukraine. I think this is their first sighting.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Feanor]

I'm now 9 days behind. Unfortunately it's moving in the wrong direction.

 

[vonnoobie]

Deep State Map is now showing the armored push towards Dudchany, along the Dnepr. UKR is finally breaking loose in Kherson ?

Supposedly Strelkov tweeted the same, but I would like to see confirmation. I dont place much faith in a single twitter.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewe...S&ll=47.15854092741412,33.59473196169771&z=10

According to google their are unconfirmed reports they are already at Dudchany.

According to @WarMonitor3 on Twitter Russian forces are trying to throw any reserves they have to hold the line and apperantly Russian forces have been using Telegram to call in air support...... Which if accurate is not only very desperate but also very dangerous especially if some one decides to start throw out false targets to mess with the RuAF and f***s it up.

 

[vikingatespam]

I'm now 9 days behind. Unfortunately it's moving in the wrong direction.

It almost impossible to keep up. Just trying to read the various UKR channels on Project Owl Discord would take half the day.

 

[vikingatespam]

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US&ll=47.15854092741412,33.59473196169771&z=10

According to google their are unconfirmed reports they are already at Dudchany.

According to @WarMonitor3 on Twitter Russian forces are trying to throw any reserves they have to hold the line and apperantly Russian forces have been using Telegram to call in air support...... Which if accurate is not only very desperate but also very dangerous especially if some one decides to start throw out false targets to mess with the RuAF and f***s it up.

I am happy to see something breaking loose in the Kherson region, but I await pictoral proof of this breakthrough.

Who would be insane enough to try and drop air or artillery support using social media

 

[vonnoobie]

I am happy to see something breaking loose in the Kherson region, but I await pictoral proof of this breakthrough.

Who would be insane enough to try and drop air or artillery support using social media

I agree on waiting for confirmation of claims which is why I like google maps, gives you the rough unit locations with confirmed and unconfirmed territorial changes

As to insane enough I'm not so sure it's a fact of being sane or not but rather an indication of 1. The breakdown in communication and 2. IMO a perfect picture to show the top down model of Russian command and control is far too slow to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances on the front so the blokes in the trenches are trying to bypass command and speak directly to who they need to.

 

[vikingatespam]

As to insane enough I'm not so sure it's a fact of being sane or not but rather an indication of 1. The breakdown in communication and 2. IMO a perfect picture to show the top down model of Russian command and control is far too slow to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances on the front so the blokes in the trenches are trying to bypass command and speak directly to who they need to.

I imagine how this goes:

Ru unit: NET, this is RU 1, requesting artillery support at 8675309, over
NET: RU1, why are you sending me donkey porn, over
RU1: what ? We didnt send that, but I have a great deal on car insurance, over
NET: RU1, are you the real RU1, over

and so on....

 

[ngatimozart]

ISW Updates.
These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
October 1, 7 pm ET

Full article:

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of Russian troops from Lyman to “more advantageous positions” to

www.understandingwar.org

The pdf can be downloaded here.

Main Points.

• Ukrainian forces liberated Lyman and are likely clearing the settlement as of October 1.
• Russia is likely setting conditions to assume legal responsibility for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
• Ukrainian troops are continuing to conduct counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast and setting conditions for future advances.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas of Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued routine strikes against Ukrainian rear areas in the south.
• Russian military leadership is continuing to compromise the future reconstitution of the force by prioritizing the immediate mobilization of as many bodies as possible for ongoing fighting in Ukraine.
• Russian mobilization authorities continue to carry out discriminatory mobilization practices.

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of Russian troops from Lyman to “more advantageous positions” to avoid the “threat of encirclement” in the settlement.[1] Social media footage and Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Ukrainian forces have entered Lyman and are likely clearing the settlement as of October 1.

The Russian information space – composed of Kremlin propagandists, pundits, and milbloggers – registered the defeat as the result of the Russian military command’s failure to send reinforcements in a timely manner, while openly criticizing repeated bureaucratic failures during the mobilization.[2] Russian commentators overwhelmingly expressed their hopes that partial mobilization would generate enough force to resume offensive operations and regain the initiative. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, apparently devastated by the defeat in Lyman, called on Russia to continue to fight to ”liberate” the four annexed territories with all available means including low-yield nuclear weapons.[3]

Kadyrov’s rant is similar to the disorganized and often hyperbolic milblogger rants that call for the Kremlin to continue the war in Ukraine, and his call for the use of nuclear weapons was not representative of the discourse within the Russian information space. Russian federal TV channels and ultra-hawkish milbloggers have often discussed Russian nuclear capabilities as part of their efforts to stoke patriotic sentiments among Russian domestic audiences, and Kadyrov’s statement was not especially noteworthy in this context.

Kadyrov’s call for using tactical nuclear weapons is likely inconsistent with his demands to continue the “special military operation” to bring more Ukrainian territory under Russian control. The Russian military in its current state is almost certainly unable to operate on a nuclear battlefield even though it has the necessary equipment and has historically trained its units to do so. The chaotic agglomeration of exhausted contract soldiers, hastily mobilized reservists, conscripts, and mercenaries that currently comprise the Russian ground forces could not function in a nuclear environment. Any areas affected by Russian tactical nuclear weapons would thus be impassable for the Russians, likely precluding Russian advances. This consideration is another factor that reduces the likelihood of Russian tactical nuclear weapons use.

Kadyrov blamed the commander of the Central Military District (CMD), Colonel General Alexander Lapin, for failures around Lyman. Kadyrov’s attacks gained significant traction within the Russian information space and indicate that the rift between Russian traditional and non-traditional forces is likely growing. Kadyrov stated that Lapin, responsible for the ”central” group of forces in Ukraine, failed to properly equip units operating in the Lyman area and moved his headquarters far from the frontlines. Kadyrov also accused the Russian General Staff and specifically Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, of covering up Lapin’s failures. Wagner Group financier Evgeniy Prigozhin publicly agreed with Kadyrov’s criticism of Lapin, saying that the higher military command should fight “barefoot with machine guns on the frontlines.”[4] Milbloggers and state television hosts praised Kadyrov‘s and Prigozhin’s critiques of the Russian military command, adding that the command is corrupt and disinterested in Russian strategic goals.[5] Kadyrov, Lapin, and Prigozhin are all operating in the Donbas sector, and such comments indicate the strains within the Russian forces operating in Ukraine and their leadership. The Kremlin may be amplifying such criticism to set informational conditions for personnel changes within the higher military command in weeks to come.

The defeat around Lyman also indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin – who has reportedly been micromanaging Russian commanders on the ground – is deprioritizing defending Luhansk Oblast in favor of holding occupied territories in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian and Russian sources consistently indicate that Russian forces continued to reinforce Russian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, despite the recent collapse of the Kharkiv-Izyum front and even as the Russian positions around Lyman collapsed.[6] The decision not to reinforce vulnerable Kupyansk or Lyman front lines was almost certainly Putin’s, not that of the military command, and suggests that Putin cares far more about holding the strategic terrain of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts than he does about Luhansk Oblast.

Russia is likely setting conditions to assume legal responsibility for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Russian authorities detained the general director of the ZNPP, Ihor Murashov, on September 30.[7] A Russian miblogger claimed that Murashov’s detention will have no tangible impact on the operation of the plant since the power units are already shut down and stated that authorities are currently undertaking ”routine“ legal work to transfer control of the plant to Russian state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom and create a new legal entity for the ZNPP.[8] Murashov’s detention and the ”legal” process of transferring control of the ZNPP to Rosatom are noteworthy indications that Russian authorities will likely seek to exploit their control of the ZNPP to pressure the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to legitimize the illegal Russian annexations of occupied Ukrainian territory by coercing it to acknowledge Russia‘s legal control over the ZNPP.

Russian forces conducted a failed ground attack on Kozacha Lopan in northern Kharkiv Oblast on October 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground attack on Kozacha Lopan, 5km from the Kharkiv Oblast-Russia border.[9] Such attacks indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely retains the aim of regaining control of territory beyond the oblasts he has illegally annexed and is willing to allocate Russian military assets to such offensive actions rather than dedicating them to defending against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Donbas.