The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor · Jun 20, 2022

I'm still 2 days behind. I was hoping to clear the backlog but it didn't work out. I'll let you guys know if/when I get caught up.

OPSSG · Jun 20, 2022

vikingatespam said:
From what I have heard, talking to someone who is going through the process, the UKR embassy does some sort of check, but I would be surprised if this was anything other than cursory criminal record check.

What the Ukrainian Army needs and what it gets are different things. They really need SF trained foreign personnel to train the trainers — to improve the quality of military instruction for their recon teams & other specialists (like ATGM teams & snipers), but that is not how these foreign fighters are being used — in a way that is a pity.

Some in Ukraine are trained tier 1 & their 2 guys but there is no top tier aviation support, so they end up being over trained infantry & infiltration specialists.

vikingatespam said:
I would also imagine that some fraction of people who went over with the right motivations, but no actual 11B experience, probably returned in a hurry when they realized the reality of being on a 2-way rifle range.

Being shot at is not the main reason foreigners are getting out.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538144687168659457

For whatever reason, Ken Rhee’s decided to go home to Korea too. He could have easily chosen to go to America to avoid prosecution but decided otherwise.

vikingatespam · Jun 20, 2022

All the SFAB missions in UKR ended before 2/24, but I would hope they restarted in Poland.

STURM · Jun 20, 2022

OPSSG said:
They really need SF trained foreign personnel to train the trainers — to improve the quality of military instruction for their recon teams & other specialists (like ATGM teams & snipers), but that is not how these foreign fighters are being used — in a way that is a pity.

Yes but how many of these foreign volunteers actually are actually qualified to provide such training? Ex military they may be but not necessarily SF or sniper trained. Also after 100 days of war there's also the likely possibility that some locals might have more combat experience than the foreign volunteers.

koxinga · Jun 20, 2022

STURM said:
Also after 100 days of war there's also the likely possibility that some locals might have more combat experience than the foreign volunteers.

It might well be true, but how many of these experienced locals actually get to rotate out of frontline combat into a training role to build the next generation? I do not have facts for Ukraine, but history (WWII) shows that when the situation gets desperate, countries will throw their best and most experienced forces repeatedly into the cauldron to stem losses.

Feanor · Jun 20, 2022

Vivendi said:
Thanks -- if we assume 30-35 million it is still a significant number of people. The population of Finland when the winter war started in 1939 was 3.7 million people. Whereas the population of the USSR at that time was estimated to 168 million. Russia's population today is around 145 million.

Ukraine is not running out of manpower. So far the intensity of the fighting and the scale of casualties simply isn't high enough for that. If that's your point, you are completely correct. For practical purposes both Russia and Ukraine currently have unlimited manpower reserves in principle. The issue is the effectiveness of mobilizing those reserves, and the willingness of various state apparatuses to take steps to do so. For example, if Russia were to send commissariat service members to beaches to draft people, it would cause a huge uproar. But Ukraine is currently doing it.

GermanHerman said:
National Defense Magazine published an Interview with Denys Sharapov, Ukraine’s deputy minister of the defense in charge of procurement, and Brig. Gen. Volodymyr Karpenko, land forces command logistics commander.

These are, as stated, very rough approximations made up by a single officer during the interview. In addition some have pointed out that ukraine might overstate its current losses in order to heighten the pressure on donor nations to send more aid (Arestovich stating 500 kia per day for example seems extremly high).

For context Oryx lists as today 192 Tanks, 135 IFV (+88 AFV / 67 APC / 104 IMV) and 34 towed + 40 SP artillery systems as losses for the UAF.

Given how little we hear about the situation the UAF are in I thought it would still be interesting for some of you.

I wouldn't be surprised if these numbers were fairly accurate. Oryx lists confirmed by photos kills. Ukrainian OPSEC has been reasonably good. Consider how rare sightings of Ukrainian T-64BVs have become. T-80BVs have disappeared almost entirely (they were mainly used by the Marines and Airmobile Bdes). Meanwhile we see the "new" T-72Ms in larger quantities and greater frequencies. I suspect Ukraine has gone through anywhere from 30-60% of their pre-war inventory for any given ground forces equipment types.

STURM said:
Yes but how many of these foreign volunteers actually are actually qualified to provide such training? Ex military they may be but no necessarily SF or sniper trained. Also after 100 days of war there's also the likely possibility that some locals might have more combat experience than the foreign volunteers.

Experience is only valuable if it leads to changes in how units operate, and if it's institutionalized, analyzed, and understood. Prime example, the Syrian Arab Army has a very high volume of experience, but their ability to put that experience to good use is limited. As a result, a country with minimal recent combat experience (South Korea for example) can often perform much better. Militaries are organizations and institutional strength is different from individual experience.

OPSSG · Jun 20, 2022

@STURM, is there any value add in what you are saying — disagreeing for the sake of appearances?

1. My concern is on improving “the quality of military instruction for their recon teams & other specialists,” amongst of which may include as examples, ATGM teams & sniper pairs. I have a family member that is sniper trained, and had their training methodology explained to me (but admittedly, I am not an expert in this area).

(a) The Korean Navy and Army have their own school houses — which have audited the methodology used by their U.S. counterparts. As Feanor explained, institutional strength is different from individual experience.

(b) School houses provide sound basic tactics for employment of weapons systems — given the rush to push people to the front by Ukraine, some cross cultural learning from foreign school house methods might be useful.

(c) Since 2009 the Korea Naval Special Warfare Flotilla (SWF) have formed the core of the Cheonghae anti-piracy task group deployed to the coast of Somalia. On 22 Jan 2011, as part of Operation Dawn of Gulf of Aden, 15 SWF operators boarded the 11,000-ton chemical freighter Samho Jewelry which was taken by 13 pirates 6 days prior. The boarding party of 15 SWF killed 8 pirates and captured 5 without taking any casualties after a 3 hour firefight. All 21 hostages were secured.

STURM said:
Yes but how many of these foreign volunteers actually are actually qualified to provide such training? Ex military they may be but no necessarily SF or sniper trained. Also after 100 days of war there's also the likely possibility that some locals might have more combat experience than the foreign volunteers.

Feanor said:
Experience is only valuable if it leads to changes in how units operate, and if it's institutionalized, analyzed, and understood. Prime example, the Syrian Arab Army has a very high volume of experience, but their ability to put that experience to good use is limited. As a result, a country with minimal recent combat experience (South Korea for example) can often perform much better. Militaries are organizations and institutional strength is different from individual experience.

2. Agreed. Thanks for the firm rebuttal to STURM’s admittedly rare bullshit. What are the truths we should look out for? Artillery as the king of battle, remain the greatest killer on the battlefield and flooded plains with mud continues to suck the momentum out of armies. The rate at which the Ukrainian Army can absorb western 155mm artillery may determine the outcome of the war in some cases.

STURM said:
Yes but how many of these foreign volunteers actually are actually qualified to provide such training?

3. My apologies for my unfiltered thoughts in response to your critique; 90% of what you write in your posts is excellent but there’s 10% that is coloured by a lens with no bearing on the ‘truth’ of a post.

4. There are enough SF trained foreign legion personnel who have been cycled through sniper school that are in country, with Ukraine — see above pic.

(a) There is too much bullshit on many discussion forums — which is why sometimes, it’s unrewarding to post my thoughts on potential gaps, in Ukrainian training (or lack thereof) and its pedagogy. This is well meaning and mild criticism; there is no need to prove my point beyond the above pic. As I said, some foreigners in Ukraine are trained tier 1 & their 2 guys, who have been through multiple school houses and exchange programs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538973409840971776

(b) Necessity is the mother of invention, see scenes of a video on the construction process of drone deployed munitions — Ukraine is doing some pretty innovative things, we should emulate.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538295495189094400

(c) President Zelenskyy has been willing to take personal risk to visit soldiers in the field, and get his own sense of how the war is progressing. Visits allow President Zelenskyy to ask questions of his commanders. This is an important function of a national political leader in their interaction with military commanders at war. This is an important leadership characteristic demonstrated.

STURM said:
Ex military they may be but not necessarily SF or sniper trained.

5. Go look in detail of the SF types that are moving in roving teams in Ukraine instead of disagreeing for the sake of disagreement. Like you, I have done some basic reading about the Ukrainian Army — it’s strength is often mischaracterised in the press in an over simplistic way by some (claiming that NCOs make the difference). There is more nuance involved than that.

STURM said:
Also after 100 days of war there's also the likely possibility that some locals might have more combat experience than the foreign volunteers.

6. If you want to be a critic taking pot shots, get the facts right. The Ukrainian Army has been fighting for years, since 2014 — it’s not just the last 100 days.

seaspear · Jun 20, 2022

There have been reports that weapons even first aid having been diverted in Ukraine from its forces is it known how much and who has been behind this and what steps are being taken to curtail this????

Feanor · Jun 20, 2022

seaspear said:
There have been reports that weapons even first aid having been diverted in Ukraine from its forces is it known how much and who has been behind this and what steps are being taken to curtail this????

Can you be more specific, and ideally provide the reports in question? It's very hard to speak to something so vague. I'm sure there's regular corruption and theft.

vikingatespam · Jun 20, 2022

There is no doubt there is corruption, especially in a time without adequate paperwork. However, trying to quantify the amount of diversion has to be hopeless while the fighting is going on. On the flip side we sure know the Javelins/PzFaust/etc are getting through. I would imagine the big ticket items are getting through (AFV, artillery) while there is "diversion" of the more valuable items (food, medicine, gas). Im sure the smart thieves leave the ammo so the fighting guys can keep fighting (similar to what happened in the German rear areas during WW2 in Russia).

STURM · Jun 20, 2022

OPSSG said:
is there any value add in what you are saying — disagreeing for the sake of appearances?

OPSSG said:
6. If you want to be a critic taking pot shots, get the facts right. The Ukrainian Army has been fighting for years, since 2014 — it’s not just the last 100 days.

I wasn't taking taking pot shots or disagreeing for the sake of doing so. I get no added value from doing that, not do I get any satisfaction from it.

I'm aware of the need for the Ukrainians to get the type of training you mentioned and the fact that a high number of foreign volunteers are ex SF types but I was merely offering the opinion that not all may ex SF and may not be qualified for that type of training. If I'm mistaken then so be it but I was merely asking a question which I felt was relevant, didn't say I was right. Nor was I implying you were wrong.

This may be of interest. The guest is an investigative journo who wrote a bit about the sniper and other forms of specialised training the Ukrainians received years ago.

Feanor · Jun 21, 2022

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

2 Russian missiles struck the Equator factory in Nikolaev.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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