The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[vikingatespam]

The T-62 saga continues. We have two more interesting photos of the T-62s.

First is a T-62MV, with no cage on top. The sign says "good night, we are from Sochi" which is a town in Russia. This could mean anything of course, from DNR fighters being Russian volunteers, to Russian mercenaries or irregulars. The tank and a piece of the sideskirts are covered in K-1 tiles. But the main sideskirt apparently is missing and has been replaced with scrap metal. Improvised sideskirts are normal in LDNR hands, especially for light armor. BMPs frequently get rubber sideskirts.

Then we have this one. It's a T-62M, not MV, no ERA tiles here... or are there? Look at the side-skirt. It's a modern Russian sideskirt off of a T-80BVM or T-72B3mod'16. Russia could of course install them at depots or field repair units. However they obviously didn't. None of the T-62 photos we saw until now had them. But we did see improvised side-skirts above. I think this is more of the same, expect in this case sides kirts from a more modern tank were available. These probably came from a destroyed vehicle.


90 day contracts
"Can" they? I'm sure they can. Would they want to? I suspect not. The Russian military is far looser on enforcing service contracts, and on letting people leave before their contract time is up. Also I'm not aware of 30 day contracts, I'm aware of 90 day contracts.


Rockets
This is real military hardware. Why wouldn't it cluster? Rifles group when fired at the same target. Artillery groups when fired at the same location. Why wouldn't unguided rockets? The real issue with these barrages is that they're ill-suited to dislodging entrenched infantry. If an open artillery position gets hit by a barrage like that, especially towed guns or Grads, they will have a bad day. But if dug in infantry gets hit, and they hear the rockets coming and take cover, there could be very few to no casualties. You posted that "lunar" landscape with the craters. How many military targets got hit? Do we see any trenches, dug in positions, vehicles, bodies, anything at all?

For the T-62, I suspect most improvised skirts dont work without further offset from the hull, at least against any modern HEAT warhead.

90 day contracts: Sorry, I meant to say 90 day, not 30 day. Even if you have achieved some sort of steady-state, the chaos from having this constant influx and outflux of personnel much ruin any sense of unit cohesion.

Rockets: dont forget the helicopter has changes in pitch between individual rockets being fired, which exacerbates the spread over long distances. This can probably be offset somewhat by computer controls.

 

[STURM]

Major General Piotr Błazeusz, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, mentions ''Russian culture cannot embrace the ingenuity, decentralisation and the mission command but if forced to; like in WW2 they can learn and adjust''. The inability do do certain things because of culture is open to debate and I'm surprised such a senior officer would say something like this. He also mentions the need to worry not about Russian quality but about quantity; isn't this a dangerous assumption to make; that Russia is incapable of any qualitative advantages?

 

[Feanor]

For the T-62, I suspect most improvised skirts dont work without further offset from the hull, at least against any modern HEAT warhead.

Look at photos of the T-72B3mod'16 or T-80BVM. They're not particular far offset. Presumably they're mounted in a similar manner on the T-62. I don't see why they would be less effective. It would actually have been smart of Russia to install upgraded sideskirts and turret ERA for the sides and rear of the turret on all these vehicles at depot level, but that's a separate issue.

90 day contracts: Sorry, I meant to say 90 day, not 30 day. Even if you have achieved some sort of steady-state, the chaos from having this constant influx and outflux of personnel much ruin any sense of unit cohesion.

I can't help but wonder if these yield any significant quantities of personnel. So far this entire war has only been ~100 days, so I suspect the time issue hasn't been that big of a deal for now. I guess we will see. Actually we may very well not see given the lack of transparency in the Russian military.

 

[T.C.P]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vd2jvv
UA helicopters being loaded and armed on random fields. With the sheer size of Ukraine, they can easily move their choppers around with being destroyed on the ground.

Regarding the high angle rocket launches, I know the ballistic computers in Ka-52s and Mi-28s make them reasonable accurate, does Ukraine have any similar system onboard for their choppers? and how accurately can you lob them without such a system? I have seen MLRS and artillery crews on both sides manually calculating trajectory using compasses and survey equipment, but manually doing it o na moving flying helicopter seems to be a much more unattainable task.

Ukraine suffering up to 1,000 casualties per day in Donbas, official says

Ukraine's top negotiator says 200 to 500 troops are dying daily.

www.axios.com

New peak of casualty claims from the UA side. This can't be true. 500 KIA a day just in Donbas alone, the front would have collapsed. I know that they need the new weapons badly, but increasing outrageous loss claims, will porbbaly end up doing more harm then good.

 

[vikingatespam]

500 KIA a day doesnt seem legit for such a small area. 500 KIA = 2000 WIA/day, and I have my doubts the UKR could move troops in and out of Severodonetsk that quickly. Without going back to some of my German records for 1944 (LXXXI and LXXXVIII corps), I seriously doubt 500 KIA for a corps level frontage was anywhere near reality.

 

[Morgo]

Major General Piotr Błazeusz, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, mentions ''Russian culture cannot embrace the ingenuity, decentralisation and the mission command but if forced to; like in WW2 they can learn and adjust''. The inability do do certain things because of culture is open to debate and I'm surprised such a senior officer would say something like this. He also mentions the need to worry not about Russian quality but about quantity; isn't this a dangerous assumption to make; that Russia is incapable of any qualitative advantages?

It's not clear to me that he's assuming anything. I would say that a senior Polish officer would have a more informed opinion than just about anyone on the matter. The Poles, more than pretty much anyone else, have a very strong incentive to have a true understanding of the capabilities and culture of the Russians. In the antebellum period they would have as much skin in the game as Ukraine, and would continue to be as threatened as the Baltics are.

I imagine he spent the early stages of his career either just before or after the fall of the Berlin Wall and would be intimately familiar with their military culture at that time.

If he has been doing his job properly subsequently (which I presume he has given how well prepared the Polish Armed Forces appear compared to other European nations) then he would have spent an awful lot of the last 30 years or so thinking about and having access to intelligence on:

• the Russians and their approach
• how they've changed post the fall of the Berlin Wall
• how this compares to the reforms the Poles have made
• what this means for the relative effectiveness of their armed forces, and
• how the Poles should counter Russian capabilities and tactics.

Given the above, who would be better placed to comment except perhaps a senior Russian officer?

 

[Vivendi]

New 1Billion USD package from the US approved. New $1B U.S. Aid Includes Harpoon Missiles, More Precision Rockets For Ukraine (thedrive.com)

The HIMARS and Harpoons (although it will take a bit longer) for sure will be well received. I was surprised to see only 18 155mm Howitzers in this latest package but then I read further down in the article that 400 artillery pieces have reached Ukraine or have been promised, perhaps that's why there are only 18 in this new package? Also "only" 36,000 rounds of 155mm ammo.

 

[STURM]

Given the above, who would be better placed to comment except perhaps a senior Russian officer?

I can think of others who are also able to also give informed opinions : officers from other countries which were formerly Warsaw Pact and analyst/researchers whose main or only job is analysing a d keeping track of Russian military developments. I'm not disputing what he said; which ultimately is his personal opinion; he could be wrong irrespective of the fact that he's a Polish professional military officer who has a close understanding of the Russians.

Note that there have been numerous instances of Russians/Soviets in the past in other conflicts doing what he said they are unable to because of cultural reasons: decentralisation and mission command. Also, the idea that the Russians are unable to achieve based on qualitative superiority and only numerical superiority is open to debate.

 

[ngatimozart]

I can think of others who are also able to also give informed opinions : officers from other countries which were formerly Warsaw Pact and analyst/researchers whose main or only job is analysing a d keeping track of Russian military developments. I'm not disputing what he said; which ultimately is his personal opinion; he could be wrong irrespective of the fact that he's a Polish professional military officer who has a close understanding of the Russians.

Note that there have been numerous instances of Russians/Soviets in the past in other conflicts doing what he said they are unable to because of cultural reasons: decentralisation and mission command. Also, the idea that the Russians are unable to achieve based on qualitative superiority and only numerical superiority is open to debate.

To be blunt, I think said Polish General is being somewhat of an arrogant egotistical twat who thinks he's superior to anyone Russia can can produce. He's making the most fundament mistake that any military leader can make and that is underestimating and belittling his opponent. Fool.

 

[vonnoobie]

Never ever underestimate the opponent, Let them underestimate you then they come at you unprepared.... why does that sound vaguely familiur? -scratches head-

 

[swerve]

It's not clear to me that he's assuming anything. I would say that a senior Polish officer would have a more informed opinion than just about anyone on the matter. ...

I imagine he spent the early stages of his career either just before or after the fall of the Berlin Wall and would be intimately familiar with their military culture at that time.

If he has been doing his job properly subsequently (which I presume he has given how well prepared the Polish Armed Forces appear compared to other European nations) then he would have spent an awful lot of the last 30 years or so thinking about and having access to intelligence on:

• the Russians and their approach
• how they've changed post the fall of the Berlin Wall
• how this compares to the reforms the Poles have made
• what this means for the relative effectiveness of their armed forces, and
• how the Poles should counter Russian capabilities and tactics.

Given the above, who would be better placed to comment except perhaps a senior Russian officer?

Major-General Blazeusz (born 1971) has a PhD in Political Science. Airborne infantry platoon commander, former head of the Polish force in Afghanistan, with such postings as attaché in Washington DC & deputy MILREP for Poland at NATO HQ. Appears to be no. 3 in the Polish general staff. Yes, he should be well-informed & also able to place the current fracas to the east in an international context.

Oh, & was a jump instructor. Over 500 parachute jumps.

Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces

 

[Vivendi]

Interesting interview with people at the International Donors Coordination Cell (IDCC) Inside the room where Ukraine orders arms from the West - BBC News

Of course a lot of information they cannot share, but interesting to note that they believe this war can continue for "years". Clearly that will be a huge challenge for EU/NATO, to keep this up for such a long time. On the other hand, we don't know for how long Russia can keep this going at the same level especially since Putin still the defines the war as a "special operations" with the restrictions that entails.

In other news, it seems Ukrainian insurgence in occupied territories is having an impact in particular in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia (both in Southern Ukraine) Putin Has a Problem: Ukraine Knows How to Fight an Insurgency - 19FortyFive

Ukrainian farmers are poisoning cherries which are then stolen and eaten by Russian soldiers: Ukrainian Farmers Poison Russian Troops With Spiked Cherries as Guerrilla War Terrifies Invaders (thedailybeast.com)

 

[STURM]

Of course a lot of information they cannot share, but interesting to note that they believe this war can continue for "years".

The assumption for quite some time now is that this won't be over anytime soon. The assumption however was that the Ukraine might have been in a better position for a drawn out conflict; that assumption has changed and the key question that really remains to be seen is how much longer can the Ukraine stay in the fight irrespective of Western support; it has taken a heavy beating and its economy is in shambles. As Michael Kofman points out in the video [link posted in a recent post here] in the past the past the Russians have surprised observers with the ability to regenerate much quicker than expected. Not to the same quality as before but nonetheless enough to keep it in the fight. As i see too much emphasis has been placed on Russia's problem but much much less on the Ukraine's. There may be schadenfreude and amusement at seeing the difficulties the Russians are facing and the fact that they've placed into service T-62s but they're still in the fight [if only just barely] and they too are adapting.

 

[Vivendi]

The assumption for quite some time now is that this won't be over anytime soon. The assumption however was that the Ukraine might have been in a better position for a drawn out conflict; that assumption has changed and the key question that really remains to be seen is how much longer can the Ukraine stay in the fight irrespective of Western support; it has taken a heavy beating and its economy is in shambles. As Michael Kofman points out in the video [link posted in a recent post here] in the past the past the Russians have surprised observers with the ability to regenerate much quicker than expected. Not to the same quality as before but nonetheless enough to keep it in the fight. As i see too much emphasis has been placed on Russia's problem but much much less on the Ukraine's. There may be schadenfreude and amusement at seeing the difficulties the Russians are facing and the fact that they've placed into service T-62s but they're still in the fight [if only just barely] and they too are adapting.

True but Ukraine has some advantages -- they have done a full mobilization of a country of around 40 million people, and they are still highly motivated to fight and defend their homeland. New Ukrainian soldiers are being trained as we speak. Their economy is ruined but as long as the West can support them they will be able to keep the country afloat and keep fighting. Also, as Russia occupies more territories they have to fight insurgencies in those territories as well.

I think this is still very open-ended.

 

[Feanor]

True but Ukraine has some advantages -- they have done a full mobilization of a country of around 40 million people, and they are still highly motivated to fight and defend their homeland. New Ukrainian soldiers are being trained as we speak. Their economy is ruined but as long as the West can support them they will be able to keep the country afloat and keep fighting. Also, as Russia occupies more territories they have to fight insurgencies in those territories as well.

I think this is still very open-ended.

Ukraine definitely didn't have 40 million population to mobilize from. That 40+ million number included Crimea and the Donbass. Subtract them and it's more like 35 million. But even that number might be high given that Ukraine hasn't done a census since 2000, has very low birth rates, and high emigration rates.

 

[STURM]

True but Ukraine has some advantages

Both have respective advantages. Ukraine's advantages have to be seen in context with those of Russia's. We keep hearing about the Ukraine's advantages but much much less of Russia's. Some like to assume or rather hope that it will be Russia that will be the first to be unable to sustain itself; that Western sanctions, manpower issues, etc, will prove decisive.

 

[Kutschera]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vd2jvv
UA helicopters being loaded and armed on random fields. With the sheer size of Ukraine, they can easily move their choppers around with being destroyed on the ground.

Regarding the high angle rocket launches, I know the ballistic computers in Ka-52s and Mi-28s make them reasonable accurate, does Ukraine have any similar system onboard for their choppers? and how accurately can you lob them without such a system? I have seen MLRS and artillery crews on both sides manually calculating trajectory using compasses and survey equipment, but manually doing it o na moving flying helicopter seems to be a much more unattainable task.

Ukraine suffering up to 1,000 casualties per day in Donbas, official says

Ukraine's top negotiator says 200 to 500 troops are dying daily.

www.axios.com

New peak of casualty claims from the UA side. This can't be true. 500 KIA a day just in Donbas alone, the front would have collapsed. I know that they need the new weapons badly, but increasing outrageous loss claims, will porbbaly end up doing more harm then good.

Perhaps the following page will provide additional information regarding the accuracy of indirect missile fire by helicopters:

Angriffsverfahren, Gefechtsordnung - Die Ausbildung zum Hubschrauberführer der NVA. Ich hab's erlebt.

www.nva-flieger.de

The site is run by alumni of the NVA air forces. The NVA was the East German army at the time of the Warsaw Pact. Since the site is in German, I have translated the relevant paragraph with the help of Deepl.

"
Attack from the climb

Application to attack large group and area targets heavily covered by air defenses. Mainly, unguided missiles are used in indirect aiming, in a sense from "covered firing positions" from a greater firing distance than allowed by the other attack methods.

The method of attack from the climb is relatively new and is in the process of being tested. Opinions vary widely on the applicability and effectiveness of using the sighting technology currently available in attack helicopters (MI-24). However, it can be assumed that attack from the climb is contrary to the nature of the attack helicopter as a highly mobile precision weapons carrier and the intended "engagement of small-area, mobile land and sea objects."

Attack from climb is therefore considered an exception to be used when other methods of attack are not possible.

The future, however, may bring a change; for example, with the introduction of terminal-phase guided weapons: the first phase of flight is ballistic or aerodynamic, and in the second phase (terminal phase) the weapon is directed at irradiated targets or approached by various methods (infrared, radio detection, television guidance, electromagnetic fields).
Advantages

large maximum firing distance of unguided missiles of 4..4.5 km
Reduction of the effectiveness of enemy air defenses
applicability even in unfavorable visibility conditions

Disadvantages

The lack of appropriate sighting devices and the fact that the salvos are highly dispersed due to the helicopter's movement reduce the probability of a hit.
Less effectiveness at the target, because of the lack of penetrating power due to the long distance.
in individual cases, warheads may fail to detonate because the required impact velocity of 250ms-1 may not be achieved
large fuselage inclination of the helicopter (5°..8°) near the maximum speed and strong vibrations
control problems when initiating climb (bank moment) and the abrupt deceleration when firing large salvos
large required safety distance to friendly forces, since the missiles have a strong longitudinal dispersion; engagement of targets directly in front of friendly forces is thus not possible
relatively high altitude gain

"

 

[Vivendi]

Ukraine definitely didn't have 40 million population to mobilize from. That 40+ million number included Crimea and the Donbass. Subtract them and it's more like 35 million. But even that number might be high given that Ukraine hasn't done a census since 2000, has very low birth rates, and high emigration rates.

Thanks -- if we assume 30-35 million it is still a significant number of people. The population of Finland when the winter war started in 1939 was 3.7 million people. Whereas the population of the USSR at that time was estimated to 168 million. Russia's population today is around 145 million.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Allegedly a Ukrainian tank from the 35th Marines gets stuck somewhere near Davydov Brod.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Херсонский Вестник

#эксклюзив Танк 18 батальона 35 бригады морской пехоты ВМС Украины в ходе «успешных тактических действий» в районе н.п. Давыдов Брод. Ямы для танка все же имеют значение. Это в очередной раз подтверждает пословицу: «Глаза боятся, руки делают, гузно провонялось!»

t.me

Ukrainian strike lands in Novaya Kahovka, apparently striking a Russian munitions dump.

Colonelcassad

В Новой Каховке ВСУ куда-то попали. Судя по звукам вторичной детонации, горит склад каких-то боеприпасов.

t.me

Russian VDV BTG somewhere near Nikolaev. This confirms earlier info of VDV units in the area.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

DNR police composite unit on the streets of Kherson. It's an obvious attempt to use locals to police locals.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

The North.

Russian strikes landing in Priluki, Chernigov area. Allegedly a munitions dump.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Детонация склада боеприпасов ВСУ в Прилуках после прилета "Искандера".

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes landing in Kharkov.

АГЕНТ ГОСДЕПА

❗По Харькову прилеты

t.me

Russian National Guard near Kharkov, context unclear.

GREY ZONE

Военнослужащие ОМОН ФСВНГ России на Харьковском направлении

t.me

Izyum Salient.

Allegedly a Ukrainian infantry group taken out by Russian forces near Slavyask. The car has Czech plates.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️☠️Джокер и его друзья не пережили встречу со спецназом ️тважных Группа спецназа группировки "О" устроила успешную засаду на машину из Чехии в районе Славянска. Наемники уничтожены, у наших потерь нет. #эксклюзив с фронта t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian soldier allegedly from the 752 MRRgt near Izyum.

GREY ZONE

Боец 752-го мотострелкового полка с Изюмского направления

t.me

LDNR Front.

Alleged Russian ATGM strike on a Ukrainian position near Ugledar.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian KIA being evacuated on the hood of a Humvee ( I think). I believe this is the road out of Lisichansk.

Военный Осведомитель

ВСУ проводят вывоз тел своих убитых солдат из зоны боёв на капоте.

t.me

Fires burn in Severodonetsk, allegedly from Ukrainian artillery strikes on Russian positions.

Dambiev

На мультиспектральных спутниковых снимках пожаров в Северодонецке от 12 июня видно, что ВС Украины наносят из Лисичанска артиллерийские удары по жилым кварталам и медицинским учреждениям города. На одном из снимков отчетливо виден красный крест на крыше здания.

t.me

Fires burn at the Azot factory in Severodonetsk, presumably Russian strikes.

Боевой (Military photographer)

СЕВЕРОДОНЕЦК. Завод "АЗОТ" Больше фотографий смотрите на РИА @rian_ru и @nezhurka и @riaphoto

t.me

Ukrainian Mamba MKII armored cars near Lisichansk as part of allegedly Kraken, an Azov rgt off-shoot that was initially sent to Kharkov.

Неофициальный Безсонов

В сети появилась информация, что эстонские бронемашины "Mamba Mk2 EE", переданные ВСУ, уже засветились в Лисичанске. @NeoficialniyBeZsonoV

t.me

Ukrainian T-72AMT and T-72M1 with K-1 heading to Lisichansk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraninan S-300V spotted near Kramatorsk. It highlights the failure of Russian SEAD-DEAD operations.

Центр Рубеж

В районе Краматорска американский фотокорреспондент Маркус Ям сфотографировал еще не уничтоженную украинскую самоходную пуско-заряжающую установку зенитной ракетной системы С-300В.

t.me

The mayor of Svyatogorsk meets with Denis Pushilin, current head of the DNR. The town recently fell to Russian troops.

Colonelcassad

Мэр недавно освобожденного Святогорска провел встречу с главой ДНР. На Украине уже успели объявить мэра Святогорска предателем, который перешел на сторону Донецкой Народной Республики.

t.me

More strikes land in Donetsk, this time a market.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Head of the DNR Pushilin requests additional Russian military forces to deal with shellings of Donetsk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

ДНР запросила у России дополнительные союзнические силы

Донецкая Народная Республика запрашивает у России дополнительные союзнические силы из-за с увеличения обстрелов Донецка украинскими войсками, заявил глава ДНР... РИА Новости, 14.06.2022

ria.ru

Misc.

Russian Smerch strike, location and context unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian CASEVAC procedure, somewhere in Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia 2S5 somewhere in Ukraine. The fighter next to it may be an irregular.

Центр Рубеж

152-мм САУ 2С5 «Гиацинт» ВС России и её оператор

t.me

Russian National Guard in Ukraine. Location and context unclear.

GREY ZONE

Ребята из Сибирского ОМОН ФСВНГ России действующие на Украине в составе Восточной группировки (“V”)

t.me

Assorted photos of Russian and rebel forces in Ukraine.

Уголок Ситха

Z-Донбасс

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian up-armored Kamaz trucks. Location and context unclear.

Уголок Ситха

БеZумный iVan, яростные дороги Донбасса.

t.me

Russian irregulars from a soccer-team fan base.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian Humvee with Mk-19, location and context unclear.

АГЕНТ ГОСДЕПА

HMMWV ВСУ с автоматическим гранатометом Mk19.

t.me

The Crimean-Tatar volunteer btln Devlet Girey, Ukrainian, with an uparmored truck. The combat value of this formation remains questionable but it clearly has great propaganda value.

Милитарист

Необычный «шушпанцер» крымско-татарского батальона «Девлет Гирей»

t.me

Polish ZKZ WTW Tor in sniper rifle in Ukrainian hands.

Центр Рубеж

Польская 12,7 мм снайперская винтовка ZMT WKW Tor на вооружении ВСУ.

t.me

 

[Feanor]

I'm currently two days behind and I won't be able to catch up until Saturday at the earliest, apologies.