The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor · Jun 12, 2022

ngatimozart said:
Definitely, but it wasn't just German populations. Stalin was a mightily suspicious fulla to say the least.

Yes, Stalin. Just Stalin, only Stalin, and definitely not anybody else... nobody else was complicit in forced resettlement/deportations of millions of ethnic Germans from various areas around Eastern Europe.

In all seriousness I think there was some serious movements made in the first half of the 20th century that had a profound impact on the ethnic map of Eastern Europe. As a result many areas now don't look the same at all, and it went far beyond the policy of one state, nevermind one leader. The reality is that re-litigating those borders would open the door on all kinds of nastiness without any obvious benefit. In my opinion the best way forward is to deal with the reality that exists today, and let history be history. This especially applies to those with historic great power ambitions, be it Peter the Great, or a Poland from sea to sea.

STURM · Jun 12, 2022

ngatimozart said:
Definitely, but it wasn't just German populations. Stalin was a mightily suspicious fulla to say the least.

The forced migration was due to the changing of borders; agreed to at Yalta. Germans from Pomerania, Silesia and Prussia moved westwards; they had no choice in the matter. Poles also were relocated; parts of their territory were given to the Soviets [in present day Ukraine] and in return the Polish border was moved westwards. Naturally ethnic Germans in placed such as Poland and Bohemia also had to relocate.

Ethnic Germans moved by Stalin were the so called Volga Germans who first moved to Russia during the time of Katherine The Great. The ever paranoid Stalin also moved the Chechian population to Kazahkstan; despite the fact that many Chechians fought in the Soviet army and that the Germans never reached Chechnya. Another group who got relocated; courtesy of Stalin; were the Tartars.

ngatimozart · Jun 12, 2022

STURM said:
The forced migration was due to the changing of borders; agreed to at Yalta. Germans from Pomerania, Silesia and Prussia moved westwards; they had no choice in the matter. Poles also were relocated; parts of their territory were given to the Soviets [in present day Ukraine] and in return the Polish border was moved westwards. Naturally ethnic Germans in placed such as Poland and Bohemia also had to relocate.

Ethnic Germans moved by Stalin were the so called Volga Germans who first moved to Russia during the time of Katherine The Great. The ever paranoid Stalin also moved the Chechian population to Kazahkstan; despite the fact that many Chechians fought in the Soviet army and that the Germans never reached Chechnya. Another group who got relocated; courtesy of Stalin; were the Tartars.

The funny thing about Stalin is that he was a Georgian and yet he was probably the most rabid Russian nationalist around.

STURM · Jun 12, 2022

It says a lot about the Soviet system [one automatically assumed to have been dominated by ethnic Russians] that a Georgian [later replaced by a Ukrainian] could get to the very top. Then again this was no ordinary Georgian. Stalin had been an early Bolshevik and got himself into Lenin's inner circle.

vikingatespam · Jun 12, 2022

ngatimozart said:
vikingatespam: As of 0900 US EST, liveuamap is claiming UKR attacks in the Kherson region. Looking for corroboration for this. deepstatemap.live doesnt show anything going on in that region.

In future please provide sources for claims that you make. It's required by our rules.

Apologies...in this case,

Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather...

liveuamap.com

DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine

News of Russia's war against Ukraine on the map

deepstatemap.live

Todjaeger · Jun 12, 2022

ngatimozart said:
Yes, I did a search for maps and most that I found exhibited the same boundaries. I also think that at some stage the Russian empire included parts of or all of Poland as well. Interestingly enough the Kalingrad Oblast exclave is only a recent addition because it used to be Prussia or east Prussia until 1945 when the German population migrated west in a hurry for some strange reason. It was originally founded by the Teutonic Knights way back. After 1991 Estonia and Poland didn't want it because of the high Russian population and subsequent problems that could cause. Whilst West Germany was to busy absorbing East Germany that it didn't want its traditional land back as an exclave either. Probably a wise decision.

IIRC Germany waived all claims to former German/Prussian territories around the former Konigsberg now Kalingrad back in 1990. Again IIRC this was a condition for Soviet assent to the reunification of East and West Germany.

ngatimozart said:
I disagree and I think that the source you cite isn't the best around. problem is anytime a govt is turfed or a President is voted out and some people don't like it the CIA is always blamed for it. In reality Yanukovych was turfed out because he refused to carry out the wishes of the Parliament and that was to apply for EU membership in favour of a deal with Russia. So he was impeached with a majority of 328 of 447 voting for impeachment. Ukraine President Yanukovich impeached | News | Al Jazeera & Ukrainian MPs vote to oust President Yanukovych - BBC News. So who was the set the "dangerous precedent". He had also imprisoned the Opposition Leader Yulia Tymoshenko on trumped up charges so he had to go because he was selling out to Russia which made him a traitor.

If one looks at Yanukovych's history at least back as far as ~2004, one should readily see a number of rather glaring issues. The Orange Revolution of 2004-2005 comes immediately to mind. Associated with that is the assassination attempt against an opposing candidate for the Ukrainian Presidency (Viktor Yushchenko) and the Ukraine Supreme Court calling for a repeat runoff election as a result of reports of widespread electoral fraud and voter intimidation in favour of Yanukovych.

The way I have read that, is that Yanukovych was already quite unpopular with a sizeable segment of Ukrainian society. For people to continue to make or repeat claims that his ouster in 2014 was the handiwork of the CIA, particularly given just how much of the Ukraine has supposedly been penetrated by Russian intelligence operatives and/or assets...

ngatimozart said:
Definitely, but it wasn't just German populations. Stalin was a mightily suspicious fulla to say the least.

All too true. The Crimean Tatars (not Tartars...) were one such group that had lived in and formerly ruled the Crimean Peninsula, and until the end of the 19th century had been the largest ethnic population living in Crimea. It is possible that as large as nearly half this population perished as a result of the forced relocation following the end of WWII, and the right of Crimean Tatars to return to their homeland was not restored until 1989, long after Stalin (and several of his successors) had died. Interestingly, Greek communities in the areas around Crimea and the Sea of Azov were relocated by the Soviets just prior to WWII, even though there had been an ethnic Greek presence in the region long before the rise of the Kievan Rus and there had even been a small Italian presence in the region dating back to the days of the Roman Empire. In many respects this presence was merely following that of the earlier Greek settlements of centuries earlier.

kato · Jun 12, 2022

Todjaeger said:
IIRC Germany waived all claims to former German/Prussian territories around the former Konigsberg now Kalingrad back in 1990. Again IIRC this was a condition for Soviet assent to the reunification of East and West Germany.

German claims were waived in the Treaty of Moscow and Treaty of Warsaw - both from 1970, not 1990.

The Treaty of Warsaw - with Poland - was formally conditional to a final peace settlement though, which was enacted with the 2+4 treaty in 1990 (active from 1992), and was followed by a second bilateral treaty between Germany and Poland in 1991 that mostly reiterated the Treaty of Warsaw but added sections on treatment of minorities.

Kaliningrad is not subject to the 2+4 treaty or any treaties between Germany and Poland. The 2+4 treaty (by omitting it) effectively defines it as a territory not part of the Germany as a country at the time of reunification. However, this does not say anything about whether any of the signatory country considers a German claim to the territory in the past, present or future as valid or active, or whether they do not. Including Germany itself.

From the German legal perspective defined around 1970 Kaliningrad is a German territory, but not part of the German nation; it is administrated by the Soviet Union, since 1991 by the Russian Federation in lieu of it without formally acknowledging the Russian Federation as legal successor to the Soviet Union.

Feanor · Jun 12, 2022

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian artillery fires against an apparent Ukrainian crossing point across the Ingulets river near Davydov Brod. The crossing appears to be a rope and raft type.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian artillery fires allegedly against a Ukrainian mortar position near Davydov Brod.

Неофициальный Безсонов

#эксклюзив Уничтожение минометной позиции 35-ой бригады ВСУ точным артиллерийским попаданием в районе н.п. Давыдов Брод, Херсонская область. Материалом поделился главный носитель эксклюзива на Николаево-Херсонском направлении «Херсонский вестник» @NeoficialniyBeZsonoV

t.me

Ukraine's 18th Marine Btln, 35th Marine Bde, apparently lost it's commander KIA, deputy commander and a company commander WIA, and ~100 service members in a failed attack. The unit is now refusing further orders to attack.

Херсонский Вестник

‼️‼️‼️По информации предоставленной от военнослужащего 18 батальона морской пехоты 35 бригады Военно-морских сил Украины стала известна шокирующая информация о потерях. В ходе контрнаступления с форсированием реки Ингулец на Николаево-Криворожском направлении в районе н.п. Великое Артаково...

t.me

Russian strikes, allegedly around Nikolaev.

ВЕСТИ КРЫМ

Эксклюзивные кадры успешного поражения техники украинских боевиков на Николаевском направлении. Артиллерийские орудия, склады с боеприпасами и зенитные установки - были обнаружены с помощью беспилотников и уничтожены. Скрыться от летающих глаз невозможно, передает военный корреспондент Вести...

t.me

Russian Msta-S strike hits something on tracks, I can't make it out. Location unclear but a piece of this footage is included in the video above.

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vk.com

Ukraine has apparently carried out a Tochka strike against the Elektromash factory in Novaya Kahovka.

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vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Последствия вчерашнего украинского ракетного удара «Точками-У» по заводу "Электромаш" (Завод Крупных Электрических Машин) в городе Новая Каховка, Херсонской области. Зафиксированная локация: 46°44'37.37" С 33°22'32.69" В

t.me

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vk.com

Russia allegedly hit Ukrainian munition dumps near Nikolaev.

Херсонский Вестник

⚡️⚡️⚡️Под Николаевом националисты потеряли сразу три склада с боеприпасами‼️‼️‼️ Авиацией ВКС России были нанесены авиационные удары по складам боеприпасов и скоплению военной техники националистов под Николаевом. В результате точных попаданий националисты понесли большие потери в живой силе...

t.me

Russia has raised up the Serna landing boat sunk by a Bayraktar strike near Zmeiniy.

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vk.com

Arkan ATGMs allegedly in the combat load of a BMD-4M near Nikolaev. Note we haven't had sighting of VDV in that area any time recently.

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vk.com

Police in Kherson have been spotted wearing a new uniform with patches that say "Russian Police".

vk.com

LDNR front.

Allegedly a 2S3 strike on the positions of the 30th Mech Brigade, Ukrainian, near Avdeevka.

WarGonzo

⚡️Горловское направление⚡️НМ ДНР бьёт Акацией⚡️ В распоряжении проекта @wargonzo оказалось видео точечного попадания по позициям 30-ой бригады ВСУ на Горловском направлении. Удар нанесён 152 мм гаубицей «Акация». 30-я отдельная механизированная бригада ВСУ в настоящее время является основным...

t.me

Russian strike on Bakhmut/Artemovsk.

Военный Осведомитель

ВКС РФ не забыли поздравить с уходящим праздником ВСУ в Бахмуте

t.me

Artillery impacts, center of Donetsk.

Неофициальный Безсонов

Видео артиллерийского обстрела центрального района Донецка. @NeoficialniyBeZsonoV

t.me

Apparently a UXO 155mm round from a CAESAR howitzer was found in Donetsk.

We have reports of civilians trapped in the Azot factory in Severodonetsk. Ukrainian fighters are asking to exit the factory together with the civilians.

Украинские боевики потребовали выпустить их с завода "Азот" с заложниками

Украинские боевики, заблокированные на северодонецком заводе "Азот", требуют выпустить их в Лисичанск вместе с заложниками, рассказал РИА Новости источник в... РИА Новости, 11.06.2022

ria.ru

Apparently the last bridge connecting Severodonetsk with Lisichansk is destroyed.

Военкор Котенок

Разрушен последний мост, соединяющие Северодонецк с Лисичанском. Таким образом блокированные в промзоне украинские боевики окончательно потеряли возможность выйти из города. @voenkorKotenok

t.me

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vk.com

Something has caught fire at the Azot factory.

Милитарист

Пожар на северодонецком заводе «Азот»

t.me

Something has caught fire at the Uglegorskaya powerplant.

Colonelcassad

Что-то горит на Углегорской ТЭС.

t.me

Mariupol'.

Russia is clearing mines out of the harbor area in Mariupol' using a PTS with improvised armor.

Транспортер ПТС в роли морского тральщика

gurkhan.blogspot.com

Вынужденный тральщик.

Плавающий тягач ПТС с локальным бронированием. Бронирование идёт только по левому борту. Это связано с тем, что с этой же стороны идёт трос-трал, которым сапёры пытаются обезвредить оставленные украинцами мины ПДМ-1.

shusharmor.livejournal.com

Colonelcassad

Саперы новороссийской военно-морской базы проводят разминирование акватории мариупольского пляжа. ВСУ, опасаясь высадки российской морской пехоты, забросали прибрежные воды противодесантными минами ПДМ-1М. Разминирование проводится следующим образом. Два плавающих транспортера ПТС движутся...

t.me

Вынужденный тральщик.

Плавающий тягач ПТС с локальным бронированием. Бронирование идёт только по левому борту. Это связано с тем, что с этой же стороны идёт трос-трал, которым сапёры пытаются обезвредить оставленные украинцами мины ПДМ-1.

shusharmor.livejournal.com

Russian Shmel' armored gunboats on the Azov sea. They were previous spotted in Mariupol'. While they are quite old, they are reliable, and simple to operate.

Добрый Морячок

#новости #фотозаклепки #эксклюзив ⚡️⚡️"Астраханские шмели" где-то на Азове. Июнь 2022г. Удивительно живучий проект речных бронекатеров! (пр.1204). Все три катера - это долгожители 327-го гвардейского Краснознамённого дивизиона артиллерийских кораблей. Немного о "шмелях" выкладывал здесь и...

t.me

Russia.

Iskander launches, Belgorod region.

Повёрнутые на Z войне

Белгород заснул, проснулись Искандеры. Традиционно

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Сам момент запуска ракет

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Запущенный из Белгородской области "Искандер" спешит к своей цели в Харькове.

t.me

We have reports of a Ukrainian infiltrator team taking out some Russian military vehicles at a base in Bryansk region. Allegedly some of the infiltrators were captured. No evidence so far though.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Ka-52 being hauled off for repairs.

Уголок Ситха

Ка-52 везут на ремонт из зоны СВО. Belgorod SPOTTERS TEAM

t.me

Feanor · Jun 12, 2022

Misc.

Russian artillery strikes, allegedly Krasnopol'. Location and context unclear.

ANNA NEWS

vk.com

Ukrainian T-64B1M captured, possibly knocked out. We've seen one before, and I'm not sure if this is the same one. Warning footage of corpses.

Повёрнутые на Z войне

Бойцы группы "О" затрофеили Булат, это ВСУшная модернизация Т-64. Внутри мёртвый мехвод.

t.me

A captured Ukrainia Kozak armored car. Location and context unclear.

Уголок Ситха

Трофейный украинский бронеавтомобиль *КОЗАК*

t.me

An overrun Ukrainian position with a Soviet Maxim gun and a DP-27, allegedly footage from Pacific Fleet Marines.

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vk.com

Another Russian Su-25 returns to base after a MANPADS hit. On the one hand this is a testament to the resilience and survivability of the aircraft. On the other hand, this isn't news, and while it's better then getting shot down, it takes the aircraft out of action for a long time if not permanently. If this becomes a pattern, Russia will have to limit it's use of them or change tactics.

Fighterbomber

Ещё один грач вернул домой лётчика целым и невредимым после встречи с ракетой ПЗРК. При попадании ракеты в двигатель обычно возникает пожар, который иногда удаётся потушить штатной системой пожаротушения. Летчик быстренько выключает отказавший двигатель, перекрывает пожарный кран (подачу кероса...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian forces have been spotted operating a rare BTR-4MV and a BMP-1TS. The former is a prototype BTR-4 upgrade that wasn't in production pre-war. It's unclear whether this is just a prototype vehicle sent to the front or if production of the type has begun.

ВСУ в боях применяют уникальные боевые машины

gurkhan.blogspot.com

Apparently Ukrainian territorial defense mounting a improvised RCWS on a Lada passenger car.

Russian military using one of its armored trains in Ukraine. Note the BMP-2s, they're used as gun platforms. The tank can also carry an MBT on those cars for a similar purpose. These were earlier spotted passing through Kherson region into Zaporozhye region, but it's unclear where they are now.

Повёрнутые на Z войне

Бронепоезд группы "О"

t.me

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vk.com

Russian Buk-M3 operating in Ukraine.

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Brief interview with a Russian Marines UAV team that does firecorrection for artillery.

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A Russian T-72B3, uparmored with rocks, Syria-style. The lack of tactical markings raises questions. Could this be a captured T-72B3 in Ukrainian hands? Is this even in the war zone?

Сирийский, так сказать, опыт

Камушки в качестве защиты. А еще в Сирии были бордюрные камни... Кстати, достаточно аккуратно сделаны

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Russian repair unit working in support of the war effort. Note at the end we can see the tail end of a BTR-60. It's highly unlikely that Russia is returning the type to service. It's far likelier that it's one of the BTR-60 chassis based engineer command vehicles.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Various uparmored Russian trucks.

"Бурушка"

Бурушкой звали коня Ильи Муромца. Второй импровизированный бронегрузовик УРАЛ из одного подразделения ВС РФ. Источник: https://vk.com/feed?w=wall-151878956_2752213

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Гантрак "С иллюминатором"

УРАЛ с импровизированным бронированием. Военные мягко намекают, что производство Уралов с бронёй стоит нарастить как можно скорее. Источник: https://vk.com/feed?w=wall-151878956_2752213

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

NATO/EU.

A Czech machinegun in the hands of allegedly a Belorussian volunteer fighter, fighting for Ukraine. Interesting damage to the flash hider.

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vk.com

There are reports that Finland will supply armored vehicles to Ukraine. Finland currently operates badly outdated BMP-2s and MT-LBs, which make natural candidates.

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vk.com

An train in Romania carrying allegedly Italian Puma APCs and what I think are Centauro MGS (the post calls them Strykers). It's also carrying a bunch of trucks and some cargo containers.

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vk.com

Lithuania has purchased 6 Estonian VTOL UAVs for Ukraine.

Военный обозреватель

Литва закупила для Украины шесть эстонских разведывательных БПЛА EOS C VTOL. #Украина @new_militarycolumnist

t.me

UK company QinetiQ is planning to supply 10 mine clearing robots to Ukraine.

China army

Британская оборонная компания QinetiQ поставит Украине 10 саперных роботов TALON для разминирования территорий. ТТХ: длина - 86,4 см, высота - 42,7 см, максимальная масса от 52 до 71 кг (в зависимости от установленного комплекта целевого оборудования), может брать на себя полезную нагрузку...

t.me

swerve · Jun 12, 2022

STURM said:
It says a lot about the Soviet system [one automatically assumed to have been dominated by ethnic Russians] that a Georgian [later replaced by a Ukrainian] could get to the very top. Then again this was no ordinary Georgian. Stalin had been an early Bolshevik and got himself into Lenin's inner circle.

Stalin wasn't replaced by a Ukrainian. Khrushchev was Russian, born in Russia to Russian parents & speaking Russian. He moved to Donetsk when he was 14 because his father had got a job there.

T.C.P · Jun 12, 2022

'They're Wiping Us From Earth': Evading Russian Artillery With a Ukrainian Military Unit

A trip to the front lines in Ukraine reveals Russia's ’scorched earth‘ strategy and the resistance fighters trying to hold on.

www.rollingstone.com

Journalist in Donbas. The journalist is very close ot the intense fighting and interviews members of the UA elite scouting units. The central points are the ones we already know, russian artilleries overhwelming numbers and depleting UA arty stock. I liked the interesting little details.

The UA forces mention the small russian drones, they talks about how Orlan(and possible other small drones) are heard all the time, but they cannot see them as they are too small and have no idea how to bring them down.

The scouting unit says that even when they have detected russian arty close to their own art ranges, they dont have enough guns or shells to take them out and have to be very conservative with their targets. (this explains a lot of the video trend I have been noticing in the donbass area for the last 4 weeks or so, UA artillery videos are lower in number from that front, but the videos getting released show them hitting grouped up russian soldiers or clustered artillery)

The last interviewee mentioned how he had to discipline one of his unit members who had an active cellphone to talk to his mother, wife and gf for 3 hours and how their position got bombed badly all night for it. The interviewee says that Russia traced the calls and located them, that could be true, but they could just as well have been spotted by recon drones. The soldier also talks about losing 6 of his closest friends on their first patrol on this front.

Overall the article is worth the read.

Feanor · Jun 12, 2022

swerve said:
Stalin wasn't replaced by a Ukrainian. Khrushchev was Russian, born in Russia to Russian parents & speaking Russian. He moved to Donetsk when he was 14 because his father had got a job there.

Sort of. He was born in Kursk region right on the Ukrainian border. He then moved to Ukraine as a teenager and lived there for a long time. This led him to identify with Ukraine quite strongly while openly admitting that he was Russian ethnically. If we take nationality rather then ethnicity, and if nationality and nationalism weren't bad words in the Soviet Union (they literally redefined nationality "национальность" to mean ethnicity) he would probably identify with the Ukrainian nation.

Feanor · Jun 12, 2022

Further discussions of Western involvement in the Euromaidan without direct support evidence is banned effective immediately. There is space for legitimate discussion of Western involvement in it, but it is extremely narrow. The continuing unsupported claims of involvement by CIA/MI6/[insert shadowy agency here] are counterproductive and don't add anything of value to the discussion. If you want to argue that someone influenced the Euromaidan, be prepared to show how with sources.

ngatimozart · Jun 12, 2022

ISW Upgrades. These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8
June 8, 6:30 pm ET

Main Points.

Russian forces continued assaults against Ukrainian positions in Severodonetsk. Russian forces simultaneously seek to outflank Ukrainian positions in the region to avoid the necessity of making an opposed crossing of the Siversky Donets river.
Russian forces are continuing operations around Sviatohirsk and west of Lyman to link up with operations southeast of Izyum and drive on Slovyansk.
Russian forces are intensifying their operations in northwestern Kherson Oblast in response to recent Ukrainian counterattacks.
Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are focusing ground and artillery attacks near the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border and likely are seeking to strengthen control of the highway between Vasylivka-Orikhiv and Huliapole to support operations in northeast Zaporizhia.
Russian-backed occupation authorities are attempting to set conditions for the political integration of occupied areas into the Russian Federation but are likely acting independently and in an incoherent manner due to the lack of a unifying occupation authority.
Russian forces intensified psychological and information operations to degrade Ukrainian morale.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Russian forces are escalating the use of psychological and information operations to damage the morale of Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 8 that Russian forces are sending threatening messages to the personal devices of Ukrainian servicemen calling on them to betray their service oaths, lay down their arms, surrender, or defect to Russia.[1] The GUR reported that Russian forces are sending messages on a variety of platforms including SMS, Telegram, Viber, Signal, and WhatsApp and that the messages use location information to threaten to harm Ukrainian soldiers or their family members. Ukrainian military expert Dmytro Snegirov additionally noted that Russian propagandists are conducting informational and psychological campaigns to spoil the morale of Ukrainian troops by disseminating information that the battle for Severodonetsk will become the “next Mariupol.”[2] These information and psychological attacks likely seek to lower the morale of Ukrainian servicemen as operations on multiple axes of advance continue to generate high causalities on both the Ukrainian and Russian sides.

Russian military commanders continue to face force generation challenges. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian military enlistment offices in Crimea are falsifying the results of mandatory medical exams administered during the summer conscription period to maximize the number of recruits.[3] Russian police also arrested a man who threw a molotov cocktail and set fire to a local Crimean administration building in protest of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, likely indicating growing discontent with Russian war efforts in Crimea.[4] ISW has previously reported that forced mobilization in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) is exacerbating social tensions and sparking protests in Donbas.[5] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that unspecified elements of the 106th and 76th Guards Airborne Assault Divisions refused to participate in combat in Luhansk Oblast and returned to Russia. The 76th Guards Airborne Assault Division previously participated in assaults on Kyiv, Izyum, and Popasna, which has likely led to the demoralization of troops.[6]

Full article at link above. The pdf can be downloaded here.

ngatimozart · Jun 12, 2022

ISW Upgrades. These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9
June 9, 6:45 pm ET

Main Points.

Russian officials are increasingly taking over governmental positions in occupied Ukrainian territory, advancing the Kremlin's likely efforts to annex occupied areas of Ukraine into Russia as an okrug (federal district).
Russian forces continued to fight for the Azot industrial zone in Severodonetsk under the cover of heavy artillery fire.
Russian forces made marginal gains north of Slovyansk but are likely to face difficulties assaulting the city itself because of the tactical challenges posed by crossing the Siverskyi Donets River.
Russian forces made incremental advances to the east of Bakhmut and will continue efforts to cut Ukrainian lines of communication to the northeast of Bakhmut.
Russian forces are likely engaged in limited fighting along occupied frontiers in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian forces continue to focus on strengthening defensive lines along the Southern Axis and are intensifying ground attacks in northeastern Zaporizhia Oblast with the support of troop and equipment rotations.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Russian forces are continuing to deploy outdated military equipment to Ukraine to replace losses. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 9 that Russian forces are mining Kherson Oblast with mines from the 1950s to defend against recent Ukrainian counterattacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast.[1] The GUR stated that Russian forces moved these mines from Russia’s Rostov Oblast to the Kherson area despite the fact the mines were meant to be destroyed. The GUR claimed that some of the mines detonated during the transportation processes and killed Russian sappers from the 49th Combined Arms Army. The GUR’s report is consistent with previous statements that Russian forces are moving old and obsolete equipment to Ukraine to make up for equipment losses, including deploying T-62 tanks to the Melitopol area and pulling MLRS and 152mm howitzers from storage in Irkutsk, Siberia.[2]

Russian military command continues to face pervasive issues with force generation. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian officials in Luhansk Oblast have had to reduce their mobilization efforts due to widespread protests against aggressive mobilization efforts that have taken a toll on the labor market in Luhansk.[3] Attacks on Russian military recruitment offices are additionally continuing.[4] An unidentified assailant threw a Molotov cocktail at the military commissariat in Vladivostok, which is the eighteenth such reported attack on Russian territory since the beginning of the war. As Russian officials escalate mobilization efforts over the background of continued losses in Ukraine, they will continue to run the risk of instigating public dissent and pushback against such recruitment practices.

Full article at link above. The pdf can be downloaded here.

ngatimozart · Jun 12, 2022

ISW Upgrades. These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10
June 10, 4:00 pm ET

Main Points.

Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for Western weapons systems due to Russia’s artillery superiority.
Russian forces are continuing ground assaults within Severodonetsk but have yet to secure full control of the city as of June 10.
Russian forces are preparing to renew offensive operations toward Slovyansk and made minor gains to the north of the city.
Russian forces are continuing efforts to cut the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and conducting assaults on settlements near the highway.
Russian troops reportedly took control of the Kinburn Spit in the northern Black Sea, which will allow them to exert further control of the Black Sea coast.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for more-sophisticated Western-provided weapons systems amid reports of growing Russian artillery superiority. Several Western media outlets reported in the last 48 hours that Ukrainian military and government officials are increasingly highlighting the fact that Ukrainian troops are trapped in an “artillery war” on critical frontlines and are at a distinct disadvantage in terms of artillery systems.[1] Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky stated that Russian troops possess 10 to 15 artillery pieces to every one Ukrainian artillery piece and that Ukrainian forces have almost completely exhausted their artillery ammunition.[2] Considering the current prevalence of protracted positional battles, especially in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, Ukrainian forces urgently need fresh supplies of artillery systems. As Ukrainian forces use the last of their stocks of Soviet-era weapon systems and munitions, they will require consistent Western support to transition to new supply chains of ammunition and key artillery systems. Effective artillery will be increasingly decisive in the largely static fighting in eastern Ukraine.

Russian military authorities continue to struggle with force generation and are facing the consequences of aggressive forced mobilization efforts. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed they captured a new group of Russian prisoners of war who reportedly were recruited through a private military company and told they were going to be providing security services but were instead sent to the frontline in Luhansk.[3] The Ukrainian General Staff similarly reported that units comprised of forcibly mobilized personnel are refusing to participate in combat in the Donbas due to high losses.[4] The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) cited intercepted phone calls and claimed that Russian soldiers are refusing to fight and are being threatened with prosecution—despite their lack of equipment and weapons within their units.[5] Such reports are consistent with previous reports that Russian forced mobilization efforts are self-destructive and may result in mounting discontent and declining morale and discipline.[6]

Full article at link above. The pdf can be downloaded here.

ngatimozart · Jun 12, 2022

ISW Upgrades. These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11
June 11, 6:00 pm ET

Main Points.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground offensives within the Severodonetsk area, but Ukrainian defenders retain control of the industrial area of the city as of June 11.
Russian forces likely resumed efforts to cut the T1303 Hirske-Lysyschansk highway and launched failed assaults on settlements along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychank highway.
Russian forces continued assaults on settlements southwest and southeast of Izyum in an effort to resume drives on Slovyansk.
Ukrainian forces likely resumed counteroffensives northwest of Kherson City on June 11, south of their previous operations.
Russian occupation officials distributed the first batch of Russian passports in Kherson City and Melitopol.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Ukrainian intelligence assesses that the Russian military is extending its planning to fight a longer war, though Russian force generation and reserves likely remain poor. Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky stated the GUR received confirmed information that Russian forces have extended their war planning for the next 120 days, extending to October 2022.[1] Skibitsky said that Russian forces will adjust the plan depending on their successes in Donbas and noted that the Russian General Staff is modifying their invasion plans almost every month.[2] Skibitsky’s statement likely indicates the Kremlin has, at a minimum, acknowledged it cannot achieve its objectives in Ukraine quickly and is further adjusting its military objectives in an attempt to correct the initial deficiencies in the invasion of Ukraine. Skibitsky also claimed that Russian forces have an additional 40 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in reserve, after having already deployed 103 BTGs to Ukraine. This report is highly unlikely to mean Russian forces retain 40 full-strength and effective BTGs in Russia. At most, these “BTGs” are likely small collections of personnel cobbled together from other units. The Russian military is additionally unlikely to be holding such a significant portion of its force in reserve due to continuing manpower shortages in existing frontline units.

Ukrainian officials continued to increase their requests for Western offensive and defensive equipment, particularly regarding capabilities necessary to combat Russian artillery superiority. Head of the Ukrainian Northern Operational Command Dmytro Krasilnikov reported that Ukrainian forces are experiencing a shortage in long-range artillery systems, while Russian artillery continues to overpower Ukrainian infantry. Ukrainian Advisor to Cabinet of Ministers Oleksandr Danylyuk stated that Russian forces adopted a new unspecified strategy that allows them to make more careful maneuvers.[3] Danylyuk added that Russian forces have more resources than Ukraine, which would prove advantageous in a protracted conflict. Severodonetsk Mayor Oleksandr Stryuk said that Ukrainian defenders need long-range artillery and air defense systems to strike against advancing Russian troops in Luhansk Oblast.[4] Ukrainian forces will need consistent Western support, particularly regarding artillery systems, as Russian numbers and resources take their toll on Ukrainian forces in increasingly positional warfare.

Full article at link above. The pdf can be downloaded here.

ngatimozart · Jun 12, 2022

ISW Upgrades. These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12
June 12, 6:30 pm ET

Main Points.

Russian forces continued ground assaults in Severodonetsk and blew up bridges that connect Severodonetsk to Lysychansk across the Siverskyi Donets River in a likely attempt to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that run from Bakhmut to Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.
Russian forces made incremental gains to the southeast of Izyum and will likely continue attempts to advance on Slovyansk from the northwest.
Russian forces continued efforts to push Ukrainian troops back from contested frontlines northeast of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces focused on maintaining defensive lines along the Southern Axis.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Russian forces continue to struggle with generating additional combat-capable units. The UK Ministry of Defense reported on June 12 that Russian forces have been trying to produce more combat units by preparing to deploy third battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from some units over the last few weeks.[1] The UK MoD noted that Russian brigades and regiments normally can generate two BTGs, but doing so leaves the parent units largely hollow shells. The UK MOD concluded that these third BTGs will likely be understaffed and rely on recruits and mobilized reservists. Their deployment will likely adversely impact the capacity of their parent units to regenerate their combat power for quite some time. BTGs generated in this fashion will not have the combat power of regular BTGs. It will be important not to overestimate Russian reserves produced in this way by counting these third BTGs as if they were normal BTGs.

Pro-Russian sources are continuing to spread disinformation to sow anxiety and resentment among the Ukrainian population. Russian Telegram channels reportedly began spreading a fake mobilization order on June 12 that they falsely attributed to the Ukrainian General Staff. The fake order called for the mobilization of all eligible Ukrainian women to report for duty by “June 31” (sic).

Full article at link above. The pdf can be downloaded here.

STURM · Jun 13, 2022

Todjaeger said:
Interestingly, Greek communities in the areas around Crimea and the Sea of Azov were relocated by the Soviets just prior to WWII

I had no idea there were ethnic Greeks in the area. On another matter I do recall reading somewhere of Greek troops landing in the Odessa area during the Russian Civil War.

Todjaeger said:
The Crimean Tatars (not Tartars...) were one such group that had lived in and formerly ruled the Crimean Peninsula, and until the end of the 19th century had been the largest ethnic population living in Crimea.

Indeed. There's a distinction between the Tartars and the Crimean Tartars. If I recall correctly another group which got relocated by Stalin were the Kalmuks.

Todjaeger · Jun 13, 2022

STURM said:
I had no idea there were ethnic Greeks in the area. On another matter I do recall reading somewhere of Greek troops landing in the Odessa area during the Russian Civil War.

Indeed, on the present day site of Odessa a Greek settlement had been established some time in the 6th or 7th century BCE, and there were a scattering of other Greek settlements around what is now known as the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Given how far back these settlements were founded, much of the then Greek populations intermarried with other groups that were either native to the area, or later migrated/settled in the region. However, there had been Greek/Hellenistic colonies like the Bosporan Kingdom, a Greco-Scythian state. At times the kingdom was a client-state of the Roman Empire, whilst other times it was actually part of a Roman province (during the reign of Emperor Nero IIRC).

AFAIK most of the current ethnic Greeks in the region are descendants of ethnic Greeks who migrated to the region in a number of waves from Anatolia following the fall of the Byzantine Empire and successor states starting around 1460.

The above history, as well as the histories of a number of other groups which currently and/or formerly could be found in the region, is one of the reasons why I have a very hard time taking statements about Russian "historical claims" to certain regions.

To continue the history lesson a bit, Odessa was established by a decree in 1790 by Catherine II (Catherine the Great) even though the area had been settled at various times over the preceding 2,000 years. There are cities which had been founded by European colonists in the New World (North, Central & South America) centuries before this decree had been made.

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