The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[OPSSG]

Lack of tactical thinking behind Chechen movement

1. In urban warfare, situational awareness is poor. The US Army video below on exterior movement techniques has the required thinking process to avoid dying — the use of smoke & rapid movement buy time for a fellow solider to get to safety.

2. In an earlier post in this thread, I shared that in the Battle of Marawi, the Philippines Army, fired single shots at every relevant window, every 10 secs to suppress the enemy — when crossing a danger area. If the Pinoys are suppressing 5 specific windows, their ammo consumption rate is about 30 rounds per minute (for the 5 soldiers) or 150 rounds in 5 minutes. It is NOT spray and pray. If you spray and pray, 5 soldiers will easily use 150 rounds per minute (or 750 rounds in 5 minutes).

3. There are specific tactics for retrieving objects like enemy weapons at danger areas. I use 5 mins in my example, as it is the minimum amount of time to move to and search a dead body to retrieve intelligence and secure enemy weapons. Shooting 750 rounds wildly in 5 minutes is not suppression.

Chechen soldier getting shot... The guy ran into the open to collect a rifle, before his squad started providing enough suppressive fire. I expect @OPSSG is going to have a quite a few things to say about their tactics and fire discipline.

4. @T.C.P, let me apologise for being direct.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516677149184315394

5. In the prior video shared by you, we will not know if the Chechens are aiming at a target or at multiple targets — suppression usually means a team of 3 to 5 nearly hitting every enemy shooter location — they are not John Wick. Also you are perpetuating a suppressive fire myth that equates volume with suppression. Poorly directed fire that fails to convince an adversary he could be hit is ineffective. Increasing rate or volume of fire doesn’t change that.

6. At a danger area, soldiers in the section being fired upon, often will not know where the enemy is hidden, when they are shot at. Cross the street and take cover — I don’t understand the desire to stand in the middle of a street — it makes the Chechen a target; and he was shot. Weird reaction to fire. They are standing around except for the one who got hit.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516543274391121928

7. I really don’t want to comment more on the Chechens, as it bores me. There is no tactical thinking behind their movements.

 

[OPSSG]

Significant Russian movements reported

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516676088025464835

Past Russian exercises rarely involve more than one military district. Vostok-2018, the largest exercise since the Cold War, pitched two military districts (Central and Eastern) against each other, but a multi-district coordination of the scale being attempted in Ukraine, this week, was never practiced — the Russian advance involves 2 military districts, elements of at least 4 Russian armies, 2 "separatist" corps and a tank division. Early reports state that:

• Russian long-range fires & probing attacks continue
• Russian forces have reached outskirts of Lozove
• Russian forces have taken control of Kreminna & are pushing toward Zarichne and Torske
• Russian forces have reportedly also launched an attack south of Izium towards Slovyansk.

 

[Vivendi]

Norway announced today that 100 Mistral SHORAD systems have been shipped to Ukraine, they have already arrived. Norske luftvernsystem er sende til Ukraina – NRK Norge – Oversikt over nyheter fra ulike deler av landet

That's basically 100% of the Mistral systems Norway got...

Finland is also shipping more weapons, no announcement have been made about what, when and how much. Finland to provide more defence materiel assistance to Ukraine - Puolustusministeriö (defmin.fi)

 

[Vivendi]

Report from a Russian village:

State television praises Russian soldiers who are shown freeing Ukrainians from their fascist government. It is a government which, many Russians believe, has been killing Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens for the last eight years since the war in Ukraine first began.

"I am not a politician but I approve of the special operation", Sergey Muraviev’s aunt Svetlana told ITV News. “If he [Putin] didn’t behave like this then maybe here too in Russia it would be a lot worse than it is now."

This is Vladimir Putin’s heartland. In the villages and towns of this region, people are poor. Some of them can see the giant pipeline which takes gas to Europe but not to them. They say that Putin has ordered the state energy company Gazprom to connect them to the pipeline. Just as Putin cares for them, they believe he cares for the people of Ukraine. “I think our president behaves correctly", Svetlana Chernetsova told ITV News.“ There may be some qualities he has that some Russian citizens do not agree with, but his actions are always aimed at not capturing territory but at helping. He gave humanitarian aid to everyone. Whenever anyone asked for aid, he always helped. ”These beliefs are already being passed down to the next generation. Russian schoolchildren have been asked to write letters to soldiers, encouraging them in their ‘heroic’ activities in Ukraine.

After his death, local schoolchildren wrote Sergey Muraviev letters and drew him pictures - of a tank with a Russian flag under a smiling sky and of a ship painted in the Russian colours with missiles and aircraft flying overhead. Muraviev’s aunt Svetlana works in the local cultural centre. She said she asks the children who have not yet gone to serve in the army whether they are “afraid” to go to Ukraine. She said they told her: “We are going to defend our motherland. Our grandfathers died and we will too for a peaceful sky above our heads.”

In Putin’s heartland, Russian mothers mourn their sons killed in Ukraine | ITV News
Incredibly sad to read -- these people have truly been brainwashed into believing the lies of Putin and his men, and are sending their sons straight into a terrible, unprovoked, and devastating war based on those lies.

 

[Feanor]

I'm seeing unsubstantiated reports of heavy fighting in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk direction out of the Izyum Salient. There's also reports that Ukrainian forces have left Rubezhnoe, and may be preparing to evacuate Severodonetsk-Lisichansk area. If true, the battles above may be Ukrainian reserves buying time for those units to escape the impending encirclement. No further evidence so far of a Ukrainian counter-attack at the base of the Izyum Salient, though we did see two Ukrainian ATGM teams go down, one POWs, one KIAs, and the tank battle with the T-80UDs. That may be the result of that counter-offensive. It's really unclear at this time. It's also possible the aftermath of that fight has come to us yet.

 

[Feanor]

11. @STURM explained in a broad brush the terrain in Donbass; I agree with his description. But the JFO is really a series of prepared fighting positions that is infantry heavy. In simplistic terms, it’s a tank trap on a giant scale.

12. No matter how much softening up Russia will do with their superior artillery in so called ‘tank country’ of Donbass and the JFO, Russian T-72s, T-90s and IFVs are going to have to roll into contact with slightly shell shocked, but dug-in infantry fighting positions armed with Stugnas, NLAWs, Javelins, and the rest. If Ukrainian platoons are disciplined on rest cycles, they will fight. The proper use of Russian indirect fire coupled with even rudimentary coordination between tanks and infantry can cause static Ukrainian positions to become impossible to hold — they must move. See UK MOD’s view.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516515968700534786

I think this is already happening. Note the heavy fighting at Severodonetsk, Rubezhnoe, and Mar'inka. Russia's real solution is to encircle the old front line from the north and the west, and cut them off from reinforcements and resupplies. It remains to be seen whether they can pull this off. Also yes. Shiny new T-90s. Definitely not T-72As with haphazrdly installed K-1 tiles.

13. Given the scale of Russian artillery prep, I suspect part of this is psychological — it will feel awful for Ukrainian troops (especially, for Company commanders and below) on the line of contact, being fired upon for 14 hours a day but the kill rate is not going to be high, at the JFO. The Ukrainian brigades dug-in at the JFO are used to being hit by artillery for the last 8 years — but probably not at this level of intensity. Russian forces have increased offensive activity in Severodonetsk Salient. These attacks are the start of the anticipated general Donbas offensive.

There were some interesting reports from the LNR area of highly effective rebel mortar tactics with UAV fire correction when assaulting the 29th Checkpoint, but they're unsubstantiated, and coming from someone serving with the rebels so it's questionable. The territorial gains they have made, however, are not.

16. Agreed. If you recall, Ukraine was able and willing to mount a 200 km brigade level raid, east along the southern border of the Donbass in the past (and I have cited it in a prior post at #2,936) but that may no longer work given the scale of Russian troop movement.

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(a) Fighting in Ukraine involves a complex ecosystem of connected capabilities. The Russians need to protect their own BTGs and destroy Ukrainian troops. Remove any of those Russian capabilities and the whole thing collapses.​

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(b) The fact that Ukraine has more fighters now than 2 weeks ago, bad news for Russia. The fact that Russia's flagship Black Sea missile cruiser, the Moskva, was sunk is also bad news for the aggressor.​

I suspect the real issue with those kinds of operations is Russian air superiority. We have footage of Ukrainian units that appeared to be retreating from around Mariupol' destroyed either on the march or in small towns along the routes to Zaporozhye area. We haven't seen any large offensive movements of this kind by Ukraine at all. At most we see platoon-btln level operations. Ukrainian forces have been successful in bogging down the Russian offensive and bleeding it in urban areas, but we haven't seen the type of sweeping counter-offensives or long range raids that you're suggesting.

I'm also curious which raid exactly you're referring to. I'm aware of the Izvarino pocket, which was a deep movement along the Ukraine-Russian border. But it ended in disaster. Ukrainian forces ended up cut off by a rebel movement on Saur-Mogila, and then shredded by Russian artillery fire. Ukrainian forces in that "raid" didn't bother to dig in, disperse, or even concel their vehicles, leading to huge losses. Several hundred of their service members ended up crossing the border into Russia and surrendering there. Many died. Some eventually escaped after Ukrainian troops were able to retake Saur Mogila. This was the end of Ukraine's plan to cut the rebels off from the Russian border, and shifted the focus of that fight to cutting Donetsk off from Lugansk through two strategic offensives, one in the south through Ilovaysk, the other in the north through Debal'tsevo. I think those city names are famous enough that I don't need to tell you what the outcome was.

I'm aware of a different Ukrainian operation that likely started off as an attempt to encircle Lugansk, but ended up as a raid, which one can mostly call successful. But that one didnt go anywhere near the southern border, it went around Lugansk, and along the eastern border between Russian and Lugansk Region, Ukraine.

The point I'm getting at is that even against a significantly weaker opponent, the Ukrainian military did not do very well in those kinds of operations. Of course Russian direct involvement was key in all those battles, but a near-peer size of rebel proxies with a small Russian element, is not the same as open warfare against Russia itself.

 

[Señor Pomidor]

I found this video in which the author analyze the front line with great detail, town by town. I am not sure of the accuracy but I found it interesting, maybe the experts in our forum could comment on it.

Ukraine: military situation update with maps, April 17-20, 2022 - YouTube

 

[Feanor]

I found this video in which the author analyze the front line with great detail, town by town. I am not sure of the accuracy but I found it interesting, maybe the experts in our forum could comment on it.

Ukraine: military situation update with maps, April 17-20, 2022 - YouTube

Man, is that a good channel. Thank you for sharing. You're right, the accuracy, especially of the details on individual units, is debatable. But one thing I can do is try to line it up with sightings of Russian forces that I publish here and see if it makes sense equipment and vehicle wise.

 

[kato]

The German government, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (from the same party - SPD - as Steinmeier) is not seen by Kyiv and others as having done enough to support Ukraine.

Ukraine has now finally publicly admitted that German donations were significantly more substantial than previously alleged and has provided a list that besides the previously publicly known stuff also includes 16 million rounds of small arms ammunition, 100,000 hand grenades and 7,300 anti-tank mines and other explosive charges, which amounts to roughly 25% of all ammunition donated to Ukraine so far globally with only the US individually donating more.

 

[vonnoobie]

Ukraine has now finally publicly admitted that German donations were significantly more substantial than previously alleged and has provided a list that besides the previously publicly known stuff also includes 16 million rounds of small arms ammunition, 100,000 hand grenades and 7,300 anti-tank mines and other explosive charges, which amounts to roughly 25% of all ammunition donated to Ukraine so far globally with only the US individually donating more.

Just a quick heads up post a link to your statement. Don't want the admins getting grouchy.

That aside until seeing the source I will go on assumption it's accurate in which case good on Germany.

 

[OPSSG]

Clarifications on aid contributions

1. U.S. sent another 4 planeloads of military aid to the region for delivery to Ukraine, including howitzers: senior U.S. defense official

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516815661045100544

2. This is only possible when Ukraine sent existing artillery officers to the training. The seed needs to be planted to grow the tree — this is an important 1st step.

​

(a) 4 more C-17 flights set in the next 24 hours with howitzers from President Biden's US$800 million military aid package to Ukraine. Hopefully, the 155mm ammo being sent includes the M1156 PGK, which increases accuracy and reduces the number of projectiles required to neutralise the target.​

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(b) Familiarity with NATO standards and recording of the Modular Charge System (MCS) used will enable the smoother flow of overseas aid. When a round is fired from a 155mm artillery system such as the 155mm/39 cal M777 used by the US Army and Marine Corps and will be provided to Ukraine by Canada. The M777 has a maximum range of 39.3km using a Zone 5 MCS. MCS is way superior to a bag system.​

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(c) Even if Ukraine is provided with moderate numbers of 155mm/52 cal guns & good counter battery radars, then Russian artillery will have big problems — as these outranges Russian 2S19s by a fair margin; 44km vs. 25km. France will deliver the CAESAR 155mm/52 cal wheeled self-propelled howitzers (with training for 40 Ukrainian gunners) and the Dutch will deliver 155mm/52 cal PzH 2000s self-propelled howitzers (with training and ammo provided by Germany), to Ukraine. Both systems are longer ranged and more survivable than the M777s.​

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(d) Capacity to absorb is always a concern — Ukraine needs all the help it can get to ensure it can go toe-to-toe with Russian artillery, via counter battery work.​

…besides the previously publicly known stuff also includes 16 million rounds of small arms ammunition, 100,000 hand grenades and 7,300 anti-tank mines and other explosive charges, which amounts to roughly 25% of all ammunition donated to Ukraine so far globally with only the US individually donating more.

3. Thanks for that clarification on German contributions — the information being pushed on Twitter about German contributions is very unbalanced and it’s creating a problem.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516545901451485195

4. Is the bashing Scholz driven in social media, like Twitter or Facebook, driven by domestic politics? Or is there substance to critique his approach?

 

[kato]

Just a quick heads up post a link to your statement. Don't want the admins getting grouchy.

100.000 Handgranaten und mehr für die Ukraine

Die Ukraine hat seit Kriegsbeginn von Deutschland gut 2500 Luftabwehrraketen, 900 Panzerfäuste mit 3000 Schuss Munition, 100 Maschinengewehre und 15 Bunkerfäuste mit 50 Raketen erhalten. Hinzu kommen 100.000 Handgranaten, 2000 Minen, rund 5300 Sprengladungen sowie ... mehr lesen

www.faz.net

Have fun. Supposedly press agency DPA got the list from a source in the Ukrainian government.

The overall list is 2500 MANPADS, 900 anti-tank rocket launchers with 3000 rounds of ammunition, 15 anti-structure rocket launchers with 50 rounds of ammunition, 100 machine guns, 16 million rounds of small arms ammunition, 100,000 hand grenades, 2000 anti-tank mines, 5,300 explosive charges.

Occasionally additionally added to news articles are 1000 spare parts kits for machine guns, 100,000 detonation cords and 250,000 "igniters" (fairly sure they mean detonators), although at least in the publicly available DPA release those are not mentioned - possibly that's in the internal data DPA will give subscribers.

From the German side the information remains fully classified (since about the beginning of this month), and the DPA list can generally be seen as fairly incomplete as it restricts itself to only weapons, ammunition and explosives. It is also likely outdated, as the last similar DPA leak published on March 29th showed about half of the above items had already been delivered by March 7th.

Is the bashing Scholz driven in social media, like Twitter or Facebook, driven by domestic politics? Or is there substance to critique his approach?

It's part of a media and lobbying campaign by Ukraine primarily agitated by their ambassador to Germany Andrij Melnyk that - as multipliers - seems to primarily target certain influential figures in the government parties that were benched to second-liners when the government was formed - in particular Anton Hofreiter (Greens) and Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP). Both to some extent also see a chance here to position their parties favourably within the government compared to Scholz's SPD.

There is the domestic politics angle too, primarily for the opposition CDU, but that can be seen as separate and - besides exploiting the above fracas - is primarily driven by preemptive positioning with regard to Scholz's announcement of seeking a constitutional change (for which he needs CDU support) for his 100 billion package for the Bundeswehr.

 

[GermanHerman]

Apparently it was decided that Azovstal should not be stormed but rather blockaded.

Also Russia apparently is planning to increase the production of kalibr rockets, or so is claimed.

The UEC-Saturn plant in the Russian city of Rybinsk, Yaroslavl Region, is recruiting up to 500 new employees due to "increase in production volumes." It is at this plant that engines for Caliber missiles are produced.

Of cause this could also be pure propaganda, russia seems quite eager to catch up on that front spreading pictures of an eldery lady. Murals like this have popped up in several places. I don't know If the original video this is based on was already staged or not, but it now clearly starting to catch traction.

We also still get flooded with pictures of POW's and combat losses of Ukraine, there is an telegram channel solely dedicated to releasing this footage (warning: pictures of corpses).

Telegram link removed because is an attempt by Russian groups to identify various Ukrainian individuals for illegal purposes. Don't post such material again.
Ngatimozart.

 

[QEDdeq]

Of cause this could also be pure propaganda, russia seems quite eager to catch up on that front spreading pictures of an eldery lady. Murals like this have popped up in several places. I don't know If the original video this is based on was already staged or not, but it now clearly starting to catch traction.

Indeed we can notice an increased use of soviet symbolism during the latest couple of weeks. Not only the story of the old lady and her flag but also putting the soviet victory flag on top of various administrative buildings. They even started producing larger versions of the flag to enhance visibility from distance. I think this is a coordinated effort to gain sympathy of the older population in Ukraine since many old people tend to be nostalgic for past soviet times. It is also a way of reinforcing support among the older population at home in Russia too (considering the oldies are the main and most disciplined voting segment of the population).

 

[Twain]

Netherlands is apparently sending PzH 2000's to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516745267063795712

Add in the 18 M777's (?0 the US is sending and it looks like the pipeline for heavier weapons is slowly opening. The longer this lasts the more heavy and high tech weapons will be sent to Ukraine. There are rumors are that the next batch of US aid will include more artillery, just not confirmed at this time. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see modern MBT's on the transfer list in the next 2-3 weeks and Mig 29's not long after that.

I'm not saying it will definitely happen just that the progression into these types of weapons wouldn't surprise me in the least. I think Ukraine keeps meeting western expectations to get more military equipment and now the test is to see if they can use this type of aid effectively. The expectations in general being:

1 initially, show the ability to hold against russian forces, they proved that at Kyiv
2 The ability to hold against a larger force that is at least somewhat more effective (donbass) which is still open
3 Use heavier and sometimes higher tech weapons effectively

 

[Ranger25]

Additional US aid heading to UKR


includes an additional 72 155mm guns and trucks to support them, more ATGMs, 140,000 155 rounds and more drones. Drones are a new loitering style drone called the Phoenix Ghost? Little information available other than its a fast tracked program to meet operational needs in Ukraine

Little known about the new drone called the phoenix Ghost

American 'Ghost' drones for Ukraine designed for attack: Pentagon

Newly disclosed "Ghost" drones that are part of America's latest arms package for Ukraine were developed by the U.S. Air Force for attacking targets and are destroyed after a single use, the Pentagon said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Aid package

Biden unveils $800 million in new Ukraine military aid, to ask Congress for more

U.S. President Joe Biden pledged $800 million in more weaponry for Ukraine on Thursday and said he would ask Congress for more money to help bolster support for the Ukrainian military as it faces a fresh onslaught by Russia on its eastern flank.

www.reuters.com

 

[OPSSG]

Post 1 of 4: Phoenix Ghost Tactical UAVs & other details

Little known about the new drone called the Phoenix Ghost

A few points to discuss on the 121 Phoenix Ghost, which are manufactured by AEVEX Aerospace and to be delivered to Ukraine:

1. It is a “one way drone” that is “clearly designed to give a punch” to a number of different types of targets said the official; this new loitering munition system would require minimal training for Ukrainian operators who are already familiar with Switchblade or other unmanned aircraft.

2. Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said that the Phoenix Ghost was “developed before” Russia’s 24 Feb 2022 invasion of Ukraine. “It was developed for a set of requirements that very closely match what the Ukrainians need right now in Donbas,” he said.

3. While it is a low cost one-way loitering munition, I believe this is more capable than the Switchblade 600 (which is intended to attack a single target 40 km (25 miles) away or has a flight time of 40 minutes.

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(a) The Phoenix Ghost will provide geospatial intelligence. This may include automated object detection routines and a video target tracker. This means that this loitering munition is a very modern, day-night, artillery spotter, cum shooter.​

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(b) I speculate that prior to hitting the Phoenix Ghost’s selected priority target, the loitering munition will also help provide information to enable the operator to develop target coordinates for Ukrainian artillery on other targets — so instead of sending 7 Switchblades (to target 6 Russian howitzers & the battery command post), just send 1 Phoenix Ghost UAV, fire artillery to kill the Russian battery and the UAV does a ‘re-attack’, for any Russian survivors.​

 

[CumbrianRover]

Is the Ukraine about to face the same issues as Russia - coordination?

Not ad nauseum, but, British commentators stress that the British practice combined arms all the time; with the gift of Hvy Arty SPGs, Ukraine will begin receiving considerable firepower, however, it will need AD and logistics capability that enable fire and move, protecting against Russian air and interdiction of supply lines will be challenging.

Can they move onto the offensive which would require a whole new level of coordination with infantry and tanks and even heavier draw on logistics?

 

[OPSSG]

Post 2 of 4: Phoenix Ghost Tactical UAVs & other details

4. The delivery of American loitering munitions ensure that no Russian command post or artillery battery is safe inside Ukraine. The Ukrainians have found a way to take a massive inferiority in fighter numbers and turn that around by fighting smarter. There are lessons to be learnt from them.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517243028905340928

5. Mystery of the loitering munition solved. See quote:

​

“The Phoenix Ghost ‘is a different type of aircraft, it’s a one-way aircraft that is effective against medium armored ground targets,’ said retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and member of the Aevex board.​

The drone can take off vertically, fly for six-plus hours searching for or tracking a target, and operate at night using its infrared sensors, Deptula said. Phoenix Ghost has a longer loitering capability than the Switchblade, which can fly for less than an hour, he said.”​

 

[OPSSG]

Post 3 of 4: Phoenix Ghost Tactical UAVs & other details


6. Spain’s ESPS Ysabel (A06) to deliver 30 trucks / heavy transport vehicles, 10 light vehicles, ammunition, and other weapons destined for Ukraine — Ukraine will need trucks and heavy transport vehicles to move the tons of ammo being delivered through Poland, as part of the logistics effort in this war. This Spanish ship is likely to dock in Poland to unload its cargo of weapons. This is part of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s promise to send “the Ukrainian resistance offensive military hardware”.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516404287324278794

7. American/NATO members are flooding the zone with loitering munitions, artillery and logistics trucks to ensure that the Russian advance on the JFO fail.