The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Larso66

Member
It seems to me that this new offensive from relatively secure positions in the east, will be a more traditional, broad front advance. If so there will be fewer ambush opportunities of Russian forces. Indeed, I would think that the Ukrainian forces will be obliged to adopt a more traditional defence, offering battle where the Russians advance. This should place them at greater risk of artillery strikes and even, tactical nukes where forces of sufficient size are deployed to warrant it. I feel this is quite likely as Putin will not under any circumstances tolerate a second reverse.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It seems to me that this new offensive from relatively secure positions in the east, will be a more traditional, broad front advance. If so there will be fewer ambush opportunities of Russian forces. Indeed, I would think that the Ukrainian forces will be obliged to adopt a more traditional defence, offering battle where the Russians advance. This should place them at greater risk of artillery strikes and even, tactical nukes where forces of sufficient size are deployed to warrant it. I feel this is quite likely as Putin will not under any circumstances tolerate a second reverse.
We'll see if the Stavka and field commanders have learned the lessons from their earlier mistakes. A second reverse??? Putin has had more than two with the Slava cruiser Mockba being promoted to submarine just being the latest.

I would be very careful about casually bringing the use of nukes into the conversation. My Singaporean colleague has already placed one long term poster on a month long holiday for making such a suggestion. Whilst it is a possibility, it is not a reasonable probability at the moment as you imply.

WRT to possibilities, everything is possible but not everything is probable. For example it's possible to travel faster than the speed of light, but Einstein's Theory of Relativity tells us that it is improbable. Relativity says that the closer we get to the speed of light the more massive we become (as in mass) and hence the more energy we require to accelerate us so that by the time we get to light speed, there is not enough energy in the universe to accelerate us to the speed of light and past it.
Is Einstein right or wrong? There are massless particles that may have velocities greater than the speed of light and that's subject to research at the moment. But Relativity is only two theories (The Special Theory of Relativity and The General Theory of Relativity) and they aren't Laws so are subject to testing and being disproved. No has managed to do it yet, but if / when one or both are disproved, whoever does it will receive an instant Nobel prize in Physics. I thought that Stephen Hawkings might have been the one, because IMHO he was the better physicist and I think the more intelligent.
 

denix56

Active Member
We'll see if the Stavka and field commanders have learned the lessons from their earlier mistakes. A second reverse??? Putin has had more than two with the Slava cruiser Mockba being promoted to submarine just being the latest.

I would be very careful about casually bringing the use of nukes into the conversation. My Singaporean colleague has already placed one long term poster on a month long holiday for making such a suggestion. Whilst it is a possibility, it is not a reasonable probability at the moment as you imply.

WRT to possibilities, everything is possible but not everything is probable. For example it's possible to travel faster than the speed of light, but Einstein's Theory of Relativity tells us that it is improbable. Relativity says that the closer we get to the speed of light the more massive we become (as in mass) and hence the more energy we require to accelerate us so that by the time we get to light speed, there is not enough energy in the universe to accelerate us to the speed of light and past it.
Is Einstein right or wrong? There are massless particles that may have velocities greater than the speed of light and that's subject to research at the moment. But Relativity is only two theories (The Special Theory of Relativity and The General Theory of Relativity) and they aren't Laws so are subject to testing and being disproved. No has managed to do it yet, but if / when one or both are disproved, whoever does it will receive an instant Nobel prize in Physics. I thought that Stephen Hawkings might have been the one, because IMHO he was the better physicist and I think the more intelligent.
I think we can postpone nukes for some time.
Lavrov said: "At this state we consider regular weapons option".


 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
No there isn't but I wasn't referring to operations in the Kiev area. I was referring to things being fuzzy at an overall level as to the extent of how the military was hampered by assumptions made on the part of the political leadership. We know that some units were only told they were going in 48 prior; that they were told that the locals would welcome them as liberators and that Ukrainian resistance would be brief and dispirited - that much we know. What we don't know and can only assume [hence my question] if such assumptions weren't made; would the military have gone in better prepared? Would they have gone in with better logistics and ordered units to operate as doctrine lays out?
Could the have made alternative choices? Perhaps. Did they have a lot of other choices? Not so much IMO.

While battle strategy and planning could have been left to the military with no political influence in how it is carried out it still can run into a multitude of issues from available resources to goals mandated by the government (ie: Advance on Kiev is all but certain an attempt but failure in change of government). There are also thing's that they would hace little to no effect in changing such as the force structure of the units involved from improving the lack of infantry available in BTG's to increasing its logistical capacity. The first requiring more manpower which would mean more conscripts in the BTG's (Hardly a solution) or reducing the number of BTG's to increase the man power available to perform an effective screening action, While the second would require once again more man power and more logistical elements which they simply lacked and would take years at best to rectify. With the inherant weaknesses within the Russian ground forces they where/are limited in what they might have been able to do differently besides not jumping airborn units in so soon, Or if Putin could be talked into it ignoring a ground attack on Kiev.

If the military is able to carry out ops as they would like rather than being handicapped by interference from a higher level and are provided with the resources and are able to produce better results; then from their perspective it will matter.
It all comes down to though are those resources actually available. Even if they have the stock piled munitions and fuel to carry this out they dont have the trucks to get it to the front as fast as they go through it so for all intents and purposes the Russian BTG's which make up the bulk of the force are a more modern version of WWI warfare making small gains at a time then having to stop to let supplies catch up, restock and advance again, All the while Ukrainian forces dig in again.

-----

One thing they may or may not have been able to change is the scale of use of the RuAF. For the size of it how many of the aircraft are physically available for use that arent under maintenance, upgrade or unavailable to be used because of commitments to a particular area. Could the actually field more aircraft or are they simply only fielding what we see today because of limitations of some kind that we aren't aware of?
 

KiwiRob

Well-Known Member
Thank you for the legal details regarding war crimes. I hope the investigative authorities are able to look into any alleged war crimes by either side on this conflict. I agree that it would be best for everyone for this war to end. Unfortunately I suspect my government would not agree with that sentiment.
The ICJ can't do anything to Russia, just like it can't do anything to The US, Israel, China, India and a number of other countries, the ICJ can investigate but that's it, unless the country is a signatory to the Rome Statue, if they are then they fall under the ICJ's jurisdiction and can be prosecuted.

Professor Philippe Sands QC, an expert on international law at University College London, says the ICC couldn't prosecute Russia's leaders for this because the country isn't a signatory to the court.

In theory, the UN Security Council could ask the ICC to investigate this offence. But again, Russia could veto this.

Another reason why the permanent Security Council members should have their veto powers revoked.
 

KiwiRob

Well-Known Member
Agreed I have my ICC's and ICJ's mixed up, but either way Russian isn't a member or one and as a veto holding member of the UN can veto the other. The ICJ can rule on the legality of this war, and it is somewhat of a border dispute.
 

StobieWan

Super Moderator
Staff member
Two images of the Moskva of the Russian Navy that sank; ultimately, the fire fighting efforts failed. The Russian Navy just became No. 1. The biggest loss of a ship during war, after WWII — the Argentina Navy hands over the title after 40 years (from 1982).
At least the argentine navy got in the ring with a country that had a functioning navy...
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
From Lester Grau's latest book we know that BTGs were seen by the Russians as being suitable for specific operational scenarios and weren't intended or seen as something which was permanent per see or was suitable for every conflict.
Nothing is more permanent then a temporary solution... Russian brigade structure was supposed to negate the BTG concept and instead allow for whole brigades to operate, with each btln in the brigade being its own BTG under the brigade command. However they don't want to do that because of concerns with using conscripts. The VDV doesn't have conscripts in 3 of its 4 divisions, and it decided not to go with the brigade structure because reasons.... but they're still fighting using BTGs.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Many in the Western online cheer squad are so sure the Ukrainians will prevail in the East because “this is the same Russian Army that was so inept at Kyiv.” But the terrain where the fights are occurring is totally different. No forests and urban areas to sneak up with Stingers, NLAWs and Javelins. I am pretty worried about Ukrainian Army plans to give battle in this terrain.
Can you explain what type of terrain we'll seeing in Donbass vs overall Ukraine that we've seen so far?

What weapon systems do you think might be most dominant there?
Prior to the war, the fighting was characterized by exchanges of artillery fire, but Ukraine presented quite substantial losses of AFVs, meaning it involved a lot of direct fire engagements as well.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Can you explain what type of terrain we'll seeing in Donbass vs overall Ukraine that we've seen so far?
In 2003 when many flights were routed because of the Iraqi invasion; a SIA flight I was on flew for about an hour over the Donbass area. I had a good view of the countryside and for anyone whose area of interest is German operations conducted in the Donbass during WW2: the aerial view would have been very interesting. Mostly flat terrain with a lot of hills and ravines; as well as several rivers.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Something deeply problematic just took place. In Zaporozhye region, the town of Rozovka (and a chunk of surrounding territory) apparently had a town meeting where they "decided to join the DNR". Allegedly this is just temporary. However it's important to note several things.

1) Civilians are fleeing the fight en masse and this town was recently on the front lines. It's quite likely much if not most of the population left. So the town meeting likely involved a minority of the population, and quite likely a disproportionate number of the elderly (who are often the last remaining residents).

2) A town meeting is not even a referendum.

3) The town is already under Russian/rebel control, so the question of duress comes to mind.

4) This allows for near arbitrary expansion of rebel declared territories by simply gathering a crowd of locals who are anything but actively hostile, and under implied threat, and promise of support/humanitarian aid (aid that could very well be real), have them join the DNR or LNR.

To me this is a huge alarm bell about the future of Kherson region and southern Zaporozhye region. I suspect this is a model for how Russia will administer many Ukrainian territories.

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 2 of 2: Inchoate reply on day 54/55 of the 2022 war

10. Unrelated to the above, I am really excited to see the German supplied RGW-90 HH Matadors in action. The Armed Forces of Ukraine bought 5,100 units with first batch of 2,650 units was received on 26 March 2022, and 2,450 remaining units were to be delivered in smaller batches by the end of May 2022.

Can you explain what type of terrain we'll seeing in Donbass vs overall Ukraine that we've seen so far?
11. @STURM explained in a broad brush the terrain in Donbass; I agree with his description. But the JFO is really a series of prepared fighting positions that is infantry heavy. In simplistic terms, it’s a tank trap on a giant scale.

What weapon systems do you think might be most dominant there?
12. No matter how much softening up Russia will do with their superior artillery in so called ‘tank country’ of Donbass and the JFO, Russian T-72s, T-90s and IFVs are going to have to roll into contact with slightly shell shocked, but dug-in infantry fighting positions armed with Stugnas, NLAWs, Javelins, and the rest. If Ukrainian platoons are disciplined on rest cycles, they will fight. The proper use of Russian indirect fire coupled with even rudimentary coordination between tanks and infantry can cause static Ukrainian positions to become impossible to hold — they must move. See UK MOD’s view.

13. Given the scale of Russian artillery prep, I suspect part of this is psychological — it will feel awful for Ukrainian troops (especially, for Company commanders and below) on the line of contact, being fired upon for 14 hours a day but the kill rate is not going to be high, at the JFO. The Ukrainian brigades dug-in at the JFO are used to being hit by artillery for the last 8 years — but probably not at this level of intensity. Russian forces have increased offensive activity in Severodonetsk Salient. These attacks are the start of the anticipated general Donbas offensive.

14. In theory, the Ukrainian Army wants to use tanks and IFVs, to conduct counter brigade level attacks in this terrain but they are over matched in the sense-strike area against the Russians — this creates pressure on the Ukrainian Army to adopt sub-optimal solutions (aka tactical solutions), to not being able to concentrate forces for a counter offensive. But that can change.
(a) The scale of logistics push into Ukraine is not to be underestimated. The US is sending 40,000 155mm rounds for 18 (either M198 or M777) howitzers. That’s 2,200 rounds per gun. In a few months, they will literally burn out the barrels before their constant resupply of 155mm ammo runs out. If Ukraine’s forces can hold up for 21 days, a lot of interesting capabilities will come online.​
(b) Compared to 14 days ago, Ukraine have available to them more fixed-wing fighter aircraft than they did — that's because other nations who have experience with Mig-29s have been able to help them get more aircraft up and running. Russia has yet to achieve air superiority in the Donbas, and troops can’t expect to have reliable close-air support once they meet stiff Ukrainian resistance. “This is really important,” the official asserted.​
(c) The Biden Administration is preparing to announce another massive aid package to Ukraine. The package is expected to be similar in size to the US$800 million one the administration announced last week. “Two officials said the package is expected to include more artillery and tens of thousands more artillery rounds.”​

15. It’s a fight to make interrupt the flow of Russian supply to the front at Donbas (see above video for terrain) and they also want to make sure Ukrainian battalions on the line of contact are not totally cut-off from reinforcement or resupply; while the Russian BTGs will be allocated respective sectors, to cut-off pockets from mutual support and even their local reserves. Operational art requires division and above commanders to address four key considerations when planning and executing a major operation:

(a) What military conditions must be produced to achieve the strategic ends?​
— Ukraine needs to grind the Russian attack on Donbass to a halt and to prevent resupply to select BTGs​

(b) What scheme of maneuve will produce that condition desired by Ukraine?​
— will see in 2 to 3 weeks, who can execute in the fiction of war in Donbass​

(c) What resources are being given to defenders of Donbass?​
— a lot of ATGMs but not much else of what they really need; what they need and are not getting includes more artillery support (deep fires) and effective counter battery work to force the Russians to displace frequently after each fire mission​
(d) What are the costs or risks in performing the sequence of actions (risk management)?​
— the risk is loss of Ukraine’s most elite troops at the JFO area. The Russian Army wants to give battle, if certain conditions are met​

Prior to the war, the fighting was characterized by exchanges of artillery fire, but Ukraine presented quite substantial losses of AFVs, meaning it involved a lot of direct fire engagements as well.
16. Agreed. If you recall, Ukraine was able and willing to mount a 200 km brigade level raid, east along the southern border of the Donbass in the past (and I have cited it in a prior post at #2,936) but that may no longer work given the scale of Russian troop movement.
(a) Fighting in Ukraine involves a complex ecosystem of connected capabilities. The Russians need to protect their own BTGs and destroy Ukrainian troops. Remove any of those Russian capabilities and the whole thing collapses.​
(b) The fact that Ukraine has more fighters now than 2 weeks ago, bad news for Russia. The fact that Russia's flagship Black Sea missile cruiser, the Moskva, was sunk is also bad news for the aggressor.​
 
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T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Russian Nigh time strikes (Possibly from Last Night's Offensive)

IR video of MLRS landing. This was quite a heavy salvo. You can see the flying hot metal shrapnel. Modern war is horrifying, the place there hitting looks to be a town, the poor civillians..

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/u70t1f
This video is very grainy, but if you look closely, you can see a UA vehicle with a person walking behind it, the first strike appears to be a direct hit. Orlon strike maybe?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/u78bn3
Heavy explosion after the strike. EIther a powerful munition was launched, or a smaller munition and the target had singificant explosive material.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/u78boy
Mauriopol Chechens and Friends

This frist video is very heavily NSFW multiple dead Ukrainian bodies. This maybe a slightly older video, but the chechen fighter is taking quite the risk to loot the body, while firefighting is going on

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/u7dfis
Chechen soldier getting shot. Of all the chechen videos released so far, I have seen them taking hits live on video in Mauriopol only like 4-5 times( when videos are released from a chechen perspective). They don't like sharing their losses. The guy ran into the open to collect a rifle, before his squad started providing enough suppressive fire. I expect @OPSSG is going to have a quite a few things to say about their tactics and fire discipline...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/u7gvho


There was a video from mauriopol about a DPR/LNR cconscript getting bullied by his older squad, the poor kid did not know how to fire his machine gun properly, it got deleted, but it was quite sad. You know that poor bastard had no intention of fighting in a war, and eas picked up and sent into a meat grinder.

UA strikes

This an amazing video, the UA artillery accurately hit a house with DPR troopers and you can see the drone footage of them taking POWs afterwards. In the last few seconds, you can see a cornered DPR soldier wisely surrendering


At least 3 UA soldiers in a different location take out a solitary Russian trooper. I have no idea why that guy was out there all alone.


DPR strikes in Donbass

Mortar fire on moving UA forces, the second strike is particularly accurate. Mortars have never been as accurate as they are now thanks to drones.



Azovstal


If there is any one here who hasnt seen the sheer size and scale of Azovstal, here you go. The factory is full of soviet built bunkers, as long as dedicated defenders remain, I have no idea how Russians can ever 100% take control of this place.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The factory is full of soviet built bunkers, as long as dedicated defenders remain, I have no idea how Russians can ever 100% take control of this place.
I guess it will be back just like US Marines clearing out Japanese bunkers. One by one using explosive and flame throwers.

Pro Russian forums talk on them using similar kind of technique, and it will not be pretty.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Idiot question but why would a steel plant have a series of bunkers? What was the Soviet thinking that lead to it? I've seen the videos of the interviews with civies within those bunkers and they look to be proper shelters.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kiev Area/The North.

More footage from the Kiev armored repair facility recently hit.


Destroyed, allegedly Ukrainian, S-300V TELAR near Chernigov.


Golovchino village, Belgorod region, Russia, has been shelled. 1 wounded civilian.


Ukrainian Uragan strike in Belgorod region Russia, allegedly using cluster munitions.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian Iskanders near Kharkov.


Russian strikes in Kharkov region. Again, this might be the Izyum salient.


Ukrainian ATGM team was taken POW in Kharkov region. I suspect this was also in the Izyum salient, but it's hard to be sure.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

More Russian security forces operations, this time in Kirillovka, Zaporozhye region.


Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian MLRS firing on Nikolaev.


Impacts in Nikolaev.


Battle damage in Nikolaev.


Ukrainian Mi-24P near Nikolaev.


Russian security forces found a weapons cache at the Pallada factory in Kherson.


The Izyum Salient.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian truck.


Russian recon team in the Izyum salient, they allegedly uncovered an enemy armored element, destroyed one tank, and directed fires to take out 3 more. Only two destroyed tanks are visible in the video, both appear to be T-72Bs.


More footage from the recent fight where Russian troops apparently encountered rare Ukrainian T-80Us. These photos show the paint job better and it doesn't look like the Russian one. It also doesn't have any Z or V markings. Note, the tank from the roof of which one of the photos was taken appears to be a T-80BV. This means that the location might be wrong, as the last place we saw these was near Severodonetsk. It's also possible more then one Russian BTG is supported by T-80BVs.


A Ukrainian mobile ATGM team was taken out near Izyum. This may be more evidence of a Ukrainian attempt at counter-attacks.


More footage of fragments of the Ukrainian Su-24M that went down near Izyum.


LDNR Front.

Popasnaya city administration office is in rebel hands.


LNR artillery firing.


DNR artillery firing near Donestk. UAV with thermals observing.


Captured Ukrainian MT-LBu and Triton armored car now being used by the rebels.


Mariupol'.

Russian strikes in Mariupol'.


Russian BMP-3 firing on Azovstal'.


DNR Interior Troops SpN inside Azovstal'.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, Mariupol'.


Russian sources allege that a Ukrainian sailor was shot in the back by other Ukrainian fighters, in the port of Mariupol', while trying to surrender, carrying a Russian surrender leaflet.


Battle damage, administrative buildings, port of Mariupol'.


Elite rebel btln Somalia is leaving Mariupol', locals appear friendly.


Rebel city services have begun clearing the streets in Mariupol'.


Russian military bakery in Novoazovsk. They are likely supporting operations in Mariupol'.


The West.

Russian Kalibrs hitting L'vov region.


A rail station in L'vov burns.


Misc.

Russian strikes, location and context unclear.


Russian BMP-2 firing an ATGM at a Ukrainian T-64BV that is then allegedly knocked out. I suspect this is staged. The tank was probably abandoned.


Russian VDV sniper in Ukraine, with equipment. Location and context unclear.


Russian Iskanders operating in Ukraine.


Russian helos an Su-34s over Ukraine, location and context unclear.


Assorted footage from the Russian-rebel side.


As part of unfolding domestic crackdowns, Russian FSB arrests the administrator of a pro-Ukrainian telegram channel.


More Russian volunteers heading to Ukraine, out of Chechnya, but this time the volunteers are from other parts of Russia too. Despite the tactical vests and uniforms, note the lack of body armor. The LBVs don't look very good either.


NATO/EU.

Czech plants will allegedly repair Ukrainian military equipment.


There are reports Ukraine is receiving MiG-29s from Slovakia.

 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Idiot question but why would a steel plant have a series of bunkers? What was the Soviet thinking that lead to it? I've seen the videos of the interviews with civies within those bunkers and they look to be proper shelters.
If I recall they made nucelar bunkers so that their 40,000 worers in those factories would be safe during a nuclear war.

"Although he was not given access to Azovstal’s shelters during his 2016 visit, Macha says that, when the factory was restored in the 1940s after the harsh lessons of World War II, Soviet planners “built the bomb shelters first, then rebuilt the steel mill above them, so it's well protected, but perhaps not enough.”
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Something deeply problematic just took place. In Zaporozhye region, the town of Rozovka (and a chunk of surrounding territory) apparently had a town meeting where they "decided to join the DNR". Allegedly this is just temporary. However it's important to note several things.

1) Civilians are fleeing the fight en masse and this town was recently on the front lines. It's quite likely much if not most of the population left. So the town meeting likely involved a minority of the population, and quite likely a disproportionate number of the elderly (who are often the last remaining residents).

2) A town meeting is not even a referendum.

3) The town is already under Russian/rebel control, so the question of duress comes to mind.

4) This allows for near arbitrary expansion of rebel declared territories by simply gathering a crowd of locals who are anything but actively hostile, and under implied threat, and promise of support/humanitarian aid (aid that could very well be real), have them join the DNR or LNR.

To me this is a huge alarm bell about the future of Kherson region and southern Zaporozhye region. I suspect this is a model for how Russia will administer many Ukrainian territories.

Ok it's every bit as sketchy as I thought. They literally publicly vote on it in a large room. I don't know how many people are in the room but the town has a population of ~3000 and the "area" (county?) the town is the capital of has ~4500 residents. I doubt there's even 500 in that room voting.

 
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