The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

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An interesting article which first appeared in 2019.


''The cornerstone of the British military's entire fires capability runs to only two regiments of 24 aging AS90 155-mm, 39-calibre, self-propelled howitzers. Its 16 Air Assault Brigade and 3 Commando Brigade can each field just two batteries of six 105-mm light guns. And the UK’s Multiple Launch Rocket System is issued with a GPS-guided rocket with a unitary warhead, which is inaccurate in the face of extensive Russian GPS jamming, is unable to course-correct and so cannot reliably engage dynamic targets, and has 85 km range, as compared with 120 km for Russian systems.''

''By contrast a Russian motor-rifle brigade alone fields an organic fires compliment of 81 artillery pieces, ranging from 152-mm and 203-mm self-propelled howitzers to 300-mm, multiple-launch rocket systems, the RUSI study said.''


Like various other things Russian artillery failed to perform as expected; although I have to place the caveat that this is the impression I've gained.
Russian arty is/was great in laying down large volumes of indiscriminate fire on static targets but I have no idea how they well they managed to provide effective fire in support of maneuver units and the actual numbers of Ukrainian arty which was neutralised by Russian arty.
The article is wrong. Russian Motor-Rifle Brigades organically only field 122-152mm Howitzers (mostly 152mm) and 122mm MLRS. An artillery bde will also have 220mm MLRS. 203mm howitzers don't even get fielded by regular artillery bdes. They are fielded by (last time I checked) literally two independent heavy artillery btlns. Same of the 240mm mortars. 300mm MLRS are fielded in separate rocket brigades. And an MRBde doesn't field 81 artillery pieces unless you count mortars and SP ATGM as "artillery". It has 3 artillery btlns of 18 pieces each.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

The North.

Russia strike lands in Chernigov.


Belarus is declaring a call up of reservists allegedly in response to Ukrainian forces massed on the southern Belarussian border. This is a very small move, likely a test, only 430 are being called up.


Nikolaev-Kherson-Odessa.

More battle damage footage of the destruction at the Riviera shopping center, Odessa.


More battle damage from Russian strikes, Odessa.


It appears the rail bridge at Zatoka was also hit.


Another weapons cache was found in Kherson area.


Victory Day celebrations in Novaya Kahovka, a civilian car and van column flying various Russia, Soviet and other emblems. I count 42 cars.


Flyers advocating burning Russians were put up all over Kherson. I suspect they're talking about military units, it's hard to make out the details on the poster.


Russian EOD continues to clear landmines from the border between Kherson region and Crimea.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Victory Day celebrations in Melitopol'.


Victory Day celebrations, Energodar. Given the population of the town (~50 000) these are relatively the largest in my opinion (out of all the occupied areas of Ukraine).


New license plates planned for issuance in Melitopol'. It carries the pre-revolutionary crest of the city. The letter UA are replaced by TVR (like meaning Tavrida).


Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strike in Ochkino, Sumy region.


Smerch strike landing, Kharkov.


Russian BM-21 and 2S19 firing, Kharkov region.


A destroyed GMZ-3 minelayer, Kharkov region, allegedly Ukrainian.


A destroyed MT-LB, Kozak-2, and BTR-4, Tsirkuny, outskirts of Kharkov.


Ukrainian UAV went down near Kharkov.


Russian Orlan-10 operating near Kharkov.


The Izyum Salient.

Russian CASEVAC, Izyum Salient.


Old footage (from late April) of Russian SpN units inside Ukrainian trenches at Kremennaya. We've seen part 1 of this video.


LDNR Front.

Russian strike hit the police headquarters in Severdonetsk.


Russian TOS-1 strike, Donbass. The target is an alleged Ukrainian HQ.


Russian strike, Donbass. Location and context unclear.


Rebel artillery strike on a building being used as a Ukrainian strongpoint or staging area.


LNR Artillery firing towards Svetlodarsk.


DNR artillery firing Giatsint-B and D-20 howitzers.


Ukrainian KrAZ carrying troops hit by a rebel ATGM fired by an infiltrator SpN team.


Russian SpN team allegedly in action near Severodonetsk.


The assault on Severodonetsk from the north has allegedly begun.


May 9th, rebel forces have taken Nizhnee village. You can see considerable battle damage.


Rebel forces have apparently taken Ukrainian positions near Troitskoe, capturing weapons. This opens the road on New York (former Novgorodskoe village).


We have reports that the assault of New York (former Novgorodskoe village) has begun.


Battle damage in Popasnaya, like Izyum before it, the town is basically in ruins.


MLRS rockets land in Donestk.


DP-27 and NLAW captured by Somalia btln, DNR area.


Allegedly, near Popasanaya rebel forces demonstrate a small truck loaded with weapons and munitions, captured from Ukrainian forces.


Rebel fighters, Avdeevka.


Ukrainian Osa and Igla SAMs near Slavyansk.


Ukrainian M-777s allegedly at the front line, Donbass.


Mariupol'.

Bombardment of Azovstal' continues.


Rebel forces continue the slow push into Azovstal'.


Russian Marines still near Azovstal'.


Ukrainian fighter inside Azovstal'. Warning graphic footage.


Some electricity is back in Mariupol'.

 

Attachments

Feanor

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Staff member
Russia.

Solokhi, Belgorod region, Russia, got hit by shelling. Allegedly 1 killed 6 wounded.


Victory Day celebrations took place all across Russia. One thing to note is that many of the parade formations had junior officers leading them. In Novosibirsk, the parade formations from the 35th Motor-Rifles was led by a lieutenant, commander of the engineers platoon. The 74th MRBde was led by a captain, commander of the EW company. Volgograd, 33rd MRRgt was led by a major, a btln hq commander.


Another batch of Russian volunteer fighters leaving Grozny for Ukraine.


Misc.

Ukrainian fighters in a residential house getting hit, first artillery then autocannon fire.


Ukrainian Bars-8MMK SP mortar, destroyed.


BTR-80 destroyed allegedly by a direct 152mm impact, claimed Ukrainian. Location unclear.


Ukrainian Tu-143 Reys shot down, when approaching the Russian border.


Russian sniper from the 22nd SpN Bde, operating in Ukraine. Allegedly in a counter-sniper capacity.


Russian vintage S-300V operations, Ukraine. Note the MANPADS teams filling the companion SHORAD role.


Russian repair unit operating, Ukraine.


Ukrainian M-777 allegedly near the front line.


Russian Tigr-M armored car captured by Ukrainian forces and repainted.


It appears the first BWP-1 has been sighted in Ukraine. The BWP-1 is the Polish designation for their localized BMP-1.


Multiple videos have come out of Ukrainian service members complaining about issues, from poor leadership, to poor logistics. The third video down we've already seen before.


Russian volunteer fighters, Ukraine. Note these appear to be irregulars, a regular stream of which has been heading into the battlezone.


Rare Russian MT-LB variant with a 30mm autocannon.


Ukrainian military testing a S-60 mounted in the back of a truck, Syria-style.


Ukrainian troops training for combat against tanks.


Captured Ukrainian weapons, location and context unclear.


A map of Russian cellphones active in Ukraine.


Ukrainian advisor to the Minister of the Interior says Ukraine intends to shell Belgorod.


Russia has modified an Orlan-10 for strike missions with two containers carrying two grenades each. This appears to be a new standardized variant, not a local adaptation. I've attached some better photos of the containers and munitions. They however attached to the post above...


NATO/EU.

Ukrainian artillerymen training on M-777s in Germany.


Ukraine has received antiquated 40mm Bofors AAA.


Czech RM-70 Grad clones arrive in Ukraine.


Polish T-72Ms in Ukraine, on training exercises near Krivoy Rog.


Ukrainian troops training on the YPR-765 APC.


A newly formed Ukrainian unit wearing MK-6 and MK-7 helmets, supplied by the UK. Note the lack of body armor and the age of the soldiers.

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 2 of 2: Weapon locating radars (WLRs), UAVs and its impact on the OODA loop

5. According to Ukrainian sources, the Ukrainian forces claimed to have shot down more than 9 Orlan-10 Russian UAVs in the last 24 hours. This is a true drone war, where destroying enemy drones is as important as killing soldiers to managing enemy OODA loop. h/t to Inform Napalm.
8C013E38-CE04-4584-9C2B-C9E1EEB9881E.jpeg

6. Last mile delivery, large quad copter UAVs for Ukraine. These things are big as we can see from the picture. Picture from Malloy Aero.
F2EEFB37-BA6E-4F88-A642-768E8701550B.jpeg
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Conflicts in Libya; Naragano Karabakh and the 2014/15 Donbass campaign where UASs of various types were extensively employed by both sides in a variety of tasks and accounted for the bulk of the hard kills; not to mention the psychological element were the first 'drone wars'.

To me the first indication of where things were headed with regards to the vast potential of UASs was not the ''War On Terror'' which saw high end UASs targeting America's enemies [and non combatants unfortunate to be at the wrong place and the wrong time] but the war in Syria and Iraq which saw non state groups effectively using commercial off the shelf systems for a variety of roles. Then came the war in the Donbas in which the Russians very effectively deployed UASs at a operational and tactical level as part of a strike/recce complex; plus Libya and the Azeri/Armenian war in which UASs dominated the headlines.

We keep hearing of Russian UASs claimed destroyed by the Ukrainians but details of Ukrainian UASs losses are scarce; even on Oryx.

I for one would be very interested in finding out what accounted for the bulk of UASs kills by both sides and how effective EW was/is interfering with their comms/data links.

In 2016, the Ukraine received a batch of U.S. supplied Ravens. These however were ''ineffective against jamming and hacking'' according to the Ukrainians.


''The Air Force command of Ukraine’s armed forces acknowledged to Reuters that the Ravens supplied by the United States had a fundamental drawback: Russia and the separatist forces it supports can intercept and jam their video feeds and data.''

“The complex is analog, therefore command channels and data are not protected from interception and suppression by modern means of electronic warfare,” it said.''

''U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that Russia’s electronic warfare capabilities were far more sophisticated than thought when the conflict began and that both the U.S. and Ukrainian militaries were adapting.''
 
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ngatimozart

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Verified Defense Pro
@Feanor those Bofors 40mm guns mightn't be modern, but against helicopters they don't require modern sighting systems and ammo. The Mk 1 eyeball and standard sights, along with good training will dispose of most helicopters on the battle field. During WW2 they were knocking down aircraft traveling at 400+ mph. The could still ruin a Su-25 Frogfoot crew's day quite easily even though it is one tough bird.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
The Karbala ambush involving S-60s and ZSUs is a classic example of how older lower tech stuff can do damage when well trained and alerted crews have planned accordingly and also have luck on their side. Early warning was in the form of spotters and the town's power grid was momentarily switched off to alert various teams which also had cell phones for communications. Granted; the Iraqis never replicated their success and the Americans learnt and refined their tactics but the results were unexpected to say the least and the Iraqis did well.

The Bofors [I presume a L/70] would be very useful for specific tasks but I have to wonder if the Ukrainians are getting some stuff they would rather not. Also, have there been any reports of the large quantity of former DDR Strelas Germany announced it was sending back in March?
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Another batch of Russian volunteer fighters leaving Grozny for Ukraine..
Have there been any reports of Cossack volunteer units?

A newly formed Ukrainian unit wearing MK-6 and MK-7 helmets, supplied by the UK. Note the lack of body armor and the age of the soldiers.
All the Mk6s I've seen were painted in olive. This one's in blue; perhaps originally intended for the export riot control/para military market.

On another note this is a video from 2016 on the effectiveness of Russian EW.


Event that took place in 2014/15 must have been a major shock and wake up call for the Ukrainians who found themselves severely disadvantaged by Russia's EW capabilities. There was also a widely reported incident when Russia sent text messages to the phones of Ukrainian service members. The Russians were also able to disrupt the Ukrainian cell phone network; which they have been unwilling or unable to do at present. According to an expert in a article I read somewhere; this is possibly because unlike the case in 2015/15 the Russians are now relying to a large extent on the Ukrainian cell phone network for their own needs.

Founded in 2014 by IT experts Aerorozvidka [at one time stood down] has played a crucial role. Comprising IT/UAS experts/enthusiasts it has come up with a few designs of its own and has extensively modified commercial off the shelf ones to carry ordnance. I have no idea if Russia has an equivalent; a non governmental but officially supported group of volunteer experts/enthusiasts involved in UAS related stuff; supplementing the local industry.

 
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STURM

Well-Known Member

Interesting discussion. One of the speakers is Michael Kaufman. Very points discussed on the current situation and how things might pan out.

- Despite Russia not being a country which follows the rule of law, it's very procedural - can't fully mobilise its conscripts/reservists unless a state of war is declared.

- Things might have been slightly different had the Russian political leadership told the military that it might have a major protracted fighting on its hands; instead it fooled itself into believing that the Ukrainian military would melt away and that Russian troops would be welcomed as liberators.

- The Russian military leadership.never expected that it would be called upon to undertake a major strategic offensive. The expectation was that short wars of a limited nature would be waged; units trained for this eventuality and logistics were based on this.

- Despite the low moral.and poor discipline we have not seen mass Russian surrenders or desertions.

- In addition to.being told that it would not face wide scale resistance, the Russian military was apparently also genuinely unaware of various deep rooted problems it faced.

- As the war drags on the Ukraine with its vast reserves and foreign assistance is in a much better position than Russia.

- The possibility that the offensive in the east may be the last for the Russians with even Kherson in the near future having to be evacuated.

- Despite TB2s, Javelins and NLAWs grabbing the headlines it has been Ukrainian artillery which has caused a lot of Russian casualties and stopped a lot of attacks. Russian arty has been generally ineffective in neutralising .Ukrainian arty.

- The Ukrainians have done a great job enabling us to see what they want us to see. Their losses have been significant but largely unknown to the outside world.
 
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Feanor

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Staff member
Unconfirmed reports of mass surrender at Azovstal'. Reportedly over 300 have surrendered including approximately 50 wounded. Confirmation is pending but in principle this makes sense. Supplies and ammo are scarce, and rescue is obviously not coming. With continue pressure from Russian and rebel forces, some sort of crisis was inevitable.


EDIT: First confirmation of surrendered fighters including wounded. They are being taken to a prison colony in Yelenovka, Russia. This is where a number of other Ukrainian POWs are kept.

 
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CJR

Member
Unconfirmed reports of mass surrender at Azovstal'. Reportedly over 300 have surrendered including approximately 50 wounded. Confirmation is pending but in principle this makes sense. Supplies and ammo are scarce, and rescue is obviously not coming. With continue pressure from Russian and rebel forces, some sort of crisis was inevitable.
Ukrainian sources are reporting it as an exchange of Russian PoWs for the evacuation of wounded from Azovstal rather than a surrender:

Edit: And Ukrainian government statement... So, looks like one could argue it's technically a surrender but with a prisoner exchange pre-arranged... And, of cause, even if the prisoner exchange somehow falls through the media attention makes it harder for the Russians to 'just' disappear the Ukrainian combatants into the nearest available mass-grave.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

US base media begin to quote Ukrainian source that admitted on ordering surender. Off course this one needs to be seen on follow up. However this if true is first real admission from Ukrainian side the situation in Azovstal is hopeless.

Whatever it is being call, surender is surender. Each side of this war will try to find their own justifications. Russian call it strategic redeployment when they are retreating from Kyiev and Sumy front. Now Ukrainian call surrender for exchange priosoners, on Azovstal.

The Ukrainians have done a great job enabling us to see what they want us to.see. Their losses have been significant but largely unknown to the outside world.
This is from end of March already turning on War of Attrition. Each pro west/ukraine and pro russian pundits doing their own pods discusions on line. Each provide different opinion on whose winning on this stage of war of attrition.

In the end since April this is going to be decided in Donbas front. The result in Donbas will be shown whether which sides will have enough resources left on breaking further lines. Personally since April I already put in this thread, Russia will keep their minimum aim on getting four oblast, Kherson, Zaparozhye, Donentsk and Luhansk. Those four oblasts is the minimum need for Russia on their two main aim of the special operation. Donentsk-Luhansk peoples Republic liberation and Crimea security.

If they manage to push Ukraine from Donbas, regardless of whatever supplies that West can send to Ukraine, it remains on one question. Will Ukraine still have enough seasons troops to do offensive.

I do believe looking at Russian sources talking recently. If they manage to solidified their possition on those four oblast, Russia will dig in, and call it victory of their 'special military operation'. After that they will see if Ukraine will have enough seasons troops left to counter their position on those four oblast.

Then we can see whose pundits predictions that will come to reality.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I wrote a comment in another thread about an incident over Syria in which the single S-300 system it has, has fired for the first time on Israeli aircraft.


The details are there, but very briefly this is an escalation between Russia and Israel.
  • We know Israel has publicly attended the last summit in Ramstein on arming Ukraine.
  • We also know Israel has been mediating between Russia and Ukraine from the start.
  • Finally, we also know Israel remains silent about its contributions there.
Take it however you wish, but it is my estimate that Israel will seek to become a supplier and/or a security guarantor for Ukraine when this war settles down.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
The result in Donbas will be shown whether which sides will have enough resources left on breaking further lines.
It will but as it stands the Ukraine does not have the manpower issues Russia has [unlike Russia the Ukraine can fully mobilise] and foreign arms transfers are having a great effect. Taking various factors into context; the Ukraine is in a far better position to sustain itself in a long drawn out attritional fight.

Personally since April I already put in this thread, Russia will keep their minimum aim on getting four oblast, Kherson, Zaparozhye, Donentsk and Luhansk.
That is obvious but if things get worse even holding on to what it currently holds may be an issue for Russia.

If they manage to solidified their possition on those four oblast, Russia will dig in, and call it victory of their 'special military operation'.
Yes but if they still come under constant attack and if the Ukrainians look like they are making local progress in various sectors; it will be hard for the Russians to maintain the claim of victory. Time is on the side of the Ukrainians.
 
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Exonian

New Member
The prisoner exchange involving some of the defenders of Mariupol can be presented as a Ukraine victory.
  • The defenders have completed their Special Military Operation of tying up and degrading a number of Russian units beyond the 9th May.
  • Also an exchange of Russian prisoners relieves the need to commit Ukraine resources to keeping them secure.
I am sure the Russian soldiers returning to their units will be able to spread the word of how well they have fought,
perhaps Ukraine might show them some video footage of the destroyed vehicles on the road to Kyiv, or the abortive river crossing to remind them how well they have done.

Edit - I was thinking as a pro-Ukraine propaganda exercise it would be possible to compile a short compilation video (using clips from this thread for example). The video could explain that the soldiers had been lied to about the Special Military Operation, with clips from TV around the world USA Al Jazeera etc. It could show some combat footage, including Ukraine forces without giving away any secrets. Show them footage of destroyed Russian equipment, and I do not mean corpses. Also pictures of destroyed or damaged schools and hospitals. Finally some pictures of military aid arriving from across the globe. Then give them a good meal and have them handed over by a unit of well trained well equipped soldiers.

It is of course possible that Moscow might not want them going around spreading news of their 'successes'!
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
The prisoner exchange involving some of the defenders of Mariupol can be presented as a Ukraine victory.
Not related to the war per see but as part of an exchange involving a U.S. citizen Russia wants Viktor Bout released. In the 1990's the Ukraine held vast stockpiles of arms and ammo of various kinds. A lot of it ended up in various African and other countries. The irony is that years later the Ukrainians - even before the invasion - faced an acute shortage of various types of arms. I remember a pic showing Ukrainians armed with a Maxim.

I am sure the Russian soldiers returning to their units will be able to spread the word of how well they have fought
I would think that some Russian units relatively well; it wasn't a case of every single unit being comprised on badly motivated and ill discipline troops.

As was mentioned in a video I posted previously; amidst all the mention of demoralised and ill trained Russian troops it's worth noting that there have not been mass surrenders or desertions [this time around they aren't NKVD troops in the rear waiting to use PPSHs on anyone retreating].
 

swerve

Super Moderator
... Also, have there been any reports of the large quantity of former DDR Strelas Germany announced it was sending back in March?
Don't have them to hand, but I've seen reports. This is from memory -

They'd been in storage for a long time, & there was mould (a health hazard) on packaging, which caused delays. The mould needed to be cleaned up, then each one checked & if necessary refurbished. IIRC most- maybe all - needed new batteries & only about 700 out of 2700 could be delivered quickly, with many needing more to be done. But it seems they've all been overhauled & delivered now.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
... Personally since April I already put in this thread, Russia will keep their minimum aim on getting four oblast, Kherson, Zaparozhye, Donentsk and Luhansk. Those four oblasts is the minimum need for Russia on their two main aim of the special operation. Donentsk-Luhansk peoples Republic liberation and Crimea security....
That requires successful Russian offensives & the capture of at least one more big city. Since capturing Kherson early on, the only city of any size they've captured is Mariupol, and that was the only city they've attacked which was completely cut off from help. It took them three months with massive material & numerical superiority, far more than they could muster for an attack on Zaporizhzhia. It's twice the size of Mariupol, & difficult to isolate. It'd be a meatgrinder for the Russian army.

I think they're more likely to try to hang on to the parts of Zaporizhzhia oblast they already hold & focus on the east. And even there, their attempts to seize all of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts are struggling. Consider the recent river crossing attempt. They only tried it because other lines of attack had been blocked. And the Ukrainians have been whittling away the northern arm of the big pincer movement the Russians've been trying.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
With losses taken unless they have a year to rebuild or go to full mobilisation the Russian forces really arent in a position to do much more of anything of note. The personnel and equipment wasted trying to take Kiev and Kharkov and even pushing beyond Kherson are all resources that would have been better utilized in their current percieved objectives. IMO the Russian strategy seems to have gone from aiming for the greatest objective and after wasting resources and personnel in the failure then lowering the standards but not having the resources or personnel for those lower standards because they were wasted on the impossible.

The fact that Finland is now almost certain to join NATO means more Russian forces will have to be deployed along their border for a just in case moment means Russia is even more limited in what active forces they can field or deploy in Ukraine.

Even if it becomes a dig in and hold strategy it still isn't a good one. It isn't a fixed well manned front line preventing any enemy encroachment; to which apparently Ukrainian forces have used to strike wel behind Russian lines (such as that tank that is claimed to have been taken out with an ATGM some 12km behind the lines, if my memory serves me).

If anything the current front line and the potential for what the Ukrainians could do, reminds me more of WWI in which the 1st AIF used a tactic called peaceful pentration to sneak behind lines, cause havoc and capture territory

(OT but a bit of history of its success —British command was planning a small offensive. Before they had even completed the plans, the tactic of peaceful pentration had already captured the targeted area's and beyond them — will source the dates if anyone is interested).
 
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OPSSG

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Staff member
Shift in Nordic security policy

1. I think Russia needs to worry more about Ukraine’s cross border attack than from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Finland or Sweden.

The fact that Finland is now almost certain to join NATO means more Russian forces will have to be deployed along their border for a just in case moment means Russia is even more limited in what active forces they can field or deploy in Ukraine.

Even if it becomes a dig in and hold strategy it still isn't a good one. It isn't a fixed well manned front line preventing any enemy encroachment; to which apparently Ukrainian forces have used to strike wel behind Russian lines (such as that tank that is claimed to have been taken out with an ATGM some 12km behind the lines, if my memory serves me).
2. I think Russia can take some risk and keep their border with Finland lightly guarded. I don’t think they are reallly concerned with matching NATO, as this American led alliance is not going to go on attack.

3. Sweden has joined Finland in signalling its intention to sign up to the transatlantic military alliance after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked a security rethink.
(a) Magdalena Andersson, Sweden's prime minister, said the move marked a new "era" — Sweden’s announcement came after a debate in the Riksdagen on 16 May 2022 showed that there is huge support for joining NATO. Out of Sweden’s eight parties, only two smaller left-leaning parties opposed it.​
(b) On 17 May 2022, Finland’s parliament voted 188 for (8 against and 3 absent), on the plan to seek membership in a defence alliance with NATO (alongside Sweden), marking a historic shift in the Nordic nations’ security policy.​
(c) The UK Joint Expeditionary Force participant nations, consist of, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway. Eight of the countries are also members of NATO, with Finland and Sweden currently outside that alliance — set up in 2014 — more relevant than ever. Finland and Sweden joining NATO will boost its coherence and potential.​

4. The two are applying for entry into NATO to deter aggression from Russia. Public opinion in the European Union members — that have shunned military alliances for as long as two centuries — shifted overnight after Russia began waging a war in Ukraine in February, brushing off President Vladimir Putin’s demands that the organization not enlarge toward it.

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5. President Biden will be hosting Sweden’s PM Andersson and Finland’s President Niinistö on 19 May 2022 (Thurs).
(a) The meeting is designed to speed up their NATO applications; and the US State Department is running calls and meetings with Turkey to remove objections; it should be noted the Turkey has and can veto NATO projects — this is not new — Turkey blocked NATO's Polish-Baltic defence plan in 2019 (the plan, known as Eagle Defender), until a compromise was reached in July 2020, after months of talks over Turkey's demand to receive more support. Time will tell whether or not this stunt will work in favor of Turkey or not. I am however, positive Finland and Sweden will join NATO.​
(b) If the objections are removed, Sweden and Finland can begin accession talks — these will take place at NATO Headquarters in Brussels — and bring together teams of NATO experts and representatives of the individual invitees. Their aim is to obtain formal confirmation from the invitees of their willingness and ability to meet the political, legal and military obligations and commitments of NATO membership.​
 
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