The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
So the Ukrainian armed forces claims that they have heavily damaged the Admiral Essen.
We will see later if this claim is true, the Ukrainians have earlier lied about the killing of the 13 border guards of Zmiily and the destruction of tge Project 22160 ship Vasily Bykov.
Time will tell, any big losses reported by the otherside wihout evidence should be dismissed. The mystery of the Il-76s is still unresolved. We got photos and video evidence of almost all fixed wing Rusiaan losses, when they fell within Ukrainian spaces, but still no proof of the 2 largest planes to be shot down.

If a ship as big as a frigate got hit, we should see pictures come in soon. Ukraine deos certainly have the ability to hit Russian ships, even older ashms can do massive damage if they penetrate the anti missile defenses and I have never really seen Russian CIWS systems in action before. This whole war was a terrible advertisement of Russia's ability to control air space from incoming aerial or missile attacks. The Belgorod attack was humiliating.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
1. States grant an army power to use lethal force; but power also imposes a profound responsibility on commanders of an army. Russian commanders in obeying orders to invade Ukraine have failed in their responsibility to prevent war crimes; and given what I have seen, I can no longer consider the Russian Army, as an army. These are just criminals. Armies are supposed to be a profession at arms. The Russian Army, in:

(i) abandoning their war dead;​
(ii) behaving like thieves. Russian soldiers looted the houses which were not destroyed, drank all the alcohol they could find and started shipping stolen stuff back home at a Belarusian parcel delivery service near the Ukrainian border; and​
(iii) targeting Ukrainian civilians,​

lack the vital mindset of being professional.

2. People calling for a specific response to Bucha are taking an atrocity out of its proper context. This has always been the Russian plan. The Ukrainian will to resist is driven by the knowledge of Russian plans — better to die facing the enemy than being shot in the back.

3. Evil has a name & the horrid images coming out of Bucha are just the tip of the iceberg. In the last few days we've seen images and videos of what appears to be large numbers of civilian fatalities, some with their hands tied behind their backs in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Bucha and Motyzhyn. The soldiers of the Russian Army were not fleeing & killing civilians by mistake.

4. If you think photos and videos from Bucha are sickening, just wait for Mariupol. Kadyrov’s Chechens there are not known for their gentle approach and deep respect for the Geneva conventions.

5. In other news, a Red Cross (ICRC) team sent to help evacuate civilians from Mariupol is being held hostage by Russian police. Team was stopped "while carrying out humanitarian efforts to lead a safe passage for civilians" & “is being detained in the town of Mangush, 20km west of Mariupol.”
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Footage of the combat departure of Ka-52 attack helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces was published by the Ministry of Defense. The combat mission was to find and destroy the camouflaged positions of the Ukrainian army. The pilots successfully completed the task by using guided and unguided S-8 missiles from low altitudes.


After the transfer of a group of Russian troops from Kiev to Donbass to complete a special operation to liberate these territories, Ukrainian troops entered the Antonov International Airport in the village of Gostomel. One of the eyewitnesses took a close-up of the wreckage of the largest aircraft in the world An-225 "Mriya". Ukraine destroyed the world's largest AN-225 Mriya transport aircraft with its own hands. It happened because of the shelling of Antonov airport by Ukrainian troops.

Soldier25 we've warned you before about simply posting videos without input. Since then you've continued to spam videos, after adding what you deemed the minimal context necessary to get past the requirement. This forum sets an expectation of meaningful contributions. Adding to that, all your videos are from the same youtube channel creating at least the perception that you are attempting to advertise the channel. This forum is for discussions of the topic, not spam or self-promotion.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I am putting these two videos in here because though they are Ukrainian civilian aviation specific, Antonov Airlines, they are about the war and the conduct of Russian military personnel during the occupation of the Antonov Airline base of operations at Gostomel Airport. It includes footage of the AN-225 Mrya, it's hangar and the other facilities. The videos are video blogs by Capt Dymtro Antonov the Chief Pilot of Antonov Airlines and the main command pilot of Mrya. The Russians stole computers, hard drives, and every document that they could lay their hands on. They ransacked the place looking for documents. They took all the maintenance records, manuals, everything except a microwave.

There's a change of management of the company and some have been declared traitors by him for not flying the company's aircraft to safety, out of the country. In an earlier vblog he ripped right into them.

In this vblog he says that the majority of the destruction and damage to the aircraft on the ground was caused by Russian troops on the ground through arson. He said that there was little evidence of shell or rocket craters around the destroyed aircraft and many bullet holes fired from the aircraft to destroy vital components. It looks like the plan was to completely destroy Antonov Airlines and Ukrainian aviation. He wouldn't be surprised that some of the stolen documents turn up in the future as the Russians attempt to blackmail the Antonov Company.

After what he said in the last video, I think the Mrya wasn't destroyed in an air attack, artillery or rocket strike. It may have been structurally damaged in the wing spars, but the damage on it away from the cockpit area looked like mainly gun shot in places apart from the hole gouged in the front of the port horizontal stabilizer. Around the forward fuselage the aircraft is destroyed by fire which appears to be centred on the cockpit area.
 

Twain

Active Member
"Bloomberg breaks: U.S. Ambassador to Poland Mark Brzezinski is set to sign a deal tomorrow with Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak to buy 250 upgraded M1A2 tanks, ammunition, support and recovery vehicles, GPS receivers and other equipment"



If this isn't true I think it is just a matter of time until it is. The longer this goes on, more and more modern equipment is going to be supplied to Ukraine. Personally I think they need to open the gates and send them as much as they can use, up to and including ADS, F-16's etc. No they can't put them to good use right now but this isn't going to end anytime soon. Even if Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire tomorrow, it isn't over, it's just a matter of time until the Russians try to take another bite out of Ukraine. Give them what they can put to use right now but also start training them on maintaining and operating western equipment right now.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Around Kiev.

A destroyed Tor-M1 in Brovary. There seems to be some contention about whether it is Russia or Ukrainian.


A destroyed Ukrainian truck, Bucha.


The North.

Russian strike at an alleged Ukrainian munitions dump near Chernigov.


Ukrainian military boats on the water, the Dnepr, near Chernigov.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Battle damage in Balakleya, allegedly from Ukrainian shelling. The city is currently claimed to be in Russian hands.


Abandoned BTR-4 near Kharkov. Possibly one of the ones we've seen earlier.


Another abandoned BTR-4 near Kharkov. Note the different camo.


Poletaping, Kharkov, context unclear.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrvosk.

Destroyed planes of the 25th Aviation Bde, Ukrainian, near Melitopol'.


Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian strikes on Nikolaev.


Russian cruise missile flying towards Nikolaev.


LDNR Front.

Russian UAV-directed strikes near Izyum.


Air defenses firing over Makeevka, Donetsk.


Rebel forces in the depot at Popasnaya.


TOS-1 firing near Izyum.


Another look at the rebel Nona-MT-LB hybrid.


Captured Ukrainian equipment near Izyum.


Ukrainian troops near Artemovsk.


Russian forces near Izyum.


A rebel mortar platoon near Lisichansk.


Russian Su-25 over Gorlovka.


Russian Mi-28 near Popasnaya.


Assorted footage of Russian and rebel forces, Donbass.


Mariupol'.

Russian and rebel forces in Mariupol', fighting.


Russian troops moving around Mariupol'. Note the UR-77 near the end. It's a mineclearing vehicle but since the Chechen wars, it's highly destructive payload has been used to clear enemy positions. Its devastating in urban areas and might be responsible for some of the heavy damage we've seen. In terms of combat style, it and the TOS-1 we've seen are of the "bury them under ruins" variety.


Rebel forces clearing houses in Mariupol'.


Chechen fighters in Mariupol'. Slightly less silly this time, but it's still hard to tell if this is even real or staged.


Russian strikes at Azovstal'.


Surrendering Ukrainian Marines in Mariupol'. There information that Russia offered surrender terms to Ukrainian troops still fighting in Mariupol'. This might be connected to the surrender.


Battle damage in Mariupol'.


Russian and rebel forces, Maripol'.


Improvised cemetery, Mariupol'.


Rebel Troops of the Interior EOD are clearing UXO, mines, and booby traps, from Mariupol'.


Captured Ukrainian MT-LB, modified with a BTR or BRDM turret, and likely elevated roof section.


Destroyed Ukrainian S-300 command vehicle near Berdyansk.


The West.

Kremenchug oil refinery battle damage.


Misc.

UAV recordings of Russian strikes, location and context unclear.


Russian Orion UAV striking target, location and context unclear.


Russian Tor-M2 firing, context and location unclear.


Destroyed Ukrainian 30N6 radar, location and context unclear.


Ukraine, destroyed armored Humvee burning. Location and context unclear.


Captured Ukrainian Kozak armored car. Location and context unclear.


More civilian poletaping, Ukraine. Location and context unclear.


Russian National Guard, guarding an airfield in Ukraine. Location unclear.


A Pantsyr with 8 stars, for 8 shoot downs. Allegedly one was a Ukrainian helo.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I am putting these two videos in here because though they are Ukrainian civilian aviation specific, Antonov Airlines, they are about the war and the conduct of Russian military personnel during the occupation of the Antonov Airline base of operations at Gostomel Airport. It includes footage of the AN-225 Mrya, it's hangar and the other facilities. The videos are video blogs by Capt Dymtro Antonov the Chief Pilot of Antonov Airlines and the main command pilot of Mrya. The Russians stole computers, hard drives, and every document that they could lay their hands on. They ransacked the place looking for documents. They took all the maintenance records, manuals, everything except a microwave.

There's a change of management of the company and some have been declared traitors by him for not flying the company's aircraft to safety, out of the country. In an earlier vblog he ripped right into them.

In this vblog he says that the majority of the destruction and damage to the aircraft on the ground was caused by Russian troops on the ground through arson. He said that there was little evidence of shell or rocket craters around the destroyed aircraft and many bullet holes fired from the aircraft to destroy vital components. It looks like the plan was to completely destroy Antonov Airlines and Ukrainian aviation. He wouldn't be surprised that some of the stolen documents turn up in the future as the Russians attempt to blackmail the Antonov Company.

After what he said in the last video, I think the Mrya wasn't destroyed in an air attack, artillery or rocket strike. It may have been structurally damaged in the wing spars, but the damage on it away from the cockpit area looked like mainly gun shot in places apart from the hole gouged in the front of the port horizontal stabilizer. Around the forward fuselage the aircraft is destroyed by fire which appears to be centred on the cockpit area.
It would make sense. the An-124 and 225 family are fundamentally military aircraft. It makes little sense not to destroy them, unless you have such solid control of the area that they will be a total asset. Remember, Russian forces were counter-attacked pretty hard at that airfield, and according to some reports at one point driven out. If you took an airfield full of those kinds of planes, and were then getting pushes out by enemy forces, would you leave them behind and intact?

On the subject of document looting, Russia has an An-124 fleet of it's own, and has had difficulties maintaining them. It's possible documents were stolen to that end. Not sure about the blackmail angle. Is there information in there that would lend itself to blackmail?
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It would make sense. the An-124 and 225 family are fundamentally military aircraft. It makes little sense not to destroy them, unless you have such solid control of the area that they will be a total asset. Remember, Russian forces were counter-attacked pretty hard at that airfield, and according to some reports at one point driven out. If you took an airfield full of those kinds of planes, and were then getting pushes out by enemy forces, would you leave them behind and intact?

On the subject of document looting, Russia has an An-124 fleet of it's own, and has had difficulties maintaining them. It's possible documents were stolen to that end. Not sure about the blackmail angle. Is there information in there that would lend itself to blackmail?
There would be quite a bit of commercially sensitive information I would suspect. Contracts etc.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
It's tricky to say for sure. Russia has already been pushing south of Izyum to encircle the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk area. This would presumably be met with a thrust out of Zaporozhye area to the north-east. If these two arms meet up, Ukraine's largest and best organized force is encircled in the east. If they dig in and fight to the death in the ruins of those twin cities, it could be another 3-5 weeks of mop up operations. The question is.... does phase 2 involve anything else? Russia pulled back from surrouding Chernigov, but not Kharkov or Sumy so far. And the north-ward prong towards Slavyansk-Kramatorsk comes out of the Kharkov area. Are assaults on Kharkov and Sumy in the works? What about Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog, or Zaporozhye?
Don't know and the OSINT maps seem to again show a wide front in the east, perhaps too wide for Russia to handle right now. But if they actually scale down the fighting, we can see a reversal of the new casualty ratio.

A few speculations on my part:
1. Russia will entrench significant forces for its own guerilla campaign in whatever territory it's in now. This to meet a Ukrainian assault that is due at least at some point. If not now then in a few months, years.
2. Close combat will be avoided by Russia, and artillery, drones, and SIGINT again prioritized.
3. Pushes will be slow and coordinated as small operations rather than a wartime push.
4. Said pushes will be done mostly by light infantry, armor at a bare minimum. Preferably by special operation units rather than regular infantry.
5. VDV and marines will be either relegated to regular infantry missions or withdrawn.
6. As an exception, some big pushes from the east are expected to generate symbolic victories for RU in the short term, after which RU might consolidate in its new territories. All to be done before the May 9th victory day parade to score PR points at home and thus create an influx of motivated soldiers into the army.
 

Twain

Active Member
I know getting in first is important with propaganda, however when the evidence looks overwhelming it seems stupid to highlight it and bring it to everyone's (UN/worlds) attention. Another mistake by the Master Strategist.

Internet sleuths/anonymous/Ukraine intelligence are attributing the Bucha Massacre to this man Lieutenant Colonel Omurbekov Azatbek Asanbekovich, military unit 51460 I think on the basis he was in charge of that unit and it was known to be in control of the area of that time. Not direct evidence. Bellingcat look at Russian denials Russia’s Bucha “Facts” Versus the Evidence - bellingcat

I don't disagree with this at all, but we are not the intended audience. It's just like flight MH17. Throw enough shit out there and cloud the facts enough so that the target audience can claim disbelief. Not at all different than claiming AZOV is a threat to the Ukraine gov't. Azov is about 1500 people (and falling rapidly) out of a military of approx, 200,000, less than 1%. At the same time the far right in Ukraine got somewhere around 3% of the votes in their best election outcome. Yet Ukraine needs to be de- nazified by a fascist kleptocratic regime. Up is down, white is black and the moon is made of cheese.

Just to make matters even more clear, Russian state media is calling for outright genocide of Ukrainians.


Several people on here have complained about binary value judgements, not sure anyone can make it clearer than Ria Novosti. No matter how you put it, The ukrainian government (warts and all) is greatly preferable to Putin and the Russian government. It is a clear binary choice here, If things like the massacre in Bucha, city officials being executed for not cooperating with the russians, ria novosti calling for genocide isn't enough for you to make a value judgement, it's time for some inner reflection.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Don't know and the OSINT maps seem to again show a wide front in the east, perhaps too wide for Russia to handle right now. But if they actually scale down the fighting, we can see a reversal of the new casualty ratio.
Do we even know the casualty ratio? I suspect Ukraine's body count is significant higher with high-casualty events like strikes on barracks, basing locations and staging areas.

A few speculations on my part:
1. Russia will entrench significant forces for its own guerilla campaign in whatever territory it's in now. This to meet a Ukrainian assault that is due at least at some point. If not now then in a few months, years.
Would you be able to elaborate on this? What do you envision?

2. Close combat will be avoided by Russia, and artillery, drones, and SIGINT again prioritized.
Well this is hardly a prediction. Even now Russia is trying to do this, just not necessarily succeeding. Russian BTGs are all about artillery, drones and SIGINT.

3. Pushes will be slow and coordinated as small operations rather than a wartime push.
You don't think they will attempt to encircle the large force grouping in the East? I don't think this can be a small and slow push.

4. Said pushes will be done mostly by light infantry, armor at a bare minimum. Preferably by special operation units rather than regular infantry.
Regular motor-rifles units are generally not well trained by infantry standards.

5. VDV and marines will be either relegated to regular infantry missions or withdrawn.
They already are. Except the helo assault at Gostomel', they're basically being used as regular infantry.

6. As an exception, some big pushes from the east are expected to generate symbolic victories for RU in the short term, after which RU might consolidate in its new territories. All to be done before the May 9th victory day parade to score PR points at home and thus create an influx of motivated soldiers into the army.
Do you think it will be symbolic? In my opinion the smart move would be to achieve an actual strategic defeat of Ukrainian forces in the east. In my opinion pushing the Ukrainian army out of the LDNR would not be a victory at all. It would essentially be a defeat.

EDIT: I have unconfirmed info of Russian troops pulling back from Chernigov and Sumy as well. I don't think they can withdraw from Kharkov, again that's where the Izyum thrust is coming from. Presumably the freed up forces can be used to either reinforce this push, or to try and assault Kharkov.
 
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QEDdeq

Member
It's tricky to say for sure. Russia has already been pushing south of Izyum to encircle the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk area. This would presumably be met with a thrust out of Zaporozhye area to the north-east. If these two arms meet up, Ukraine's largest and best organized force is encircled in the east. If they dig in and fight to the death in the ruins of those twin cities, it could be another 3-5 weeks of mop up operations. The question is.... does phase 2 involve anything else? Russia pulled back from surrouding Chernigov, but not Kharkov or Sumy so far. And the north-ward prong towards Slavyansk-Kramatorsk comes out of the Kharkov area. Are assaults on Kharkov and Sumy in the works? What about Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog, or Zaporozhye?
When trying to determine what's next after Donbass is important to consider that Russia is not destroying important bridges over the Dnepr although I think they have the means to do that. Also, except for a reported strike on Pavlograd's rail which had an immediate effect on Ukraine's efforts to reinforce and resupply Donbass they haven't tried to damage rail infrastructure elsewhere. There was some damage done to some rail in Odessa due to strikes on the fuel depots but I guess that was collateral damage. From a military point of view, if Russia's focus was on the East why would they not want to destroy the bridges and the main rail junctions situated west of Dnepr to make it harder for Ukraine to reinforce and resupply the East? Another case is the one of Nikolaev where if the bridge would be destroyed the city could be cut off from land routes if the bridge destruction is complemented with a move towards the North of the city along the M14 road.

To me this whole thing looks like either 1) the Russians having no idea what they want from this war beyond Donbass and corridor to Crimea or, 2) having a longer game plan that still aims at subjugating the whole country and install a friendly regime.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
For those who do want to See this for themselfs and in order to substantiate the claims made prior, here are the Videos warning graphic :


This is the Video oder the dead russian soldiers. We can see that one clearly has His hands tied behind his back and died from a gunshot to his head.

There might be a different explanation for this but to me it looks like an execution.


In this video we see one of the soldiers wounded but still alive beeing shot multiple times.

It would be interesting for me to know what is beeing said in this videos, If any russian speaker here has the stomach for this I would appreciate it.

It seems russian social Media is already busy identifying the ukrainians in this Video _and their relatives_. This is an extremly worriesome trend.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
For those who do want to See this for themselfs and in order to substantiate the claims made prior, here are the Videos warning graphic :


This is the Video oder the dead russian soldiers. We can see that one clearly has His hands tied behind his back and died from a gunshot to his head.

There might be a different explanation for this but to me it looks like an execution.


In this video we see one of the soldiers wounded but still alive beeing shot multiple times.

It would be interesting for me to know what is beeing said in this videos, If any russian speaker here has the stomach for this I would appreciate it.

It seems russian social Media is already busy identifying the ukrainians in this Video _and their relatives_. This is an extremly worriesome trend.
On the pro Ukranian sub reddits they are claiming this is Russian false flag and these are Ukrainians pow dressed as Russians...... The level of denial is insane.

With live transmition of war crimes ffrom both sides, the sentiment will turn very ugly. If both sides start a revenge tally on who can commit more crimes than the other it will be unthinkable. The internet's ability to multiply extreme sentiments is going to have some unforeseen consquences. We saw it in Syria wehere factions would upload more and more gruesome videos of executions to top one another. Just imagine if some ground level Russian officer decides to let the chechens loose as revenge, it will put the Balkan crimes to shame.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Russian independent journalist Farida Rustamova has been interviewed by NRK, the Norwegian National Broadcaster. She lives in hiding in an undisclosed location outside of Russia. She still has many contacts in Russia, and the message is chilling: The Russian elite are not abandoning Putin, on the contrary it seems they decide to stick with Putin. She says (google translated from Norwegian):

- Some of the sources are in the management of state-owned companies, some are in the government, do business with the government, they are civil servants, legislators, and people in the trade elite close to the government. These are sources I have had for a long time. Many say that the mood has changed, says Rustamova.

At the beginning of the war, they were shocked and frustrated by Putin's invasion. Now they are angry at the West, according to Rustamova.

- More and more people are now gathering around Putin.

In her newsletter, Rustamova tells, among other things, about a highly ranked Russian official. He is clear about what he now thinks about western countries:

'We're going to screw them. Now they have to buy rubles on the Moscow Stock Exchange to buy gas from us. But that's just the beginning. Now we're going to fuck them all. "
Uavhengig russisk journalist: Sanksjonene får eliten til å samle seg bak Putin – VG

This is going to get uglier and uglier. The West should make it clear that all sanctions will be lifted immediately if Russia stops the war. It's in their power to simply stop the war by pulling their troops back. Of course they are not going to do that, but they should nevertheless be given the option.

It's clear that the Russian propaganda about "genocide" and "nazi regime" in Ukraine has been very effective. It's very hard to reach Russians with information about the real political situation in Ukraine, and even harder to explain to Russians that their beloved Russian soldiers are killing civilians, raping, and looting. Many are now using "cold calling" to try to reach at least some people in Russia: The people cold calling to chip away at Russia's digital iron curtain - CNN
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
With live transmition of war crimes ffrom both sides, the sentiment will turn very ugly. If both sides start a revenge tally on who can commit more crimes than the other it will be unthinkable. The internet's ability to multiply extreme sentiments is going to have some unforeseen consquences.
Does not matter anymore. People will believe what they are going to believe. The West will block everything the Russian media and social media shown on attrocities in Mariupol. While Russian will block everything the Ukrainian and West put on attrocities in Bucha.

For the rest of the world that sitting in the fence, will only see that both war (war in the ground and trade war) will be prolong more.

Ukranian and West celebrating Russian pull out from North Ukraine as proof that Putin Phase 1 of this war is failures. While Russian and those who support them will see Phase 1 is a success, because it manage to solidified Russian and Donbas rebel possition in the East and South.

So everyone having their own perception and believes, while social media strengthening that.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
On the pro Ukranian sub reddits they are claiming this is Russian false flag and these are Ukrainians pow dressed as Russians...... The level of denial is insane.
Russians are well known for their false flag operations, so it should not be dismissed entirely. On the other hand in all wars we see war crimes, and often by all sides participating, so it should come as no surprise if also some Ukrainian soldiers are committing war crimes. All war crimes should be condemned and punished.
 

phreeky

Active Member
The West will block everything the Russian media and social media shown on attrocities in Mariupol.
No, the group of countries you seem to brand as "The West" do NOT "block everything the Russian media and social media show". That's just flat out incorrect. I can open and access them just fine, no VPN required, no warnings. In fact, it's also true for most countries that I assume you'd group as "The East". It's essentially only a select few countries blocking media, with Russia and China being the big two.

If you're going to continue claiming that countries are blocking media, back it up with sources.
 
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