The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Vivendi]

The US is now starting to ship Switchblade 600 (in addition to the 300), directly from the manufacturer. Only 10 initially, I guess this is more like a test before more are being manufactured and shipped?

Biden to send ultra-powerful Switchblade tank-killing 'kamikaze' drones to Ukraine - Euro Weekly News

About Switchblade and the Puma drone and how they work together: The Hunter-Killer Drone Team: U.S. Switchblades And Pumas Join Ukraine War (forbes.com)

 

[T.C.P]

Does not matter anymore. People will believe what they are going to believe. The West will block everything the Russian media and social media shown on attrocities in Mariupol. While Russian will block everything the Ukrainian and West put on attrocities in Bucha.

For the rest of the world that sitting in the fence, will only see that both war (war in the ground and trade war) will be prolong more.

Ukranian and West celebrating Russian pull out from North Ukraine as proof that Putin Phase 1 of this war is failures. While Russian and those who support them will see Phase 1 is a success, because it manage to solidified Russian and Donbas rebel possition in the East and South.

So everyone having their own perception and believes, while social media strengthening that.

I agree with you, but the intention of the post was different. I meant the use of the internet to one-up each other and to feed the public sentiment. Like in Syria different factions were rleasing more and more gruesome execution videos.

If the Russians and the Ukranians start using the internet as a 'who can commit more war crimes' challenge, it will be terrible.

 

[T.C.P]

The US is now starting to ship Switchblade 600 (in addition to the 300), directly from the manufacturer. Only 10 initially, I guess this is more like a test before more are being manufactured and shipped?

Biden to send ultra-powerful Switchblade tank-killing 'kamikaze' drones to Ukraine - Euro Weekly News

About Switchblade and the Puma drone and how they work together: The Hunter-Killer Drone Team: U.S. Switchblades And Pumas Join Ukraine War (forbes.com)

Kamikaze drones were really successful in the Azerbeijan-Armenia war, and the switch blades are the perfection of that concept. How easily could Russia and other non Western align countries copy this drone, if they capture one intact?

 

[QEDdeq]

Russian independent journalist Farida Rustamova has been interviewed by NRK, the Norwegian National Broadcaster. She lives in hiding in an undisclosed location outside of Russia. She still has many contacts in Russia, and the message is chilling: The Russian elite are not abandoning Putin, on the contrary it seems they decide to stick with Putin. She says (google translated from Norwegian):


Uavhengig russisk journalist: Sanksjonene får eliten til å samle seg bak Putin – VG

This is going to get uglier and uglier. The West should make it clear that all sanctions will be lifted immediately if Russia stops the war. It's in their power to simply stop the war by pulling their troops back. Of course they are not going to do that, but they should nevertheless be given the option.

It's clear that the Russian propaganda about "genocide" and "nazi regime" in Ukraine has been very effective. It's very hard to reach Russians with information about the real political situation in Ukraine, and even harder to explain to Russians that their beloved Russian soldiers are killing civilians, raping, and looting. Many are now using "cold calling" to try to reach at least some people in Russia: The people cold calling to chip away at Russia's digital iron curtain - CNN

This is also my impression after scrutinizing the Russian social media every day since the start of the war. The messages I see on their boards are increasingly towards support for the war and going till the bottom. There are calls for using strategic weapons and for taking revenge on Western Ukraine cities and infrastructure. At this point if Putin would somehow disappear it is more likely I think that a more radical faction would take power since they would have the popular support, rather than a more moderate one. This is a problem for the current leadership since if they moderate their approach there will be political backlash. For example yesterday when they announced a temporary ceasefire for today to evacuate Mariupol, there was backlash on their social media with many people asking why would Azov and foreign mercenaries would be allowed to leave the city. If Putin would pull out of the war now there will be severe political cost, the majority of the Russians seem to be fully behind the war and willing to punish Ukraine further. Many of them don't understand the retreat from North of Ukraine after so much blood was spilled there and they don't go along well with the official explanation of refocusing on Donbass. Again, this is just the trend I assess based on what I read on Russian social media and is not representative of the entire Russian society keeping in mind that many older people do not use social media and there are always people who think differently and who won't put those thoughts online.

As I said in other posts I think the key to end the war is in the hands of Ukraine, France and Germany, just like in the Minsk process and would involve in addition the promise of sanctions from the EU being lifted as well as a discussion on a new security architecture in Europe. A format that worked once may work again, although this is different and Merkel is no longer there to compromise on things. It is clear that Scholz is not made of the same material and he has a diferent approach less oriented towards appeasing the Russians. However, even if France and Germany would be interested in such a deal I doubt the US and UK want an end of the conflict or any of the new architecture shenanigans. The Brits are opening the champagne bottles right now since their main line in Europe for the last 30 years was to break any Berlin-Moscow axis taking any sort of shape. What happens now is the best case scenario for them and their main priority will be to keep things as they are with Russia heavily sanctioned and at odds with continental Europe. The US also has no interest on sanctions being lifted or in a new security architecture. The US aim is clear and it has been articulated by Biden, they want to play the regime change card. I've seen many people saying Biden didn't mean it but I don't believe that. When you are the leader of the free world you need to mean what you say and Biden of course knows that.

 

[GermanHerman]

No, the group of countries you seem to brand as "The West" do NOT "block everything the Russian media and social media show". That's just flat out incorrect. I can open and access them just fine, no VPN required, no warnings. In fact, it's also true for most countries that I assume you'd group as "The East". It's essentially only a select few countries blocking media, with Russia and China being the big two.

If you're going to continue claiming that countries are blocking media, back it up with sources.

I don't know how far the russian government goes in regards to blocking foreign media and internet access, I would however like to know more about this so I appreciate links about this.

What ever the case might be, russians are still able to use social media like telegramm which is also fairly common in germany and I imagine larger parts of the west. Therefore a total media control like the CCP has established in China can't be claimed for russia.

As for "the West": the EU did infact block access to russian state media Like RT and Sputnik. We can argue that these are legitimate steps and Sputnik and RT are propaganda outlets of the russian state. None the less it still "banning / blocking opposing media"

The EU’s “Ban” of RT and Sputnik: A Lawful Measure Against Propaganda for War

Denouncing Russian authorities‘ “muzzling“ of independent media and reiterating its support for media freedom and pluralism, the European Union banned two Russian media outlets in March 2022. This apparent contradiction between a statement of principle and concrete action can be resolved. While...

verfassungsblog.de

I know russia has and is activly silencing the domestic press by criminal means up to straight forward murder but I'm not aware of any kind of "great firewall" blocking access to foreign media?

 

[Vivendi]

As I said in other posts I think the key to end the war is in the hands of Ukraine, France and Germany, just like in the Minsk process and would involve in addition the promise of sanctions from the EU being lifted as well as a discussion on a new security architecture in Europe. A format that worked once may work again, although this is different and Merkel is no longer there to compromise on things. It is clear that Scholz is not made of the same material and he has a diferent approach less oriented towards appeasing the Russians. However, even if France and Germany would be interested in such a deal I doubt the US and UK want an end of the conflict or any of the new architecture shenanigans.

Unfortunately it's not that simple. After all the lies, deceits and war crimes committed by Putin and his cronies, Europe has zero trust in Russia and their broken promises. Europe tried negotiating and some naïve souls (including French president Macron) believed until the 24th of February that it was still possible to find a diplomatic solution.

What has happened to Ukraine is scaring Russia's neighbors. Finland and Sweden will submit their NATO application in a few weeks or months. Not because of "pressure" or a "secret plan" by US/UK but simply because they see that Russia is a threat to non-NATO countries, and they are afraid that Russia may attack them some time in the future. They now see a window of opportunity to join NATO while Russia is busy in Ukraine.

Russia's actions since February 24 is motivating Sweden/Finland to join NATO.

 

[John Fedup]

This is also my impression after scrutinizing the Russian social media every day since the start of the war. The messages I see on their boards are increasingly towards support for the war and going till the bottom. There are calls for using strategic weapons and for taking revenge on Western Ukraine cities and infrastructure. At this point if Putin would somehow disappear it is more likely I think that a more radical faction would take power since they would have the popular support, rather than a more moderate one. This is a problem for the current leadership since if they moderate their approach there will be political backlash. For example yesterday when they announced a temporary ceasefire for today to evacuate Mariupol, there was backlash on their social media with many people asking why would Azov and foreign mercenaries would be allowed to leave the city. If Putin would pull out of the war now there will be severe political cost, the majority of the Russians seem to be fully behind the war and willing to punish Ukraine further. Many of them don't understand the retreat from North of Ukraine after so much blood was spilled there and they don't go along well with the official explanation of refocusing on Donbass. Again, this is just the trend I assess based on what I read on Russian social media and is not representative of the entire Russian society keeping in mind that many older people do not use social media and there are always people who think differently and who won't put those thoughts online.

As I said in other posts I think the key to end the war is in the hands of Ukraine, France and Germany, just like in the Minsk process and would involve in addition the promise of sanctions from the EU being lifted as well as a discussion on a new security architecture in Europe. A format that worked once may work again, although this is different and Merkel is no longer there to compromise on things. It is clear that Scholz is not made of the same material and he has a diferent approach less oriented towards appeasing the Russians. However, even if France and Germany would be interested in such a deal I doubt the US and UK want an end of the conflict or any of the new architecture shenanigans. The Brits are opening the champagne bottles right now since their main line in Europe for the last 30 years was to break any Berlin-Moscow axis taking any sort of shape. What happens now is the best case scenario for them and their main priority will be to keep things as they are with Russia heavily sanctioned and at odds with continental Europe. The US also has no interest on sanctions being lifted or in a new security architecture. The US aim is clear and it has been articulated by Biden, they want to play the regime change card. I've seen many people saying Biden didn't mean it but I don't believe that. When you are the leader of the free world you need to mean what you say and Biden of course knows that.

Who controls ls most of the social media in Russia? I doubt anti-Putin people would be. As for Russian civilian support, if the body count numbers are as high has some estimates being reported and these numbers continue for another year or more combined with a screwed economy, can’t see support holding up.

 

[swerve]

...
As for "the West": the EU did infact block access to russian state media Like RT and Sputnik. We can argue that these are legitimate steps and Sputnik and RT are propaganda outlets of the russian state. None the less it still "banning / blocking opposing media"

The EU’s “Ban” of RT and Sputnik: A Lawful Measure Against Propaganda for War

Denouncing Russian authorities‘ “muzzling“ of independent media and reiterating its support for media freedom and pluralism, the European Union banned two Russian media outlets in March 2022. This apparent contradiction between a statement of principle and concrete action can be resolved. While...

verfassungsblog.de

Access not blocked. Broadcast licences within the EU cancelled. They can still operate websites in Russia which EU residents can access. Different thing from the Great Firewall, or active blocking of sites.

 

[GermanHerman]

Access not blocked. Broadcast licences within the EU cancelled. They can still operate websites in Russia which EU residents can access. Different thing from the Great Firewall, or active blocking of sites.

You are indeed right, that was clearly a mistake on my end. Apologies, I didnt check their websites and clearly misunderstood the news.

I'm still interested in the Situation in russia regarding the accesse of foreign media via internet though.

 

[Ananda]

you're going to continue claiming that countries are blocking media, back it up with sources.

Perhaps wrong choice of words. What I mean block in here more as blocking to counter. English not my first language anyway.

Blocking in here means one side will counter actively any information on this war that coming from the other side. Basically both sides playing misinformation accusations.

That's why I never say by blocking the media. You are who wrote that. I clearly say that each side will block anything that other side media shown. Clearly it's not mean blocking the access of media.

Just to be clear each side in here means each side mainstream media. Clearly there's going to be outliers media from each side.

 

[Vivendi]

Perhaps wrong choice of words. What I mean block in here more as blocking to counter. English not my first language anyway.

Blocking in here means one side will counter actively any information on this war that coming from the other side. Basically both sides playing misinformation accusations.

That's why I never say by blocking the media. You are who wrote that. I clearly say that each side will block anything that other side media shown. Clearly it's not mean blocking the access of media.

Just to be clear each side in here means each side mainstream media. Clearly there's going to be outliers media from each side.

It seems that you put media on "both sides" on the same level when it comes to "counter actively information on this war coming from the other side". Is that what you are trying to say? In any case of what you are trying to say: do you have sources to back up your claims?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Do we even know the casualty ratio? I suspect's body count is significant higher with high-casualty events like strikes on barracks, basing locations and staging areas.

We don't need to know precise casualty ratios. Just OSINT shows us massive amounts of losses for Russia, and Russia doesn't show as many casualties for Ukrainians.
Same OSINT could show us a trend of fewer Russian casualties, and more Ukrainian ones.

I trust Oryx on the numbers, and IIRC he does take Russian media footage into account.

Would you be able to elaborate on this? What do you envision?

Russia already lost too many forces in its offensives so far. So it will likely avoid an offensive as much as possible, and instead will focus on defense.
What further supports a more defensive Russian posture is the fact that Russia is numerically disadvantaged in enemy territory.

So in whatever territory Russia has occupied, it will likely try to dig in and wait for a Ukrainian offensive and thin their better trained and equipped units.
Universal law is defensive posture takes fewer resources than an offensive one, so makes sense.
This way also Russia will at least score some victory - territorial gains.

You don't think they will attempt to encircle the large force grouping in the East? I don't think this can be a small and slow push.

I think they will. Hence I said they will be very selective with any offensive. Some offensives when there is opportunity, and otherwise defensive posture.

Do you think it will be symbolic? In my opinion the smart move would be to achieve an actual strategic defeat of Ukrainian forces in the east. In my opinion pushing the Ukrainian army out of the LDNR would not be a victory at all. It would essentially be a defeat.

Humiliation is a powerful political tool and burden.
Putin was humiliated in Ukraine. Even if he wanted to pull out, he can't do that without some victory. So Russia needs some symbolic victory to rally the audience at home.

This is very common for dictatorships, tyrannies, or just about anywhere where media freedom doesn't exist.
Take the 2006 Lebanon war for example. Hezbollah's defeat was total. Militarily they could not score a single victory.
But they convinced their audience that Israel was there not to retrieve the kidnapped soldiers, or because of unwanted escalation, but to occupy Lebanon and enslave its people.
So when the ceasefire came into effect and the IDG withdrew, they claimed victory, saying "they're not here so we won!".

Biden talked about it for quite some time - on how to let Putin save face so he can withdraw whenever he wishes.

 

[STURM]

if the body count numbers are as high has some estimates being reported and these numbers continue for another year or more combined with a screwed economy, can’t see support holding up.

The problem is that as time passes and sanctions start to have an increasingly detrimental effect on ordinary Russians; many Russians who don't necessarily support Putin or his war in the Ukraine might rally to him. We also can't assume that Potin's replacement will be better.

Take the 2006 Lebanon war for example. Hezbollah's defeat was total. Militarily they could not score a single victory.

Not to get off topic but I was under the impression that there were no clear winners or losers on either side.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Not to get off topic but I was under the impression that there were no clear winners or losers on either side.

Militarily, Israel won. On the political level - none really gained anything as this was an escalation that gone out of control. None went in with very clear objectives. Hezbollah could be said to have objectives - negotiating via 2 kidnapped Israeli soldiers. But that's not something they were willing to go to war for.

What Putin needs is a way to say he won. Without that, he can't withdraw even if he wants to.

 

[T.C.P]

Just saw a Stugna taking out a Ka-52

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/twskls
What a hit! The operators were apparently not intentionally targetting the Ka-52 until the last second to not get caught by the KA-52's sensors. I have no idea if this is accurate or some random rabbling, the commenter did not mention a source.

 

[QEDdeq]

Who controls ls most of the social media in Russia? I doubt anti-Putin people would be. As for Russian civilian support, if the body count numbers are as high has some estimates being reported and these numbers continue for another year or more combined with a screwed economy, can’t see support holding up.

My assessment is based on user comments and reactions, not on the source materials being shared and which may be of course biased.

Regarding the resilience to economic downfall, do not underestimate the Russians when it comes to making a sacrifice. It all depends how it is being framed by the leadership. People in the East, especially Orthodox nations can be manipulated a long way with a narrative sounding something like this: ''It might be difficult for us, but look how it is for our brothers in x republic, they have nothing, we must help them from the little that we have''. People can be rallied around such a message of collective pain but that still gives a sense of meaning because pain is needed to help brothers who lost everything, their homes their jobs and so on. But to understand this in depth you need to be familiar with the collective psyche in that part of the world, for people who are not born and raised there is not easy to grasp.

 

[koxinga]

This is also my impression after scrutinizing the Russian social media every day since the start of the war. The messages I see on their boards are increasingly towards support for the war and going till the bottom. There are calls for using strategic weapons and for taking revenge on Western Ukraine cities and infrastructure. At this point if Putin would somehow disappear it is more likely I think that a more radical faction would take power since they would have the popular support, rather than a more moderate one. This is a problem for the current leadership since if they moderate their approach there will be political backlash.
-snipped-

That is not good. If the Russian elites together with Putin are painting this as historical struggle that Russia MUST win, they more likely this will drag on, which calls into doubt the sincerity of current negotiations. Y

 

[Ananda]

In any case of what you are trying to say: do you have sources to back up your claims?

What sources do you want ? Clear both side mainstream media is disrupting each other claim. I don't have to shown the example because it is obvious.

So yes, I'm saying both side media especially the mainstream media playing on propaganda parts to each other. If that in your thinking putting both side media in same level, well that's your saying.

Don't have the give example on Western media claiming war crime on bucha or Russian media shown Azov attrocities claim. You can search on your self how each sides try to debunk others claim.

 

[GermanHerman]

We don't need to know precise casualty ratios. Just OSINT shows us massive amounts of losses for Russia, and Russia doesn't show as many casualties for Ukrainians.
Same OSINT could show us a trend of fewer Russian casualties, and more Ukrainian ones.

I trust Oryx on the numbers, and IIRC he does take Russian media footage into account.

I think when Feanor talks about air strikes on staging areas and military barracks in regards to the casualty ratios he talks about KIA / WIA personnel and not material losses.

No one counts the bodies of the fallen, so I dont think oryx helps in that regard. Especially given the rather big chunk of russian Material losses that are just abandoned vehicles. How can we tell what happened to their crews?

Also we saw somehwat of a change in russias favor. Russia did start out with an 8:1 loss Ratio and now sits around roughly 4:1 ratio. But that might be due to back log, Oryx indicated that they are lagging behind somewhat around at least 600 russian losses.

I think when it comes to KIA / WIA ukriane must have suffered substantialy.

At least 50 soldiers died in the bombing of a military base near Mykolayiv.

AFP: At least 50 Ukrainian soldiers killed by Russian airstrike in Mykolayiv.

"At least 50 bodies have been recovered, but we do not know how many others are in the rubble," a Ukrainian serviceman on the ground, 22-year-old Maxim, told AFP. He said that some 200 soldiers had been sleeping in the barracks when Russian missiles struck the unit on March 18. Authorities have...

kyivindependent.com

There were a lot more bombings then this on comparable targets so I think its fair to asume the death count is rather high...

Prior to the Battle of Mariopol there were estimates of at least 4300 ukrainian troops inside the city with estimates going up all the way to 10.000. Most of these troops are either surrendered or dead.

We now see ugly pictures from Mariopol which allegedly show the remains of ukrian soldiers: warning graphic Images of corpses

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‍☠️☠️Жуткие кадры: Морпехи ВСУ сгорели в Мариуполе после в уничтоженном опорном пункте А их благоразумные товарищи вчера сдались целой толпой, сохранив свои жизни. t.me/btr80

t.me

I dont think that the ratio of people killed is nearly as favorable to ukraine as the material loss Ratio.

 

[John Fedup]

My assessment is based on user comments and reactions, not on the source materials being shared and which may be of course biased.

Regarding the resilience to economic downfall, do not underestimate the Russians when it comes to making a sacrifice. It all depends how it is being framed by the leadership. People in the East, especially Orthodox nations can be manipulated a long way with a narrative sounding something like this: ''It might be difficult for us, but look how it is for our brothers in x republic, they have nothing, we must help them from the little that we have''. People can be rallied around such a message of collective pain but that still gives a sense of meaning because pain is needed to help brothers who lost everything, their homes their jobs and so on. But to understand this in depth you need to be familiar with the collective psyche in that part of the world, for people who are not born and raised there is not easy to grasp.

While citizens may rally around a cause despite hardship along with supporting propaganda, I think long term mounting loss of life will impact opinion and especially as seriously wounded soldiers return. It could be their opinions on the war circulating within the population could impact support big time. IIRC, this scenario was a big reason Afghanistan involvement was ended. That being said, I realize Ukraine isn’t Afghanistan and the stakes are much higher for Russia (Putin).