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The Current Conflict In Syria

Discussion in 'Geostrategic Issues' started by kurama, Jan 12, 2018.

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  1. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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  2. KiwiRob

    KiwiRob Active Member

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    Turkey has started it invasion of the Syrian Kurdish territory, I hope the Kurds make it hell for them, I really do, the fact that an ethnic group of close to 40m people living in the same geographic location doesn't have their own homeland beggars belief.

    Turkey begins military offensive into Syria after US pulled back troops - CNNPolitics

     
  3. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    If this goes really bad for the Kurds, it will be another mega-crisis for the ME. I can see some Kurdish ex-fighters taking up a new career path and those who abandoned them will have a new group to watch out for.
     
  4. KiwiRob

    KiwiRob Active Member

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    I think the World should back a homeland for the Kurds, we created a country for the Jews after WW2, there were a lot less of them than there are Kurds today. It’s only fair.
     
  5. Feanor

    Feanor Super Moderator Staff Member

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    If the Afrin situation is any indication, the Turks won't have too big of a problem. It was a little shocking to me how hard the Turks were hit by ISIS when advancing on al-Bab, but how relatively easily they overran the Afrin enclave.
     
  6. Ananda

    Ananda Well-Known Member

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    Northern Iraq has been de facto Kurdish Homeland for sometime now. Turks invasions from what I read in their media seems aimed to build buffer zone between Syrian Kurdish territory with their border.

    We know this happen since PKK Kurdish fighter use it as staging area for infiltration to Turkish territory.
    Home land for Kurds if it's only be part of northern Iraq and Syrian Kurds near Iraq border could be happening considering political situation in Iraq and Syrian.

    However if it's included Turkey's Kurds..then I don't think it will happened. Turkey will crush it and with what happened throughout history..Turks will not hesitate to crush any Kurds movement which they see against their sovereignty.

    Kurds themselves has to understand that pickings fight with Turks will not benefits any of their long term goal on getting their own Homeland.
    Fighting with Iraqi and Syrian Arabs already too much, but now seems have some hope.
    Considering Iraqi and Syrian internal situation, Damascus and Baghdad seems now can 'bring' to accept on what territory their really can control.

    Turks Army is not same with any Arabs army whether it's Syrian, Iraqis or even Saudi's that continue showing poor performance in Yamen despite their expensives toys.

    Don't think anyone in 'official' international community will support Kurds if they see they are helping PKK affiliated fighters..
    Kurds should control those fighters and don't try to pick on Turks..but seems many of them also have an idea that Kurdish Homeland should also include Turkey Kurds populated area..and that's mistake in my opinion for achieving their Homeland goals.
     
  7. KiwiRob

    KiwiRob Active Member

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    So you're suggesting start small with territory taken from Iraq and Syria, consolidate then Israeli style annex the Kurdish parts of Turkey over the coming decades. I'd be ok with that.
     
  8. Ananda

    Ananda Well-Known Member

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    On contrary, I'm suggesting the Kurds to forgot their ambition to get Kurdish populated area within Turkey border. Kurds must set their priority on whether homeland or being crush.

    Kurds are not Israel, there are no strong Kurdish International lobby to support them, as Israel has strong Jewish one on their back. Also Israel did not facing strong direct neighbours like Turkey.
    As I stated before, Turkish armed forces is no match for any Arab Armed forces..in fact only Israeli Armed Forces that can match them in Middle East. At the same time Kurdish will never be in same leaugue as Israel, even if they got their homeland. So forgot that notion on taking on Turks even after somehow they are getting their homeland through parts of Iraq and Syria.

    If the Turks being assured that no Kurdish Homeland will ever challange their Sovereignty, perhaps they will be 'at least neutral' on Kurdish Homeland.

    The Kurds will get strong Arab's opposition on getting their homeland, but still some hope considering situation in Iraq and Syria. However if they also fighting The Turks..well that's not doable in my opinion.

    Trump Calls Turkey’s Syrian Offensive a ‘Bad Idea,’ but Opposes ‘Senseless Wars’

    Look at that article from NY Times, basically Trump look the other way around on Turkish operation on Syrian Kurds. US congress can condem Turks..but that's it..it's only strong word..nothing else.

    Kurdish homeland will never got strong support as Jewish Homeland that become Israel. The condition also much difference, Israel being built by mostly European Jews that are more sophisticated and more industrious then their direct Arab Neighbours. Israel also knows which neighbours need to be dealt with. That's one big factor why (in my opinion) they agree to release Golan back to Egypt, cause they know Egypt has the only effective Armed Forces in Arab World.

    Kurds need to make peace and convince the Turks that they will not going to be a threat to Turkish teritory, if their dream on homeland can ever become. Even Israel which is far more powerfull then Kurds ever be, also knows how to choose which neighbours need to be neutralised diplomatically.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019 at 10:09 AM
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  9. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    This is some background on the Kurdish issue and the Middle East problems. The Kurds have been shafted by western powers since 1920.

    Is this the end of Sykes-Picot?

    Forget Sykes-Picot. It's the Treaty of Sèvres That Explains the Modern Middle East.

    KiwiRob asks if it is fair, but this is Realpolitik and groups like the Kurds will always get shafted by the great powers because they don't have anything of value like oil, minerals etc., unless, like the Jewish people, they have an international organisation with the resources and access to lobby in very high places. No it's most definitely not fair and Trump's just another ratbag on a long list of ratbags who have sold the Kurds and others out.

    However, Trump's rash and ill advised decision will have negative ramifications for the US, further confirming to the world that the US is no longer a trustworthy ally and friend. This will be causing many US allies and friends to seriously reappraise their defence and security plans, alongside their alliance with the US.

    The Danger of Abandoning Our Partners

    Trump’s Capitulation to Erdogan Destroys U.S. Credibility
     
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  10. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    Indeed I think many nations will be examining their defence arrangements with the realization that the US cannot be counted on anymore. A pretty good reason for Japan and South Korea to get their $hit together. Unfortunately, given Canada's geography, Canada will continue to ignore defence while hiding under the US defence umbrella.
     
  11. Stampede

    Stampede Active Member

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    I think many allied countries of the US are concerned with that countries current Commander In Chief and are trying not to be themselves damage magnets to his erratic behaviour.
    I'd suggest most allies are just playing a waiting game for the next Presidential election in the hope some sanity returns to the white house.
    If he is returned to office next year, then many allies will have to have some to make some difficult choices across many levels of governance.
    For Australia having an erratic alliy out ot 2024 is most concerning.

    Regards S
     
  12. Ananda

    Ananda Well-Known Member

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    Gent's it's the Kurds. For US they are just a convenience temporary parties. Turkish is US allies. So from that perspective US's not abandoning their allies. Perhaps this is one of Trump move as compensation from that F-35 bruhaha..
     
  13. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    @Stampede ....totally agree. Even the 15 months he still has left in office (assuming he isn't removed from office) still allows for a lot more damage to be done.
     
  14. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    Under Erdogan Turkey is an allie in name only. Most of NATO wouldn't miss Erdogan's Turkey leaving by noon tomorrow accept for maybe Trump given his admiration for dictators.
     
  15. Stampede

    Stampede Active Member

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    A Kurdish home land is well over due.
    As suggested Northern Iraq and the Syrian boarder region would make sense. ( Agree Turkey will not concede and inch of territory )
    But certainly a challenge on many levels.
    Difficulty aside, now is probably as good an opportunity as at any-time in the last 90 years to get some traction with this situation.
    Would it be good for a county like Australia to be an advocate for such Kurdish Nationhood.
    Maybe geographically removed middle powers such as Australia showing leadership on such an issue may be the way forward.

    Thoughts

    Regards S
     
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  16. Ananda

    Ananda Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps from some part of US politics, however for present US administration Turkey it's still more valuable than some Kurdish factions.

    My point is, Democrats and perhaps some moderate Republican will see it as US abandoned it's Partners. However for Trump's people and perhaps most of his constituents, they are not abandoning their Allies needs. As seems they see Turkish is their allies, and not Kurds.

    It's matter of perspective, then again that's politics.
    As for Kurds, they should know better that when you're still fighting Syrian Arabs, don't add more powerful enemies by continue supporting PKK affiliated fighters.

    I do suspect that Damascus will try to get some upper hand in here by capturing some Kurdish territory, while avoiding Turkish operation
     
  17. Ananda

    Ananda Well-Known Member

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    That's the point that I make so far..The Kurds should know they have momentum in Northern Iraq and part of Syria.. considering internal situation in Iraq and Syria..

    However don't jeopardize that by also let PKK's affiliated fighters to do infiltration to Turkish territory. They should try to make peace and convince Turkey that they are going to be good neighbor and not going to make any claim on Turkish area with Kurds population.
    However so far I see the Kurds getting greedy, and that's a mistake in my opinion for their goal on Kurdish Homeland.

    They will have opposition from the Arabs, and pocking more powerful Turkey is not a 'smart' move under their present situation.
     
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  18. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    What exactly has Erdogan done for the West lately wrt Syria that makes them valuable as an ally? He has purged most of his military and is sucking up to Russia. Even Republican Senators get that. Thousands of Kurds died fighting ISIS, minimizing the need to put US boots on the ground. Even Trump's base supporters will have difficulty spinning this withdrawal in a positive light. BTW, as I understand it, this withdrawal involves a very limited number of SF troops. Their presence alone prevented Erdogan from attacking the Kurds.
     
  19. Feanor

    Feanor Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Can you elaborate on this? I see sentiment such as this expressed on DT regularly, but I feel I'm missing something. Specifically vis-a-vis NATO, what has Erdogan done to make him so worthless? He certainly has opposed US foreign policy in the Middle East, pursuing what he considers to be Turkey's interests. But is NATO simply an appendage of the US? If not, then what exactly is the issue with Erdogan and NATO specifically?

    The role Turkey has played in providing logistical support for operations in operations across the Middle East comes to mind. But what about the reverse question. What has the West done for Turkey lately?

    To me it looks like this; Turkey wants their own area of influence in northern Syria, the ability to have some independence in their choices of major arms development and procurement partners, and a positive strategic relationship with Russia. I think Erdogan sees these things as pieces of restoring Turkey to the status of a great power. Whether correctly or not is a secondary question, since it's not up to other nations or world leaders to set goals for Turkey. Are these goals incompatible with NATO? I don't think so. France and the UK are great powers (not like the US or China maybe but certainly far more so then Turkey has been up to now), and quite a few NATO states do buy weapons and equipment outside of NATO or the US, with an especially blatant example being Greece. Yet somehow these steps make him a poor ally for NATO? Now we can argue that he is taking Turkey in the direction of authoritarianism so perhaps he will run afoul of the principle that NATO members have to uphold democracy...
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019 at 2:36 PM
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  20. Ananda

    Ananda Well-Known Member

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    What has Kurdish do that make's them more valuable then Turkey ?
    Just help US in fighting ISIS hardly makes them more valuable than Turkey.

    Despite some grumbling from EU on Turkey let's some Syrian refugees to Europe, well Turkey also manage to hold close to four million of them inside Turkish territory. If they don't do it..those refugees will floaded EU's street. That alone makes many European NATO still valued Turkey.
    US fight with ISIS also supplied through Turkish territory.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not Turkish supporter, however I try to see it from neutral point of view and try to see which are more valuable to US between Turkey as their long term allies and Kurds which basically only a 'temporary' partners (at least from current US administration point of view).

    Many people in the west does not like Erdogan..heck maybe nearly half of Turkish don't like Erdogan. However it does not make Turkey less valuable as allies.. especially with current situation in Syria and Iraq. Especially compared to Kurds.

    After all this is the argument, whether US abandoned Partner (Kurds) or choose to support even covertly or by looking the other way around of an allies need (Turks).
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019 at 2:41 PM
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