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The Current Conflict In Syria

Discussion in 'Geostrategic Issues' started by kurama, Jan 12, 2018.

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  1. kurama

    kurama New Member

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    After the chemical weapon attack, the US as well as Britain want to go in and strike. Russia has repeatedly told the US to stay out of Syria. And now many people are talking about that this can spark a WWIII. How do you guys think this all goes down?
     
  2. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    A lot depends upon the heads of government of all of the involved nations. Putin has both domestic and international reasons for becoming embroiled in Syria. He's managed to save Assad and extend his influence. The US under both Obama and Trump have different reasons, mostly based around the so called War on Terror. The European nations because of security concerns. Even though all of these states are fighting an evil, Daesh - ISIS, their motivation is self interest.

    The current situation may not
    trigger World War III, because there are mechanisms in place between the US lead coalition forces and Russia to reduce and mitigate the chances of a direct confrontation between them in Syria. In my opinion the more dangerous flaspoints are in Ukraine, the Baltic states, South China Sea and North Korea.
     
  3. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    Looks like Syrian AAA has accidentally shot down a Russian IL-20 surveillance aircraft during an Israeli missile attack on Syrian targets in Latakia Province. TASS also claims that the French Frigate also launched missiles. The TASS claim has not yet been verified.

    Mod Note: I've also changed the thread title to make it more relevant.

    Edited to clarify verification.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2018
  4. Strannik

    Strannik Member

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    What was that? : "If CNN says so it must be true." sort of thinking. Well it is so unlikely as to become almost impossible. There is simpler explanation. I am sure Russia does know already who downed the IL. But they going to weight the response very carefully, before saying it out loud.
     
  5. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    The "If CNN says so it must be true." thinking is incorrect. The BBC is a reputable source. If it had been a CNN story I would probably agree because I think that US news media are not as good as the BBC or old school UK main stream media. Since Murdoch has taken over a lot of Australian, NZ, UK and US media the reporting quality has decidedly become considerable worse and dumbed down. I have always thought that US news media was dumbed down compared to AU, CAN, NZ and UK news media. Unfortunately that later news media has been quick in lowering its standards to that of the former.
     
  6. King Wally

    King Wally Member

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    Seems pretty bold of Israel to be hitting targets as far away as the Latakia region. I thought they would contain themselves mainly to cleaning up threats closer to their border?

    I guess being a coastal area it's easy to swing in across the Mediterranean and just do it without overflying anything too dangerous.
     
  7. gazzzwp

    gazzzwp Member

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    I guess the IAF are sending a signal to Iran that none of their forces are out of reach or air strikes.

    Russia now officially blaming Israel and claiming the right to retaliate. Dangerous events may be afoot. Is the Iron Dome about to be put to the test in earnest? How will Russia proceed?

    ‘You are to blame for downing of Il-20 and death of its crew,’ Russia tells Israel
     
  8. Todjaeger

    Todjaeger Potstirrer

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    Well, unless an organization like Reuters is lying when they state that;

    Then it would seem that the "almost impossible" as you put it is what actually happened.

    At this point, what I consider suspect is a post response which provides no factual support while attempting to cast doubt on another member (and a member of the Mod team no less) while denigrating an information source that was not even the one used.

    In my experience, such behavior is to be expected from people who either only listen to "their" propaganda, or the people who are involved in actively spreading it.
     
  9. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    RT is not really a reputable source because it is a Kremlin mouthpiece, but on this occasion it will more than suffice. Bloomberg also have a story regarding Russian reaction. I don't think Russia will retaliate militarily, because any attack by Russia on Israel will invite immediate retaliation by the US. Putin will beat his chest and mouth off for a few days but then hopefully things will quieten down. Syria and Iran may attempt retaliation for the attack itself, but there will be little guarantee of mission success and will just invite more Israeli attacks, which Syria has trouble defending itself from.
    Not really, just good mission planning and well trained aircrew. They did go into Iraq during the 1980's to knock out Sadam's nuclear weapons program and I wouldn't be surprised if they have been into Iran. They certainly have the capabilities and expertise to do that.

    Russia and Turkey have agreed to a DMZ in Syria's Idlib between the rebels and the Syrian Govt Forces. Russian and Turkish forces will patrol the borders of the DMZ. All radical fighters and all heavy weapons will be removed from the zone. Well if it works, good but as they say, the proof of the pudding is in the eating

    Idlib assault on hold as Russia, Turkey agree on buffer zone
     
  10. Strannik

    Strannik Member

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    This time around Reuters actually reported Russian official statement, I have no problem with this, almost. Almost because Russian side does directly blame Israel for downing the plane, not indirectly.
    And yes, almost impossible, did happen, as Israeli air force committed act of war against Russia by launching the attack while in the shadow of the IL, giving less then 60 seconds warning to Russian base. Which left no time to divert the plane to safety.

    Regarding the following sentence: " In my experience, such behavior is to be expected from people who either only listen to "their" propaganda, or the people who are involved in actively spreading it."
    Anyone can see, that I hardly actively spreading "propaganda". The whole 55 messages in 4 years, that is.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2018
  11. Todjaeger

    Todjaeger Potstirrer

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    Russia may very well blame Israel for the IL-20 being shot down by a Syrian GBAD system, but the fact remains that it was a Syrian crew who fired the weapons that struck a Russian aircraft. Unless of course Russia has started to claim that it was an Israeli who fired the Syrian weapon at the Russian aircraft that is...

    To claim it was an "act of war" committed by Israel upon Russia, is not in line with any definition of an act of war I have come across and IMO would be too great a stretch to serve as a casus belli. Had it been an Israeli aircraft which fired upon the Russian aircraft, in either Syrian or international airspace, that would serve as a casus belli. However, if the Syrian GBAD had better ROE and/or IFF systems, they could have realized that an aircraft belonging to their Russian allies was in the area and taken other actions which would have led to an outcome other than the Russian aircraft and crew being lost.

    Had Syria established a no-engagement zone within nn distance of Russian aircraft, the Syrian GBAD could have waited until the Israeli aircraft were greater than nn distance from the IL-20 and attempted to engage then, and the Russian aircraft and crew would most likely have been fine. At some point, the Israeli aircraft would have had to break away from the IL-20 in order to return to Israel. As for Israel warning the Russian aircraft, unless there is an agreement between Russia and Israel over how their respective armed forces will interact in/around Syria and the Mideast, there would be no reason for Israel to give Russia (and by extension Syria) any tactically useful advanced warning. In fact, barring a requirement to provide advanced warning to Russia, there would be plenty of reasons for Israel not to do so.
     
  12. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    I would be very careful making that allegation because we have no definitive evidence upon which to base any conclusion, except media reports. By the way, such a ruse is lawful under the rules of war, whether we like it or not.

    Based upon media reports, is my belief that the Il-20 was an unfortunate victim of collateral damage. Maybe the Syrian air defences should have positively verified their target before launching the SAM. We could argue until the cows come home who was right, who was wrong and what should have been done an what wasn't done. However we were not there when this incident happened so WE DO NOT KNOW THE ACTUAL EVENTS AND THE ORDER IN WHICH THEY OCCURRED.
     
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  13. Strannik

    Strannik Member

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    True, but Russia is not at war with Israel, far from it. Relations were not without wrinkles but still, rather cordial.

    Sure, cannot agree more.

    Russia most likely will not retaliate military, what for? Diplomacy probably could exploit the incident with greater yield. As for Putin reaction, we already know it. It was very calm and calculated. Basically he suggested not to compare the incident with downing SU24 by Turkey, and that it could be a chain of tragic coincidences, but must be further investigated, before the appropriate response can be developed. Thought, it is as far from 'chest and mouth beating off' as humanly possible.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2018
  14. Feanor

    Feanor Super Moderator Staff Member

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    This entire conversation strikes me as very odd. Why would Russia retaliate at all? Russia and Israel have a lot of backroom deals. I strongly suspect that the Israelis are kicking themselves over this incident, and hoping it doesn't jeopardize all the things they've gotten from Russia (things like not supplying the Syrians with advanced air defense systems, or things like keeping the Iranians and their proxies away from the Syrian-Israeli border). Israel has no reason to want something like this to happen, and Russia has no desire to sour their valuable relationship with Israel (for example supplying Russia with UAVs and technology, not withstanding their use in Ukraine). In fact, Putin has already made his statement:



    "Когда гибнут люди особенно при таких трагических обстоятельствах, это всегда беда. Для нас всех, для страны, для близких наших погибших товарищей. И я приношу соболезнования близким погибших. Что касается сравнения с с нашим самолетом, сбитым турецким истребителем, это все-таки другая ситуация. Тогда турецкий истребитель сознательно сбил наш самолет. Тут это скорее похоже на цепь трагических случайностей.Мы безусловно должны во всем разобраться. Наше отношение изложено в заявлении министерства обороны, которое со мной полностью согласовано. Что касается ответных действий, то они будут направлены в первую очередь на дополнительное обеспечение наших военнослужащих и объектов в Сирии. Это будут такие шаги, которые заметят все."

    To translate:

    "When people die, especially in such tragic circumstances, it's always unfortunate. For all us, for the country, for the relatives of our dead comrades. And I send my condolences to the relatives of the deceased. As for comparisons of our aircraft, downed by a Turkish fighters jet, this is a different situation. Then a Turkish fighter jet intentionally shot down our aircraft. Here is looks more like a chain of tragic coincidences. We of course must investigate all of this. Our reaction was covered by the Ministry of Defense statement, which is fully supported by me. As for actions in response, they will be aimed primarily at the support of our service members and facilities in Syria. These will be steps that everyone will see."

    As for Russian Min-Def, and the 60 seconds of notice, this is a statement directed at the Israelis. I don't think Russia expects all parties to notify them of strikes in advance. Rather, due to the nature of their relations with Israel, they expected better from the Israelis specifically.
     
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  15. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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  16. Sandhi Yudha

    Sandhi Yudha Member

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    What in heavens sake are Isrealian F-16s doing so far away from home? They always scream about "invasions" and "act of war" if foreign UAV enters Golan area, but they just dropping bombs on other countries dozens kilometers far away from their own borders.

    Anyway, i also expect the Russians try to solve this terrible incident diplomatically. For the reasons Feanor already told, but military actions can cause full scale war, which costs a tremendous amount of money, and the war in Syria and Vostok 2018 are already quite expansive...
     
  17. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    Standard Operating Procedures for Israel. I think Israel and Syria are technically still at war, because no peace treaty has ever been signed between them.
     
  18. Feanor

    Feanor Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Does that really make it any better? Israeli behavior in the region is despicable. I understand that much of their policy is driven by survival. But the days when they were on the brink of extinction are over. They're a nuclear power, they have one of the most capable fighting forces on the planet, and their strongest neighbors are no longer seeking their destruction. Even Hezbollah is mostly on the defensive these days, their foray into a Syria a desperate move to save Assad. Their closest credible opponent is two countries away, with a laughably weak airforce and a primitive ballistic missile capability. They have the support of the US, they flirt with Russia, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're quietly putting out feelers to the Chinese. Their political prostitution is unmatched as far as I can tell, and they're willingness to use force makes Russian behavior in Ukraine look quite pleasant by comparison. Truth is, Israel has little to no respect for international law, and is willing to commit acts of aggression against any of its neighbors, if it becomes in their interest to do so, and they can get away with it. It's really not surprising they get along so easily with Putin. They speak the same language. Hell, if anything Putin is more subtle about. Of course, he has to be. He doesn't have the US backing him.
     
  19. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    An interview with an Iranian Sunni jihadist fighting against the Assad govt in Syria and Daesh. An interesting and informative read once you get your head around the language.

    Interview with an Iranian fighter in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham | FDD's Long War Journal

    Russia has given Israel notice that it will increase protection for Russian personnel in Syria. I would not be surprised to see Russian air defences upgraded and ROE altered. I would also not be surprised to see Russia sell Syria the S300 SAM system, which will really get Israeli knickers in a twist.

    Russia tells Israel it will take all steps to protect its personnel in Syria: ministry | Reuters

    Syrian Govt and rebel response to the Russian - Turkish DMZ agreement. Good to see that it is positive.

    Syria’s government and opposition welcome Idlib demilitarized zone deal struck by Turkey and Russia

    The Russians and Syrians threatened to undertake operations inside a deconfliction zone until USMC ground forces inside Syria conducted a live fire demonstration. Apparently the Russians and Syrians haven't acted on these threats since said demonstration.

    The Russian military has backed down after the US Marine Corps called their bluff in Syria
     
  20. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    I agree that there is most definitely a certain amount of arrogance there and Israel has complied with few, if any, of the UN resolutions that have been made about their conduct. The good will I had towards them was lost years ago when Sharon got into Cabinet and, IMO, from then on it looked like to me Israel had all the appearances of an apartheid state. I just hope and pray that I am wrong. Whilst many countries (including my own) commit actions that are immoral and reprehensible, I had always thought that, considering the recent history of the Jewish people in the 19th and 20th Century, they would be very sensitive to the plight and anger of downtrodden peoples.
     
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