The Current Conflict In Syria

[StingrayOZ]

Not sure if this is the right thread.. But relevant.

With Turkey’s invasion of Syria, concerns mount over nukes at Incirlik
Turkey holding 50 US nuclear bombs ‘hostage’
Trump Followed His Gut on Syria. Calamity Came Fast.

There is now discussion about moving the dual key NATO nuclear shared weapons out of Turkey.

And just weeks ago, Mr Erdogan said he would “not accept” moves to prevent Turkey from gaining the technology necessary to refine uranium into weapons-grade plutonium.

“Some countries have missiles with nuclear warheads, not one or two. “There is no developed nation in the world that doesn’t have them,” Mr Erdogan falsely asserted.

The New York Times today quotes one unnamed US official as saying these nuclear weapons were now essentially “Erdogan’s hostages”.

“To fly them out of Incirlik would be to mark the defacto end of the Turkish-American alliance. To keep them there, though, is to perpetuate a nuclear vulnerability that should have been eliminated years ago,” national security correspondent David Sanger writes.

So on top of this we now have issues regarding nuclear proliferation, security of US nuclear weapons, the NATO nuclear sharing arrangement etc. Turkeys outright disregard for the US on a number of issues has surely caused a change in the relationship. How can you have a shared nuclear arrangement with a country you are threatening to destroy their economy and possibly be involved with a cold or hot war with.

The easiest way is to completely remove all US weapons from the NATO sharing agreement. Turkey seems intent to move forward with its aims, and with Israel and Iran (and Saudis?) making all sorts of nuclear capabilities, and withdrawal of the US nuclear umbrella is likely to have significant consequences. Not just for the Middle East or Europe, but Asia too.

 

[Feanor]

Some more information.

Russian MinDef says they have full control over Manbij and "nearby population centers". What this means in practice is unclear, especially considering the near-symbolic presence of actual Russian troops.

В Минобороны России сообщили, что сирийская армия установила полный контроль над Манбиджем

A column of Syrian troops is headed for Kobani.

Wall

Two Turkish soldiers were killed in the fighting with the Kurds, with 8 more wounded.

Wall

 

[ngatimozart]

Erdogan has stated that he will not accept a cease fire. Turkey's President Erdogan: 'We will never declare a ceasefire' - CNN

Some in the US are concerned that US SOF secrets will fall into the hands of the Russians, Syrians and others. It's to be expected. Turkey's President Erdogan: 'We will never declare a ceasefire' - CNN

Turkey has said that it will retaliate against US sanctions over Syrian attack. Turkey says it will retaliate against U.S. sanctions over Syria offensive

Putin has had state visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE in last couple of days. The Saudis have said that "the days of a single strategic partner for the kingdom have gone". Nature abhors a vacuum. Putin is on a victory lap of the Middle East - CNN

 

[Firn]

I was recently thinking about a not so much-discussed aspect of the Turkish invasion. We know well that the previous operations on Syrian soil much of the motorized infantry and their technicals were to a large degree Islamist group composed mostly of Sunni Arabs which where at least partly mobilized from Idlib province. Unsurprisingly there was plenty of evidence of violence including rape, torture and death against suspected or casual civilians living in Afrin and other area. Of course other participants of this cruel civil war have also committed war-crimes like the Russian airforce, which has made the precision bombing of marked and known hospitals a routine part of their war strategy. Medical supplies are also presented as war trophies in the ANNA propaganda videos.

Nor should we forget the torture camps of Assad or his bombing or shelling of civilian targets by the normal HE stuff or the chemical means. It is a bitter conflict in which brutality has been normalized by many individuals and groups. So nobody which followed it to some degree should have been surprised by the execution of captured and bound fighters and not even by the kidnapping and killing of a female politician. However with the gaze of the media fixed on the operation and combined with the overall feeling of presidential betrayal and the mass fleeing they certainly had a very negative impact on it's reputation.



So why have the Turks been unable to come up with better non-Turkish troops? There are 3+million mostly Sunni Syrian Arabs refugees inside Turkey, among them certainly hundreds of thousends of men of military age. Plenty of them have no jobs and likely eager to earn a living for their families and relatives. With all the noise about Turkish vital interests and possible invasion there was plenty of time to select, arm and train tens of thousends for said operations. Plenty of soldiers in WWII had far fewer potential training weeks then could have been fairly easily achieved. Basic infantry stuff would have been mostly adequate and kept them reliant, if one wished so, on Turkish armor, air support, firepower, intelligence and logistics. For example 120mm mortars as their heaviest level of organic indirect capability, some ATGMs mostly for defence against armor, commercial drones and the usual assortment of pick-ups some technicals and some trucks. Leadership would have been problematic but capable candidates supported from the platoon level up by Turkish counterparts. Basically small battalions or initially companies with some planning and uptraining for the creation of battalions.



It seems just stupid that such an openly Turkish operations was so openly conducted at least partly with notorious Islamist groups. Perhaps because they got away with it in Afrin they thought they could get too here. So far not without a enormous amount of negative publicity...

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

Syrian forces continue to advance, rather rapidly, towards the Turkish lines. So far I haven't seen reports of clashes. It appears that most of the Kurdish-held territory will end up in government hands. With Qamishli and Kobani likely to be government hands, it looks like Turks will get a 30 km deep pocket in the central part of northern Syria. Small scale fighting continues between the Kurds and Turks, even in Ayn-Rays, which the Turks previously appeared to have complete control over. It is now reported that there are 200-250 thousand refugees from this fighting.

Коротко по Сирии. 16.10.2019
Операция "Peace Spring". День 7

It appears that reports of the US withdrawing its nuclear weapons from Turkey were premature.

Перемещение ядерного оружия с авиабазы Инджирлик

The US is burning equipment that it can't take away.

Перед уходом сжечь

 

[Firn]

As a logically consequence of the likely Turkish failure to select, arm and train larger numbers of integral Syrian troops they might:

1) Actually not have all too many trained Syrian fighters at their disposals, even if FSA groups were filled up with some refugee manpower

2) Weakened the military manpower in the Idlib and Afrin areas, enabling actually regime offensives there or a similar shift

3) Have not too close a grip on the various groups. This has proven to be heavy publicity hit but might come somewhat useful in the denial bit.

All this could mean that if there is a longer conflict Turkish regulars might be forced increasingly into the fray. Once again it is important that the Turkish side had almost all the advantages an attacker could dream on their side. For those almost ideal conditions their success is actually surprisingly small. The control of a part of the M4 is important but while there have been SDF casualities the lack of smart, quick and bold deep strikes have facilitated organized retreats, delaying actions or even counter-attacks.

Assad seems to ask for SDF submission with almost humiliation but he might be advised to be careful not to squeeze too hard. Much political could depend on the operational successes of the next days and how much the Turkish army itself pushes...

 

[Firn]

Just to add to this train of thought. There are strong indications that even the ISIL profited from Turkish infrastructure like hospitals, here we have just one report:

We ask if this was a funding relationship. “There was no changing money between us,” Abu Mansour answers, and agrees it was a coordinating function—diplomacy where “both sides benefit.” The benefit to Turkey, according to Abu Mansour, was that “ We are in the border area and Turkey wants to control its borders—to control Northern Syria. Actually they had ambitions not only for controlling the Kurds. They wanted all the north, from Kessab (the most northern point of Syria) to Mosul.”

...

Abu Mansour continues, “Since they are a NATO state they cannot make NATO angry against them. So, they cannot deal directly with the situation, but they want to destroy the Kurdish ummah, so they deal with the situation [via ISIS] and get benefits from the Islamic State.”

On the side of ISIS, he explains, “It’s a big benefit to Dawlah, as they could protect our back. Approximately 300 km of our border is with them. Turkey is considered a road for us for medications, food—so many things enter in the name of aid. The gates were open.”

Nota bene that one of the first things Turkey did after the SDF conquered the ISIL areas bordering it was erecting a concrete barrier along them. The gates were not open to all. The interview is quite interesting but of course should not be take alone at face value...

There can be hardly any doubt that Turkey still functions in similar ways to various groups in Idlib and the direct support was and is of course absolutely open from Afrin. The last weeks are just the continuation of their strategy by the same means in different areas...

So while the Turkish military? intelligence facilitated the work of a melange of militias it seems that it didn't create a large number of new units which could have been rotated into Afrin area or others and slowly adapted to a increasing combat load and different scenarios against different opponents. Possibly it was seen as too brazen and risky but I don't think that there would have been much pushback in the current political circumstances...

 

[Feanor]

Assad seems to ask for SDF submission with almost humiliation but he might be advised to be careful not to squeeze too hard. Much political could depend on the operational successes of the next days and how much the Turkish army itself pushes...

All of these comments are late. The SDF and the Syrian Government already have their deal, whatever it might be. Whatever level of humiliation was agreed upon, is already in place. And the distance the Turks will get to push to is most likely already established. Which is a big part of why they're not diving deep into Syrian territory, and why Turkey and Russia are having regular meetings at the top level to make sure this goes smoothly. The only real fighting is between the Kurds and the Turks, and the Kurds are mostly just skirmishing and retreating.

Look at the maps. Damn-near symbolic quantities of SAA troops with a token Russian presence are "controlling" giant swathes of territory. A huge Turkish and proxy invasion force is milling about in a geographically small area. This isn't a contest of military force, it's a division of occupation zones. The nice occupation zone being under the Syrian government (it would be funny if it wasn't terrifying for anyone caught up in this area), and the not-so-nice one being under Turkish proxies.

There might be friction later, depending on how thoroughly the Kurds and Damascus drew up their deal. There is bound to be friction between the Turkish proxies and the SAA forces. But this isn't a race for how much territory can be taken.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

The SAA has entered Raqqa and begun setting up checkpoints.

Сирийские войска вошли в Ракку

Footage of a firefight between the Kurds and Turks near Ayn-Issa.

Бой протурецких отрядов и курдов в пригороде Айн-Исса

It appears that Hevrin Khalaf, a Kurdish politician, from the Syrian Future party was murdered, possibly by Turkish proxies on the M-4 highway. Unconfirmed reports of killings have been cropping up, and it seems likely this is one of them. It appears she was beaten and tortured, before being shot repeatedly.

Warning, graphic images in the second link.

Как убили Хефрин Халаф
فيصل ابراهيم الشمري on Twitter

EDIT: Syrian government forces have entered Kobani.

Сирийская армия вошла в Кобани

 

[Firn]

I have looked rather carefully at the maps, here is a rough overview. Of course things will have changed in the meantime, for example in Raqqa as you mentioned.

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ma2NBY9DCoE/XadhzonxJwI/AAAAAAAAKmg/mvoWu5_tyM0vEOxR2FAH9qKhVXJmSGurACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/ISW+Map+-+Situation+in+Northeast+Syria+-+October+16+2019.jpg

If there is something we have learned in the last years or from history there is almost never something final. Of course Assad is a Butcher and was the most important fool in this sad journey which turned the fairly strong and economically sound country he controlled into rubble so we don't know how smartly he will act. Let us be honest, he survived through the goodwill and with heavy help of his allies and hardly through his own intelligent acts.

So we will see what the agreement says and how it turns out. For now the SDF controls almost all the swaths of lands east of the Euphrat with the Turkish-led forces having made surprisingly slow progress even before words of the treaty got out. A long concentrated attacking force with arguably operational but at the very least tactical surprise, advancing over wide open, dry and flat terrain with few east-west obstacles it was able to study for years, supported by armor and heavy artillery with air supremacy against an opponent which it could observe also for years and lacking almost any heavy weapons, should do far more far quicker and inflict far more causalities. Then again it sadly seems that they are indeed busy inflicting causalities by executing captured fighters and civilians. I avoid looking at graphic images if possible and take your word. I expected not much less after hearing that a prominent female politician was ambushed by that lot.

Assad can have no interest to lose a large area to Turkish control which could became a third Idlib, full of radicalized anti-regime forces and useful for Erdogan as a constant thorn in his side. On the other hand the Kurds are not Sunni Arabs and are a potential counterweight to the majority. His own power base is narrow and fragile. In any case the basic fact that a considerable amount of the Islamist manpower of the offensive comes from the western areas means that the available non-Turkish pool is smaller then I initially thought. Much depends on the degree to which Turkish regulars will have to shoulder the fight.

 

[Feanor]

So we will see what the agreement says and how it turns out. For now the SDF controls almost all the swaths of lands east of the Euphrat with the Turkish-led forces having made surprisingly slow progress even before words of the treaty got out. A long concentrated attacking force with arguably operational but at the very least tactical surprise, advancing over wide open, dry and flat terrain with few east-west obstacles it was able to study for years, supported by armor and heavy artillery with air supremacy against an opponent which it could observe also for years and lacking almost any heavy weapons, should do far more far quicker and inflict far more causalities.

It's highly likely that Turkey had a final line of advance from the get-go, and given the nature of Russo-Turkish relations in Syria and previous experiences in similar situations, it would be strange to assume otherwise.

Then again it sadly seems that they are indeed busy inflicting causalities by executing captured fighters and civilians. I avoid looking at graphic images if possible and take your word. I expected not much less after hearing that a prominent female politician was ambushed by that lot.

The Turkish proxies are not exactly "good people". At this point I would suggest that both the rebels in Idlib, and the Turkish proxies fighting against the Kurds, are basically a collection of extremists, thugs, and mercenaries.

Assad can have no interest to lose a large area to Turkish control which could became a third Idlib, full of radicalized anti-regime forces and useful for Erdogan as a constant thorn in his side. On the other hand the Kurds are not Sunni Arabs and are a potential counterweight to the majority. His own power base is narrow and fragile. In any case the basic fact that a considerable amount of the Islamist manpower of the offensive comes from the western areas means that the available non-Turkish pool is smaller then I initially thought. Much depends on the degree to which Turkish regulars will have to shoulder the fight.

I think that for Russia and Assad this is actually preferable to letting a US-backed Kurdistan become a de-facto state. Idlib is an unstable mess, and the Turks have agreed, repeatedly, that in principle they are willing to return the territory to Syria. I personally suspect that the Turks may wish to retain permanent presence, but their hold will be unsupported internationally, and be far more tenuous. They might try to use this as an opportunity to repatriate many of the refugees, displacing local Kurds, creating an Arab buffer zone, and cutting the ability of the PKK to use Syria as a rear support.

And remember, from what we can tell, most of the SDF territory will go to the Syrian government, with only a small border zone in Turkey's hands.

EDIT: There's a reason I asked you to look at the map. Keep in mind a large and well supported Turkish force, milling about, and wasting time on killing civilians. A collection of tiny Syrian and even tinier Russian detachments running around and raising a flags over giant stretches of territory. Again, this does not look, in any way, like a race for territory. Compare the pace of the Turkish advance in Afrin against stiff resistance, with their current moves against barely any.

 

[Ananda]

They might try to use this as an opportunity to repatriate many of the refugees, displacing local Kurds, creating an Arab buffer zone, and cutting the ability of the PKK to use Syria as a rear support.

@Feanor I think you are spot on this whole Turkish incursion thing..I do see this is the end game on what Turkey's want.
A Buffer zone dominated by Sunni Arab between their Kurds Populated area and Syrian Kurds.

They don't care whose Arab going to be there..whether it's militants, mercenaries or some thugs..as long as not Kurds. Seems for Turkey anyone is better as neighbor then Kurds.

 

[ngatimozart]

The US has used two F-15E in an airstrike to destroy weapons and munitions, it left behind at a military compound located at the Lafarge Cement Factory, which is located between Kobanî and Ain Issa in Syria. The airstrike was apparently conducted when no other forces were in the area to ensure that the US was not perceived to be attacking anyone.

US conducts airstrike on weapons storage site as troops pull out of Syria

 

[Feanor]

The US has used two F-15E in an airstrike to destroy weapons and munitions, it left behind at a military compound located at the Lafarge Cement Factory, which is located between Kobanî and Ain Issa in Syria. The airstrike was apparently conducted when no other forces were in the area to ensure that the US was not perceived to be attacking anyone.

US conducts airstrike on weapons storage site as troops pull out of Syria

Weren't there allegations that the factory continued to operate under ISIS rule, with the company running it even bribing ISIS to stay open?

 

[John Fedup]

Weren't there allegations that the factory continued to operate under ISIS rule, with the company running it even bribing ISIS to stay open?

Yes, I believe the French government launched an investigation into this based on information provided by a journalist a couple of years ago. Not aware of what the outcome was.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

A Turkish Leo-2 was destroyed by an ATGM near Tell Abyad.

Уничтожения "Леопарда"

Some T-62Ms have been seen flying the "Serbian" flag. It's likely that this is just an upside down Russian flag.

Сербы наступают на Ракку

 

[Firn]

There's a reason I asked you to look at the map. Keep in mind a large and well supported Turkish force, milling about, and wasting time on killing civilians. A collection of tiny Syrian and even tinier Russian detachments running around and raising a flags over giant stretches of territory. Again, this does not look, in any way, like a race for territory. Compare the pace of the Turkish advance in Afrin against stiff resistance, with their current moves against barely any.

I looked, as I usually do, on quite a few maps with different properties before writing something about an operation. The incursions were, considering the circumstances I listed, slow even before the last days. Little effort to thrust east and west along the M4 even if we take the M4 as some sort of phase line. A lack of military quality might also explain how the incursions are going, as witnessed in the inability to capture or at least encircle Ras al-Alyn/ Serêkaniyê in the first days. It is not all just about political guiderails and for the time being in those vast territories there are still combat formations of the SDF, not just a couple of Russians and a smattering of SyAA personnel...

We have to be careful not to try to fit events into our view into an understanding between two parties, Russian and Turkey of we know at best little without being aware of our speculation. It is a valuable approach, a working hypothesis but it should treat it as such. We heard more about the supposed treaty between the Assad regime and the SDF leadership but it is key to keep in mind that there are many interests and moving parts beside Russia and Turkey. Things are seldom final.

Sadly the repeated captures of Daesh cells show just that. With reports of fleeing prisoners the risk of terror is doubtlessly increasing. Calibre Obscura covered some months ago part of of what was hidden...

 

[Firn]

It is hard to imagine that some guy in a white house actually looked at a map of the Middle East and understood what it meant and didn't listen to perfectly capable persons around him. Or perhaps it is the art of the deal to give everything away first, show you cards, try to bluff and then double down when the other guy knows that you will do nothing. An US officialnoted

“This is what Turkey wanted and what POTUS green lighted. I do think one reason Turkey agreed to it is because of the Kurds have put up more of a resistance and they could not advance south any further as a result. If we don’t impose sanctions then Turkey wins big time."

We will see what the Congress and the Senate will do, but it is really amazing what a single person can do. Then again much in his history showed that doing business with him was likely to end in all sorts of losses. Regime leaders of course excluded as long buddy Netanyahu had some grudge against him.


Source: Hassan Hassan on Twitter

Turkey got “exactly what they wanted” out of the meeting with Vice President Mike Pence, a senior Turkish official told CNN today.

I don't think it the SDF will agree to anything in this full shopping list of Turkish demands apart from a temporary truce to get some civilians and fighters out of encircled positions. We will see how the sides use it militarily*.

Having seen much in terms of diplomacy this was a dog and pony show at it's finest for the largely unconvinced public at home and not something about the interests of the United States of America. Not that would be something new as we have seen in Ukraine.

Funny how the they talk about the "Turkish Forces" after all that farce about the Syrian National Army. Of course the US president has decided for the time being to neuter US influence in the regions and not even to any kind of small economic harm. This actually was, as the US and Turkish officals pointed out a big win in which Erdogan got it all and even lowered his economic risk. Still they have to take it and so far the Turkish forces didn't exactly excel.

The Syrian regime might also become a bit worried that the US just "allows" the Turks to primarily enforce a 32km deep safe zone. For how long? A year, a decade, more?

Edit: *Seems like the Turkish forces are assaulting Ras al-Alyn/ Serêkaniyê with heavy weapons, so it is possibly 2400 or 0600 or perhaps not at all, those little details...

Edited by Moderator to insert image due to link not working - DT software problems.
Ngatimozart

 

[John Fedup]

Can hardly wait to see what he gives Kim. Time for Republicans to grow a pair and think of their country first. Trump is too unstable and stupid to be POTUS, he has a cabinet mostly composed of yes men who aren't even confirmed, and then there is his CF performance wrt Iran.

 

[Firn]

Some perspective from two years ago explains why there was the widely reported fell of 'betrayal' and even 'shame' among the SF in Syria.

“It is a dream SF mission,” a second U.S. special operations forces commander in Syria said. He was referring to the Army’s Special Forces, the Green Berets who have trained foreign fighters for decades. “It is a textbook mission for special operations.” Why? Because, they say, of the forces they are backing, these are in the fight. Reliable. “They are more like us; they are just aggressive,” this commander said of the SDF and its Kurdish contingent, the YPG, to me. “A stable group of pragmatic people.” And in the case of the Kurds, pragmatic people who see this conflict as an opportunity to govern themselves. “They want to win,” says the second commander. “You don’t spend your time pushing them into the fight — they want to go into the fight.”

Such positive appraisals about the fighting ability of the SDF are not limited to this article. Facing a vast superiority of firepower, armor and an unhindered modern airforce is of course something completely different from operating with SF support and some of the greatest strengths of modern military might against an increasingly isolated and de-powered enemy. But the inability of the Turkish forces to succeed quickly in Ras al-Alyn/ Serêkaniyê with basically all the advantages at their side is certainly not only due some incompetence. In war the other side has also a say.

One has of course keep in mind that Turkey did not built up a new model Syrian army with the SNF but supported and augmented a motley mix of groups which fought the regime. Due to various reasons like preferred weapon support and the often observed tendency of radicalization in civil wars the Islamist elements grew stronger compared to moderate ones. Indeed the US mostly failed, as so often, to create capable combat units on its own. The 500 million $ for 4 people under the former administration became almost a meme. So the Turkish decision to focus on building on what was available has merits. However those groups did not perform particularly well before and some of what we have seen in the last days seem to confirm it.

“Folks on the ground here are focused on effectiveness and securing liberated territory from Daesh and far less concerned about what the man on the left or right’s ethnicity is,” says the special operations train-and-assist mission leader. “They often, in the meetings I see, chuckle a little bit when folks ask them, ‘What percentage of you are Arab and Kurdish?’ They don’t understand the significance of the question because for them they are a little bit all in this together. They are in a fight to secure liberated territory and keep it liberated from ISIS.”

...

“I was in Baghdad when it was liberated, I was in Afghanistan on the invasion,” the commander said. “When I look at the trends, I don’t see signs of fracture and we are watching for it very closely. And we don’t see it. Because when the SDF liberates towns, they really are serious about deferring to local councils once they are established and it is not just lip service.”

Of course this common cause might be no longer that strong even if ISIS remains a threat. It is to be seen if the Turkish invasion will create similar feelings. The widespread reporting of Turkish atrocities* and Erdogans threats could reinforce this. The Turkish question was already raised in the very same article:

“We have seen this movie many times,” Jeffery told Defense One in an email. “I’m actually in favor of moving heaven and earth to keep supporting (the Kurds) but that means, one, knowing why in larger scheme of things and, two, bringing Turks on board.” That latter part, hearing Turkey’s concerns and bringing them on board, he says, is absolutely essential.

To finish this train of thought it was the SF-aided military and political success of the SDF and it's political organisations which fueled the Turkish fears and let to the decision to invade.

P.S: The Assad regime has much to prove in terms of political and economic policies and is highly fractured from a military point of view with much of it's manpower in the LDF, with Russian-organized units like the 5th corps doing most of the offensive operations. This puts of course limits on it's ability to influence the military part of the current events...

*Nothing new in this war, but not exactly a fresh spring for peace either...