South China Sea thoughts?

Ananda

The Bunker Group

I don't know whether to symphetises or laughing on this matter. With so much kissing Xi's b***m that Duterte already done, and Pinoy Dignity still being treated like this.

Now his foreign minister are talking that this kind of action from China that can bring US defense agreement to be call? Isn't Duterte himself that talking and want to kick the agreement away in the first place ?

If Pinoy still elected his 'allies' in next election, then I don't know whether the Pinoy still concerned on getting an administration that serious in keeping their dignity in the first place.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

I don't know whether to symphetises or laughing on this matter. With so much kissing Xi's b***m that Duterte already done, and Pinoy Dignity still being treated like this.

Now his foreign minister are talking that this kind of action from China that can bring US defense agreement to be call? Isn't Duterte himself that talking and want to kick the agreement away in the first place ?

If Pinoy still elected his 'allies' in next election, then I don't know whether the Pinoy still concerned on getting an administration that serious in keeping their dignity in the first place.
This is what the Philippines get after Duterte licked Xi's arse clean for many years.

This seems to be a video footage of the bullying chinese coast guard vessel. I think the Philippines should guard those supply vessels next time with their coast guard vessels.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
I think the Philippines should guard those supply vessels next time with their coast guard vessels.
If looking on some Philippines media or online forums, what you're suggesting already become hot Political debate. Right now the candidates from Duterte camp and opposition camp are engulfed in this topics, with Duterte camps on defense.

Don't want to involve much on Pinoy politics, but for me as outsiders, this's the time for Pinoys as a nation decide what they're going to move in future on the matter of their sovereignty in SCS. Whatever outside world think of Philippines, they have enough capabilities on their own to begin doing something on safe guarding their interest and dignity.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 1 of 2: Attempt at showing might is right at Ayungin Shoal

I think the Philippines should guard those supply vessels next time with their coast guard vessels.
1. This is not the first time China blocked resupply. In 2014, China blockaded the Sierra Madre for weeks, forcing the Philippines to resupply by air and eventually run the blockade — with the US just watching without intervention — which is a correct position to take.

2. Not matter how many vessels the Pinoys send, the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) can send more, if they wanted to. The CCG are just reminding the Pinoys, on who is boss.
(a) In fact, on 16 Nov 2021, the Pinoys were outnumbered 3:2, where three (3) Chinese vessels blocked and water cannoned two (2) Philippine supply boats en route to transport food supplies to Philippine military personnel in Ayungin Shoal.​
(b) EU Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Nabila Massrali reiterated the EU’s “strong opposition to unilateral actions that endanger peace, security, and stability” in the disputed waters. “Furthermore, the European Union emphasizes the importance for all parties to respect freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea,” Massrali said. She urged both China and the Philippines to resolve disputes through peaceful means in accordance with international law, in particular UNCLOS.​
(c) “In this context, the EU recalls the Arbitration Award rendered under UNCLOS on 12 July 2016, which found that Second Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and continental shelf,” Massrali said.​
(d) Japanese Ambassador Kazuhiko Koshikawa said Tokyo “strongly opposes” unilateral attempt to change the current situation in the East and South China Seas and called on countries to comply with the 2016 arbitral award.​

3. The US Department of State warned Beijing that the US would intervene to defend Philippine ships in the event of an armed Chinese attack, following an incident in which Chinese naval vessels used water cannons against Philippine resupply boats in the South China Sea. Department spokesman Ned Price called the Chinese action “dangerous, provocative and unjustified.”
The US Department of State will make the appropriate noise which will be ignored by China but despite the above, I predict the CCG will back-down soon, because it’s a own goal by the Chinese leadership in the Pinoy-Chinese bilateral relationship (that can affect the local elections).
(a) On 22 Nov 2021, Lorenzana said the Philippine ships had resumed their operations: “Yes, they left Palawan for Ayungin this morning and will arrive tomorrow morning at the [BRP] Sierra Madre.”​
(b) Long criticized for his soft approach on China, even President Rodrigo Duterte issued a statement of condemnation at a summit between ASEAN and China. The Philippine leader, in prepared remarks, said: “We abhor the recent event in the Ayungin Shoal and view with grave concern other similar developments. This does not speak well of the relations between our nations and our partnership."​

4. The Pinoys have the capability to resupply, even when blocked by the CCG — they just need to get assets in place to resupply by air. What the CCG is doing is quite pointless.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 2 of 2: Attempt at showing might is right at Ayungin Shoal

Indeed. The Chinese government doesn't see subservience as something to be rewarded, but as a sign that you are weak & can be bullied more.
5. Agreed and the Indonesians seem to think that working with the Russians, at the Dec 2021 ASEAN-Russia Naval Exercise, will give them more leverage in managing disputes in the South China Sea but I think they are wrong. IMO, there is no scenario where the Russians will take ASEAN’s side in any South China Sea dispute with China over EEZ claims by Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, or the Philippines.

6. If might is right, only the powerful like the JMSDF and the USN have a say in the South China Sea disputes in the face of Chinese Coast Guard water cannons. Both countries spoke out for the Pinoys while ASEAN under Indonesian leadership was impotent.

7. Thankfully, that is not the case and international opinion matters — with a large number of countries speaking out for the Pinoys, who were previously all wet from water cannons. As US National Security Council Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific Kurt Campbell said: “The chief characteristic of US-China relations right now is competition, and we are competing across the board everywhere… We believe it’s possible to compete responsibly in a healthy way, but at the same time, the president ... recognizes that it will be important to try to establish some guardrails ... that will keep the relationship from veering into dangerous arenas of confrontation,” Campbell said at the US Institute for Peace.

8. Increasingly the norm is ship ramming or water cannons — with a Vietnamese coast guard vessel ramming an Indonesian Navy ship. Both Vietnam and China will use their maritime militia to assert their respective claims on South China Sea. Composed of purpose-built militia vessels and commercial fishing fleets, China’s maritime militia has “exploded” in tandem with its increasingly assertive claim to almost the entire sea.
 
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spoz

The Bunker Group
Nice reaction by the Indons. Interestingly, from that video, the Vietnamese ship looks to in the wrong from a COLREGs point of view; normally ships intending to do that sort of thing are very careful not to be.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Apparently Canada is in process adjusting foreign policy wrt China. Long overdue but we will have to wait and see how serious the government is.

The 'penny has dropped': Liberal government throne speech signals new direction on China, analysts say (msn.com)
Your Foreign Minister just had a visit from our Foreign Minister and I believe that the Indo-Pacific was on the agenda, but all that has been released by MFAT is about closer cooperation between the two countries on indigenous nations matters.

 
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