South China Sea thoughts?

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
@OPSSG I do see that using Navy in SCS will only bring more diplomatic points for PRC. That's why I always put importance for Bakamla development in Indonesia Navy Thread, as to play diplomatic games in SCS should be between coast guard to coast guard.

I believe this is begin to be seen also by all SCS neighboring nation, as such development of Coast Guards shown significant increase.

This incidence shown China play two faces diplomacy. They send the Defense Minister and soon after that they raise tensions again with coast guard. However in sense they can say, it is not military as we keep it on 'civilian' agency dispute.
Off course everyone knows that Chinese Coast Guard I'd a quasy military service. All coast guard are. However it's in diplomatic language to keep military from SCS dispute by PRC. Thus they don't want to be seen Internationally as the one who bring the tension toward military confrontation.

I do agree on more cooperation between Asean Navy, just like the way Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia Navies do in Malaca Strait is important. The trilateral co-op manage to say no to Indian Navy involvement in Malaca Strait security arrangements.

Still on SCS, I tend to see at this moment for Coast Guards cooperation and trust building. All the Navies should stay behind, as I see that PRC also keep PLAN farther behind from their nine-dash line.
However you can argue that in the PRC's case that in effect the PLAN is involved in ratcheting up the tension between the PRC and other SCS claimant nations, because the PRC Coast Guard and People’s Maritime Militia are part of the PLAN & PLA. That's part of the official PRC / CCP organisational structure.
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member
True @ngatimozart , it's more on the launguage of diplomacy. The Image of Chinese Coast Guard being confronted by Indonesian, Vietnamese or Malaysian Navy will be sold by PRC showing that they're showing constraints to not turn it into Military confrontation.

We know that those Chinese Coast Guard cutters are heavily armed for Coast Guard duty. Type 718, 818 cutters that I shown the picture on my previous post can take most of Philippines Navy vessels even their new Hyundai build Frigate.
Still, SCS stand off also diplomatic games, thus how PRC project themselves due matter.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Sept 2020 South China Sea updates

1. ASEAN will persistently hold onto its principled position, emphasizing self-restraints, peaceful settlement of all disputes on the basis of international law, including 1982 UNCLOS, promoting inter and intra-ASEAN dialogues, strengthening confidence building, non-militarization, and refrain from further complicating the situation." It was agreed that negotiations between ASEAN countries and China over a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea will resume no later than Nov 2020 during ASEAN virtual meeting.
2. “We called on China to refrain from unilateral actions in the South China Sea, to respect international law, and avoid escalations,” said President Charles Michel after the EU-China leaders' meeting via video conference. Charles Michel is a Belgian politician serving as President of the European Council since 2019. He previously served as Prime Minister of Belgium between 2014 and 2019.

3. During a 2018 visit to the region, France’s Macron called for new strategic alliances including a Franco-Australian-India axis to preserve a free and open order in the Indo-Pacific.

4. Latest joint note verbale submitted by France to the UN in response to Beijing’s South China Sea claims, on behalf of Germany, France and U.K.

5. "China proposed the creation of a Spratly Resource Management Authority (SRMA) – with membership not just from claimant states to the dispute, namely Brunei, China, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, but also Indonesia." I note that to create a joint development in a disputed area, China is required to have a legitimate claim under UNCLOS. Cooperating with China would be tantamount to validating its South China Sea claims, a move that would be completely contrary to Indonesia’s interests.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
I do agree on more cooperation between Asean Navy, just like the way Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia Navies do in Malaca Strait is important. The trilateral co-op manage to say no to Indian Navy involvement in Malaca Strait security arrangements.

Still on SCS, I tend to see at this moment for Coast Guards cooperation and trust building. All the Navies should stay behind, as I see that PRC also keep PLAN farther behind from their nine-dash line.
You are accurately describing the current status and nature of Chinese deployments in the South China Sea (SCS) but that can and will change. More importantly, any change is a Chinese choice due to escalation dominance — ASEAN Navies better get serious on conducting long patrols in the future.
@OPSSG I do see that using Navy in SCS will only bring more diplomatic points for PRC.
I disagree and believe that there is no difference — American, Australian and Japanese deployments in the SCS are all via their navies.
Off course everyone knows that Chinese Coast Guard I'd a quasy military service. All coast guard are. However it's in diplomatic language to keep military from SCS dispute by PRC. Thus they don't want to be seen Internationally as the one who bring the tension toward military confrontation.
Even the Europeans see China as the aggressor in the SCS.
I do agree on more cooperation between Asean Navy, just like the way Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia Navies do in Malaca Strait is important. The trilateral co-op manage to say no to Indian Navy involvement in Malaca Strait security arrangements.
Glad we are agreed.
 
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