South China Sea thoughts?

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 2 of 2
9. I always thought the Philippines was poorly served by their leadership. Instead of backing down, the proud Pinoy doubles down on stupidity — every ASEAN member knows that Finlandization has occurred or worse, where the Pinoys by default are a Chinese client state — willing to backstab their American ally for a few million dollars.

(a) In Aug 1977, then Philippine President Marcos said: “as a contribution, therefore I say in earnest to the future of ASEAN. I wish to announce that the government of the Republic of the Philippines (is) therefore taking definite steps to eliminate one of the burdens of ASEAN- the claim of the Philippine Republic to Sabah.”​
(b) Therefore, as far back as 1977, it was agreed that the country’s claim on Sabah was to be dropped and this point was stated again by Arturo Tolentino, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of the Philippines in June 1980 during an ASEAN foreign minister’s meeting.​
(c) Further, China, US, ASEAN and the UN, all recognise Sabah as part of Malaysia — only idiots believe the Pinoy dormant claim argument. By way of background, when World War 2 ended, Sabah was handed over to the British government and made a crown colony. Sabah gained independence in 1963 when in a referendum, its people overwhelmingly voted in favour of joining the Federation of Malaysia.​

10. Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. has summoned Malaysia’s top diplomat in Manila after the Foreign Ministry of Malaysia summoned the Philippine ambassador over Locsin’s tweet that “Sabah is not in Malaysia.” The Philippines is again attempting to present itself as the successor state of the Sultanate of Sulu. This is being done based on the false claim that the territory was only leased to the British North Borneo Company in 1878, with the sovereignty of the Sultanate over the territory never having been relinquished. However, Malaysia considers this dispute as a “non-issue” as it interprets the 1878 agreement as that of cession and that it deems that the residents of Sabah had exercised their right to self-determination when they joined to form the Malaysian federation in 1963.

11. That this Locsin claim can remain on any agenda is a tribute to the infantile character of much Philippines politics. Suffice here to say that the claim to Sabah, supposedly based on then Sultan of Sulu’s deal with a British company in 1878, was not supported either by Spain, then Sulu’s overlord, nor subsequently by the succeeding power, the US, nor by the British or anyone else.

12. Locsin, who served as the Philippine ambassador to the United Nations before becoming the country's top diplomat, is no stranger to the controversy, as he routinely tussles with commenters on social media, calling them "idiots" and "stupid".

13. In early 2019, he defended his comments on Nazi Germany and Adolf Hitler's massacre of Jews as "historical fact", increasing diplomatic tension between Manila and Berlin. Locsin also wrote that President Rodrigo Duterte's comparison of the deadly war on drugs in the Philippines to the Nazi leader's killing of millions of Jews during the Holocaust was "a metaphor".

14. Are they too stupid to learn from the deaths that resulted from the Lahad Datu conflict from 11 Feb 2013 to 24 Mar 2013? The Malaysian Government was forced to conduct "Ops Daulat" to kill those armed supporters of Sultanate of Sulu, sent by Jamalul Kiram III, to Malaysia. During the campaign, Malaysian security forces had mobilized 5,610 troops, fighter jets, helicopters, mortars, and armored personnel carriers. The operation ended with Malaysian losses amounting to 10 security personnel killed and a financial cost of almost RM85 million (Zakariah, 2013). Meanwhile, the intruders’ losses were 68 dead and 173 arrested for being criminally involved in the armed intrusion or other offences. And thereafter, the 9 death sentences imposed on those found guilty.

15. In 2013, the Sultan Sulu’s supporters requested that the US, OIC and United Nations to intervene in the crisis. The Sultan urged the US to honor the 1915 Kiram-Carpenter Agreement, which concluded that the “U.S. colonial government will provide full protection to the Sultan of Sulu should the question of Sabah arise in the future between the Sultanate and any foreign authority.” The US ambassador to the Philippines rejected the request and believed that the Malaysian Government had the legitimacy to settle the problem.

16. My advice to the Philippines, the hole is deep enough. Stop digging further.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Duterte is as impulsive and unpredictable as Trump, but the problem is that he has so many supporters, a lot of the people of the Philippines seems to be a hardcore fan of him. He often shows total disrespect to women, insulted the pope (and for many devoted catholic Pinoys the pope is a holy person), but still many see him as The Great Leader.

Anyway he is also an unpredictable partner, he refuses to join this naval exercise as a sign of respect to china.

 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
@Sandhi Yudha, Duterte has no self respect. Therefore he does not know how to respect others, even in the case of China. He rules by fear and has paid supporters online — his online army works the same way as China’s 50 cent army.

1. Normal human beings, would be angry with Duterte’s South China Sea antics.

2. I am not angry as I expect him to behave this way. I guess Duterte is in fear of the Chinese embassy spooks exposing him and his family. as corrupt. He is in their pocket. Duterte is like typical Pinoy politicians. He is for sale and China is his pay master — where Duterte stupidly tried to cancel the VFA (before pressing the pause button again the face of Chinese aggression). He is a coward with absolutely no love or respect for China or the US.

3. China’s land reclamation in the South China Sea is aimed at pushing its own sensor and weapons range so far into the Pacific that it becomes impossible for American forces to touch Chinese positions without risk to its fleet. The only contingency PLA(N) can not manage as a 335-ship fleet would be a distant blockade by the US Navy. Capt (retd.) James Fanell has estimated that by 2030, the Chinese fleet will have a surface force of over 450 ships and a submarine force of about 110 boats. In his fifth State of the Nation Address (SONA) Duterte says he is inutile and Beijing is in possession of South China Sea: “China has the arms. We do not have it... They are in possession of the property... so what can we do? We have to go to war, and I cannot afford it, I cannot do anything.”

4. By saying that Beijing is in possession of South China Sea, Duterte plays into Beijing's hand over ASEAN’s CoC proposal regarding military exercises with Plus 8 parties in the South China Sea. But Beijing's idea of course will not pass because Brunei, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore will not act the same way as Duterte’s Administration does.

5. In relation to developments in the South China Sea, Singapore’s Foreign Minister, Vivian Balakrishnan reaffirmed Singapore’s consistent and longstanding position. Singapore is not a claimant state and does not take sides on the competing territorial claims. Singapore’s key interest is in maintaining peace and stability in one of the world’s busiest waterways and uphold the right of all states to freedom of navigation and overflight, as well as support the peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with universally recognised principles of international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
Post 2 of 2
9. I always thought the Philippines was poorly served by their leadership. Instead of backing down, the proud Pinoy doubles down on stupidity — every ASEAN member knows that Finlandization has occurred or worse, where the Pinoys by default are a Chinese client state — willing to backstab their American ally for a few million dollars.

(a) In Aug 1977, then Philippine President Marcos said: “as a contribution, therefore I say in earnest to the future of ASEAN. I wish to announce that the government of the Republic of the Philippines (is) therefore taking definite steps to eliminate one of the burdens of ASEAN- the claim of the Philippine Republic to Sabah.”​

(b) Therefore, as far back as 1977, it was agreed that the country’s claim on Sabah was to be dropped and this point was stated again by Arturo Tolentino, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of the Philippines in June 1980 during an ASEAN foreign minister’s meeting.​

(c) Further, China, US, ASEAN and the UN, all recognise Sabah as part of Malaysia — only idiots believe the Pinoy dormant claim argument. By way of background, when World War 2 ended, Sabah was handed over to the British government and made a crown colony. Sabah gained independence in 1963 when in a referendum, its people overwhelmingly voted in favour of joining the Federation of Malaysia.​
....
It was already under British control, though not direct rule, as a protectorate. The UK had got a foothold in 1846 when the Sultan of Brunei handed over Labuan to it. The other Bruneian portions of what is now Sabah were leased to an American in 1865, who sold the lease to an American company, which sold it to a German who was acting as Austria-Hungary's consul in Hong Kong, who offered to trade it to Italy, but Italy turned it down & Britain took it over. The Sultan of Sulu sold or leased his parts "in perpetuity" to a British trading company in 1878, & in 1888 it became a British protectorate, but the company continued to run it.

It was turned into a crown colony in 1946 because company control was seen as an anachronism, like Brooke rule in Sarawak.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
@Sandhi Yudha, Duterte has no self respect. Therefore he does not know how to respect others, even in the case of China. He rules by fear and has paid supporters online — his online army works the same way as China’s 50 cent army.

1. Normal human beings, would be angry with Duterte’s South China Sea antics.

2. I am not angry as I expect him to behave this way. I guess Duterte is in fear of the Chinese embassy spooks exposing him and his family. as corrupt. He is in their pocket. Duterte is like typical Pinoy politicians. He is for sale and China is his pay master — where Duterte stupidly tried to cancel the VFA (before pressing the pause button again the face of Chinese aggression). He is a coward with absolutely no love or respect for China or the US.

3. China’s land reclamation in the South China Sea is aimed at pushing its own sensor and weapons range so far into the Pacific that it becomes impossible for American forces to touch Chinese positions without risk to its fleet. The only contingency PLA(N) can not manage as a 335-ship fleet would be a distant blockade by the US Navy. Capt (retd.) James Fanell has estimated that by 2030, the Chinese fleet will have a surface force of over 450 ships and a submarine force of about 110 boats. In his fifth State of the Nation Address (SONA) Duterte says he is inutile and Beijing is in possession of South China Sea: “China has the arms. We do not have it... They are in possession of the property... so what can we do? We have to go to war, and I cannot afford it, I cannot do anything.”

4. By saying that Beijing is in possession of South China Sea, Duterte plays into Beijing's hand over ASEAN’s CoC proposal regarding military exercises with Plus 8 parties in the South China Sea. But Beijing's idea of course will not pass because Brunei, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore will not act the same way as Duterte’s Administration does.
"Duterte recently drew flak for saying that he was “inutile” and “cannot do anything” to counter China’s aggression in the South China Sea, virtually raising the white flag in surrender of Philippine sovereignty in Scarborough Shoal which the President said was already “occupied” by China."
^^^ this is already terrible...

But the next part is even worse:
"Duterte has also swept aside an international tribunal ruling that declared China’s mythical nine-dash line claim to the whole of South China Sea as invalid and its incursions into the maritime territories of the Philippines and other countries as illegal."

His country has struggled years for it. And now he just throw it away in the garbage bin together with the dignity and sovereignty of the Philippines.
Im sorry, but he is just a First Class Treasoner.
 

weaponwh

Member
"Duterte recently drew flak for saying that he was “inutile” and “cannot do anything” to counter China’s aggression in the South China Sea, virtually raising the white flag in surrender of Philippine sovereignty in Scarborough Shoal which the President said was already “occupied” by China."
^^^ this is already terrible...

But the next part is even worse:
"Duterte has also swept aside an international tribunal ruling that declared China’s mythical nine-dash line claim to the whole of South China Sea as invalid and its incursions into the maritime territories of the Philippines and other countries as illegal."

His country has struggled years for it. And now he just throw it away in the garbage bin together with the dignity and sovereignty of the Philippines.
Im sorry, but he is just a First Class Treasoner.
so what Duterte suppose to do? obviously china doesn't recognize tribunals outcome. and Trump is American first, unlikely significantly help Philippines. as i recall China took over Scarborough Shoal in 2012, its not like Phillippines can take it back by force. diplomatic solution wont work when PH in a bad relations with China and been at a weaker position. Even ASEAN themself have opposite claim against each other. So what Philippine president suppose to do, go hard on china? thus create more tension? go soft on china thus been call as traitor? they are between rock and a hard place.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
so what Duterte suppose to do? obviously china doesn't recognize tribunals outcome. and Trump is American first, unlikely significantly help Philippines. as i recall China took over Scarborough Shoal in 2012, its not like Phillippines can take it back by force. diplomatic solution wont work when PH in a bad relations with China and been at a weaker position. Even ASEAN themself have opposite claim against each other. So what Philippine president suppose to do, go hard on china? thus create more tension? go soft on china thus been call as traitor? they are between rock and a hard place.
Duterte could've continued with pursuing the illegality of the PRC actions with the Tribunal's finding to back his case. He would've had backing from other nations and it would've made other nations cases stronger. But Duterte being Duterte isn't interested in that and has his own ulterior motives. I would suggest that his motives aren't in the best interests of the Philippines but more in the interests of Duterte before anyone else. That's how it appears to me watching from the outside.
 

weaponwh

Member
Duterte could've continued with pursuing the illegality of the PRC actions with the Tribunal's finding to back his case. He would've had backing from other nations and it would've made other nations cases stronger.
What nation would back Phillippine and put actual action against china? Phillippine already have a strong case after winning the Tribunal, yet i didn't see phillippine got Scarborough Shoal back. so what action would other nations do that can help Phillippine against china? Most ASEAN has its own dispute, what would countries like aussies/UK can do for Phillippine that they are not already doing it?
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 1 of 2: Wrong to think of it as a choice between war or standing firm
so what Duterte suppose to do?
1. Your post is counter factual and adopting propaganda points made by idiots.

2. I expect that he should at the very least act in the interest of his country? The minimum expected of the Philippine President, is for him not to misuse his office to harm the security interests of his country; and not to behave like an agent of China.

3. All of ASEAN knows that Duterte has betrayed his own country. Even Malaysia has traditionally pursued what might be termed a “playing it safe” approach with respect to the South China Sea — where it pursues a combination of diplomatic, economic, legal, and security initiatives to secure its interests as a claimant state, while also being careful not to disrupt its bilateral relationship with China —has recognised this threat — the Chinese survey vessel Haiyang Dizhi 8, encroached into Malaysia’s EEZ in May.
obviously china doesn't recognize tribunals outcome.
4. Does it matter to the international community? This is a rhetorical question.

5. Stop with this mindless parroting of the illogical and stupid talking points — your propaganda will not work here. Read the facts provided in this thread, if you want to post.

6. On top of unilateral and multi-lateral group sails by the US Navy, in this thread and elsewhere in the forum, I have given clear evidence that China stands isolated, whereas, at least 11 countries (namely, Australia, Brunei, France, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, US, UK and Vietnam) have either:

(i) stood up to China; or​

(ii) spoke out against China,​

and that it is important to these countries that UNCLOS and the Tribunal’s decision should be respected. That their navies sail in the South China Sea and that they are not cowards. The leaders of these countries are not intimidated by CCP and there is no need to pander to CCP apologists like you.
...and Trump is... unlikely significantly help Philippines.
7. BUT the facts show that the Australians, Americans, and the Japanese have given militarily significant aid to the Philippines. Even ASEAN itself provides diplomatic cover for traditional Chinese client states to disagree with China and stand on the side of rule of law. You are lying.
...as i recall China took over Scarborough Shoal in 2012, its not like Phillippines can take it back by force.
8. That is the very reason why it is important to build on international concensus that China’s illegal actions must be condemned.

9. In May 2019, the French sailed their aircraft carrier in the South China Sea to make this point to the Chinese at the Shangri la dialogue. On 28 May 2019, the French Ambassador to Singapore Marc Abensour said: "The fact that France is also a security provider in the region, and that is well-illustrated through our shared commitment to freedom of navigation and of overflight," to prevent China from making further gains against claimant states like Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Vietnam.

10. Maybe you should read? As one of the 11 countries listed, the facts show Singapore's position on the South China Sea and our support for UNCLOS. Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam as claimant states have spoken up in support of UNCLOS. While the willingness to call out illegitimate Chinese actions in the disputed waters has oscillated over the years, the pendulum-swung in favour of small states speaking out in the face of China’s aggression. I know that China has been extremely skilful in using economic incentives to silence Southeast Asian countries in the South China Sea. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, for example, has on multiple occasions expressed his willingness to put aside the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling in exchange for Chinese investment and cooperation on infrastructure projects.

11. There is no cost to Philippines to stand with ASEAN — they are not being singled out. But Duterte is not even willing to do the minimum for his own country. This is strange and unacceptable.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 2 of 2: Choosing peace without the need for surrender
diplomatic solution wont work when PH in a bad relations with China and been at a weaker position.
12. Nonsense. Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia have shown that while they value China, they can firmly push back on China. Malaysia’s note verbale makes specific reference to PRC's note verbale CML/14/2019 dated 12 Dec 2019 to reject China’s claims to historic rights, or other sovereign rights or jurisdiction, with respect to the maritime areas of the South China Sea encompassed by the nine-dash line.

13. The role of diplomats is also to state disagreement with China.

14. If your navy is not strong enough to present a credible deterrence, join with others to show support. Singapore’s strong defence relationship with Brunei’s small but powerful navy enhances security of the region. Held from 27 to 29 July 2020 in the Philippines Sea, Exercise Pelican saw the participation of RSN's frigate RSS Supreme and RBN's KDB Darulehsan. Oustanding to see that it was all planned and conducted "contactless" to mitigate COVID-19 risk. They did pre-sail brief virtually, and met at sea.

15. Both ships are now enroute to Hawaii for RIMPAC 2020, as part of an international group sail with the US and Australian navies.
 
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weaponwh

Member
Post 2 of 2: Choosing peace without the need for surrender

12. Nonsense. Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia have shown that while they value China, they can firmly push back on China. Malaysia’s note verbale makes specific reference to PRC's note verbale CML/14/2019 dated 12 Dec 2019 to reject China’s claims to historic rights, or other sovereign rights or jurisdiction, with respect to the maritime areas of the South China Sea encompassed by the nine-dash line.

13. The role of diplomats is also to state disagreement with China.

14. If your navy is not strong enough to present a credible deterrence, join with others to show support. Singapore’s strong defence relationship with Brunei’s small but powerful navy enhances security of the region. Held from 27 to 29 July 2020 in the Philippines Sea, Exercise Pelican saw the participation of RSN's frigate RSS Supreme and RBN's KDB Darulehsan. Oustanding to see that it was all planned and conducted "contactless" to mitigate COVID-19 risk. They did pre-sail brief virtually, and met at sea.

15. Both ships are now enroute to Hawaii for RIMPAC 2020, as part of an international group sail with the US and Australian navies.
yes FON, speak out etc is fine and good, but it doesn't really solve the issue that china is arming ScS to the teeth. say China start building military installation on Scarborough Shoal, would US under trump intervene on behalf of PH? would aussie/malasia intervene other than criticize. since when did deterrent other than from US stop china continue building/arm bases in ScS? ASEAN in general can't just stay on one side or the other, they are in a tough situation to balance between china and US. If china start sense weakness from US in the region say in 10-20 years from now? what happen than, would aussies/malasia FON into 12nm of China disputed island? dont forget malasia/aussies economy is heavily rely on china. the fact is ScS is heavily rely on US, as US going inward under trump and China pump out navy ship like dumpling, what would situation be like in 10 years.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 1 of 3: The PLA(N) and CCP are good at hostile political messaging but really poor at creating real military-to-military relationships
yes FON, speak out etc is fine and good, but it doesn't really solve the issue that china is arming ScS to the teeth.
1. Of course the recent freedom of navigation operations by the Australian, American and Japanese navies makes a difference to 6 claimants in the South China Sea.

2. How can it not? Are you blind to its effect on causing China to back down — with PLA(N)’s impotence demonstrated and joy experienced by other 5 claimants (Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines and Taiwan) over China’s national humiliation. Even non-claimants like the Indonesian navy were happy with the outcome.

3. The reclaimed ‘rocks’ by themselves are not defensible by the PLA(N) — they get hit by typhoons on a regular basis and need substantial funding to upkeep — as the sea is trying to take it back. I see it as a waste of Chinese money to really try to defend a 800km trip wire (from China’s core and it’s real naval bases), when it is doomed to failure. Luckily, the PLA(N) and CCP are good at hostile political messaging but really poor at creating real military-to-military relationships with 3 key ASEAN members — who control China’s SLOCs through the Malacca and Singapore Straits. Until the PLA(N) becomes more capable with a global presence, China’s Malacca Straits dilemma continues.
...say China start building military installation on Scarborough Shoal, would US under trump intervene on behalf of PH?
4. Academic Jay Batongbacal said that the visiting forces agreement between the Philippines and the United States deterred the transformation of Scarborough Shoal by the PRC into an artificial island. Foreign Affairs Secretary Teddy Locsin has cited the increasing US military aid to keep the VFA, which the President Duterte has threatened to abrogate due to the revocation of the US visa of Sen. Bato dela Rosa.
...since when did deterrent other than from US stop china continue building/arm bases in ScS?
5. Other than the Duterte loving idiots from the Philippines who think otherwise, China is not being allowed by the other 4 South China Sea claimants to build on features/rocks they control. As an example, Malaysia controls 5 features and they will fight to defend it. Therefore they will not lose any of it. They have effective deterrence.

6. Defence of Malaysia is a Malaysian responsibility. Likewise for Vietnam. That is why the Malaysian and Vietnamese navies have invested in submarines as deterrence. They don’t shout about it because it humiliates China’s PLA(N).
ASEAN in general can't just stay on one side or the other, they are in a tough situation to balance between china and US.
7. What is so tough about doing a few naval exercises to demonstrate resolve? The navies of Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Vietnam all do it.

8. Washington is not taking sides in the long-standing territorial disputes. Rather, it is explicitly declaring that Beijing’s harassment of other states’ fishing and hydrocarbon development is illegal. This move is long overdue.

9. Arcane debates over international law and the fact that the United States is not a party to the Convention on the Law of the Sea delayed unqualified and explicit backing of the 2016 ruling. Doing so now clears the path for U.S. policies to support allies and partners in their efforts to rebuff Beijing’s coercive maritime practices. As a member of ASEAN, my country of course appreciates and supports the US Navy’s reassuring presence in the South China Sea — this presence not only limits the escalation options available to the PLA(N), it also limits the responses from the claimants — keeping the peace.
 
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Todjaeger

Potstirrer
yes FON, speak out etc is fine and good, but it doesn't really solve the issue that china is arming ScS to the teeth. say China start building military installation on Scarborough Shoal, would US under trump intervene on behalf of PH? would aussie/malasia intervene other than criticize. since when did deterrent other than from US stop china continue building/arm bases in ScS? ASEAN in general can't just stay on one side or the other, they are in a tough situation to balance between china and US. If china start sense weakness from US in the region say in 10-20 years from now? what happen than, would aussies/malasia FON into 12nm of China disputed island? dont forget malasia/aussies economy is heavily rely on china. the fact is ScS is heavily rely on US, as US going inward under trump and China pump out navy ship like dumpling, what would situation be like in 10 years.
At this point, it seems as though you do not recognize any possible response options to PRC actions in the SCS other than direct conflict or surrendering, when there are in fact a wide range of options available.

Given what has happened and is likely to continue happening with the global economy as a result of the current international pandemic, it would also be prudent to really look at the range of potential scenarios in 10 - 20 years time, especially in a possibly contested region like the SCS. In this case the PRC has been a major trading partner with a number of ASEAN members as well as Oz/NZ and elsewhere. However, has that level of trade grown/continued between places like the PRC and Australia, or has it started to slow or contract? I can see scenarios where nations which had the PRC as a major trading partner decide to reduce their level of trade and/or dependency on the PRC as a trading partner, for a variety of reasons.

I would also like to point a few other things out. The first is that the current POTUS's term ends Jan. 20th, 2021, or ~5.5 months from now, and the US may very well have a new president on Jan. 21st, 2021 with a very different foreign and defence policy. Now DT IS NOT the place to discuss the current US election campaigns, and for very good reasons (one being that the Mod team generally, and one Mod in particular do not take prisoners when discussing politics) but IMO it would be naive to believe that the attitude of the current POTUS/Administration would dictate what a US response would be for future administrations. Pretty much unless there was some sort of incident which required a US response within the next 5.5 months, it would be for the future US leadership to decide what and how they respond. If the current POTUS was to win a 2nd term, and then direct changes to US defence capabilities, that could then impact a US response in the 2nd term or possibly beyond depending on what/how US capabilities were changed.

Lastly, rapidly building and launching large numbers of naval vessels does not indicate a particular naval capability apart from ship construction. A surge in naval vessels is useless unless there is also a corresponding surge in trained crews who are proficient in serving aboard those vessels, officers to command those crews and vessels, and naval staff to command groups of those vessels in task forces. In some respects, building and launching the vessels is the faster and easier part of getting an effective naval force into service. Lastly, regardless of how many naval vessels the PRC is able to build, or rocks/islands in the SCS which can be built up and fortified, that means little if the PRC can then be starved of fuel during a conflict. Given the very long SLOC which fuel bound for the PRC has to transit, and the number of potential choke points which those SLOC pass through, the PLA(N) is going to continue to be vulnerable. TBH I do not see that changing until the PLA(N) becomes a much larger and more capable force with a persistent presence globally, including a network of far flung bases to support distant fleets.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Interesting development.
I wonder which sensors and weaponsystems will be installed. With Japanese equipment or just the hull with basic navigation radar?

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Interesting development.
I wonder which sensors and weaponsystems will be installed. With Japanese equipment or just the hull with basic navigation radar?

That won't impress the Mandarins in Beijing. Undoubtedly there will be some self righteous screeching emanating from there at some stage.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 2 of 3: Winning the contest to be seen as THE dummest diplomat in ASEAN

Post 2 of 2
9. I always thought the Philippines was poorly served by their leadership...

(a) In Aug 1977, then Philippine President Marcos said: “as a contribution, therefore I say in earnest to the future of ASEAN. I wish to announce that the government of the Republic of the Philippines (is) therefore taking definite steps to eliminate one of the burdens of ASEAN- the claim of the Philippine Republic to Sabah.”​
...​
(c) Further, China, US, ASEAN and the UN, all recognise Sabah as part of Malaysia — only idiots believe the Pinoy dormant claim argument.​
....
10. As usual Teddy Locsin’s demonstrated stupidity in July 2020 has resulted in Malaysia issuing a note verbale in Aug 2020 (submitted before the United Nations) that it “categorically rejects” the excessive maritime claims arising from the Philippines’ claims over the Kalayaan Island Group (Spratlys) and also set out the valid grounds on why it disapproved Philippines' claim to Sabah.

11. I wonder what is more important to the Pinoys? Teddy Locsin’s imaginary claims to Sabah or being discredited in Aug 2020 before the United Nations and the country’s top diplomat looking like an idiot to the diplomats of other ASEAN member states.

12. Basically the Malaysian note verbale is saying that the Duterte adminIstration idiots like Teddy Locsin cannot have his cake and eat it too. Of course many are too dumb to understand this because Filipinos have a culture of accepting double standards.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 3 of 3: Understanding Chinese informational superiority
The attitude and statements of the Philippine politicians are indeed confusing.
Duterte act as china's little doggy and want to give Philippine's EEZ away to china, but this politician has a quite other view on this case.
13. Agreed, they are not just inconsistent — their corrupt politicians, like Duterte, are for sale to the highest bidder. Like Finland, the Pinoys are under the shadow of a giant but unlike Finland, they don’t Intend to develop a credible capability to resist pressure — so they sway where the wind blows. As such the Duterte administration is an active agent in not only undermining ASEAN unity, he is destroying Pinoy credibility going forward.

14. You can count on the Pinoys to say what a foreign power wants to hear in return for freebies — officially the Pinoys are an American ally but in reality they are less than a partner (in contrast to the nominally non-aligned Singapore, who is a partner that behaves like a trusted ally). Delfin Lorenzana is a Secretary of Defense that has to make to right noise to get more military aid from the Americans. They are a country with an air force that is all air and no force. They have a navy that is armed like a coast guard that is less capable than that of tiny Brunei.

15. China’s Spratly Island outposts’ offer Beijing decisive information superiority against any challenger in the South China Sea. Their primary purpose is not military power projection and the deployment of weapons, but information power. The Chinese bases’ main contribution is to facilitate substantial command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities in the South China Sea.
16. In the meantime beyond Open Source data on China’s forward defence line 800km from its coast, China recently launched 4 missiles into the South China Sea, according to US defense officials, as part of a flurry of military exercises extending thousands of miles along the country's coastline to send a message to the US and ASEAN member states.

17. USAF RC-135S departed Kadena at for a South China Sea mission to collect data on Chinese missile tests into the South China Sea. The “Cobra Ball” collects optical and electronic data on ballistic missile targets — so I am sure the US military is grateful for the data that will help them understand China’s missile capabilities a little better.

18. While there are tensions between China and the US, things are not on a hair trigger. Hopefully, both sides will reflect and know that no one within ASEAN wants a little shooting war with China. But this does not mean small countries should bend a knee to imperial China.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Respect is earned, constant disrespect of others within ASEAN begets contempt and diplomatic isolation

1. Looks like the Duterte administration has finally discovered that China may not be the friend that they are hoping it to be; and that the US Mutual Defense Treaty is important. After playing a dirty game of threatening to cancel the VFA in Feb 2020, in an attempt to get more aid, from both the US and China, these morons think the Americans will just forget about their prior swaying to China’s outreach.

2. Duterte administration’s eagerness to bend a knee ensures that China does not respect him or his crony, Locsin. More importantly, other ASEAN states have started to openly disrespect Locsin as an undiplomatic diplomat; and have taken firm action to push back against their inconsistency with regard to their position on their South China Sea claims in a race to the bottom.

3. Being a US ally is not the possession of magical immunity idol — like many Pinoys think, given their habit of being unreliable — on 16 Sep 1991, Pinoy senators made the decision to close American bases in Subic and Clark — again on 13 Jul 2004, where the Philippines said, would withdraw its tiny peacekeeping force from Iraq as soon as it can, over kidnapped Pinoys working as drivers.
  • The defence of Korea for example is a Korean responsibility. The Prime Ministers of Australia and Japan will treat North and South with proper care and be carefully balanced in their responses to ROK. Australian and Japanese responses to Mar 2010 ROKS Cheonan sinking and Nov 2010 bombardment of Yeonpyeong in Korea, were carefully balanced.
  • These incidents with a US ally demonstrated that if the stakes are high enough, no one really dares to or wants to escalate — keeping in mind that North Korea maintains nearly 6,000 artillery systems within range of major South Korean population centers, which it could use to kill many thousands in just an hour, even without resorting to chemical or nuclear weapons. Rand researchers assessed the magnitude of this threat in 2020.
  • Being prepared matters. If the PLA(N) sinks a Pinoy navy boat, no war is expected as they are not prepared to respond. It is up to the Philippine Navy to develop the capability to shoot back. If they can’t do it, they will just have to back down in a confrontation. India found this out the hard way, when 20 of their soldiers well clubbed to death by the PLA at their border.
4. As active agents of China and playing a double game, in many ways, the Philippines is much worse than a normal Chinese client state like Laos or Cambodia (whose position is well understood)— we have to recognise Pinoy agency in trying to cynically betray others within ASEAN and their failed attempt play all sides — ensuring that no party in ASEAN or even the Americans will help them, beyond a token level, when they really need the help.

5. Twenty-four years ago, as Taiwanese were readying to hold their country’s first direct presidential election in March, China flexed its military muscles by holding a series of military exercises and firing missiles within thirty-five miles off the ports of Keelung and Kaohsiung, causing a panic in Taiwan and prompted U.S. President William J. Clinton to deploy a carrier battle group to international waters near Taiwan.

(a) This key geopolitical event, that occurred in 1995 from July 21 to 26 — has parallels to China’s missile firing into the South China Sea in Aug 2020. That 1995 event was not even triggered by China. For the PLA, this was a never again moment, where it was forced to back down.​

(b) The Chinese press has occasionally sent deterrent signals during periods of crisis across the Taiwan Strait. In 1999, amid the crisis sparked by Lee Teng-hui’s articulation of the “two state theory” (liangguo lun), the PLA Daily issued articles by a “staff commentator” (benbao pinglunyuan). The first appeared in July 1999, warning “Lee Teng-hui Don’t Play With Fire” [Li Denghui buyao wanhuo].”​

6. Having understood this July 1995 event, certain countries within ASEAN, like Brunei and Singapore decided to be more prepared — the scaling up of the bilateral Exercise Pelican is a case on point on being more prepared. In the case of Singapore, the country begin building the Formidable Class in 2002. The Next Fighter Replacement competition in 2003-2005 that was won by Boeing’s F-15SG, demonstrated a sense of urgency by MINDEF (that was not generally understood at that time). In fact, the trend line of PRC defence spending was clear even so far back — which will affect the region. It is important to note that Brunei’s and Singapore’s respective capability development are not directed by a China threat. Rather, it is planning to manage a general increase in regional defence spending.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Seems that the Philippines will spend more on defence and that $688 million is reserved for defence procurements.
So the Philippines has allocated PHP33 billion for defence procurements in 2021. The funding is expected to support the acquisition of equipment including ATMOS 155 mm artillery systems produced by Elbit Systems.

We can expect everything from Duterte, maybe he will spend all the budget to order chinese stuff. And of course all the defence equipment will be not really suitable to protect their islands, territorial waters and EEZ against chinese naval agression. I mean, instead of an artillery system for their army, they can better spend the budget on modernizing their FFBNW navy or order a second squadron of FA-50 with some AIM-9 and AGM-65 missiles.

 
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