The cynic in me wonders if Trudeau’s sudden interest in SSNs might just be a tactic for delaying replacement of the current subs until the 2040s or beyond.
It could be an excuse to carry out life extension on its current subs and push back on making any actual decision on their replacement for another decade or so.
There is a life extension project already - the Victoria Class Modernization Project (VCM), with first upgraded sub completed in 2026 (
Victoria-class submarines - Canada.ca click on the Implementation tab).
The Canadian Patrol Submarine Program (CPSP) is a real thing, the program office stood up in 2021, and has been in direct contact with a multitude of countries and companies to determine which sub fits the mission profile best, and who has near-term availability. (
Canada in talks with six countries over future submarine needs | Shephard)
The life extended Victorias will start to age out in 2036. That is the date the program office has been given to have first of class of the new subs in RCN hands. The government has stated publicly that this is one of the unfunded projects that, when approved, will push the Defence budget closer to the 2%. The "official" public budget for subs is $60Bil for 12 hulls, and another $120Bil life cycle costs, for a total through-life project budget of $180Bil. That, however, was for conventional subs. It's pretty widely known that nuclear subs are aspirational, and that SSKs would be needed to bridge the gap, but this latest with the French might change that equation, as some pundits have suggested France might be open to delivering early from the existing French navy program.
Total speculation, but that could get us us a nuc earlier than 2036 if France diverts one of their Suffren class to Canada. I'm dubious. Either way, this is a real program now, and love em or hate em, the current government has come through on a number of large procurement projects, and with subs now officially part of the defence update, it looks pretty good for this procurement. However, if they want to get boats by the mid 2030s, they will need to get moving and sign some contracts soon.
