Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) News and Discussions

[John Fedup]

What if China forces the Northwest passage issue. They do exactly what the US is doing around Taiwan/China, but they do it in the northwest. They sail ~30 submarines, a couple of carrier groups through the northwest passage in summer, a particularly hot summer in 2030. They do it because they claim its international waters. They move their fishing fleet into the area. They are backed by J20s and bombers operating overhead.

This is a huge "what if". Cruising through the NW passage is a great way to risk expensive naval assets for SFA. Their fleet would be thousands of km away from reliable support in a constrained passage. Thirty SSNs in the NW passage by 2030, no way even if they have that many by then. As for a fishing fleet being protected by J20s, where exactly are they going to be based to reach the NW passage? Bombers maybe but what a waste of valuable strategic assets.

China is not the same actor as soviet Russia. In some ways it less straight up combative. The Chinese tend not to be as reckless as the Russians.

Agree, and this is why risking a large naval fleet in the NW passage is extremely unlikely

But they are far better equipped, far larger force, way greater technological capabilities. They aren't really interested in destroying the west, as they are in controlling it and running it. The Chinese never really subscribed heavily into MAD escalations.

Again, I agree albeit once their nuke inventory expands MAD may be more applicable

 

[StingrayOZ]

This is a huge "what if". Cruising through the NW passage is a great way to risk expensive naval assets for SFA. Thirty SSNs in the NW passage by 2030, no way even if they have that many by then.

Why would they have to be SSNs? Is Canada buying SSNs?

China operates about 60 submarines. Building more. They have ~24 AIP conventional subs today. They will have 25 SSN by the mid 2030s.

Their fleet would be thousands of km away from reliable support in a constrained passage.

The Chinese operate further away in the European waters and around Australia. Canada would be easier and closer.

China has operated their fishing fleet in South America.. Including the Argentinians sinking a few of their ships. I don't know why Canada would be "too far" as a concept. Canada is literally just out the front of China.

As for a fishing fleet being protected by J20s, where exactly are they going to be based to reach the NW passage? Bombers maybe but what a waste of valuable strategic assets.

The J20 has a range of 6000 km and is capable of air to air refuelling. They could take off in bases in northern Russia. As a show of force in peacetime, maybe fly over Ontario or Vancouver. They have hundreds of them, they will need something to keep their pilots and planners busy. They have a ever growing refuelling fleet now too. Plenty of need to try ambitious flex of strength type ops. No doubt the Russians might be interested in Buying J20 if the Chinese could demonstrate that.

Agree, and this is why risking a large naval fleet in the NW passage is extremely unlikely

We thought it would be unlikely a Chinese fleet lead by a cruiser would turn up off the coast of Sydney and Auckland and start an unannounced live fire drill into dense commercial airspace, causing commercial aircraft to take evasive action. But here we are. The relationship wasn't even in the toilet at that stage, so that was even more odd, perhaps a bit of disconnect between military and political circles in China.

Again, they may not do it in actual war time. But as a grey zone activity. Sure, Northwest passage is exactly the kind of situation they want to enforce around the 1st island chain. Canada has been involved in FoN exercises which annoy the Chinese.

Or you know, release more surveillance balloons, or drone overflights. Drone FON exercises. Fish in Canadian waters in the Northwest. Ram Canadian flagged vessels, intimidate warships, use sonar to harass divers, etc.

I am not saying its a certainty. But are there realistic scenarios. Sure. China is a handful. As the US Canada relationship fractures, they might want to drive a wedge in and just cause chaos, or get the Americans to reploy forces outside of Asia.

 

[swerve]

The Chinese operate further away in the European waters and around Australia. Canada would be easier and closer.

The NW passage isn't easy. Look at a map.

You can sail all the way round Australia in international waters. Europeans have been doing it since the 17th century. The first voyage through the NW passage was in the early 20th century, & the boat had to overwinter, & was prepared for it. It was shallow draught, so it could use waters not navigable by ships, & had a very small crew able to hunt. First transit in one year was in 1944. Easy?

And it can't be done without sailing through Canadian territorial waters.

 

[John Fedup]

@StingrayOZ ...replied to your post 2122 in the Canada defence thread.

 

[StingrayOZ]

I am not trying to deliberately annoy people, but I thought these views were pretty well known and articulated academically.

And it can't be done without sailing through Canadian territorial waters.

Says who and who's navy?

Explainer: The Northwest Passage’s Shipping Potential, Legal Status, and What’s at Stake

With climate change accelerating and global interest in transiting the Passage rising, the unresolved debate over the Northwest Passage's legal status could have geopolitical implications for North America and maritime claims elsewhere in the world.

www.belfercenter.org

The U.S. Argument for an International Strait: The United States asserts that the NWP qualifies as an international strait under Article 37 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), arguing that the NWP connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and thus must be treated as a strait with a right of transit passage for all nations. The U.S. position on international straits is that they do not depend on a waterway being ice-free or frequently used historically – if a passage connects two high seas/exclusive economic zone (EEZ) areas, it can be considered an international strait subject to transit rights. The United States has never accepted Canada’s historic waters claim and regularly reasserts that the Passage is an international waterway.

So the Canadian forces are going to resist a combined global effort to enforce its uniquely Canadian view that its Canadian internal territory, a precedent that would mean the gulf is Iran's territory, Malacca is Singapore/Indonesia/Malaysia's, etc. China claims everything out to the third island chain.

You are going to start a global war with this position. If you expect NATO support on this, I think that is also a mistake.

The NW passage isn't easy. Look at a map.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/10/why-the-northwest-passage-probably-wont-be-ready-for-shipping-any-time-soon/

Well with warming definitely a thing, the southern passage is quite doable in the future. Chinas point isn't to actually use the route. Its to create tension between the US and Canada. People tell me they can't see a way the US or Canada would ever differ on a defence issue, and this is a mighty huge one.

China didn't circumnavigate Australia to find a new route to trade spices from the Dutch indies. China already operates many Artic bases, including in Norway, Iceland, Sweden etc.

What China is really up to in the Arctic

China wants to create a “polar Silk Road” through the Arctic by developing its shipping routes and tapping its resources.

www.afr.com

Im just saying. Entirely possible to have a falling out.

 

[Todjaeger]

I am not trying to deliberately annoy people, but I thought these views were pretty well known and articulated academically.


Says who and who's navy?

Explainer: The Northwest Passage’s Shipping Potential, Legal Status, and What’s at Stake

With climate change accelerating and global interest in transiting the Passage rising, the unresolved debate over the Northwest Passage's legal status could have geopolitical implications for North America and maritime claims elsewhere in the world.

www.belfercenter.org

So the Canadian forces are going to resist a combined global effort to enforce its uniquely Canadian view that its Canadian internal territory, a precedent that would mean the gulf is Iran's territory, Malacca is Singapore/Indonesia/Malaysia's, etc. China claims everything out to the third island chain.

You are going to start a global war with this position. If you expect NATO support on this, I think that is also a mistake.


View attachment 55098

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/10/why-the-northwest-passage-probably-wont-be-ready-for-shipping-any-time-soon/

Well with warming definitely a thing, the southern passage is quite doable in the future. Chinas point isn't to actually use the route. Its to create tension between the US and Canada. People tell me they can't see a way the US or Canada would ever differ on a defence issue, and this is a mighty huge one.

China didn't circumnavigate Australia to find a new route to trade spices from the Dutch indies. China already operates many Artic bases, including in Norway, Iceland, Sweden etc.

What China is really up to in the Arctic

China wants to create a “polar Silk Road” through the Arctic by developing its shipping routes and tapping its resources.

www.afr.com

Im just saying. Entirely possible to have a falling out.

That particular US take on the NWP is not something universally held as true, even in the US.

The NWP is also quite a bit different from international waterways like the Strait of Malacca or Strait of Hormuz, so even if the current US interpretation of UNCLOS (interestingly it appears that the US has not ratified UNCLOS either...) should things end up before an international court or tribunal, it is distinctly possible that the end result could affirm the position of Canada. After all, part of the NWP as a SLOC if it were open/ice-free would pass between a portion of Nunavut on mainland Canadian, and Victoria Island which is an inhabited Canadian island split between the Nunavut and Northwest Territories administratively. Furthermore, Victoria Island at it's closest point is only ~27 km from the Canadian mainland, with no non-Canadian land or territorial claims adjacent to or on the shore of long stretches of the waterway. That lack of valid territorial claim makes it quite different IMO from the situation in places like along the Strait of Malacca, where the strait also functions as a boundary between Malaysia and Indonesia, or between Indonesia and Singapore, or in areas where both Singapore and Malaysia could have claims to the waterway. If one looks even further east, there are portions of what would be the NWP which are only ~1.7 km wide between the Canadian mainland and some of the smaller islands between Baffin Island and the mainland. For further context, the Bass Strait is not considered an int'l waterway whilst being ~210 km at the narrowest point between TAS and mainland Australia.