That adds up to 33 airframes, that’s leaves 38, not 41 (assuming the RCAF did in fact procure all seven to be used as spares?).
Yeh, the 41 number seems high. I expect they will be given if it happens in batches of ~12 at a time. We don't just given them a mega amount of bushmasters either.
Ultimately the idea is to get Russia back to negotiate an end. 36 Fighter aircraft, on top of western tanks and APC's and 155mm artillery flowing into Ukraine, may just push them to see its unlikely they will have anymore advantage than what they have now.
I don't think that the Finns would be to worried about Russia putting pressure on them. They have been suppling war material etc., to Ukraine and this would be no different. Also Finland is a full NATO member now and that makes a big difference.
Well I think the Fins would be supportive, but the Russians can put operational pressure on them still. Hard to train pilots if someone is harrassing your sovereignty at a high tempo. I just don't think Finland is ideal at this point to train Ukrainian pilots. However, they would be idea for training maintainers has they are one of the few western air forces who went and replaced Mig21's to Hornets.
Meanwhile, Spain has a whole Fleet of F-18, Russia can never get to them in any form, or apply any pressure, or complain about threatening displays etc, and its warm, and sunny. There are already a whole bunch of American and NATO facilities there and they are bigger than the ones at Finland. I am just pointing out that it doesn't have to be all Finland. Spain had 84 F-18, so they are a bigger owner/operator than Australia was and bigger than Finland. They have a large air force and operate 60+ Eurofighters as well. They also have 12 two seaters. For experienced fast jet pilots that is handy. They have EADS and Indra who are familiar on supporting upgrading hornets.
Finland seems quite interested in donating its F-18 once they start receiving F-35s. But that is a while off. Spain hasn't yet ordered any F-35's, but they are receiving Eurofighter deliveries which may mean they have some to dispose of. They bought 24 x-UN f-18 in the mid 90's. They are probably in the process of winding down their F-18 fleet. Perhaps not completely, but they aren't flying all of those airframes intensely.
Which changes the F-18 announcement, if say Australia can supply ~36 F-18 initially, and then every 3-6 months another European nation can supply another 6-12 aircraft. Then this looks like less of a one off an Russia can see ~80 F-18's in Spain, ~64 F-18's in Finland, Ex-USMC F-18 with probably another 100 aircraft. It starts to look like Ukraine could eventually get as many F-18's as they can get their hands on.
As NSM deliveries take off, Harpoon becomes disposable for western forces. While an older naval missile, it could be put into use as a ground attack strike to hit GPS locations. F-18 operating harpoon gives a reasonable stand off capability. Unlike storm shadow, it could be hundreds or thousands of harpoons.
Looking into it, the proposal may have legs.
Wider, well Australia's role in global politics is lifted. We aren't just a player in our region, we affect globally.
Doesn't have to cost the US a lot to allow this. Its also a lot of middle powers working together rather than the US facilitating every step.
Australia EU economic relations. There is a FTA still in the air.
Australia EU military relations. There are acquisitions in the air. Also helping Australia in the Pacific can be returned, Australia helps europe.
Australia is the perfect nation to donate equipment because its so far away from Russia and is a competitor against Russia in many economic areas.
Spurs adoption of NSM and F-35. This could be the prod to move Spain to acquire F-35. Do this, get this, some sort of deal.
