Philippine Air Force Discussions and Updates

[ngatimozart]

During WW2 in North Africa, a RAF squadron painted sharks teeth and eyes on the nose of their P-40 Kittyhawks. From memory this was late 1940 and then in 1942 when USAAC P-40 fighters arrived in North Africa, they had sharks teeth and eyes painted on their noses. Now when you see P-40 warbirds they're wearing the sharks teeth and eyes, and not just P-40s. I've seen it on P-51s, Spitfires, A-10s etc. Just a pet peeve of mine, that's all.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

According to Philippines proposes new defence procurement law
the Philippines is suddenly interested in the Agusta/TAI T-129.

If im not wrong they now only have 2 second hand AH-1S Cobras, so its quite a leap forward, if its become reality.

Edit: it seems that the Philippines were already attracted to the T-129 some years ago. On 18 December 2018, Philippines and Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with TAI for 6 new T129s for the PAF.

 

[ngatimozart]

According to Philippines proposes new defence procurement law
the Philippines is suddenly interested in the Agusta/TAI T-129.

If im not wrong they now only have 2 second hand AH-1S Cobras, so its quite a leap forward, if its become reality.

It's quite a handy capability. I think it would be good for them if it indeed turns into reality.

 

[tonnyc]

According to Philippines proposes new defence procurement law
the Philippines is suddenly interested in the Agusta/TAI T-129.

If im not wrong they now only have 2 second hand AH-1S Cobras, so its quite a leap forward, if its become reality.

Edit: it seems that the Philippines were already attracted to the T-129 some years ago. On 18 December 2018, Philippines and Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with TAI for 6 new T129s for the PAF.

The procurement was delayed supposedly because Turkey could not get export permission for the US parts that the T-129 uses. While the real reason behind this isn't stated, many speculated it is the blowback from Turkey's insistence on buying the S-400 missile system. The US instead is offering the Apache and Viper helicopters to the Philippines instead. Philippine Air Force's budget situation is likely to force them to get the Viper rather than Apache. There could be a surprise though, since it's not that the Philippine government doesn't have the money, it's that they are unwilling to spend it. Heck, even when the money is already given, it's not spent and returned instead. In 2019, of the 25 billion peso allocated for Armed Forces of the Philippines' equipment modernization, only 16 billion was spent and the 9 billion difference was returned. Nine billion peso is about $180 million. This isn't a unique event either. If you read the linked article you can see that the Armed Forces of the Philippines is allocated 300 billion peso for 2018-2022 for modernization program but if you work the math you can see that only 58 billion of that 300 billion is spent up to this point. And 2020 was supposed to be the midpoint of the program.

Back to the T-129, my prediction is the Philippines won't get it. The Philippines can affirm its intention as many times as they want, but the US will not allow Turkey to export the T-129. This won't change until Turkey and the US align their interests again or Turkey figures a way to replace the US parts, which isn't something I see happening this next few years. The Philippines is most likely to waffle and get nothing all the way to 2022, but there's a significant chance that someone will be able to push through and get the Vipers approved. Apache isn't impossible, but the chance is slim due to the much higher price. EDIT: Just to be thorough, there are other alternatives that the Philippine Air Force looked at, such as armed S-70i Blackhawks or used attack helis from other countries. But not the T-129.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I think you are right, its very unlickely that the US will cooperate with the T-129.
So big chance that the Philippines will get new or second hands AH-1s or S-70/UH-60 versions. But ofcourse the US has to come with a good deal, if not then there is a chance that Duterte want to order Harbin Z-19 or something else....

 

[Ananda]

Got this from Max Defense site. Actually from the list, Philippines seems do progress on their procurement plan so far.

In AF for example, they already make progress in Air Surveillance Radar, Light Utility Aircraft (I suspect this Tucano), Trainer, UAV. However considering the lists below and how they're proceed until now, unless they're changing the way on their procurement process I still see at most they achieve 60% on the list.

Special mission Aircraft (MPA), C4ISTAR, Heavy lift Helicopters and Multirole Fighters are some of the things that based on Philippines media, forums and blogs like Max Defense shown questionable effort by Philippines MinDef to be procured before 2022.

 

[tonnyc]

Got this from Max Defense site. Actually from the list, Philippines seems do progress on their procurement plan so far.

In AF for example, they already make progress in Air Surveillance Radar, Light Utility Aircraft (I suspect this Tucano), Trainer, UAV. However considering the lists below and how they're proceed until now, unless they're changing the way on their procurement process I still see at most they achieve 60% on the list.
(Snip)

I'm going to limit myself to just the air force stuff from that infographic you quoted earlier.

Sadly, of the air force stuff, only the radar, some of the UAV, the armaments and munitions, and maybe the communication systems are showing clear progress.

The Super Tucano is from Horizon 1 under Close Air Support. Light Utility Aircraft is NC-212. Medium Utility Aircraft is C-295.

Light Utility and Medium Utility Aircraft has been in negotiations for years. Light Utility is likely to get signed in 2021 and medium utility following in H3. They technically could have signed for both in Horizon 2, but well, they didn't even when it seems like the obvious thing to do.

 

[Ananda]

Super Tucano is from Horizon 1 under Close Air Support. Light Utility Aircraft is NC-212. Medium Utility Aircraft is C-295.

Thanks for correction on Light Utility, I miss understood their term of Utility is similar with Lift. The Multirole Fighters is something that politically significant for Duterte Administration image on building defense for Philippines. So far seems it's not showing any intentional direction, even as high value ticket items politically.

 

[tonnyc]

Thanks for correction on Light Utility, I miss understood their term of Utility is similar with Lift. The Multirole Fighters is something that politically significant for Duterte Administration image on building defense for Philippines. So far seems it's not showing any intentional direction, even as high value ticket items politically.

President Duterte is on record saying that buying the F-16 is utterly useless. To quote him from the Philippine's official state news agency, "We do not need any F-16s. It would be utterly useless to buy it, but I need attack helicopters and small planes for the counter-insurgency," he said.

There will be no multirole fighters (MRF) purchase during his administration. Sure there are fighters other than F-16, but President Duterte doesn't mean just F-16. It's all fighter jets in general, be it Gripen or Flankers or even JF-17. It's not about him not wanting an American fighter jet because of his closeness to China. If that was the case we would have seen an effort to get a Chinese fighter jet. He just don't want to spend a single centavo on any MRF. Period. About the only way PAF can get MRF during his administration is if they are given for free. And by free I don't mean like the Indonesian deal where the Indonesian Air Force were given used aircrafts for free but have to spend money on refurbishing and upgrading. I mean, literally some country will have to give them fully operational fighter jets delivered to their air bases without any payment, monetary or otherwise.

There might be some purchases for Super Tucano in his administration. Maybe, if PAF is really lucky and he's in a really good mood, FA-50. Or maybe not. But at least it's possible he will allow those purchases.

 

[Ananda]

Maybe, if PAF is really lucky and he's in a really good mood, FA-50. Or maybe not. But at least it's possible he will allow those purchases

Seems if I saw what the Pinoys Media and Defense Blogs, they're also thinking another batch of FA-50 as the best they can hope. I'm just thinking that the administration put effort to publicly put Horizon Two as guidelines, at least they should put efforts to even progress more than 50% for achievement by end period. In my previous Post, I put 60% achievement of Horizon Two by 2022. But seems even 60% can be optimistic as it stands now.

 

[OPSSG]

If ever we get a Herc, we'd be in better off using them as transports. After years of just living on one or two functional Hercs, we're now finally up to five, with the possibility of activating more.

We need transports.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1307507347699331072

16 years after adroth’s post and being gifted 2 C-130Ts by the Americans, again, the Pinoys are again down to a fleet of 3 — currently, the PAF has a non-operational C-130B, with 1 C-130H and 2 C-130T currently serving.

To ensure the the PAF values it’s C-130 fleet the Americans are making them co-pay to refurbish 2 more C-130Hs before transferring it to the Pinoys.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1307507347699331072

16 years after adroth’s post and being gifted 2 C-130Ts by the Americans, again, the Pinoys are again down to a fleet of 3 — currently, the PAF has a non-operational C-130B, with 1 C-130H and 2 C-130T currently serving.

To ensure the the PAF values it’s C-130 fleet the Americans are making them co-pay to refurbish 2 more C-130Hs before transferring it to the Pinoys.

That the Philippine Airforce ordered 2 used C-130s, i believe...but 5 brandnew C-130J-30!?

I really hope that the PAF takes care of their C-130s in the future, not like in the past, or the way the navy takes care of the Gregorio del Pilar ships.

 

[OPSSG]

That the Philippine Airforce ordered 2 used C-130s, i believe...but 5 brandnew C-130J-30!?

This is exactly like their plan to buy F-16s. Lots of sound and fury, but when it comes time to pull the trigger in May 2021, lots of excuses.

 

[Ananda]

First batch of Polish Black Hawk helos arrive in the Philippines

The Philippines has taken delivery of the first of 16 Polish-built S-70i Black Hawk transport helicopter it has on order, with another due to arrive in the next month.

www.defensenews.com

Well, well.. they actually really procured S-70i and not stuck in the procedural 'mud' as what happen to several other projects.

 

[Ananda]

Seems Leonardo will taking over some of the job. From this video, TAI will provide the helicopter without US Engine and System, then Leonardo will take over to assemble all US originates engine and systems.

The information coming from Max Defense, so supposedly quite reliable.

 

[pkcasimir]

Seems Leonardo will taking over some of the job. From this video, TAI will provide the helicopter without US Engine and System, then Leonardo will take over to assemble all US originates engine and systems.

The information coming from Max Defense, so supposedly quite reliable.

It is highly unlikely that the US Gov't will allow these shenanigans. There is a broad consensus in the US that the sanctions against Turkey are necessary for US security. I find it curious that Leonardo would jeopardize its relationship with the US Government over Turkish helicopters for the Philippines. Leonardo is in the process of an IPO for its very lucrative US DRS unit whose primary customer is the DOD and the last thing it wants is trouble with the US Government.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

It is highly unlikely that the US Gov't will allow these shenanigans. There is a broad consensus in the US that the sanctions against Turkey are necessary for US security. I find it curious that Leonardo would jeopardize its relationship with the US Government over Turkish helicopters for the Philippines. Leonardo is in the process of an IPO for its very lucrative US DRS unit whose primary customer is the DOD and the last thing it wants is trouble with the US Government.

Agusta/Leonardo will also only perform this construction after US-approval.
So its up to the US, do they want to earn some money by selling the US-made systems and engines to the Philippines, or is their attitude towards Turkey that negative that they refuse.

Its also possible the US simply refuse because they want to sell the AH-1 Cobra to the Philipines.

 

[OPSSG]

A cautious and incrementalist America

1. In Nov 2019, it was reported that Jordan donated 2 Bell AH-1 Cobra gunships to the the Philippines. IMHO, the Pinoys cannot afford the Bell AH-1Z Viper (without foreign financing).

2. At this point, I just want the Philippines to make up their minds. If they want to cancel the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the US, please go ahead.

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(a) I am guessing the greedy Pinoys are hoping to be gifted the recently retired AH-1W (by talking about cancelling the VFA again).​

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(b) In Oct 2020, the last two-bladed main rotor Whisky Cobra in US Marines service was succeeded by the four-bladed AH-1Z Viper. There is a large fleet of Whisky Cobras that could potentially be sold off as surplus to a foreign buyer, or donated via foreign military aid initiatives. Of course any sale, or gift for that matter, would have to be approved by the U.S. State Department.​

Its also possible the US simply refuse because they want to sell the AH-1 Cobra to the Philipines.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1323271312685568001

3. After 20 Jan 2021, I can count on Blinken (President-elect Biden's choice to be the next US Secretary of State) to: (i) be competent (by attending ASEAN meetings); and (ii) present a compassionate face (but to act as realists to protect American interests). This means putting a stop the T-129B sale (unless a reset with Turkey is planned).

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(a) I expect American concerns with human rights and humanitarian efforts to return to the foreground — there will be renewed bipartisan commitment to recentering human rights concerns in U.S. weapons transfers, as well as accountability for past misuse of weapons — resulting in 2021 tensions with Duterte.​

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(b) The Democratic centrists in Biden’s team believe in careful management of the post-Cold War order. They are cautious and incrementalist. They will stand up to China but will not want to define their strategy as a great power competition. Within Biden’s foreign policy team, there is an ongoing debate among Democratic centrists about the future of U.S. foreign policy; and many favor a foreign policy broadly consistent with that of President Barack Obama.​

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(c) They maintain high hopes for bilateral cooperation with Beijing on climate change, global public health, and other issues — which means space to trade away Pinoy interests, to gain in other areas.​

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(d) In July 2020, more than 30 progressive groups sent a letter to Biden urging him to select foreign policy personnel in a manner that would “challenge the institutions and groupthink that have led to a disastrous, overly-militarized, unilateral approach to foreign affairs” of past administrations. Kate Kizer, policy director for Win Without War, a progressive foreign policy organization that signed the letter, said the recent UAE arms sale is a good place to start. “President-elect Biden has promised to chart a different path than Trump, and we’re hopeful that he starts by immediately undoing as many of the just-notified sales to the UAE...”​

4. There is nothing independent about President Duterte’s foreign policy — he is just a Chinese puppet. His remark that he would scrap the VFA, if the US does not supply the Philippines with COVID-19 vaccines, by saying it was in line with his independent foreign policy, is a choice that I welcome. Duterte’s choice is policy until 30 June 2022, when his term ends.

5. It is time to drop dead weight until the end of Duterte’s term in the Philippines. That way, the Americans can focus their resources in 2021 and 2022 on real allies and partners. Biden’s incoming foreign policy team, under Antony Blinken, is unlikely to welcome the latest silly move by Duterte, in an attempt to force Blinken’s hand even before Biden’s team takes office.

 

[pkcasimir]

Agusta/Leonardo will also only perform this construction after US-approval.
So its up to the US, do they want to earn some money by selling the US-made systems and engines to the Philippines, or is their attitude towards Turkey that negative that they refuse.

Its also possible the US simply refuse because they want to sell the AH-1 Cobra to the Philipines.

What makes you think that the sale of some engines and avionics for a few helicopters to the Philippines will trump the US's fight with a NATO ally? The US has a $20 trillion GDP. The sale of a few engines doesn't even register in the large scheme of things and is insignificant compared to the Turkey/US/NATO issue.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

What makes you think that the sale of some engines and avionics for a few helicopters to the Philippines will trump the US's fight with a NATO ally? The US has a $20 trillion GDP. The sale of a few engines doesn't even register in the large scheme of things and is insignificant compared to the Turkey/US/NATO issue.

I also dont think the US will support this plan.
It is indeed a weird plan, if the AH-1 is too expensive, then its more logic that Agusta directly offer the A129 to the Philippines.
Even buying the Atlas CSH-2 or Kawasaki OH-1 makes more sense.
But in my opinion the most logic thing the Philippines can do with a limited budget is ordering more MD 500 or add the MH-6 or like OPSSG already said, receiving second hand AH-1Ws from the US.

4. There is nothing independent about President Duterte’s foreign policy — he is just a Chinese puppet. His remark that he would scrap the VFA, if the US does not supply the Philippines with COVID-19 vaccines, by saying it was in line with his independent foreign policy, is a choice that I welcome. Duterte’s choice is policy until 30 June 2022, when his term ends.

5. It is time to drop dead weight until the end of Duterte’s term in the Philippines. That way, the Americans can focus their resources in 2021 and 2022 on real allies and partners. Biden’s incoming foreign policy team, under Antony Blinken, is unlikely to welcome the latest silly move by Duterte, in an attempt to force Blinken’s hand even before Biden’s team takes office.

"President Duterte’s remark that he would scrap the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) if the US does not supply the Philippines with COVID-19 vaccines, saying it was in line with his independent foreign policy."

Blackmailing, threatening and demanding that he gets the vaccin free of charge from the US is indeed not the right way to show your loyalty as ally and friend.

Will he also demand free stuff from Sinovac? :-D