NZDF General discussion thread

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I think our stance on Nuclear is not aligned with where the world is heading from an energy standpoint. Renewable energy is not able to provide what is needed, Nuclear is the only game in town that can. I see a large increase in Nuclear plants in the short to medium term until Fusion reactors become available, 40 years +/-.
From memory of a long time ago, I seem to remember that the the Anti Nuke bill banned nuclear weapons and nuclear powered ships from our waters and territory. I seem to remember that there was no ban on land based nuclear reactors in NZ, for research or power production. Some one with a greater research ability than me can either confirm or rubbish this.
 
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So with the SOPV project being shelved, and the sale of the two IPVs - how is NZ's current surface fleet even remotely suitable?

Two light Frigates, two OPVs.

Hopefully there's more going on than meets the eye.
No one likes those who correct, but there are a couple missing from your list:

- HMNZS Canterbury (MRV)
- Aotearoa (AOR)
- Manawanui (Dive/Hydrographic)
- Hawea & Taupo (the remaining IPV's)

Ships & watercraft - New Zealand Defence Force (nzdf.mil.nz)
 
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KiwiRob

Well-Known Member
I disagree. The US, Mexico and France are the only serious players in the coming next 5 decades due to more stable demographics. I.e. Age groups we can sell to. Everywhere else is aging into lower productivity, less discretionary spending.
We will see Russia and China do increasingly dangerous and aggressive things simply besause of the desparation due to a current and worsening lack of 20 to 45 year olds.
The US doesn't have that same problem.
Except the facts don't back you up. The US and France have less 25-45 years olds as a percentage of their population than China has. Mexico is the only country with a young population, France, US and China have aging populations. The number of Chinese in the 20-45 year bracket dwarfs the combined total of the US , France and Mexico.

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@KiwiRob You have been here long enough to know the rules. Please provide a link to the source.

Ngatimozart
 
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Shanesworld

Well-Known Member
Except the facts don't back you up. The US and France have less 25-45 years olds as a percentage of their population than China has. Mexico is the only country with a young population, France, US and China have aging populations. The number of Chinese in the 20-45 year bracket dwarfs the combined total of the US , France and Mexico.

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Hi Rob, thanks for the graphics. You've challenged me abit here. So Im going back through my stuff to see how the original links i looked at compare but memory of france us and mexico match what you have put up. France and us will mot age gracefully but are less crap and more manageable than alot of other centres.
Chinas numbers though i think are fiction and dont match what i remember and considering theres been 35 years of the "one child" policy ithink points to that (i accept it wasnt quite strictly one child but still it severely altered things).
Basically I defer to Peter Zeihan and stratfor on this. His "changing character of war" presentation at fort benning was goid and i would recommend it if you have a spare hour(doubtful in these times).
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament and Arms Control Act is a cornerstone policy which no political party will ever touch.
That isn't cast in stone. At present it is politically convenient for the centre right and right wing parties to keep it current.
AUKUS makes it even more important for us to keep the New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament and Arms Control Act, we should be expanding it out to the 200nm zone not just the 12nm inshore zone. I'm no lefty but I don't believe anyone should have nuclear weapons, if we abandon this policy we will lose more than we gain.
Under what law will you be able to extend national law beyond the 12 mile limit? There is no international law which gives us that right.
There were a lot of very unhappy people in NZ when the govt capitulated and signed TPP, and a lot more people breathed a huge sigh of relief when it was canned, it was a bad agreement. CPTPP suspended 20 provisions the US insisted on. NZ is also a member of RCEP which came into force on the 1st January, this FTA also excluded the US, it also happens to be the largest FTA in history. I think we are doing alright without aligning ourselves with the US.
That's rubbish. It was the dial a mob. Jane Kelsey who hates any trade deal, the Labour Party, and left wing activists who ranted and raved against it because it was John Key's (then PM) deal and America was involved. It was the same with the flag referendum; because john Key sponsored it, all the left wing activists heavily politicised because they hated him and vilified him.
Thanks to @ngatimozart for the heads-up about the SOPV project being shelved on G.E.T.S. yesterday. A grim era for NZDF procurement is ahead. My post tonight on the subject. S.O.P.V. G.E.T.S. Sunk
No probs. My pleasure. I agree in that a grim era is ahead for NZDF procurement. The current National Party seems to have stuck its head in the sand as well and that's not a good sign. I would not be surprised to see the Seasprite replacement slid back to 2030 and we all know that they won't last that long. It's be back to the 2009 - 2012 situation with the five SH-2G(NZ) Seasprites.

The PRC population pyramid in @KiwiRob post above, shows an interesting distribution difference between males and females from the age 40 - 44 cohorts and below. There is a notice growth in the number of males to females and that is creating social problems with an increasing number of males unable to find female partners. The second point to note, is at the same point the pyramid starts to narrow with a slight bulge between the five to twenty year old groups. We also know that the PRC economy isn't doing as well as it should, even taking into account the COVID-19 pandemic, because of Xi Jinping's factional fighting with the Jiang Zemin faction. This is causing business collapses and uncertainty, resulting in foreign companies pulling out of the PRC and rising unemployment. So there's not enough money to go around and discretional spending has dropped. Many who have lost their jobs are the ones who would have bought NZ products. It doesn't help that Xi is also turning the country towards an inward looking repressive Maoist state, so we may not see the Chinese tourists and students here in large numbers like we used too. Increasing unemployment, the low numbers of young people in a culture that expects the young to look after the elderly in their dotage, a declining birth rate, an economy that's undergoing shock therapy, and an increased restriction on people within the PRC is creating tensions and pressure the the CCP may have problems dealing with.

This all means that our region becomes less stable than it already is and we aren't prepared at all. We will at some stage loose access to the PRC markets for one reason or the other, and it might be sooner rather than later. Look how quickly the balloon went up in the Ukraine. And that's another point. What if Putin decides to kick off WW3 with a demonstration of how big his old fella is by detonating a small nuke somewhere? That's WW3 probably on steroids. and what have we got? A bunch of perished shanghaies and stones of doubtful quality because of a series of leadership who were and are blinded by all that glitters, much like the dwarven folk of old when they saw gold.
 

KiwiRob

Well-Known Member
Except the facts don't back you up. The US and France have less 25-45 years olds as a percentage of their population than China has. Mexico is the only country with a young population, France, US and China have aging populations. The number of Chinese in the 20-45 year bracket dwarfs the combined total of the US , France and Mexico.

View attachment 49031


View attachment 49032

View attachment 49035



View attachment 49034
@KiwiRob You have been here long enough to know the rules. Please provide a link to the source.

Ngatimozart
The link is pretty clear it's on all the diagrams www.populationpyramid.net
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
That isn't cast in stone. At present it is politically convenient for the centre right and right wing parties to keep it current.

Under what law will you be able to extend national law beyond the 12 mile limit? There is no international law which gives us that right.

That's rubbish. It was the dial a mob. Jane Kelsey who hates any trade deal, the Labour Party, and left wing activists who ranted and raved against it because it was John Key's (then PM) deal and America was involved. It was the same with the flag referendum; because john Key sponsored it, all the left wing activists heavily politicised because they hated him and vilified him.

No probs. My pleasure. I agree in that a grim era is ahead for NZDF procurement. The current National Party seems to have stuck its head in the sand as well and that's not a good sign. I would not be surprised to see the Seasprite replacement slid back to 2030 and we all know that they won't last that long. It's be back to the 2009 - 2012 situation with the five SH-2G(NZ) Seasprites.

The PRC population pyramid in @KiwiRob post above, shows an interesting distribution difference between males and females from the age 40 - 44 cohorts and below. There is a notice growth in the number of males to females and that is creating social problems with an increasing number of males unable to find female partners. The second point to note, is at the same point the pyramid starts to narrow with a slight bulge between the five to twenty year old groups. We also know that the PRC economy isn't doing as well as it should, even taking into account the COVID-19 pandemic, because of Xi Jinping's factional fighting with the Jiang Zemin faction. This is causing business collapses and uncertainty, resulting in foreign companies pulling out of the PRC and rising unemployment. So there's not enough money to go around and discretional spending has dropped. Many who have lost their jobs are the ones who would have bought NZ products. It doesn't help that Xi is also turning the country towards an inward looking repressive Maoist state, so we may not see the Chinese tourists and students here in large numbers like we used too. Increasing unemployment, the low numbers of young people in a culture that expects the young to look after the elderly in their dotage, a declining birth rate, an economy that's undergoing shock therapy, and an increased restriction on people within the PRC is creating tensions and pressure the the CCP may have problems dealing with.

This all means that our region becomes less stable than it already is and we aren't prepared at all. We will at some stage loose access to the PRC markets for one reason or the other, and it might be sooner rather than later. Look how quickly the balloon went up in the Ukraine. And that's another point. What if Putin decides to kick off WW3 with a demonstration of how big his old fella is by detonating a small nuke somewhere? That's WW3 probably on steroids. and what have we got? A bunch of perished shanghaies and stones of doubtful quality because of a series of leadership who were and are blinded by all that glitters, much like the dwarven folk of old when they saw gold.
I noticed the male/female ratio as well. Not a surprising result due to Mao’s one child policy, female fetus abortion was higher. Also, who knows how accurate the Chinese numbers are? The other issues you mention will be cause for problems in China and the surrounding Asian region as well.
 

kiwipatriot69

Active Member
There's always a possibility Putin gets killed from within his political circle.A Russian Billionaire Alex Konankhim in recent weeks said this, even offering a million dollar bounty himself!

Russian Billionaires who influence the Kremlin have lost a lot of money of this war. Not just having their Lear jets and super yachts confiscated.

Will Nz continue their trade with China if Usa and the rest of the developed world decide to do sanctions on them too for supplying Russia with loans ect?

Can we substitute China with India and southeast Asia, other countries for our trade?
 
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Will Nz continue their trade with China if Usa and the rest of the developed world decide to do sanctions on them too for supplying Russia with loans ect?

Can we substitute China with India and southeast Asia, other countries for our trade?
There was a very good interview on RNZ this morning with Rabobank's Michael Avery. He highlights, in the event of secondary sanctions, the vulnerability of both New Zealand's financial and national security. I like the use of Trotsky's quote " You may not be interested in war, but war may be interested in you..."



Expert on economic fallout for NZ from Ukraine | RNZ
 

danonz

Member
There was a very good interview on RNZ this morning with Rabobank's Michael Avery. He highlights, in the event of secondary sanctions, the vulnerability of both New Zealand's financial and national security. I like the use of Trotsky's quote " You may not be interested in war, but war may be interested in you..."



Expert on economic fallout for NZ from Ukraine | RNZ
That was great -
brings the current world status in to focus i hope a lot of the public heard it.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
There's always a possibility Putin gets killed from within his political circle.A Russian Billionaire Alex Konankhim in recent weeks said this, even offering a million dollar bounty himself!

Russian Billionaires who influence the Kremlin have lost a lot of money of this war. Not just having their Lear jets and super yachts confiscated.

Will Nz continue their trade with China if Usa and the rest of the developed world decide to do sanctions on them too for supplying Russia with loans ect?

Can we substitute China with India and southeast Asia, other countries for our trade?
There was a very good interview on RNZ this morning with Rabobank's Michael Avery. He highlights, in the event of secondary sanctions, the vulnerability of both New Zealand's financial and national security. I like the use of Trotsky's quote " You may not be interested in war, but war may be interested in you..."

Expert on economic fallout for NZ from Ukraine | RNZ
This article from Newsroom offers a bit more on the subject. Possible Chinese Intervention in The War on Ukraine Should Ring Alarm Bells For NZ | Newsroom The real point is that if the likes of our FVEY partners, and the EU slap sanctions on the PRC for supporting Putin we have to go along whether we like it or not because if we continued to trade with the PRC after it had been sanctioned we would in turn be subject to sanctions. Not only that we would most likely be kicked out of FVEY and any dealings that we have with the US and probably the UK. There would not be any US FTA for decades. The Australians would disown us and never forgive us.
 

recce.k1

Well-Known Member
This article from Newsroom offers a bit more on the subject. Possible Chinese Intervention in The War on Ukraine Should Ring Alarm Bells For NZ | Newsroom The real point is that if the likes of our FVEY partners, and the EU slap sanctions on the PRC for supporting Putin we have to go along whether we like it or not because if we continued to trade with the PRC after it had been sanctioned we would in turn be subject to sanctions. Not only that we would most likely be kicked out of FVEY and any dealings that we have with the US and probably the UK. There would not be any US FTA for decades. The Australians would disown us and never forgive us.
I get what you are saying i.e. if NZ continued to trade (with China), although to be fair NZ's trade with China pales into (near) insignificance compared with many other allied countries including other FVEY nations. It would be interesting to know (not that we would be told) what would be the trigger points for the other FVEY nations (or US allied nations eg EU, Japan, South Korea, Singapore etc) if they did enact a trade ban (both exports and imports) because if they did how badly would their economies be impacted?

In this wiki article (2018 figures) on the 20th largest trading partners of China, NZ doesn't even make the top 20. In this 2019 list of the top 10 trading nations, these 10 countries are trading over hundreds of billions ($US) both ways. Some 2021 figures.

But I get your point, NZ's percentage of trade (reliance) is much higher relative to many other nations so any sanctions would have a profound effect on NZ. Yes NZ is ramping up trade negotiations with other nations (FTA's etc) to get around this issue but these efforts can take years (even decades).

However if we reach the stage where nations are starting to apply sanctions to China (because of Russia/Ukraine situation) then the world could be in a very grim place (threat of wider conflict) and one would assume "normal" trade in and out of China would then be disrupted anyway. So we lose anyway, best we prepare for the worse both economically (eg better resiliance and self-reliance) and militarily!
 

Teal

Member
There was a very good interview on RNZ this morning with Rabobank's Michael Avery. He highlights, in the event of secondary sanctions, the vulnerability of both New Zealand's financial and national security. I like the use of Trotsky's quote " You may not be interested in war, but war may be interested in you..."



Expert on economic fallout for NZ from Ukraine | RNZ
If this is not picked up by the Pollies and Defence Chiefs , listened too and publicly acknowledged , then we are in trouble. The Defence Chiefs silence is deffening , esp when you take into account the cancelling/defering of the SOPV project.
 

KiwiRob

Well-Known Member
This article from Newsroom offers a bit more on the subject. Possible Chinese Intervention in The War on Ukraine Should Ring Alarm Bells For NZ | Newsroom The real point is that if the likes of our FVEY partners, and the EU slap sanctions on the PRC for supporting Putin we have to go along whether we like it or not because if we continued to trade with the PRC after it had been sanctioned we would in turn be subject to sanctions. Not only that we would most likely be kicked out of FVEY and any dealings that we have with the US and probably the UK. There would not be any US FTA for decades. The Australians would disown us and never forgive us.
Slapping sanctions on Russia is one thing but slapping sanctions on China would be akin to slapping sanctions on the entire world. For example every electronic product you buy will be either made in China or use components made in China, chances are it will also be transported on a Chinese owned and operated vessel. If you did try to manufacture outside of China the cost would be astronomical and take years, The US and EU would need to set up new production lines, find and train staff, set up a supply chains for all the components needed before assembly. That's just electronics then there's everything else. China is the worlds largest market for luxury goods, it's the largest market for German cars, you think the EU would be happy crashing two of there biggest industries? Like it or not China is the worlds manufacturing hub and one of its largest consumer markets, they can do what we can no longer do at a price we couldn't do it for. Also Trump tried started a trade war with China and lost.
 
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kiwipatriot69

Active Member
Slapping sanctions on Russia is one thing but slapping sanctions on China would be akin to slapping sanctions on the entire world. For example every electronic product you buy will be either made in China or use components made in China, chances are it will also be transported on a Chinese owned and operated vessel. If you did try to manufacture outside of China the cost would be astronomical and take years, The US and EU would need to set up new production lines, find and train staff, set up a supply chains for all the components needed before assembly. That's just electronics then there's everything else. China is the worlds largest market for luxury goods, it's the largest market for German cars, you think the EU would be happy crashing two of there biggest industries? Like it or not China is the worlds manufacturing hub and one of its largest consumer markets, they can do what we can no longer do at a price we couldn't do it for. Also Trump tried started a trade war with China and lost.

Then what would be the outcome of China backing Russia, do you think the west including USA would hesitate in sanctioning them?
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Slapping sanctions on Russia is one thing but slapping sanctions on China would be akin to slapping sanctions on the entire world. For example every electronic product you buy will be either made in China or use components made in China, chances are it will also be transported on a Chinese owned and operated vessel. If you did try to manufacture outside of China the cost would be astronomical and take years, The US and EU would need to set up new production lines, find and train staff, set up a supply chains for all the components needed before assembly. That's just electronics then there's everything else. China is the worlds largest market for luxury goods, it's the largest market for German cars, you think the EU would be happy crashing two of there biggest industries? Like it or not China is the worlds manufacturing hub and one of its largest consumer markets, they can do what we can no longer do at a price we couldn't do it for. Also Trump tried started a trade war with China and lost.
Well that's changing. Foreign owned electronics manufacturing companies are pulling out of the PRC and setting up elsewhere. The PRC doesn't manufacture its own chips and that's done in Taiwan and the US. The Taiwanese recently offered to help Lithuanian set up a chip manufacturing plant. WRT to other products, the political will is there to sanction other nations who support Russia. If the PRC decides to support Russia then it will be sanctioned and it may find that countries will ignore the One China policy and start recognising Taiwan as the Republic of China or the Republic of Taiwan or whatever. If that happens, that's 50 years of CCP / PRC diplomacy chucked out, a huge set back, a very significant loss of face, and whoever is in charge at the time will be for the high jump CCP style.

The PRC economy isn't performing like it was and the people buying the luxury products are not as numerous as they once were. The screws are being tightened and unemployment has risen with aforementioned companies closing their PRC based plants and pulling out, as well as other foreign businesses. The PRC real estate development sector has taken a huge hit with development companies defaulting on loans and / or going under because they're unable to obtain finance. Some cities and urban authorities are bankrupt and aren't taking on new staff with current staff being unpaid. It's not just remote rural regions but some large important urban areas. A lot of the unemployed are middle class earners who bought luxury goods and new apartments in high rises that were being developed. Also Xi Jinping is turning the country inward and backwards towards a Maoist inward focussed state that will be insulated from any outside ideas and thought. Think the tail end of the Cultural Revolution with everyone running around reading their "Little Read Book of Quotations of Chairman Mao", except it will be the Red app of Quotations, Thoughts and Guidance of Chairman Xi."

My sources are varied and are from two YouTube Channels, Lei's Real Talk, and China Insights, Prof Anne-Marie Brady on Twitter, the South China Morning Post but after the CCP HK take over in 2020 the institution of the PRC National Security law there I treat it with some caution.
Then what would be the outcome of China backing Russia, do you think the west including USA would hesitate in sanctioning them?
I don't think that they would have any hesitation at all.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
If this is not picked up by the Pollies and Defence Chiefs , listened too and publicly acknowledged , then we are in trouble. The Defence Chiefs silence is deffening , esp when you take into account the cancelling/defering of the SOPV project.
Unfortunately the Defence Chiefs are hamstrung because if they open their mouths, they will be blacklisted from any further promotion within Defence and after they retire any further government work. We have Uncle Helen Clark to thank for that when she removed the CDF, CN, CA, & CAF independence by having them made subject to the SSC, State Services Commission, politicising the process The SSC now makes their appointments subject to government approval. It used to be that their appointments were made by the Governor General on government recommendation.
 
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