NZDF General discussion thread

[John Fedup]

The US may not have a demographic problem but they have other issues like debt and dysfunctional government. India might be a better long term opportunity for NZ and yes, an argument that India has the latter problem is somewhat valid.

 

[Shanesworld]

The US may not have a demographic problem but they have other issues like debt and dysfunctional government. India might be a better long term opportunity for NZ and yes, an argument that India has the latter problem is somewhat valid.

Vety true, but they also have the world reserve currency, petro dollar, good chunk of swift, hollywood, the most economical transport network, great topography and a global navy. The only thing that can tip that apple cart is internal politics which after the last election is all too possible.

 

[Gracie1234]

Economics is hugely important for national security. I think we need to diversify so we are not beholden to any one country but can make choices. A FTA with the USA would be advantageous but other markets are important. China will be constrained by an ageing population and a reduction in population. With the collapse of their property sector, they will need to restructure. This will get worse for them before it gets better. The USA will not have such constraints.
NZ needs to focus on increasing our productivity and increasing our technology sector while also securing access to our resources within the EEZ and Ross dependency.
The EU FTA will be important but closer to home we have large opportunities. Indonesia is projected to go from the 16th to the 8th largest economy in the world by 2040. This country does not seem to get the focus it should by MFAT, now is the time to act.
In terms of world stability, i believe that the response to Ukraine by the EU and others would have created a huge reassessment in China on the possible responses to its 'plans'. The EU has shown that it can unite, has made a decision to increase defence capabilities and are willing to suffer economically to make their point. I believe this will increase the pressure on NZ to increase our defence capabilities as it will be highlighted what the EU has recently done. We are now even more of an outlier.
While back home we are suffering from poor economic management, the impact of all of the COVID money. In short, we have eaten too much candy and now are feeling ill. We have all been there. Candy was needed.

 

[Gracie1234]

The US may not have a demographic problem but they have other issues like debt and dysfunctional government. India might be a better long term opportunity for NZ and yes, an argument that India has the latter problem is somewhat valid.

I agree India is a great market for us, but we recently both agreed that progress has not been made and will not be made soon. It is a very hard market to operate in. Fonterra has just announced it was closing it's operations there. India is the world's largest dairy market. We will not get access there without doing a lot more for India and I am not sure we have the size to meet their request.

 

[Gooey]

Gents, very interesting discussions thank you.

In terms of disinvestment (if that is an actual word), anything that encourages NZ to move away from a CCP orbit is vital. If I may be global in scope, the NZ Business Crack-like addition to unbalanced trade with China is an issue for NZ security due to over-reliance with a known dictatorship. Even Minister Mahuta acknowledges this and has warned NZ Bus to move on.

WRT our Anti-Nuclear policy, I opinion that this should be redrafted due to our changing strategic environment. The increasing RAN SSN use will only make this essential to support an Ally and something that was never envisioned when the original legislation was written in the mid-1980s.

Given our nation's totally shameful response to the Ukraine situation in terms of providing weapons, and the NZG inability to make a collective National Security approach, I can only see further denial and child-like analysis from the Pollies and people of this once great land.

 

[John Fedup]

Gents, very interesting discussions thank you.

In terms of disinvestment (if that is an actual word), anything that encourages NZ to move away from a CCP orbit is vital. If I may be global in scope, the NZ Business Crack-like addition to unbalanced trade with China is an issue for NZ security due to over-reliance with a known dictatorship. Even Minister Mahuta acknowledges this and has warned NZ Bus to move on.

WRT our Anti-Nuclear policy, I opinion that this should be redrafted due to our changing strategic environment. The increasing RAN SSN use will only make this essential to support an Ally and something that was never envisioned when the original legislation was written in the mid-1980s.

Given our nation's totally shameful response to the Ukraine situation in terms of providing weapons, and the NZG inability to make a collective National Security approach, I can only see further denial and child-like analysis from the Pollies and people of this once great land.

Sadly, NZ has some company in the shameful response camp. Jacinda and junior, what a surprise!

 

[Gracie1234]

I think our stance on Nuclear is not aligned with where the world is heading from an energy standpoint. Renewable energy is not able to provide what is needed, Nuclear is the only game in town that can. I see a large increase in Nuclear plants in the short to medium term until Fusion reactors become available, 40 years +/-.

 

[kiwipatriot69]

I would not hold my breath, waiting for a NZG response to the current down turn in the world strategic situation. There will be studies, committee's and consultation all designed to take up as much time as possible so the government does not have to do anything while saying they are waiting for the results of this or that study and when it arrives they will have it reviewed to make sure that it is correct. This will take up so much time that they will say that they are committed to change but the first report is now out of date so we will have to do it all again. They will be hoping that with time it will all go away.

Has the govt been taking their cues on defence from Yes Minister tv series?

 

[kiwipatriot69]

I think our stance on Nuclear is not aligned with where the world is heading from an energy standpoint. Renewable energy is not able to provide what is needed, Nuclear is the only game in town that can. I see a large increase in Nuclear plants in the short to medium term until Fusion reactors become available, 40 years +/-.

Given the fact Nz recent history with earthquakes, and myself being in Christchurch during most of them, I wouldn't be too keen on a nuclear reactor in our backyard.

Fukushima reactor comes to mind for starters.Do we even have a contingency plan for nuclear fallout on top of a earthquake and tsunami?

 

[danonz]

Given the fact Nz recent history with earthquakes, and myself being in Christchurch during most of them, I wouldn't be too keen on a nuclear reactor in our backyard.

Fukushima reactor comes to mind for starters.Do we even have a contingency plan for nuclear fallout on top of a earthquake and tsunami?

Allowing nuclear vessels in NZ waters is not the same as have nuclear power plants and should not be considered the same.
Its not economically feasible for NZ to use nuclear power, other countries have huge demand and can use it - or their national grids are linked to other counties where they can sell excess generation.

While there is slim chance they will change the rules for nuclear powered vessels, chances of nuclear power plants being built are a lot less.

 

[danonz]

edit

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Allowing nuclear vessels in NZ waters is not the same as have nuclear power plants and should not be considered the same.
Its not economically feasible for NZ to use nuclear power, other countries have huge demand and can use it - or thier national grids are linked to other counties where they can sell excess generation.

While there is slim chance they will change the rules for nuclear powered vessels, chances of similar power plants are a lot less.

Agreed on occasionally visting Nuclear powered or capable ships .

 

[Gracie1234]

Given the fact Nz recent history with earthquakes, and myself being in Christchurch during most of them, I wouldn't be too keen on a nuclear reactor in our backyard.

Fukushima reactor comes to mind for starters.Do we even have a contingency plan for nuclear fallout on top of a earthquake and tsunami?

NZ is lucky in terms of we have an abundance of renewable energy sources, most other countries are not that lucky. I would not see us going nuclear, but others will need to if they wish to remove carbon from their energy mix. The Russian sanctions will accelerate this move.
The potential impact of a nuclear incident needs to be weight up against the damage of continuing to use fossil fuels for energy. A question NZ will not need to answer but other countries will.

 

[Stuart M]

NZ is lucky in terms of we have an abundance of renewable energy sources, most other countries are not that lucky. I would not see us going nuclear, but others will need to if they wish to remove carbon from their energy mix. The Russian sanctions will accelerate this move.
The potential impact of a nuclear incident needs to be weight up against the damage of continuing to use fossil fuels for energy. A question NZ will not need to answer but other countries will.

Indeed. In any event, although NZ will probably never use nuclear generated energy, NZs visceral aversion to it in any form anywhere, as a matter of principle, is somewhat outmoded. Nuclear power and its safety standards and design is vastly improved compared to first and second generation reactors and naval standards have always been extremely good, so i really don't see the need for the ban on nuclear powered vessels.

In this respect the ban on nuclear powered vessels, with Australia commitment to SSN's in mind, could be a distinct liability as the world returns to hostile great power politics, and NZ will in all probability have to take on a more realistic stance on defence of the South Pacific. What form that stance takes I leave to others, but I would think that the return of air strike, a larger number of appropriately kitted out frigates should be part of that and an army that can sustain higher levels of combat intensity.

As can be seen from the following comments from Russia on Finland/Swedish veiws on joining NATO

"Military and political consequences may follow if the two countries join the pact, Sergei Belyaev, director of the Second European Department of Russia’s foreign ministry, told the state-owned news agency Interfax. Their non-participation in NATO is “an important factor in ensuring security and stability in northern Europe,” he said. "
Russian Official Warns Finland, Sweden Against Joining NATO - Bloomberg

I have no doubt that NZ's will be facing the same threats should other dictatorships decide that NZ's "Independent Foreign policy" is a little too independent for their tastes.

 

[Gracie1234]

The likely impact of that statement from Russia is to push the countries closer to Nato. It is interesting as they are EU members and as such are members of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) which includes collective self-defence.

 

[kiwipatriot69]

NZ is lucky in terms of we have an abundance of renewable energy sources, most other countries are not that lucky. I would not see us going nuclear, but others will need to if they wish to remove carbon from their energy mix. The Russian sanctions will accelerate this move.
The potential impact of a nuclear incident needs to be weight up against the damage of continuing to use fossil fuels for energy. A question NZ will not need to answer but other countries will.

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Given how much the impact of fossil fuel prices at the pump and consumer goods due to wars not just in Ukraine but in the past in Middle East I would hope Nz is looking at investing more in green energy solutions for that.

 

[Stuart M]

The likely impact of that statement from Russia is to push the countries closer to Nato. It is interesting as they are EU members and as such are members of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) which includes collective self-defence.

I think the CDSP is not a straightforward as Article 5 NATO, like many things EU related, its conditional:

"Decisions relating to the CSDP are taken by the Council of the European Union by unanimity. However, there are some exceptions like for instance when the Council adopts some decisions implementing an EU decision or for some decisions relating to the European Defence Agency (EDA) and permanent structured cooperation (PESCO), where decisions are taken by qualified majority voting."

Glossary of summaries - EUR-Lex (europa.eu)

This is probably why Finland and Sweden are starting to look at NATO, at least as far as popular sentiment is concerned, its more of a sure thing.

 

[kiwipatriot69]

I think the CDSP is not a straightforward as Article 5 NATO, like many things EU related, its conditional:

"Decisions relating to the CSDP are taken by the Council of the European Union by unanimity. However, there are some exceptions like for instance when the Council adopts some decisions implementing an EU decision or for some decisions relating to the European Defence Agency (EDA) and permanent structured cooperation (PESCO), where decisions are taken by qualified majority voting."

Glossary of summaries - EUR-Lex (europa.eu)

This is probably why Finland and Sweden are starting to look at NATO, at least as far as popular sentiment is concerned, its more of a sure thing.

Yeah. I have freinds in czech republic now. Czech republic , Slovenia, and Ukraine leader Zelenski are meeting today there for some reason according to him.

 

[danonz]

At least NZ made the map for international community even if it was an insult.



@danonz You have been here long enough to know the rules. Please provide a link to the map source.

Ngatimozart,