NZDF General discussion thread

milliGal

Member
For others to believe NZ is able to chart an independent foreign policy, your country must have some limited military capability to be independent.

As a 2 frigate navy, the country has less than a limited capability to patrol its waters. I wish NZDF good luck to generate the needed patrols, when a maritime militia swarm arrives.

If NZDF is going to be resourced to buy a 5th or 6th P-8A and the replacement frigate build plan brought forward to 2025-2028 (along with a concurrent plan to get a 4th Frigate in the mid-term), then you can really say that the NZ Government is serious about charting an independent path.

What is an alternate way of looking at current NZ government moves? Do we consider it as NZ government’s way of giving lip service (and concurrent appeasement)?
I agree completely.

Unfortunately our new defence minister does not seem to be doing much.
 
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Xthenaki

Active Member
I agree completely.

Unfortunately our new defence minister does not seem to be doing much.
WHAT Defence Minister???. Havent heard from that Ministry since Ron Mark left last year. Maybe the present minister (Cannot even recall his name) has become health attache and only associates with defence personal on isolation containment at our borders
 

kiwi in exile

Active Member
If NZDF is going to be resourced to buy a 5th or 6th P-8A and the replacement frigate build plan brought forward to 2025-2028 (along with a concurrent plan to get a 4th Frigate in the mid-term), then you can really say that the NZ Government is serious about charting an independent path.
very unlikely to happen.

The use of the term 'appeasment' reminds me of another context. I have avoided making that historical comparison. But given the annexation of territory and the persecution of religious minoity, the genocide of their culture in camps, it seems appropriate.

Re charting an independant course- the reason I don't believe it is i dont think our PM, foreign minister and def min have the skills required to lead NZ in this way- they havn't demonstrated it so far. At present "charting and independent course' is just a way of making sitting on the fence and crossing your fingers and hedging your bets sound like a clever move. We should show more explicit vocal support to Australia. And should put up our hand to be Quad-plus. After all are Quad values not our values. I fear if things get worse we find ourselves alone, and on the worng side of history.
 
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Gibbo

Active Member
WHAT Defence Minister???. Havent heard from that Ministry since Ron Mark left last year. Maybe the present minister (Cannot even recall his name) has become health attache and only associates with defence personal on isolation containment at our borders
Too right, when the new DefMin was appointed I was underwhelmed but prepared to give him a chance to prove himself.... to date I'm not aware of a single instance where he's stepped up to the podium on defence matters of any significance... it's what he 's not saying that worries me. As a relative lightweight I dare say he's just a puppet on strings!

As regards to NZ's stance on China...this is interesting reading I hadn't seen yet: Nanaia Mahuta likens NZ-China relations to taniwha and dragon - NZ Herald

You know I have slightly different slant on this...but admittedly it's only a gut-feel on my part! I actually don't believe they are naive at all, frankly it would be almost impossible for any Govt to be totally unaware or ignorant of the chasm between China & our Allies/Friends opening up at the alarming rate at which it is doing so! The NZ Govt has seen just what China will do to Australian trade and they know, most likely with total clarity, what a similar move against NZ would look like... we have a shed-load more to lose in terms of GDP than Oz if the same occurs... and it likely will do at some point!

However fairly soon NZ is indeed likely to have to make a call on one side or the other... and they'll know that - realistically I can't see the Govt would be idiotic enough to come down on China's side... NZer's would not tolerate that at a socio-political level! We can see the Oz Govt already has a short-fuse with us...501 deportees, NZer's in Oz getting no more than other foreigners anymore etc... and the Oz Govt will have made plenty of noises behind closed doors.. but the reasons for that started at least 20 years before Jacindarella got her fairy wand!

The call by NZ not to expand 5eyes looks to be is largely about moving into trade & foreign affairs... so the posture again seems to be all about trying to, for now, protect the trade relationship. This Govt aren't actually that stupid that they really think 5eyes won't go ahead with a new remit and potentially dump NZ if they need to! They're trying to delicately tip-toe their way thru an increasingly hopeless situation and they're doing what the Chinese Govt does best... 'spin'.

Jesus...hope I'm right!
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Too right, when the new DefMin was appointed I was underwhelmed but prepared to give him a chance to prove himself.... to date I'm not aware of a single instance where he's stepped up to the podium on defence matters of any significance... it's what he 's not saying that worries me. As a relative lightweight I dare say he's just a puppet on strings!

As regards to NZ's stance on China...this is interesting reading I hadn't seen yet: Nanaia Mahuta likens NZ-China relations to taniwha and dragon - NZ Herald

You know I have slightly different slant on this...but admittedly it's only a gut-feel on my part! I actually don't believe they are naive at all, frankly it would be almost impossible for any Govt to be totally unaware or ignorant of the chasm between China & our Allies/Friends opening up at the alarming rate at which it is doing so! The NZ Govt has seen just what China will do to Australian trade and they know, most likely with total clarity, what a similar move against NZ would look like... we have a shed-load more to lose in terms of GDP than Oz if the same occurs... and it likely will do at some point!

However fairly soon NZ is indeed likely to have to make a call on one side or the other... and they'll know that - realistically I can't see the Govt would be idiotic enough to come down on China's side... NZer's would not tolerate that at a socio-political level! We can see the Oz Govt already has a short-fuse with us...501 deportees, NZer's in Oz getting no more than other foreigners anymore etc... and the Oz Govt will have made plenty of noises behind closed doors.. but the reasons for that started at least 20 years before Jacindarella got her fairy wand!

The call by NZ not to expand 5eyes looks to be is largely about moving into trade & foreign affairs... so the posture again seems to be all about trying to, for now, protect the trade relationship. This Govt aren't actually that stupid that they really think 5eyes won't go ahead with a new remit and potentially dump NZ if they need to! They're trying to delicately tip-toe their way thru an increasingly hopeless situation and they're doing what the Chinese Govt does best... 'spin'.

Jesus...hope I'm right!
I would like to think that they aren't naive, but their form since 2017 suggests to me otherwise. Actually I am not sure if naivety is the right term. They can't seem to get the basics right, like basic governance management and organisation, planning, and general management skills seem to be lacking. Then if they actually do get moving and do something, they appear to cut corners and that results in larger messes.

If that is the type of attitude that they will take into foreign affairs, defence and security, then we do have a problem. Now I don't know Ms Mahuta; she could be a really well organised person and might turn out to be a good Foreign Minister, but if the Princess and Robertson are cavalier about how they work, then Ms Mahuta could be pushing the messy brown stuff uphill.

Regarding our DEFMIN who's MIA, he requested the role and has had it for six months. All he appears to have done is basically window dressing and nothing of substance. However the DWP is being worked on at the moment and IIRC May is the time the first draft is supposed to be formalised. I can't remember it's then or later that public consultation is supposed to happen.

Given the current government's attitude towards defence I am not holding my breath and waiting in hope. I think that we will have to wait and see what the documentation released with the public consultation says.

I would go along with some of what my friend @OPSSG said in his post above, but it is my belief that six P-8A, four FFG, and a minimum of six corvettes are required. That's as well as the EMAC and the SOPV (of which we should have two, preferably three). Yes it's expensive but because of all the penny pinching and stinginess because of the holy dogma of maximum austerity, we are now required to pay the price of that false God.
 

Shanesworld

Active Member
I would like to think that they aren't naive, but their form since 2017 suggests to me otherwise. Actually I am not sure if naivety is the right term. They can't seem to get the basics right, like basic governance management and organisation, planning, and general management skills seem to be lacking. Then if they actually do get moving and do something, they appear to cut corners and that results in larger messes.

If that is the type of attitude that they will take into foreign affairs, defence and security, then we do have a problem. Now I don't know Ms Mahuta; she could be a really well organised person and might turn out to be a good Foreign Minister, but if the Princess and Robertson are cavalier about how they work, then Ms Mahuta could be pushing the messy brown stuff uphill.

Regarding our DEFMIN who's MIA, he requested the role and has had it for six months. All he appears to have done is basically window dressing and nothing of substance. However the DWP is being worked on at the moment and IIRC May is the time the first draft is supposed to be formalised. I can't remember it's then or later that public consultation is supposed to happen.

Given the current government's attitude towards defence I am not holding my breath and waiting in hope. I think that we will have to wait and see what the documentation released with the public consultation says.

I would go along with some of what my friend @OPSSG said in his post above, but it is my belief that six P-8A, four FFG, and a minimum of six corvettes are required. That's as well as the EMAC and the SOPV (of which we should have two, preferably three). Yes it's expensive but because of all the penny pinching and stinginess because of the holy dogma of maximum austerity, we are now required to pay the price of that false God.
As part of the generals militia I've seen a few associate ministers turn up for a day and a night for an exercise. I can't think of names specifically but they all seemed to use defence as a another rung on a ladder to climb rather than a serious portfolio. The ministers themselves - only met Ron Mark. He was good.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
This is the link to Foreign Minister Mahuta's speech: The Taniwha and The Dragon. To be fair she does call the PRC out in diplospeak about the debt trap diplomacy, treatment of workers and minorities, how it treats its partners and the behaviour expectations NZ has of it as a permanent member of the UNSC. So maybe this government is coming around to the idea that the PRC isn't a benevolent power. The other thing to note is the message to NZ firms to diversify into other markets.
I wonder if the PPA approach of the Italians would be the way to go. Light light plus and full for a class of damen x-overs.
Regardless I think we are to little too late.
Maybe but first of all sit down with a map / chart and map out our AOMI (Areas Of Maritime Interest). From there start measuring distances required to be covered and then look for platforms that have the range AND capability to safely sail the seas encountered within that area.
As part of the generals militia I've seen a few associate ministers turn up for a day and a night for an exercise. I can't think of names specifically but they all seemed to use defence as a another rung on a ladder to climb rather than a serious portfolio. The ministers themselves - only met Ron Mark. He was good.
Yes Ron was one of the best DEFMIN that we had in a long time.
 

Gibbo

Active Member

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Without a doubt, and not just the best, but the best by a considerable degree! As for our current DefMin, given the Govt has just announced the biggest health system shake-up in decades he's clearly going to be extremely busy in his associate health portfolio therefore I'd suggest he steps aside from Defence.. Government announces radical plan to centralise healthcare, will abolish DHBs
OT. Well I have said for years to get rid of the DHBs and I am pleased to see that the role of the MOH is to be drastically reduced. However the devil is in the detail and implementation and given it's record since the 2017 election, the current government will be pushing an incredibly large amount of the brown smelly stuff uphill with the pointy end of a toothpick in order to get the implementation close to right.
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Without a doubt, and not just the best, but the best by a considerable degree! As for our current DefMin, given the Govt has just announced the biggest health system shake-up in decades he's clearly going to be extremely busy in his associate health portfolio therefore I'd suggest he steps aside from Defence.. Government announces radical plan to centralise healthcare, will abolish DHBs
This is very similar to what Health Minister Andrew’s, now Premier, did in the state of Victoria and during COVID it has proven to be a complete Lemon when cf NSW which retained its regional Health Centres.
Good luck with it, I know which system I would prefer to be under.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The media have picked up on Australian reaction to Mahuta's speech, and if they are to be believed, the NZG didn't have the courtesy to inform the Australian government beforehand of the NZG viewpoint. That is not good and speaks of arrogance and lack of consideration on the part of the NZG. Of course this could be a genuine mistake by an inexperienced foreign minister, bu the PM, DPMC, and MFAT certainly should have advised prior notification.


The NZG has finally issued somewhat late criticism of the WHO COVID-19 report. It appears that this current government is doing whatever it can to avoid being seen as a friend of the US and Australia.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Washington Examiner report on NZ's reaction to the PRC shenanigans. This article was written after her Auckland speech last Monday. It's pretty straight to the point.

 

Gibbo

Active Member
Washington Examiner report on NZ's reaction to the PRC shenanigans. This article was written after her Auckland speech last Monday. It's pretty straight to the point.

You know if we got a 'James Bond' about it...it's not implausible that NZ's public stand is in fact a choreographed move by the 5eyes collective... make NZ into an apparent weak point in the alliance that the Chinese Govt will clearly look to exploit... but in doing so they fall into a honey-trap set by 5eyes!

Maybe I've watched too many 007 movie... but read the last paragraph of the Washington Examiner's story again...
“It's one of the little-known facts of the intelligence community, that there's diplomacy-diplomacy, and then there's intelligence-diplomacy,” Harding said. “A lot of times, the various foreign ministries of all these countries will come out and say things that they need to say for some other piece of the agenda, but despite that, the intelligence relationships stay very strong.”
 
I think i agree with you Gibbo. It could be that NZ is playing the 'good cop', so that we can make suggestions that would be rejected if it came from another 'stronger' 5 eyes partner. NZ being in the same position as Australia would not benefit anyone. We do add little hard power but reasonable levels of soft power to the group.
Similar to our role in talking to North Korea on denuclearisation, where our goal was the same but our approach was different.
It also provides hope to China that they can create a better relationship with other western countries and we can help them with this.
 

oldsig127

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I think i agree with you Gibbo. It could be that NZ is playing the 'good cop', so that we can make suggestions that would be rejected if it came from another 'stronger' 5 eyes partner. NZ being in the same position as Australia would not benefit anyone. We do add little hard power but reasonable levels of soft power to the group.
Similar to our role in talking to North Korea on denuclearisation, where our goal was the same but our approach was different.
It also provides hope to China that they can create a better relationship with other western countries and we can help them with this.
I expect it will be just as successful as your efforts to denuclearise North Korea.

oldsig
 

Gibbo

Active Member
I expect it will be just as successful as your efforts to denuclearise North Korea.

oldsig
LOL... yeah I reckon! :) One things for sure....NZ Govt has just stepped behind the bike-shed & is about to get the sh*t kicked out of it by our closest neighbour & their mates unless Jacinderella can do some mighty-fine talking her way out of this! Even better... it's all over the media & finally the NZ media are bothering to put security concerns front & centre of the headlines...will make a lot of sleep-walking kiwis wake up! o_O
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
Alexander Gillespie is a Professor of Law at the University of Waikato. He recently wrote a piece for The Conversation discussing NZ policy towards the PRC and it's not very flattering. In fact he called it empty and says that it's appeasement.

It is good to see that Al is writing OpEd columns for the MSM picked up by the Herald as frankly the complete tiresome tosh written by their staff journalists is nothing more than star glazed fawning straight from the lips of 9th floor of the the Beehive spin doctors. He needs to be on the screens and the column of our MSM much more. At least to put some genuine intelligence into what passes as debate these days.

I knew Al years ago and he is a solid guy with a significant legal brain and is globally respected in the Armed Conflict and Humanitarian Law discipline.
 
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