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NZDF General discussion thread

Discussion in 'Geostrategic Issues' started by NZLAV, Apr 14, 2007.

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  1. Catalina

    Catalina Member

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    I note with interest the above comment was written 12 years ago. Oh what a difference a few short years make. As the ultimate Mr. Bond, Sean Connery, was fond of saying, 'Never say never again'...

    In that time Communist China has moved from Deng's 韬光养晦, hide our capabilities and bide our time, national strategy to Xi's implementation of the polar opposite 海洋强国 national strategy to become a Great Maritime Nation.

    The Peoples Liberation Army Navy now has three aircraft carriers in service or under construction. Plans exist for at least three more. That is at least six carrier battle groups. The PRC's surface fleet, submarine fleet, and long range naval aviation forces are expanding in reach, quality, size, and ambition as the CCP tightens control and stifles dissent throughout its empire.

    In another 12 years who can say to what limits PRC expansion will have reached but, having lived 9 years in our South Pacific Island neighbouring countries and witnessed first hand the take over of their political elites in three of New Zealand's nearest neighbours, it is almost certain that the Gonganbu, the Ministry of State Security, (MSS), Communist China's combined Gestapo and KGB, will have secured basing rights for elements of the PLA Navy and PLA Air Force in our South West Pacific...
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2019
  2. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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  3. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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  4. RegR

    RegR Active Member

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  5. htbrst

    htbrst Active Member

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  6. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    No, the hui was in Auckland. He was on an E-4B, which wouldn't get into Wellington. QANTAS used to fly the B747-SP in and out of Wellington on regular schedules, which was quite impressive to watch :D
     
  7. RegR

    RegR Active Member

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    Haha, didi'nt actually think he came down for beervana, could have been the Don instead, was a pretty incognito version....
     
  8. 40 deg south

    40 deg south Well-Known Member

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    Publications | Ministry of Defence Website

    The 2018 Major Projects Report has just been released.

    I haven't had much of a look yet, but it will provide some financial details on the big-ticket items underway in 2018.
     
  9. milliGal

    milliGal Member

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    Cabinet documents related to the the DCP19 have been released, and they provide some interesting additional insight into a few acquisition projects.

    It seems a range of capability plans were considered, with the selected option designed to have enhanced projection and sustainment into the pacific. Most of the details of the alternative plans have been redacted, but as they are all supposedly within the $20B capital expenditure window I think we can infer that the reduced capabilities listed are balanced against increased capability in the redacted segments.

    Below are some new details I thought were notable:
    • They plan to replace the 8 Seasprites with 9 new naval helicopters in 2028 (numbers were not specified in the DCP).
    • A new heavy airlift capability was considered to supplement the C130 fleet, but this was apparently not progressed.
    • The French vessel L'Astrolabe was listed as an example of a possible southern ocean patrol vessel.
    • HNLMS Rotterdam and RSS Endurance are listed as examples for the new sealift vessel and HMNZS Canterbury's replacement respectively. This suggests they are not planning to go for two vessels of the same class.
    • The SeaGuardian is listed as an example for the HALE/MALE drone option rather than the Triton.
    While it is probably not worth reading too much into the type examples listed, as decisions on most of these projects is still a long way off, they do provide a useful idea of the kind of capability that the MoD/NZDF have in mind.
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2019
  10. MrConservative

    MrConservative Super Moderator Staff Member

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    And global events in the Indo-Pacific will move far quicker than what this DCP calls for. There will be a desperate panic by 2025 if not sooner that they have not got their head around. It is not just the Pollies but some within MinDef and NZDF who are not seeing the strategic and technological picture emerging. Unfortunately currently some horrendous public policy spending choices in other areas will make it harder to sort out when the time comes.
     
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  11. Gibbo

    Gibbo Active Member

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    A very interesting link their milliGal... thanks for that. After a quick run thru I noted a few interesting points, some of which you've touched on.

    (1) As you say milliGal the examples of capabilities shown are just that and it's important not to read too much into those. It's also important to appreciate that this DCP does not in anyway commit this or subsequent Govt's to any of the planned purchases in this plan. The only thing we can be certain of is this is the current Govt's plan at the time of publication.

    (2) So it's not $20Bn going forward, it's $14Bn going forward:
    The $19.9 billion includes $5.8 billion of funding already committed. This covers all Defence capital spending since 2013, and major purchases like the P-8A Poseidon Maritime Patrol Aircraft, the Dive and Hydrographic Vessel HMNZS Manawanui, and the naval tanker HMNZS Aotearoa.

    (3) At long last someone has woken up to the capability that remotely operated vehicles could bring the NZDF... we seem to have been in a sleep-walk with regard to these until now. The closest so far seems to be the 'hobby-store' ones Army have been looking at. Those have their place as do micro-UAV but missing from NZDF plans were the bigger ones both mid to large size that most other Forces seem to now have mature experience with globally....hoorah!

    (4) Airlift is such an area where big gains could've been made however I suspect it will be a little anti-climactic in the end. The wasted C17 opportunity is likely to prove an enduring 'dammit' moment in the next few decades however I don't want to re-litigate that here. Of relevance however at least the DCP finally stops any pretence that NH-90 can be airlifted or self-deployed... it states it has to be sealifted in the NZDF context.

    Overall 7 out of 10
     
  12. Ocean1Curse

    Ocean1Curse Member

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    So is there any possibility this government can turn that 7/10 into an 8/10?

    The Reserve Bank Govenor has been going around all year trying to encourage this government to spend more while the government has been resisting. Read Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr puts in a plug for the Government and businesses to invest more to take advantage of low global interest rates

    A lot of promises have been made and the least they could do is bring spending forward by 5 years if they're just going to go out and borrow the money anyway. May as well get in while the borrowing is good I say.
     
  13. Gibbo

    Gibbo Active Member

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    It'd be better but I think coalition Govt & Treasury sensitivities will prevent any uplift in the spend. A change of Govt is unlikely IMHO to substantially change that as well as they're all about tax cuts. A lot will change between now & 2030 in many areas. Like MrConservative alluded to Indo-Pacific affairs will change quicker than the DCP will deliver to.:(
     
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  14. Ocean1Curse

    Ocean1Curse Member

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    Yeah it's a shame that people that are more worried about the way they look to the electorate would put themselves in the way like that y'know.

    If for nothing else I think it wise to keep the pressure on. If an underfunded and technologically inferior NZDF is truly what the electorates wants then it will happen because they willed it to.

    But no way should anyone be ignorant to the dilemmas faced by service personal. Just as the thought of spending billions on an Auckland Harbour Bridge upgrade makes people recoil, so to should they feel the discomfort of that faulty reasoning, and so to should they be uncomfortable about faulty NZDF budget properties.
     
  15. OPSSG

    OPSSG Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Events in the Indo-Pacific will move far quicker in the days ahead; and I worry if Singapore has done enough in our plans to cope.

    In May 2019, it was reported that India (as a P-8 operator) is likely to approve the proposal to buy 12 MQ-9 Sea Guardian drones from the US for its Navy for US$2 billion. Likewise, Singapore evaluating its options to buy new UAVs (of the Sea Guardian class).

    China is very assertive — to complement the belt & road, it’s intelligence agencies are at work in the region. On 23 November 2016, nine of our military vehicles were seized in Hong Kong, for 4 months, as the commercial APL ship carrying them passed through the port — that was an successful intelligence operation by the PRC. When Singapore accelerated our Archer class submarine replacement program, especially the placement of the second order of 2 Type 218SG before the first batch was completed, it is a sign of intelligence driven change.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019 at 5:20 AM
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  16. Gibbo

    Gibbo Active Member

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    Agree completely on the point about keeping pressure up.

    As for the 2nd point I'm not so sure we can blame the masses that easily. The MSM tend to cover very little of what the NZDF actually do in any meaningful detail and they tend to parrot all the PR whitewash that comes out of Wellington (both from Parliament & the NZDF). Their 'puff' pieces are so transparent to those of us who understand what the NZDF do, but the bulk of NZ don't and when they constantly get media releases telling us we're 'pulling our weight'; 'punch above our weight' etc etc the masses lap it up as it's warm fuzzy stuff that conveys a positive vibe. To us who know the reality those releases are more like cold fuzzy stuff... oh isn't that moss!?!

    I used to wince when the NZDF media releases used to list one of the Frigate's roles as disaster relief (in the days before L421 was commissioned). Maybe true on paper but a typical piece of spin calling a mouse a rabbit! One of the best ones recently was describing how Manawanui would help divers work in amongst other things...lakes! Yes those land-locked bodies of water...and yes it was referring to what the vessel would enable! I know typos are easy, maybe editing isn't!

    At least the state of our airlift fleet is getting exposure, plus aligning the NZDF with climate change challenges is smart stuff that's helping to drive an apparently emerging trend of less opposition to solidly reasoned defence expenditure but I don't believe that stretches to serious combat capability.... not unless the crap starts flying!
     
  17. Gibbo

    Gibbo Active Member

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    Everyone has a reasonable understanding of how the PRC intelligence 'system' works so given that, I'm surprised an effort wasn't made right from the get-go to arrange delivery in a way that could not risk compromising the vehicles in exactly they way they were... I guess that won't happen again!
     
  18. Ocean1Curse

    Ocean1Curse Member

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    I beg to differ. I did a post about a possible story on water quality in Kawerau, in the public interest, (with a factual hard lead, not an airy-fairy bee-in-the-bonnet suggestion) only to be told I can't do a post about "why doesn't the media write about this."

    But it's okay to post about what the media has written about, or in the NZDF case, NOT written about.

    It's also annoying when various media reports about three "separate" accidents..., or two "separate" police pursuits..., and so on. The use of "separate" is redundant.

    So we don't have to look very hard to find fake news. Even in the edited versions the true nature of MSM is plain to see. The most dangerous of fake news being the lie that is based on fact.

    I don't think much could be done about the way news is edited. No mater how much we rely on facts they are organised in a certain way, and I also believe that facts can be organised in a truthful way or in a lying way.

    The idea that anyone can sit at either end of the spectrum I think is impossible. Could you imagine some one who told the truth 100% of the time or even lied 100% of the time? I claim that's impossible so I think that everyone is doing roughly the same things.
     
  19. Gibbo

    Gibbo Active Member

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    So what I'm saying is essentially the same thing... the masses get fed a diet of half-truths, lies, obfuscation and blatant agendas all the time by MSM & others, including most of the world's politicians at some point! The NZDF releases are extremely tame in comparison but my point is that no matter what the source, the masses get fed little meaningful, open & honest detail on the real state of NZDF capabilities nor an honest view of just how small & constrained NZ's contribution to regional defence really is.

    So while I doubt most of the electorate wants an underfunded and technologically inferior NZDF, they are deliberately led to believe the NZDF is better funded and technologically better than what it really is. The masses are ignorant, but that is a lot to do with the [email protected]#$^&*%t they get fed! Yes that is clearly the way life is, especially in this day & age...I get that.
     
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  20. Ocean1Curse

    Ocean1Curse Member

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    Yeah but fake news is nowhere near as vicious as its predecessor communist propaganda was, or even McCarthyism and so on. Can we at least agree that NZDF is short 2 frigates, an air combat wing and a light infantry battalion.

    So my daughter, even if I was wearing a hat and standing in a crowd she would still be able to recognise me from across the other side of the field because she has grown accustomed to my silhouette. If she couldn't recognise me then any doctor would correctly diagnose that as something wrong with her intelegence.

    I use to travel across The Harbour Bridge and you could literally see one of the old Lender Frigates, okay they where a little old but when I drive over The Habour Bridge today what I see is hardly inspiring. Every day hundreds of thousands file past Deveport Navel Base or Whanuapai, you wouldn't exactly drive past and go that's the one, Y'know that's the ticket. Going back to my example of intelegence, everyone can literally see the risks building up and I don't belive for a secound that everyone is that stupid.