North Korean Military.

Blackshoe

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
A high level NK defector has testified in the US Congress, stating that "soft power" would be the best way to work against the Kim dynasty. He suggests various methods and one that I saw the other day of his; using information to drive a wedge between the population and regime. He suggested dropping USB sticks into NK and letting them disseminate through the population, educating them. These sticks could have news broadcasts, popular movies, music and tv shows etc., on them that the locals could see for themselves. The NK security forces will recover some, maybe a lot of the USB sticks, but not all. It's probably death to be caught with foreign media but they've got nothing to lose if they want to be free of the regime.
I watched the vast majority of this hearing (missed a little bit of Thae's opening statement, and the opening remarks from the chairmen and ranking members), and there were some great takeaways. The most complete summary I've seen was from Joshua Stanton (who also talked about the CSIS briefing
. It's a good summary if you don't feel like going through the entire testimony.

Some points I thought stood out:

-He reaffirms something I've said before: the DPRK wants nukes not primarily for deterrent against external attack from the US, but as leverage in their efforts to reunify the peninsula (at 1h32m into the Congressional testimony, he mistakes a question and goes into this in detail, citing that the DPRK's example for this is what happened to South Vietnam, in that once they can chase the US off the peninsula, the next target will be various businesses).

-He notes that a major legitimacy gap for KJU is in fact he has no relation w/Kim il-Sung. KIS was never even aware KJU's existence (KJU's mother was appropriated from another man, and thus was never welcomed into the official family). We can also infer that he never knew about the little-discussed KJ Chol, Un's older brother. From a domestic regime legitimacy standpoint, this has major implications.

-Side Note: this is also the kind of high level palace gossip that we have little information on, with the noted exception of Kenji Fujimoto and a few other sources.

-I thought his comments on subversive media needs to be made for North Koreans, not just South Korean media sent over, to be a really good one.

-on the subject of the "soft power" approach: I think a lot of the West (not saying you specifically, ngati) are taking the idea that this is a bloodless path forward, ignoring that the Norks would view this just as much as an attack on the legitimacy of the regime as anything else (they've threatened to use artillery against balloon launching points in the ROK, and attacked Sony Studios for making the movie The Interview). If we want to do this, we need to be willing to understand and not be surprised when the Norks respond with force. I don't think a lot of ppl pushing that have made that connection yet (eg this headline).

-militarily, KPA commanders apparently have weapons release authority to counterattack any US/ROK strikes.

-the regime views its primary threat as internal, not external

-he called for one meeting with KJU to make clear that the US would not tolerate the current DPRK path and and would destroy him if he continued on it. He caveated that with the statement that there is nothing that we could offer him that would convince him to give up his nukes or weapon programs.

-sanctions should be reinforced and kept up; it's too early to know their effectiveness yet.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
A high level NK defector has testified in the US Congress, stating that "soft power" would be the best way to work against the Kim dynasty. He suggests various methods and one that I saw the other day of his; using information to drive a wedge between the population and regime. He suggested dropping USB sticks into NK and letting them disseminate through the population, educating them. These sticks could have news broadcasts, popular movies, music and tv shows etc., on them that the locals could see for themselves. The NK security forces will recover some, maybe a lot of the USB sticks, but not all. It's probably death to be caught with foreign media but they've got nothing to lose if they want to be free of the regime.

That may only work with a selected few as the internet and personal computers are controlled by the state, I imagine 3/4 of the country would not even know what a USB stick was.

The use of soft power would only embolden the elite and use it against the general population as a means of propaganda against the west, they don't care for the hardship of the population.


https://www.vox.com/2014/12/22/7435625/north-korea-internet
 
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That may only work with a selected few as the internet and personal computers are controlled by the state, I imagine 3/4 of the country would not even know what a USB stick was.

The use of soft power would only embolden the elite and use it against the general population as a means of propaganda against the west, they don't care for the hardship of the population.


https://www.vox.com/2014/12/22/7435625/north-korea-internet
that and the USB plan could take years to work
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
That may only work with a selected few as the internet and personal computers are controlled by the state, I imagine 3/4 of the country would not even know what a USB stick was.

The use of soft power would only embolden the elite and use it against the general population as a means of propaganda against the west, they don't care for the hardship of the population.


https://www.vox.com/2014/12/22/7435625/north-korea-internet
Apparently media devices that accept USB sticks are reasonably common in NK. They are smuggled across the border and organisations in SK smuggle in media such as SK TV shows and movies, which are quite popular in the north. A USB stick is a lot easier to conceal than a CD / DVD.
 

colay1

Member
Send over thousands of balloons filled with chocolates, cigarettes and other decadent goodies. Make it a school project for every schoolchild in SK to launch one balloon across the border. :D
 

AegisFC

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Several groups already send USB sticks and DVD's over the border using balloons. They are filled with SK TV and some US movies.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Send over thousands of balloons filled with chocolates, cigarettes and other decadent goodies. Make it a school project for every schoolchild in SK to launch one balloon across the border. :D
Chocolate....so decadent, capitalistic and evil.....muhahahaaaahh!!
And inside there is a hidden ticket to 'The Free World'....
 

the concerned

Active Member
I know many have read about this defector who was shot and now found to have some unknown parasite inside him. Is he a true defector or was this some kind of biological attack.
 

Blackshoe

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
I know many have read about this defector who was shot and now found to have some unknown parasite inside him. Is he a true defector or was this some kind of biological attack.

Rather strange approach to load your vector up with worms, then shoot him a bunch (while assuming none of the multiple pistol/rifle rounds you fire at him hit him and kill him. Oh, and if you hit him you guarantee he's going to get a thorough medical examination) as you're "letting him" escape.

If the Norks wanted to conduct a biological attack, they have a lot of ways of doing so (eg seaborne infiltrator, fellow traveler visiting, faking someone as a third country national).

Sending a dude you shoot up running across the JSA is a subpar vector, to be honest.
 

Blackshoe

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
North Korea launched a new missile today, which it dubbed the Hwasong-15 (HS-15 for cool kids remembering). Based off altitude, it can range the entire continental US (albeit that might not be true with a full-sized payload).

So now (sealing the deal for the people who didn't, I guess), the Norks truly have a working ICBM.
 

gazzzwp

Member
Just a few 'random' observations/questions.

I wonder how much longer the 3 CBG's will be in the area?

Since the administration declared that there is no more road in which kick the can down nothing much seems to have changed in favour of the US and her allies apart from perhaps the installation and general acceptance of THAAD.

The clock is still ticking and every tick that passes favours Kim. His subs and missiles very soon may well be unstoppable.
 
What would happen if US decided to shoot down one of their test missiles?

If I was Trump, this is what I would do. But then again, if the THAAD was to miss, my god would that be extremely embarrassing and a political nightmare.
 

Blackshoe

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Have they closed the loop with an accurate guidance system and a warhead that can survive reentry?
Per this article, the US has believed since August that the RV technology is good enough.

As far as accuracy, how accurate do they really need it to be? If they're going for a countervalue strategy with their nuclear force (which, based on their talk of annihilating American cities, my opinion is they do) you don't need low double-digit meter CEP. You need single digit KMs, which even early generation ICBMs like the R-7 could do (5KM CEP on first launch IIRC). I would assume they can do that.


To use an analogy I used when I lived in the PACNORWEST, If your goal is to be able to demonstrate a threat against the US by being able to hit one of its cities and I'm aiming at the Space Needle but hit, say, the Fremont Troll...there won't be a difference in US reaction.

[Note that the assumption of being a countervalue vice counterforce strategy is only thinking about Nork usage against the CONUS. I'm not convinced that's true for either Japan or South Korea, or US forces stationed there or in Guam].

Additionally, while we who are Defence Pros/Enthusiasts tend to think there's a an important distinction between IOC and FOC, as Tom Nichols once pointed out, civilian leadership probably won't. A missile launched at the US will be assumed to be fully functional and responded to accordingly, even if it ends up not functioning 100%. It's telling to me that both the Norks and the US DoD are acting and talking like it's full up-round right now.

I think we'll see the next step (the live test over the Pacific) very shortly (eg w/in next five months, probably April at the latest).
 

Blackshoe

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
"Working" might be a bit generous. We have one launch, with an unknown payload.
That was enough for India and Pakistan to be considered IOC.

If the standard for the Nork's weapon to be FOC is live launch with live warhead, than only one country has a working ICBM (the US with the FRIGATE BIRD shot as part of Operation DOMINIC).
 

barney41

Member
POTUS has drawn another red line. China must cut ALL oil exports to NK OR ELSE the US will take unilateral action to deny them the oil.
He continues to paint himself into a corner with potentially disastrous outcomes.
 
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