North Korean Military.

[t68]

China sending a message to NK and the world? It can only be a good sign and the US and international community should redouble diplomatic efforts to further this kind of thinking in Beijing.


Thinking the unthinkable in China: Abandoning North Korea | at DefenceTalk

Thinking the unthinkable in China: Abandoning North Korea

North Korea’s nuclear antics have rattled its alliance with China to the point that Beijing is allowing the previously unthinkable to be discussed: Is it time to prepare for the renegade regime’s collapse?...

Jia Qingguo, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, raised eyebrows earlier in September when he published an article entitled: “Time to prepare for the worst in North Korea”.

The paper was published in English in East Asia Forum, a website of the Australian National University, but it is unlikely that he could have released it without the approval of Chinese authorities.

Jia urged Beijing to start discussing contingency plans with the United States and South Korea — talks that the two nations have sought in the past but China has resisted for fear of upsetting Pyongyang.

“When war becomes a real possibility, China must be prepared. And, with this in mind, China must be more willing to consider talks with concerned countries on contingency plans,” Jia wrote.

Beijing, he said, could discuss who would control North Korea’s nuclear arsenal — either the United States or China.

To prevent a massive flow of refugees across the border, China could send its army to North Korea to create a “safety zone”, Jia said.

Another touchy issue would be who would “restore domestic order in North Korea in the event of a crisis”. China, he said, would object to letting US soldiers cross the 38th parallel into North Korea.

I wonder what the West view would be if it was to become Chines territory, if China was to invade to keep the North from doing anything rash can they hold the country long term?

 

[colay1]

If China had it's way, why takre responsibility for a country of malnourished, brainwashed robots? Cede the territory over to the South in exchange for a demilitarized border and exit of US troops from the country.

 

[Blackshoe]

I wonder what the West view would be if it was to become Chines territory, if China was to invade to keep the North from doing anything rash can they hold the country long term?

Define "long-term".

They can hold it for at least 5 years, IMHO, depending on how many troops they are willing to send in to do the job of counter-insurgency. I expect that would be massively unpopular in China, though, and probably not something I think the CCP would really want to do. Annexing the territory is not something I think is in the cards.

A coup that replaces the Kim regime with one that was merely brutal and repressive (with lots of Chinese force to back it up) but didn't threaten the US/Japan and publicly pushed for re-unification in a confederation would be awkward because it would leave lots of people unhappy, but might at least be tolerable to the West. Real problem is I don't think that regime would be very stable at all.

 

[t68]

Define "long-term".

They can hold it for at least 5 years, IMHO, depending on how many troops they are willing to send in to do the job of counter-insurgency. I expect that would be massively unpopular in China, though, and probably not something I think the CCP would really want to do. Annexing the territory is not something I think is in the cards.

A coup that replaces the Kim regime with one that was merely brutal and repressive (with lots of Chinese force to back it up) but didn't threaten the US/Japan and publicly pushed for re-unification in a confederation would be awkward because it would leave lots of people unhappy, but might at least be tolerable to the West. Real problem is I don't think that regime would be very stable at all.

How long that's a tough one, would NK even be expecting something like that from China they are geared towards moving south.

I imagine there would be resistance in the initial phase but if the Chines can get an prominent NK official with more conservitave views in say 24 mths may be the best long term postion.

 

[John Fedup]

I can’t envision any regime that results from a Chinese inspired coup being any worse than the Kim dynasty. It will likely be a huge improvement for North Koreans and SK may even help economically down the road.

 

[colay1]

How ironic would it be that China turns on NK and KJU targets China with nukes?

 

[supercomrade]

I can’t envision any regime that results from a Chinese inspired coup being any worse than the Kim dynasty. It will likely be a huge improvement for North Koreans and SK may even help economically down the road.

Yup. China needs NK as a buffer zone, and one thing they need NK to do is to keep quiet and not cause any attention which is the exact opposite of what Kim does.

A China puppet leader would de-nuclearize, and stop sending people to work camps for any little thing(such as taking a newspaper with the leaders face and folding it or throwing it away....yes this is a punishable offense in NK)

 

[the concerned]

Surely China can see the benefits of doing a deal with South Korea about dealing with North Korea would have the added benefit of not having to provide financial aid to the country plus eliminate the need for US forces being on the peninsula.

 

[ngatimozart]

Surely China can see the benefits of doing a deal with South Korea about dealing with North Korea would have the added benefit of not having to provide financial aid to the country plus eliminate the need for US forces being on the peninsula.

Whilst we as westerners may see the logic in such a suggestion, the Chinese per se have a different cultural and world view to ours. Add into that the political dimensions of nationalistic fervour within the PRC and the CCP ensuring its own regime survival, it may be difficult to ascertain what the PRC will do.

At the moment the CCP will be having its five-yearly national congress this month and Xi Jinping will be angling for his 2nd term as Premier and stacking the Politburo Standing Committee with his own people, so that he can aim for a 3rd term in 2022. Xi has already purged the party and PLA of people who were / are members of other factions and he has also had himself elevated to the same level as Deng Xiaoping and Mao Zedong, with his Xi Jinping Thought being included as part of the CCP constitution. Once the five-yearly national congress is finished we may have an idea of the direction that Xi will take the PRC. He won't be wanting any distractions at the moment because of the impending congress, hence any major Chinese policy changes (if any) vis a vis North Korea may not be forthcoming until after the congress.

 

[John Fedup]

This link provides an analysis of hypothetical nuclear strikes on Seoul and Tokyo. Pretty grim if accurate.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/ar...nuclear_attack_on_seoul_and_tokyo_112437.html

 

[John Fedup]

This is a news report about a tunnel collapse at NK's nuclear test site. Perhaps fat boy will have to wait awhile for his next banger.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3834537/north-korea-nuclear-test-site-tunnel-collapsed-killing-200/

 

[ngatimozart]

This is a news report about a tunnel collapse at NK's nuclear test site. Perhaps fat boy will have to wait awhile for his next banger.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3834537/north-korea-nuclear-test-site-tunnel-collapsed-killing-200/

Yes I have seen it on different sites, but it is unverified at the moment, so I am treating it with some caution. However geologically it is quite possible and I saw a news item a week or so back that a Chinese scientist stated that any more nuclear tests in the mountain will most likely cause a collapse within the mountain. Such a collapse would have the good possibility of the release of nuclear contaminated material into the atmosphere. If this is the case, then not only North Korea, but also China, Russia, South Korea and Japan will have a nasty problem.

 

[John Fedup]

If there is a radioactive release it may be the catalyst to get all the players on the same page to do something about NK.

 

[Blackshoe]

Yes I have seen it on different sites, but it is unverified at the moment, so I am treating it with some caution. However geologically it is quite possible and I saw a news item a week or so back that a Chinese scientist stated that any more nuclear tests in the mountain will most likely cause a collapse within the mountain. Such a collapse would have the good possibility of the release of nuclear contaminated material into the atmosphere. If this is the case, then not only North Korea, but also China, Russia, South Korea and Japan will have a nasty problem.

Prevailing winds should make it mostly a ROK/JPN problem, with the right wind maybe hitting Vlad/Petr in Russia. China won't care whatsoever if that happens is my prediction.

 

[Feanor]

Prevailing winds should make it mostly a ROK/JPN problem, with the right wind maybe hitting Vlad/Petr in Russia. China won't care whatsoever if that happens is my prediction.

But does this make it any better? And this is assuming they don't get into the water. Also it largely depends on the quantity of radioactive material, doesn't it? A large enough quantity will cause problems even with the wind.

 

[ngatimozart]

A high level NK defector has testified in the US Congress, stating that "soft power" would be the best way to work against the Kim dynasty. He suggests various methods and one that I saw the other day of his; using information to drive a wedge between the population and regime. He suggested dropping USB sticks into NK and letting them disseminate through the population, educating them. These sticks could have news broadcasts, popular movies, music and tv shows etc., on them that the locals could see for themselves. The NK security forces will recover some, maybe a lot of the USB sticks, but not all. It's probably death to be caught with foreign media but they've got nothing to lose if they want to be free of the regime.

 

[Blackshoe]

But does this make it any better? And this is assuming they don't get into the water. Also it largely depends on the quantity of radioactive material, doesn't it? A large enough quantity will cause problems even with the wind.

I don't think it would be enough for the Russians to change the nature of their position viz the DPRK.

 

[Todjaeger]

But does this make it any better? And this is assuming they don't get into the water. Also it largely depends on the quantity of radioactive material, doesn't it? A large enough quantity will cause problems even with the wind.

Not just the quantity of material, but also the type of material released. Should the release be a quantity of something like cobalt-60 that would suggest immediate action should be taken.

 

[John Fedup]

I would say any energetic gamma emitter or beta emitter that has biological interaction with isotopes nessary for biological function is a problem ( e.g. Sr-90 displacing calcium, various iodine radioisotopes, Cs-137, etc). Co-60 and a whole other host of "ugly" radionuclides are also bad news. Tritium, although a weak beta emitter, is a problem if enough is present internally. The same applies to alpha emitters.

 

[Todjaeger]

I would say any energetic gamma emitter or beta emitter that has biological interaction with isotopes nessary for biological function is a problem ( e.g. Sr-90 displacing calcium, various iodine radioisotopes, Cs-137, etc). Co-60 and a whole other host of "ugly" radionuclides are also bad news. Tritium, although a weak beta emitter, is a problem if enough is present internally. The same applies to alpha emitters.

Should there be any sort of unexpected or uncontrolled break, quite a few nasty radioactive materials could be released. If something like cobalt-60 gets released, that would strongly suggest that N Korea was/is working on enhanced radiation devices. Specifically of a type which containment and decontamination would be quite difficult.