New Coronavirus threat

Nighthawk.NZ

Well-Known Member
Meanwhile I am down to my last roll of toilet paper so things are starting to look a little grim in my household.
We had a spat of panic buying ... but seems to have stopped... Misses went grocery shopping this morning and shelf's were full of loo paper and not only that she was able to choose what brand to buy...(which was lucky as we were getting low, I think we only had like 200 rolls left (jokes was down to our last roll lol)) but there was no panic buying... well here in Dunedin, New Zealand not Dunedin, Florida USA... lol

But Dunedin does have the factory that produces loo paper in South Dunedin... and supplies ost of the south Island... lol I don't know about the rest of the country though.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Jokowi's administration admitted that they don't disclose all COVID 19 cases, but insist all the cases being tracked and the suspect cases being hospitalized.
On their print edition today, Tempo put source that saying eventough official figures now is 69 cases, but potential real number already more than 100. This seems calculating the number of patients already in hospitals isolation room.

The Government also make emergency temporary hospital in Galang islands using old facilities from Vietnam Refugees camps. Galang near Batam which is across Singapore. They are not building other emergency hospital, but only in Galang.
This seems indicating they already know the cases in Batam, Riau Islands, or nearby Sumatra have potential become the biggest in Indonesia.
This also reflected that many residences on that area has frequent trip across to Singapore and Malaysia.

Tempo source indicating that Indonesia cases will top 1000 and become the biggest in Southeast Asia. However they also seems think considering the number of cases in tropical SEA, the number will not be in the amount of more colder area in the World.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
The actual number of COVID 19 cases are no doubt higher than reported if for no other reason than not all cases will have been reported. In particular mild cases may well have gone unnoticed as people just go about their business no doubt spreading the virus in the process.

Looking at Italy and the near-collapse of their health services doesn't bode well for other countries. If you think the public is panicking now just wait until they realise that there are not enough ambulances, hospital beds, doctors, nurses and other medical facilities to go around. In Australia, public hospitals are already overcrowded with only 1.4 hospital beds per 1000 people.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
There are now 6 cases in NZ now. Coronavirus: Six people have now tested positive for coronavirus

New Zealand has upgraded its restrictions as follows:

Category 1a countries and territories
  • Mainland China
  • Iran
The government has announced temporary restriction on travellers arriving in New Zealand from Category 1a countries and territories as a precautionary measure to protect against the spread of COVID-19.

The restrictions prevent foreign nationals travelling from or transiting through Category 1a countries and territories from entering New Zealand.

All New Zealand citizens and permanent residents (and close family members) inbound from Category 1a countries and territories are requested to register with Healthline

(0800 358 5453) and to undertake 14 days self-isolation starting from the date of the departure from that country or territory.

Category 1b countries and territories
  • All countries not named in category 1a or 2.
This will take effect from 23:59 Sunday 15 March 2020.

Category 1b countries and territories do not have travel restrictions in place. People who have been in Category 1b countries and territories (excluding airport transit) are requested to register with Healthline (0800 358 5453) and self-isolate for 14 days starting from the date of departure from a Category 1b country and territory.

Category 2 countries and territories
This will take effect from 23:59 Sunday 15 March 2020.
  • Cook Islands
  • Fiji
  • Kiribati
  • Marshall Islands
  • Federated States of Micronesia
  • Nauru
  • New Caledonia
  • Niue
  • Palau
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Samoa
  • Solomon Islands
  • Tonga
  • Tuvalu
  • Vanuatu
  • Tokelau
  • Wallis and Futuna
People who have recently travelled from Category 2 countries and territories (excluding airport transit) should be aware of the COVID-19 symptoms. You do not have to self-isolate if you are well. Anyone who develops symptoms within 14 days of departing the Category 2 country and territory should contact Healthline (0800 358 5453).

Also Kiwis have been asked not to conduct foreign travel unless it's absolutely necessary. Large gatherings have been cancelled and cruise ship visits have been cancelled until 30 June 2020. Coronavirus: Everyone coming to New Zealand must isolate for 14 days, Prime Minister Ardern says

Effectively NZ is closing its borders.
 

At lakes

Active Member
Attended Woolies this afternoon to purchase weekly stuff and what ever was left on the shelf. Was stopped by a lady at the door asking me if I was going to buy any kitchen paper towels and if not would I buy her a roll. Now the store is enforcing a strict one roll/packet limit to all customers and if a customer is seen going back they will be banned. She quiet clearly had been banned or ask to leave the store. I suggested to the lady in my most polite manner, a manner gained by working for 30 years with military and defence personnel that she should go away.
The Covid19 panic buying is still alive and well. When I went inside there was heaps of dunny paper on the shelf but no kitchen paper towels.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #87
There are now 6 cases in NZ now. Coronavirus: Six people have now tested positive for coronavirus

New Zealand has upgraded its restrictions as follows:

Category 1a countries and territories
  • Mainland China
  • Iran
The government has announced temporary restriction on travellers arriving in New Zealand from Category 1a countries and territories as a precautionary measure to protect against the spread of COVID-19.

The restrictions prevent foreign nationals travelling from or transiting through Category 1a countries and territories from entering New Zealand.

All New Zealand citizens and permanent residents (and close family members) inbound from Category 1a countries and territories are requested to register with Healthline

(0800 358 5453) and to undertake 14 days self-isolation starting from the date of the departure from that country or territory.

Category 1b countries and territories
  • All countries not named in category 1a or 2.
This will take effect from 23:59 Sunday 15 March 2020.

Category 1b countries and territories do not have travel restrictions in place. People who have been in Category 1b countries and territories (excluding airport transit) are requested to register with Healthline (0800 358 5453) and self-isolate for 14 days starting from the date of departure from a Category 1b country and territory.

Category 2 countries and territories
This will take effect from 23:59 Sunday 15 March 2020.
  • Cook Islands
  • Fiji
  • Kiribati
  • Marshall Islands
  • Federated States of Micronesia
  • Nauru
  • New Caledonia
  • Niue
  • Palau
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Samoa
  • Solomon Islands
  • Tonga
  • Tuvalu
  • Vanuatu
  • Tokelau
  • Wallis and Futuna
People who have recently travelled from Category 2 countries and territories (excluding airport transit) should be aware of the COVID-19 symptoms. You do not have to self-isolate if you are well. Anyone who develops symptoms within 14 days of departing the Category 2 country and territory should contact Healthline (0800 358 5453).

Also Kiwis have been asked not to conduct foreign travel unless it's absolutely necessary. Large gatherings have been cancelled and cruise ship visits have been cancelled until 30 June 2020. Coronavirus: Everyone coming to New Zealand must isolate for 14 days, Prime Minister Ardern says

Effectively NZ is closing its borders.
it will be interesting to see how effective the result will be for this border restriction, probably better than other attempts as it is very early days for NZ and geographic remoteness is also a plus.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
If these Pacific island nations have Covid 19 outbreaks Australia and New Zealand might be too stretched to lend much assistance. It could be the perfect opportunity for China to step in and provide medical aid. That would be a big diplomatic win for them. Ironic given that they caused the problem in the first place.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
I strongly believe that U.K.’s approach of flattening the peak of the epidemic, is a wrong strategy to adopt at this time — looks like many more people in the U.K. will die due to a decision by Boris’ government. There have been 1,372 confirmed cases across the U.K.

U.K.’s strategy might work, if a vaccine is available to protect the elderly and most vulnerable but I suspect NHS will be overwhelmed way before the peak. Soon doctors there will have to choose who will be given treatment and those who will die without treatment. More than 400 scientists and medical professionals pushing back against the herd immunity strategy in an open letter. These experts argued that herd immunity does not “seem a viable option” because it could overwhelm the UK’s National Health Service with very sick patients. Instead, they called for strict social distancing measures of a more serious variety than the government has currently recommended. Read more: Why is the UK approach to coronavirus so different to other countries?

The U.K. and Switzerland are effectively not trying to combat the coronavirus and cases there are likely to surge in the coming weeks, a Singapore minister said.

“One concern we have with cases such as U.K. and Switzerland isn’t just about the numbers. It is that these countries have abandoned any measure to contain or restrain the virus,” Minister for National Development Lawrence Wong said at a press briefing Sunday. “If there’s no attempt to contain, we estimate the number of cases in these countries to rise significantly in the coming days and weeks.”

People who enter Singapore with recent travel history to ASEAN countries, Japan, Switzerland or the United Kingdom will be issued with a 14-day stay-home notice. This will take effect from 11.59pm on Monday (Mar 16) and applies to all travellers.

As of 15 Mar 2020, Singapore has 14 new cases of coronavirus infection. 9 of the 14 are imported cases, with 3 imported from Indonesia. Due to the poor handling of the situation in Indonesia, 3 patients from there, knew they were symptomatic but travelled to Singapore and were "literally sent straight away" from the airport to hospital or the National Centre for Infectious Diseases for treatment.

Some people have travelled to Singapore with the "specific purpose of seeking medical care" in Singapore, said Mr Wong. "It is very hard for us to cope with this additional demand," the minister added.

"We understand why they would like to do so and we would certainly like to help them, but if there is a sudden surge, we don’t have the capacity to do so and the capacity of our healthcare system must be prioritised for Singaporeans,” Mr Wong said. To stop this trend, restrictions to travel have been imposed on travellers from all ASEAN countries (except Malaysia). All short-term visitors who are nationals of any ASEAN country will have to submit requisite information on their health to the Singapore Overseas Mission in the country they are a resident of before their intended date of travel. The submission will have to be approved by Singapore’s health ministry before travel, and the approval will be verified by Immigration and Checkpoints Authority (ICA) officers at the Singapore checkpoints.

The number of infected patients in Singapore has increased to 226, of which 13 are in critical condition in the intensive care unit. A total of 105 cases have fully recovered and been discharged from hospital.
 
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StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
I am pretty disappointed with most western nations responses at this time.

US/UK/AU are pretty disappointing. Italy seems like total failure, EU as a whole seems to not be using any of the advantageous things about being a big transnational entity and its all up to states to do things, which they are generally not good at doing.

Very impressed with Singapore and South Korea approach. Despite the issues they have as transport hubs, high density, they have been very active from the get go. NZ was a bit slow, but arguably they had some time, and while aren't extremely rigorous with testing, are now doing the quarantining thing.

Pacific nations are likely to be highly at risk. Samoa was severely hit by Spanish flu due to lax NZ practices, while American Samoa was saved by strict quarantine. (How NZ took influenza to Samoa, killing a fifth of its population)

These nations are genetically more susceptible and have generally weaker healthcare systems. So I think its essential NZ and AU take a very strict approach with this.

Australia did place an order for 54 million face masks, and has taken some reasonable capabilities at making vaccines and medical supplies. But many of the professionals in the health space have been pretty unimpressed with how seriously the AusGov are taking this. Hence the frantic back peddling on Melbourne F1, NRL, AFL, handshaking etc. Tom Hanks being one of the first to get it in Oz was also globally embarrassing.
 
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Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Pacific nations are likely to be highly at risk. Samoa was severely hit by Spanish flu due to lax NZ practices, while American Samoa was saved by strict quarantine. (How NZ took influenza to Samoa, killing a fifth of its population)

These nations are genetically more susceptible and have generally weaker healthcare systems. So I think its essential NZ and AU take a very strict approach with this.
Not sure that the comment "genetically more susceptible" is accurate, as the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a new (or at least new to humans) coronavirus, and behaves somewhat differently from the three other types of coronavirus which can infect humans. What that means basically, is that human immune systems have not adapted to help fight off this new virus, and this applies to humans everywhere. This is unlike some of the epidemics which strike down large swaths of native populations when explorers and colonists from Europe migrated to North and South America. In some of those cases, diseases like smallpox and likely influenza could have a significantly higher rate of both infection and mortality among the native populations who had never encountered such diseases, whereas people of European origin likely had some prior exposure in their genetic history which could have imparted some greater resistance and/or effectiveness in their immune systems.

As a side note, I seem to recall (albeit not what/where) that there are genetic markers which can be found in people who are descended from survivors of the Black Death. By survivors I mean people who were infected with one of the plagues but ended up surviving and having offspring. As a side note, from what else about that I can recall, the people with this or these markers seem to have a greater resistance to infectious diseases than most.

As for Pacific Island nations being at higher risk, I am not certain that is entirely accurate either. IMO the prime risk is whether or not they can control/quarantine people coming into the country. If they can manage that, then the risks should be significantly lower. OTOH if cases have already been able to get into the country and expose portions of the populace, then I agree the likely smaller healthcare systems and stockpiles of supplies, but distance from supply sources would likely be a significant hindrance.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well the susceptibility of everyone to this virus is very much an ongoing experiment. I probably shouldn't say genetic, as modern history seems to have reviewed the situation and much of the explanation of the higher death rate comes down to lack of medical care and things like traditions about hearing the final words from elders.

However there has been some statistical modelling that indicates any pandemic would hit the pacific islands quite hard.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3320443/ - Pandemic in Pacific
Counting Oceanians of Non-European, Non-Asian Descent (ONENA) in the South Pacific to Make Them Count in Global Health - Risk factors for those in oceania

However, Samoa's recent experience with the Measles with 83 people died seem to continue to highlight how limited they will be to able to fight these kind of Pandemics. Even with a concerted effort and limitless external assistance to help correct the problem.


It would certainly seem prudent to go enforcing a strict quarantine on the Pacific than fight it by pure medical care. Islands can be easier to quarantine. The main issue then is keeping the islands resupplied. Turning back supply ships is likely to make other matters worse.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 1 of 2: Importance of stopping Super-spreader Events

1. Between 27 Feb 2020 and 1 Mar 2020, 14,500 Malaysians and 1,500 foreigners attended a mass tabligh gathering (religious gathering) at the Sri Petaling mosque in Kuala Lumpur. That became a trigger for a Super-spreader event. Malaysia, reported 125 new infections, bringing the total number of cases to 553. 95 of those new cases are linked to the mass tabligh gathering at the Sri Petaling mosque in Kuala Lumpur. Confirmed coronavirus cases in surged after 5 Mar 2020 and the Malaysian government announced a nation-wide lock-down starting from 18 Mar 2020. Except essential services, all other services will be closed.

2. The number of UK infections of coronavirus has risen by 232 to 1,372, the Department of Health has announced — but the actual number of infected is estimated to be between 35,000 and 50,000 (due to a lack of testing). The UK Government has failed its people by failing to ban mass gatherings in time. Britain is certain to have a huge coronavirus outbreak, with mass gatherings banned by the British government only from next weekend (a little too late). A number of large events in UK went ahead as planned including the 15 Mar 2020 Stereophonics concert. This concert had around 4,000 to 5,000 music revellers attending at Cardiff's Motorpoint Arena. The Stereophonics concert attendees are irresponsible and stupid. But more than individual stupidity, the UK government’s incompetence in failing to stop the spread of the virus by timely intervention is noted.

3. Churches (South Korea and Singapore), Mosques (Brunei, Malaysia, and Singapore) and concerts (UK), where people in close proximity to each other, are actual or potential super-spreader events. Governments and religious authorities that are responsible (and not incompetent) would close them for short periods to limit the potential for a super spreader event.
(i) Public mass for Catholics in Singapore have been suspended indefinitely from 15 Feb 2020 in order to minimise the risk of coronavirus spread, said the Archbishop of Singapore William Goh. In a letter posted on the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Singapore's website as well as on its Facebook page, Archbishop Goh said that all other public Catholic events with large numbers of people attending, such as formation sessions, retreats and seminars, should be suspended as well.​

(ii) Singapore’s MUIS announced on 13 Mar 2020 that all mosques in Singapore would close until 26 Mar 2020 for cleaning (and to break the cycle of transmission) after several congregants tested positive for the coronavirus following the tabligh gathering in Malaysia (a super-spreader event). Contact tracing by the Singapore Ministry of Health (MOH) revealed that the 5 infected individuals frequented at least 10 mosques during their infectious period said MUIS in a statement.​
(iii) According to Brunei's Ministry of Health, the 3 new cases are all linked to the same tabligh gathering in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, attended by Brunei's first confirmed patient. One of the three cases is a nine-month-old baby. The Ministry of Health also said that 50 cases are being treated at the National Quarantine Centre at Tudong District and are in stable condition. Brunei said on 15 Mar 2020 that its citizens and foreign residents in the country are barred from leaving.​
(iv) Through detailed epidemiological investigation, Singapore’s MOH has determined that Case 66 was the primary case of this cluster, and that transmission to church members first occurred through staff meetings at the church’s Tanglin branch (355 Tanglin Road). Case 66 had reported onset of symptoms on 29 Jan 2020 – the earliest in the cluster – and had gone to work at Grace Assembly of God while symptomatic. 16 cases in this church were subsequently infected with COVID-19.​

4. Without blaming anyone or any single factor, Italy’s civil protection service chief Angelo Borrelli said: "From the very start, people were behaving in a way that fuelled the national problem." But he did point to a Champions League match between Italy's Atalanta and Spain's Valencia's football clubs in Milan's San Siro stadium on Feb 19 as an egregious mistake. It was attended by 40,000 fans who celebrated the local team's win deep into the night. "We can now say, with hindsight, that it was potentially a detonator," Borrelli said of the match.

5. If you roll up to a drive-through COVID-19 testing center in South Korea, you might notice that safety procedures extend all the way to your car's air conditioning. You will be advised to hit the recirculation button so that if you're sick, you can keep your pathogens to yourself, in your car, and avoid infecting the medical personnel doing the testing. The test takes 10 minutes at most. Results are texted to you, usually the next day. And it's free — paid for by the government. Drive-through centers have helped South Korea do some of the fastest, most-extensive testing of any country. And while nobody is claiming that South Korea has defeated the outbreak, experts credit the emphasis on testing with reducing case numbers and fatalities.

(i) Date of First #COVID19 diagnosis​
▪January 20 (South Korea)​
▪January 21 (United States)​

(ii) Number of #COVID19 tests run since first diagnosis​
▪>270,000 (South Korea)​
▪~23,000 (United States)​
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 2 of 2: Importance of testing, contact tracing & having systems
6. South Korea's aggressive testing and contact tracing may make it unnecessary to impose the sort of lockdowns to which China and Italy have resorted, although health officials insist that all options remain on the table in dealing with the epidemic. One Seoul test center consists of four trailerlike offices with white canopies in front. Doctors in full protective suits and goggles take the driver's temperature with an infrared thermometer and hand out a questionnaire to fill out. If you're running a fever and, in the doctor's opinion, may be at risk based on where you've been or whom you've contacted, you're eligible for a test. Only the driver is tested — passengers are not. On 16 Mar 2020, President Moon Jae-in said he was increasingly confident the country would overcome the coronavirus as the rate of new infections continued to drop, although the authorities noted another large cluster had emerged in the greater Seoul area. There were 74 new coronavirus infections reported yesterday, marking the second day in a row that the number has been below 100.

7. Travellers to Singapore who have a fever or display signs of respiratory illness need to undergo a nasal swab test for the coronavirus at all air, land and sea checkpoints, even if they do not meet the clinical definition of being suspect cases. The samples - one from each nostril - will be couriered to the Home Team Science and Technology Agency (HTX) laboratory at Pasir Panjang Scanning Station as soon as they have been collected. The lab, which will be staffed round the clock by a team of about 20 scientists, will test the sample. It can test up to 200 samples a day.

8. The Singapore Government made a call on 13 Mar 2020 to cancel or defer ticketed events attended by more than 250 people. Malaysia and Singapore have also formed a joint working group (JWG) to prevent the spread of the virus. Led by the deputy health ministries of both the countries, the JWG will focus on sharing information on various aspects including the clinical management of patients. The JWG will enable both countries to adopt similar border screening procedures and expand border cooperation. It will also facilitate information exchange on surveillance data and public advisories.

9. On 16 Mar 2020 it was reported that Singapore has donated safety equipment and ventilators to Batam hospitals in Riau Islands province to help treat COVID-19 patients. Singaporean Consul General in Batam Mark Low handed over 50 hazmat suits and two ventilators to Batam Mayor Muhammad Rudi on Friday as the city braces for a surge of infections.

10. While Singapore has established a protocol and heightened border surveillance to prevent the further spread of the disease, Indonesia has only started testing suspected patients and taking measures to minimize close contact between people. “We appreciate the help from the Singapore government. Batam and Singapore have enjoyed a long relationship,” Rudi said at the consulate general office in Batam, which is a mere 70-minute ferry ride from the city-state.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
1. Instead of global doom and gloom news due to the spread of the coronavirus, let me share something light-hearted for a change. To ‘Singaporize’ (or ‘Singaporise’, UK spelling) is now a verb — with articles from the Financial Times (FT) and Business Insider, using the word in a positive manner.

2. The FT article is from 13 March 2020 “The coronavirus: my part in its downfall,” written by Edward Luce says that:

“For how long will this tedious horror go on? That depends on the quality of public action and private behavior. If the US could Singaporize on both counts, we could be through the worst within a month. If we continue the record of the last few weeks — too late, too bureaucratic, and a White House in shambolic denial — it could get sharply worse over two or three months. The big lesson is that countries that act decisively and quickly are far better off than those who block their ears and hope it will go away.”​

3. The Business Insider is titled “Georgia is Successfully ‘De-Sovietizing’ and ‘Singaporising’,” wherein the author, Simon Black, wrote about how Georgia was a bright spot in a time of economic gloom as it did away with antiquated business institutions in an effort to de-Sovietize and Singaporize. He wrote:
“Living here is dirt cheap… and a lot of fun. The people are incredibly warm, and I’ve found that the younger generations which are on board with the ‘Singaporization of Georgia’ are incredibly sharp.”​

4. Tan Chuan Jin, the Singapore’s Speaker of the Parliament, gleefully took to Facebook on Sunday (Mar 15) about a “new word” i.e. “Singaporise.” His post has been shared over 2,000 times. But it’s not a new word. The Business Insider article is from 2012 but it is being made popular thanks to FT. A quick Google search shows usage of the word dating back from 2013, 2014 and 2017.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

Indonesian Government looking at ex Asian Games Atletes Dorm for emergency hospital on COVID 19 cases.
There are 227 cases positive so far, but the alarm mostly on the fatality. The number of death so far is 19. Most cases in Jakarta area. Considering that Jakarta is the main gateway, this is not surprising.

However the number of fatality shown late identification and taking care. Besides Singapore, South Korea and China already send testing kits to increase significant testing facilities.
Indonesian health ministry before limit labs that can do testing of COVID 19 only to few labs under their jurisdiction. Eventough they in the end admits there are much more labs that can do testing.

Now they are changing testing method (if not mistaken) using method being perfected by South Korea. Also the number of Labs to conduct test will be increased significantly. Some report suggest up to 100 labs being prepared to conduct fast test.

Hopefully this is better late then never. The administration simply too over confidence before.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #97
The cruise ship industry has been savaged by COVID-19. Comedian Bill Maher’s recent episode really trashed “cruising “ and although it was his usual caustic performance, much of it was fair. Got me to thinking, what is the USN doing for the 5,000 crew members on super carriers? The potential for social distancing seems a tad difficult on Nimitz class CVNs.
 

Black Jack Shellac

Active Member
The cruise ship industry has been savaged by COVID-19. Comedian Bill Maher’s recent episode really trashed “cruising “ and although it was his usual caustic performance, much of it was fair. Got me to thinking, what is the USN doing for the 5,000 crew members on super carriers? The potential for social distancing seems a tad difficult on Nimitz class CVNs.
Stay at sea and they have all the social distance they need.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Stay at sea and they have all the social distance they need.
Not quite true. Three days ago a story was released about the first USN personnel who tested positive aboard a vessel, specifically the LHD USS Boxer. Given how long a patient can be asymptomatic and contagious, as well as how long the virus can remain viable on surfaces, there would still be the potential for the virus to get aboard a vessel. The only way to prevent that would be an absolutely complete cutoff of the vessel from any outside element unless it had been tested/deconned to confirm it was free of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
 
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