New Coronavirus threat

[John Fedup]

New data suggests the Pfizer vaccine could be stored for up to 30 days as opposed to 5 days at normal fridge temperatures after thawing. As the link states, this will be a huge plus in countries limited by ultra cold freezer access in remote regions where thawed vaccine can be administered from fridges.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/pfizer-vaccine-canada-storage-temperature-1.6031823

 

[OPSSG]

Updates from Asia — Part 1

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1395037151755075585

1. In controversial posts on Twitter and Facebook on Tuesday, Delhi's Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal alleged that a variant of COVID-19 found in Singapore was particularly harmful to children and could cause a third wave of infections in India. He urged the Indian government to ban all air services with Singapore immediately.

2. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's comments was published by the Hindustan Times ("Coronavirus variant found in Singapore can be India's 3rd wave, extremely dangerous for kids, warns Arvind Kejriwal") and NDTV (“Stop Singapore Flights: Arvind Kejriwal To Centre Over New Covid Strain”), without any initial attempt to fact check and only later adding Singapore’s clarification later, as an update without retracting the story and correcting the headline. These irresponsible Indian media houses are publishing the Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's deliberately falsehood, without attempting to check with the Central Indian Govt (or an Indian doctor or professional who understands COVID-19 variant), who would be able to say that this is nonsense. This type of irresponsible behaviour by the Indian press harms relations against a friendly country which has rushed aid to India.

3. I say shame on Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal (“Delhi CM”) for lying to make a political point and some members of the less responsible Indian press who (i) helped spread his lies, during a global pandemic, without any initial attempt to fact check, or (ii) cannot do the right thing thereafter and publish a retraction the hoax that is based on a falsehood generated by a Delhi politician hoping to gain prominence in India.

​

(a) Singapore's Ministry of Health (MOH) on the same day rejected the claims, and said: “There is no truth whatsoever in the assertions found within the reports. There is no “Singapore variant”. The strain that is prevalent in many of the COVID-19 cases in recent weeks is the B.1.617.2 variant, which originated in India. Phylogenetic testing has shown this B.1.617.2 variant to be associated with several clusters in Singapore,” its health ministry said in a statement.​

​

(b) There are 27 new cases of locally-transmitted Covid-19 infection; of whom 21 are linked to previous cases and 6 of them are unlinked. According to Bloomberg news, the highly transmissible strain of Covid-19 that surfaced in India has become more prominent among Singapore's list of current infections. Singapore’s MOH is busy enough with real work as it in the middle of fighting a second wave of 27 COVID-19 cases. Some of this new clusters have spread from the B.1.617.2 variant of the coronavirus (aka the new Indian variant).​

3. Singapore and India have been solid partners in the fight against Covid-19. Many in India and some members of the Indian government appreciate Singapore's role as a logistics hub and oxygen supplier. The country’s gesture of deploying 2 C-130Hs to deliver oxygen cylinders and other medical aid speaks of the exceptional military to military relationship.

​

(a) India's External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar and his ministry spokesperson on Wednesday (19 May) slammed Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal over his comments about a "Singapore variant" of COVID-19.​

​

(b) Thereafter, certain segments of the Indian press continued by saying that in “diplomatic circles, it is extremely unusual for the MEA to announce the summoning of its own top diplomat, and for the External Affairs Minister to publicly criticise an elected Chief Minister from his own country in this manner.”​

​

(c) Responding to Jaishankar’s comments on Kejriwal’s controversial remarks, Delhi Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia said the statement was intended to convey concern for the children of the country while “the Centre is only focusing on its image abroad.” “Reactions from the Centre and BJP make it clear that while Kejriwal is worried about children, BJP and Centre are worried about Singapore. The Centre and BJP do not worry about children,” Manish Sisodia said.​

4. It is unfortunate for India-Singapore bilateral relationship that the Singapore Government had to call in India’s High Commissioner to Singapore to convey the country’s strong objection to Delhi Chief Minister's tweet on "Singapore variant" of COVID-19. Thankfully the High Commissioner and India's External Affairs Minister have both clarified on India’s behalf that Delhi’s Chief Minister has no competence to pronounce on COVID-19 variants or civil aviation policy.

5. The Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has weaponised misinformation — I pity the Indians for being so poorly served by a boisterous free press that is:

​

(i) so incapable of basic fact checks by carrying Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s lies in their news reports without retraction; and​

​

(ii) so incapable of ethical behaviour and so irresponsible that they would continue to perpetuate a lie, by carrying remarks which are further falsehoods presented by the Delhi Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia without challenge.​

 

[OPSSG]

Updates from Asia — Part 2

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1396465624331608071

6. BZ to the Indian Navy, in moving tons of CORVID-19 relief supplies to India, that has seen 26.8 million infected. India leads the world in the daily average number of new infections reported, accounting for one in every 2 infections reported worldwide each day. COVID-19 infections are decreasing in India, with 255,283 new infections reported on average each day.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1394588526507827201

7. The Indian press have got to learn to fact check. There is a cost to other countries (like Singapore) for allowing COVID-19 relief supplies to India to flow through our airports and ports.

8. Singapore’s Health Minister Gan Kim Yong, who with Wong co-chairs the multi-ministerial task force handling the pandemic, said, Singapore is on heightened alert against the coronavirus, given rising case numbers and emerging virus variants around the world.

• As I noted earlier, the strain that is prevalent in many of the COVID-19 cases in Singapore is the B.1.617.2 variant, which originated in India.
• The Ministry of Heath (MOH) said Singapore has seen 46 imported cases of the B.1.617.2 variant of the virus from India.
• There have also been 5 imported cases of the B1525 variant. Responding to questions about the new variants, Assoc Prof Mak said there is emerging evidence that some of the variants may have an increased risk of breakthrough.

9. On 23 May 2021, Singapore reported 25 cases, of which 22 are locally transmitted COVID-19 cases (including 21 in the community and 1 who resides in a dormitory). There are currently 242 confirmed cases who are still in hospital — the country also reported its 32nd COVID-19 death, a 70-year-old man linked to the cluster at Tan Tock Seng Hospital. Of the 242 in hospital, most are stable or improving, and 3 are in critical condition in the intensive care unit. This is down from the 5 cases who were in critical condition in the ICU a day earlier.

10. Singapore’s MOH and the Ministry of National Development (MND) said 10 cases have been detected from 4 households living at Block 506 Hougang Avenue 8, while 4 cases were detected in 2 households living at Block 559 Pasir Ris Street 51. Mandatory polymerase chain reaction tests for all residents of the Hougang block were completed on Friday and Saturday, while a two-day swabbing operation began on Sunday for the Pasir Ris block residents.

11. To facilitate eventual return of air travel and travel bubbles, a Singapore developed COVID-19 breath test that can generate results within 1 minute has received provisional authorisation from Singapore’s Health Sciences Authority (HSA). This new test would have been perfect for the Shangri-La Dialogue 2021, had it not been cancelled.

​

(a) The BreFence Go COVID-19 breath test system was developed by Breathonix, a spin-off company of the National University of Singapore, and is the first breath analysis system to secure such authorisation in Singapore. The trials were conducted in Singapore at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID) and Changi Airport, as well as in Dubai, in collaboration with the Dubai Health Authority and the Mohammed Bin Rashid University of Medicine and Health Sciences.​

​

(b) Individuals screened as positive by the breath test will have to undergo a confirmatory polymerase chain reaction COVID-19 swab test.​

12. Thanks to the spread of the B.1.617.2 variant from India, the Singapore-Brunei travel bubble has been suspended and the scheduled Shangri-La Dialogue 2021 from June 4 to 5, has been cancelled. It was set to welcome ministers and senior military officials from around the world, including US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga but thanks to 25 new COVID-19 cases in a single day, the event was cancelled.

13. Japan's western region home to 9 million people is suffering the brunt of the fourth wave of the pandemic, accounting for a third of the nation's death toll in May, although it constitutes just 7% of its population. The speed at which Osaka's healthcare system was overwhelmed underscores the challenges of hosting a major global sports event in two months' time, particularly as only about half of Japan's medical staff have completed inoculations. Japan has avoided the large infections suffered by other nations, but the fourth pandemic wave took Osaka prefecture by storm, with 3,849 new positive tests in the week. That represents a more than fivefold jump over the corresponding period three months ago.

"Simply put, this is a collapse of the medical system," said Yuji Tohda, the director of Kindai University Hospital in Osaka.​

 

[OPSSG]

Updates from Asia — Part 3

14. East Asia’s supremacy in dealing with the pandemic is not a fluke. For nearly 50 years, Asian nations, led by Japan (0.7 million infected and 12,351 deaths), Korea (0.1 million infected and 1,938 deaths), Singapore (61,860 infected and 32 deaths) and Taiwan (4,917 infected and 29 deaths), have been quietly building smarter and better governments. When compared to India, the US or Brazil, there are really shocking comparative numbers that come from governmental competence in East Asia:

• Despite the 4th wave in Osaka, Japan has lost fewer than 2,000 people, a 100th of the U.S. death toll of 589,000. Korea’s 1,922 deaths, is also comparable to Japan (far out performing Europe, the US or at the bottom, of the competence league tables, India).
• With 25 people infected on 23 May 2021, Singapore’s CORVID-19 death rate is about 5 per million (a total of 32 deaths with a total of 61,824 infected, since the start of the pandemic)
• Taiwan's Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) on 23 May 2021 reported a total of 287 local COVID-19 cases, 6 deaths, 3 imported cases, as well as 170 retroactively added for the past week; giving it a total of 23 deaths and 4,332 infected, since the start of the pandemic.
• Taiwan announces the extension of its heightened nationwide COVID-19 warning level, now set at 3, to June 14, maintaining restrictions on gatherings. Also, on 26 May 2021, Taiwan reports 542 new domestic cases, including 261 from a backlog of positive PCR test results over the past week.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1397087560216743938

15. The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency reported 561 new confirmed cases of the coronavirus on 20 May 2021, bringing the total tally to 134,678 infections, with 1,922 deaths. Likewise, this month, Singapore and Taiwan have both seen a sudden and aggressive rise in cases - with Singapore logging 248 new cases just last week, and Taiwan 1,200 local infections. Both places have gone into a heightened state of restrictions, limiting the size of social gatherings and closing schools. Taiwan relaxed its quarantine requirements for non-vaccinated airline pilots from an initial 14-day period, to five days - and then, just three days. Shortly afterwards, a cluster broke out connected to a handful of China Airlines pilots who had been staying at a Novotel near Taoyuan Airport.

16. India drew anger last month after it ordered Twitter to remove posts critical of some of its actions during the pandemic. The country has been hit hard by the new variant since late March and is now second only to the US in terms of overall infections, according to Johns Hopkins University research.

17. After America (33.1 million infected and 590,320 deaths) and Brazil (16.1 million infected and 449,858 deaths), India has become the latest country to log over 307,231 COVID-19 fatalities. Experts believe the actual death toll and infection rate to be much higher than reported in India.

18. The number infected in India at 26.95 million is more than 16.1 million infected in Brazil. At the current pace, India will overtake the 33.1 million infected in the US and also be the world leader in total CORVID-19 infected and deaths, later this year.

 

[swerve]

India's probably well ahead of any other country in deaths at the moment. As well as poor record-keeping in poor & rural areas, there appears to be deliberate suppression of reporting covid-19 deaths, especially in areas with BJP-controlled local administrations. They're having 25% of those tested showing positive in much of the country, which indicates that they're probably missing most cases.

Some other countries are also greatly under-reporting, either because of poor infrastructure (sadly widespread) or deliberately. Russia, for example, has had massive increases in deaths reported to be caused by pneumonia & other symptoms typical of covid-19. Official deaths exclude many people with co-morbidities, so if you have a heart or respiratory problem which might kill you next year, or in ten years, & you catch covid-19 & die, it's recorded as heart or respiratory failure. Several months ago a deputy prime minister let slip that the government's internal estimates were that 81% of excess deaths up to that point were caused by covid-19. That was more than four times the official covid-19 death number at the time, & significantly higher than the current official figure. Extrapolating from that, there's a chance that Russia has had as many covid-19 deaths as the USA, in a smaller population. But at least Russia seems to report total deaths honestly & accurately. It's just the causes that are fudged.

Some other countries with fairly complete death registration have also had much higher increases in recorded deaths than reported covid-19 deaths. Iran, Turkey, Egypt (massive discrepancy), some ex-Soviet republics (Uzbekistan & Belarus stand out), some Latin American countries (not all: some seem to be reporting pretty fully - e.g. Chile & Costa Rica) such as Mexico, Peru & most of all Bolivia. Various people have been tracking the discrepancies, e.g. The Economist. And there are a couple of estimating models out there which suggest that worldwide deaths have been from twice the officially reported 3.5 million up to about four times.

I'd guess that total deaths so far have been highest in India, then the USA, Russia & Mexico, then Brazil.

 

[John Fedup]

I wonder what the situation is in North Korea? Perhaps isolation and strict control of the population has minimized COVID somewhat.

 

[Ananda]

wonder what the situation is in North Korea? Perhaps isolation and strict control of the population has minimized COVID somewhat.

I also wonder on that. There's also rumours that DPRK eliminate some infectious patient that considered too far down in conditions (due to lack of Hospital facilities especialy ICU). However I do think they probably now more or less in control due to two thing:
1. Their population mobility control,
2. Their main trading partner (China) also already in control.

Like it or not on this condition, Communist people mobility control due matter. Even relative open developing communist nation like Vietnam able more or less provide better control on infection among its population. Sometimes I wish Indonesia back to Soeharto era during this Covid. The dictactor I know have better track record on controling people movement and discipline.

 

[John Fedup]

Rather pathetic that a lottery is needed to entice people to get vaccinated given the dire situation in India and elsewhere in the developing world. Perhaps a better alternative is a massive fine or a huge increase on provincial healthcare premiums.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-launches-vaccine-lottery-1.6064050

 

[OPSSG]

Updates from Asia — Part 4

19. 14 more people added to the Bukit Merah View food centre cluster on 16 June 2021 most of whom are foodstall workers there or their household contacts, said the Singapore Ministry of Health (MOH). This brings the total number of cases in the cluster to 39.

20. MOH is investigating cases of COVID-19 infection amongst individuals who work in or visited 115 Bukit Merah View Market & Food Centre. All staff and tenants who have been working at 115 Bukit Merah View Market & Food Centre from 25 May 2021 have been placed on quarantine, and are tested during quarantine.

21. In order to disrupt any wider, undetected community transmission, special testing operations on 14 June 2021 for all staff and tenants who have been working in 116 Bukit Merah View. MOH have also extended free COVID-19 testing to members of the public who had visited the shops at 115 and 116 Bukit Merah View between 25 May and 12 June. The testing operations are in progress.

22. The newly confirmed cases take Singapore's total number infected to 62,339 (with 61,894 recovered) said MOH. An 86-year-old Singaporean woman died on 7 Jun 2021 from complications due to Covid-19, bringing Singapore's coronavirus death toll to 34.

 

[Ananda]

Singapore preparing road map for living with Covid-19

In time, the virus will be treated like the flu, without the need for lockdowns, said the multi-ministry task force. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

I put this ST article not only to talk about Singapore road map on living with COVID, however this kind of step should be prepared by all government. Even now, Influenza still kill tens of thousands every year. Perhaps more since some of the death perhaps being connected to other disease. However most of population already developed antibody for influenza strains.

COVID vaccine booster perhaps need to taken by some portion of population every year or every two years, just like flu shots in some area. Vacation drive need to be force toward population. I talk on situation in Indonesia that many population Pool avoiding vaccine shots, and sometimes need to be force to do it.

COVID will stay, just like influenza did after 1918 pandemic.

 

[tonnyc]

Quick post of various stuff that's been percolating in my head for a while.

Yeah, COVID-19 is going to stay. Our track record in eliminating a new disease once they've made the jump from animal to human is zero. Bird flu, SARS, heck, even the bubonic plague still exists. This doesn't necessarily means doom. All the other diseases are manageable and COVID-19 will be too in time.

It's likely that we will end up with needing regular vaccination every year. China's already studying what kind of improvement one can get with a third shot after 6 months. Pfizer's CEO already said it's likely a third shot will be needed within 12 months. Some experts disagree on this, but given the emergence of new strains, it's possible we will need variant-specific booster shots. UK is already talking with Astrazeneca about getting a vaccine targeted at variant alpha. Currently all the vaccines available are formulated against the original strain, and thus have reduced efficacy against the variants. But that just means we need to make vaccine variants that can better target the new variants. mRNA vaccine technology is supposed to be good at this.

Last month there was also news stating that the Pfizer vaccine now can be stored in a regular refrigerator for up to 30 days. This is after thawing, 2-4 C temperature. Anyone knows why this is? Did Pfizer changed their formulation or was their previous guideline (5 days in regular refrigerator) overly cautious and was relaxed after review? Either way it's good news because it eases the logistics for the Pfizer vaccine.

 

[CJR]

Yeah, COVID-19 is going to stay. Our track record in eliminating a new disease once they've made the jump from animal to human is zero. Bird flu, SARS, heck, even the bubonic plague still exists. This doesn't necessarily means doom. All the other diseases are manageable and COVID-19 will be too in time.

No cases of SARS have been reported in people since 2004.

The various strains of bird flu have not achieved sustained human to human transmission.

Bubonic plague repeatedly jumps from natural reservoirs to people, in recent years it's rarely produced sustained periods of human to human transmission.

MERS, similarly, repeatedly jumps from an animal reservoir but hasn't become endemic in humans.


In short, the issue isn't a new disease becoming endemic in humans, that doesn't happen too often. It's a new disease finding a new animal reservoir which has repeated close contact with humanity that's the bigger worry.

 

[ngatimozart]

No cases of SARS have been reported in people since 2004.

The various strains of bird flu have not achieved sustained human to human transmission.

Bubonic plague repeatedly jumps from natural reservoirs to people, in recent years it's rarely produced sustained periods of human to human transmission.

MERS, similarly, repeatedly jumps from an animal reservoir but hasn't become endemic in humans.


In short, the issue isn't a new disease becoming endemic in humans, that doesn't happen too often. It's a new disease finding a new animal reservoir which has repeated close contact with humanity.

And then there is Ebola. You definitely don't want that.

 

[John Fedup]

An update on the lab leak theory for COVID’s origin. Unlike SARS and MERS, no animal to human transfer link has been confirmed. The evidence for a gain of function modification of the virus seems compelling. If civil litigation were possible for damages even China’s large foreign reserves couldn’t even begin to cover damages.

Opinion | The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak

The Covid-19 pathogen has a genetic footprint that has never been observed in a natural coronavirus.

www.wsj.com

 

[ASSAIL]

An update on the lab leak theory for COVID’s origin. Unlike SARS and MERS, no animal to human transfer link has been confirmed. The evidence for a gain of function modification of the virus seems compelling. If civil litigation were possible for damages even China’s large foreign reserves couldn’t even begin to cover damages.

Opinion | The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak

The Covid-19 pathogen has a genetic footprint that has never been observed in a natural coronavirus.

www.wsj.com

You mean that now the Donald has left the White House and the Dems are in control (sort of) what has been a real possibility for the last 18months is true?
The US media and science community need condemning. To disregard the most likely source for so long because it was proffered by a leader they couldn’t abide is, excuse the pun, sickening.

 

[John Fedup]

You mean that now the Donald has left the White House and the Dems are in control (sort of) what has been a real possibility for the last 18months is true?
The US media and science community need condemning. To disregard the most likely source for so long because it was proffered by a leader they couldn’t abide is, excuse the pun, sickening.

To be fair, Trump is a confirmed pathological liar so few paid attention and he offered zip information. The momentum has been building that this virus is not natural as per my earlier post and other reports from late last year. Also, I recall a story about a senior Chinese security official who defected back in February. There was speculation he may have provided information that helped reinforce the lab origin. The CCP cover up is starting to fall apart. Suggestion for potential “belt and road” defaulters, all COVID costs will be deducted from our debt.

 

[John Fedup]

This Atlantic article discusses the COVID variants and worldwide vaccination efforts. Some disturbing data about how Delta is spreading in nations which had good containment measures but with low vaccination numbers are now being overwhelmed by Delta. With most of the world lacking vaccination, new variants will continue to emerge. The “back to normal” scenario envisioned in Europe and North America is premature.

The 3 Simple Rules That Underscore the Danger of Delta

Vaccines are still beating the variants, but the unvaccinated world is being pummeled.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[TaiChen]

An update on the lab leak theory for COVID’s origin. Unlike SARS and MERS, no animal to human transfer link has been confirmed. The evidence for a gain of function modification of the virus seems compelling. If civil litigation were possible for damages even China’s large foreign reserves couldn’t even begin to cover damages.

Opinion | The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak

The Covid-19 pathogen has a genetic footprint that has never been observed in a natural coronavirus.

www.wsj.com

A quick search on wiki says they were making a chimera virus from bat coronavirus and SARS to see if it can infect HeLa.

Wuhan Institute of Virology - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And even if the leak was accidental or intentional, nothing too surprising about that. Covid is cash cow for the vaccine industry. They already making annual booster shots worth trillions of profit.

 

[tonnyc]

@John Fedup Wall Street Journal opinion column is a nice material for a discussion on US economics but not for biology. They're also owned by News Corp. Frankly this narrative is extremely suspect. To use a science term, it's not falsifiable. For those who believe it, nothing can be produced that will satisfy them that it's not China's fault. Even if China magically change their mind and opens all their files to everyone, they'll still accuse China of hiding something. You can't prove a negative.

@TaiChen Trying to link the pandemy with the vaccine industry is unsupported speculation. Sure the vaccine industry benefits. So? TSMC's profit hits a record high in 2020. Computer chips of all kinds are in high demand as people buy computers and tablets to work from home and also for entertainment while they're stuck at home. Why not link the chip industry with the pandemy? How about online marketplaces? Amazon is making a killing as everyone orders online during the pandemy. Why not link Amazon with the pandemy too?

There's an Indonesian term called "cocoklogi" which really applies here. If you want to find evidence to suit your belief, you will find it by picking out facts that matches your belief (maybe apply a bit of creative interpretation) and discarding the rest. There's no good English translation, though cherry picking is closest. It's the kind logic that ends up in claiming that Indonesia is Atlantis.

 

[Boagrius]

There's an Indonesian term called "cocoklogi" which really applies here. If you want to find evidence to suit your belief, you will find it by picking out facts that matches your belief (maybe apply a bit of creative interpretation) and discarding the rest. There's no good English translation, though cherry picking is closest. It's the kind logic that ends up in claiming that Indonesia is Atlantis.

I think the closest thing you'd find to that would be the concept of confirmation bias:

Confirmation Bias In Psychology: Definition & Examples

Confirmation Bias is the tendency to look for information that supports, rather than rejects, one’s preconceptions, typically by interpreting evidence to confirm existing beliefs while rejecting or ignoring any conflicting data.

www.simplypsychology.org