France and Germany have signed a letter of intent to jointly develop a
new MPA. I think that this is the opportunity that Airbus are wanting to advance their
A320neo based MPA. An A319 / 320 based MPA was
first mooted in 2002 and so far hasn't progressed beyond being a paper aircraft. They have also decided to develop a
sixth generation combat aircraft. The intention is to have the aircraft flying by 2040. One is hopeful that they have learnt lessons from the A400M and NH90 programs. I will not hold my breath.
Honestly, I would not be holding my breath on the programme being a successful one either. At least not if the goal is to deliver a first tier, leading edge MPA. If both France and Germany were to do a 1:1 replacement for their current MPA fleets, that would still only amount to ~30 aircraft, which is half or less than the projected size of Japan's P-1 fleet. That fleet size is not going to provide a real economy of scale if advanced sensors are to be developed and integrated, either as part of the initial design or subsequent upgrades.
As mentioned previously (in the RNZAF thread) there are a number of Euro operators of 2nd tier maritime patrol/surveillance aircraft, as well as designs and production facilities for the same, which would suggest that apart from France and Germany, other nations are likely to look for what would be smaller, less expensive, and potentially even domestically produced maritime aircraft solutions. Not to mention that a flying replacement by 2040 is over 20 years away and around when I would anticipate the US might start examining options to upgrade or replace the P-8A Poseidon...
To me, this suggests that apart from France and Germany, there would be other MPA options available which would be at least competitive on price, capabilities, or both.
