Military Aviation News and Discussion

[Terran]

call me skeptical here. Don’t get me wrong I would be over the moon to see new Raptors taking to the sky but the 2018 Rand report on it basically tallied to 50 billion for a 197 unit order of F22R With initial delivery in the latter 2020s early 2030s.

Here’s The F-22 Production Restart Study The USAF Has Kept Secret For Over A Year

We finally see the study that was oddly classified on arrival and it has new relevance based on Japan's desire for a new stealth fighter.

www.thedrive.com

At the critical heart would be the reengineering of the F119 or a replacement there in, new radar, new combat systems as much of the Raptor has been... left a little dated.
Those parts are in need of rework as is due to the approaching mid service life. Yet new units to seems a stretch. Unless the Penetrating counter Air is a F22 that has been updated and simplified in construction perhaps, even the long mythical F22/F35 hybrid it seems unlikely that restart is going to happen. If the report is true then we must suspect something else is afoot.
1) I.E. If F22 sold to Israel then they would used F22 form USAF. Units replaced by PCA and F35 in USAF inventory.
2) that rather than F22 Israel would be getting PCA derived aircraft which may have aspects of F22.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

If the intention of selling F-22 to Israel is to increase its combat capabilities and provide an advantage over allied Arab states, then selling surplus, un-upgraded ones really beats the purpose as well.

We could be seeing a grand plan here to restart production, with means unknown yet.

 

[John Fedup]

Bottom line, Raptor production is never going to happen. The supply chain is busy with F-35 production and stuff we don’t know about. Then there is the resources going into the B-21 program and apparently the NGAD fighter (USAF). What about the USN, probably some secret development work underway for them? Even if foreign buyers came forth with $15 billion up front, existing and planned programs would be compromised because the extra manufacturing capacity isn’t in place.

 

[Terran]

That’s kinda my point.
If restarting F22 what happens with the Sixth Gen stuff? Additionally you wouldn’t restart F22 as was in last build spec. You will need new engines, radars and other bits and bobs. Total overhaul.
Some of those seems like it might be able to be ported from F35 into a new F22 maybe. Much of the F35 systems were derived from F22 including engines, radar electro optics. Yet that would still only make a better F22 potentially facing larger numbers of adversaries in similar performance aspects of stock F22 IE J20, SU57.
So you would want Sixth Gen tech.

I am not sure that the US doesn’t have the capacity to add in a naval and Airforce fighter program build. With Boeing still making Rhino Hornets and Strike Eagles, Lock Mart opening a new plant for export F16 , F35 production line going and Northrop Grumman working on B21 I think there is some capacity that could be taken up. But I suspect that fifth gen F22 redux and Naval FAXX would start to strain.
F22 is an excellent fighter and needing its mid life. It’s a bit more brawn than F35 as intended they were supposed to be partnered not opposed to each other. Raptor more designed for kinetics and internal payload. I suspect that aspects of it will be in NGAD. Aspects that would make sense for the IAF, who like the USAF use both.
Since we don’t know what the new century series is or NGAD I tails for all we know it could be a 3D printed F22 with lasers, F35 sensors and ADVANT Engines. Yet it could be more exotic. Or an entire series of aircraft types. Whatever the case this article leaves a ton more questions than answers boardering into the realm of fantasy.

 

[t68]

Trump approves selling F-22 Raptor to Israel — Saudi report

Newspaper says US is okaying sale of the advanced stealth aircraft to maintain the Jewish state's military superiority, after announcing plans to sell F-35s to UAE

www.timesofisrael.com

A Saudi report, eh?
Hmmm... smells like fake news.

I don't see how the F-22 program can be restarted especially when the US is already looking towards a 6th gen aircraft.
The hope was to maybe restart it with an F-35/F-22 hybrid for Japan, with Japanese funding. But that did not work.

But access to SBIRS is already a very good thing to have.

I think Trump might run into a small problem called the Obey Amendment

 

[swerve]

Trump's said before that he thinks that as president of the USA he has more or less absolute power. I hope that he was told by his advisers that he was wrong, but I think that he may have difficulty accepting the truth.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

That’s kinda my point.
If restarting F22 what happens with the Sixth Gen stuff? Additionally you wouldn’t restart F22 as was in last build spec. You will need new engines, radars and other bits and bobs. Total overhaul.
Some of those seems like it might be able to be ported from F35 into a new F22 maybe. Much of the F35 systems were derived from F22 including engines, radar electro optics. Yet that would still only make a better F22 potentially facing larger numbers of adversaries in similar performance aspects of stock F22 IE J20, SU57.
So you would want Sixth Gen tech.

I am not sure that the US doesn’t have the capacity to add in a naval and Airforce fighter program build. With Boeing still making Rhino Hornets and Strike Eagles, Lock Mart opening a new plant for export F16 , F35 production line going and Northrop Grumman working on B21 I think there is some capacity that could be taken up. But I suspect that fifth gen F22 redux and Naval FAXX would start to strain.
F22 is an excellent fighter and needing its mid life. It’s a bit more brawn than F35 as intended they were supposed to be partnered not opposed to each other. Raptor more designed for kinetics and internal payload. I suspect that aspects of it will be in NGAD. Aspects that would make sense for the IAF, who like the USAF use both.
Since we don’t know what the new century series is or NGAD I tails for all we know it could be a 3D printed F22 with lasers, F35 sensors and ADVANT Engines. Yet it could be more exotic. Or an entire series of aircraft types. Whatever the case this article leaves a ton more questions than answers boardering into the realm of fantasy.

Hate to nitpick but the NGAD is a purely USN program.
The USAF has a separate program called the PCA, likely driven by the fact that despite the visual similarity and same name, the navy and airforce versions of the F-35 were distinct, with a very high degree of unique components each.

 

[Terran]

They keep changing the names in reports I try to keep it straight but have seen USAF has NGAD or PCA well Navy as FAxx and NGAD.

 

[John Fedup]

Trump's said before that he thinks that as president of the USA he has more or less absolute power. I hope that he was told by his advisers that he was wrong, but I think that he may have difficulty accepting the truth.

He sort of does if checks and balances aren’t enforced by other branches of the government (Senate and Supreme Court).

Edit: revised to minimize political content. OT so back to discussing things that fly

 

[Ananda]

The whole point of greenlighting an F-22 sale to Israel is to gain an edge over Arab countries that might gain access to the F-35.

I know that. However this talk of giving F-22 to Israel just don't make sense in the point of no Production line of F-22 anymore.

Even for US own use, there's no appetite from Pentagon to bankroll reopening the line. Thus if this's have any merit, either someone else willing to Bankroll or it's just another Political talk from Trump.

Giving the edge for Israel can be given through more access to the software tech of F22 for example, while give the Saudi's only F22. This if say there's 'economics' merit on reopening F22 line.
Unless someone else willing to pay the bill to reopen the line, don't see that even US willing to do it. As you have point out, Israel will not be able to do it alone. The only other way is to get someone like the Saudi's in to the project.

Something about Trump, is in the end he always look from Business angles. If someone say to him that reopening F22 line can be done without using US money, perhaps he will do it.

 

[OPSSG]

General guidance to all, let’s return discussing Military Aviation.

 

[Ananda]

Studies on French-German Next Gen MPA to Start this Month - Naval News

The future French-German MPA program will be launched in the following week. The first phase of the studies will focus on the mission system.

www.navalnews.com

Euro/Airbus answer to P-8 seems gaining momentum. So far French and German agree to continue study on using A320 based as replacement for French Atlantique and German P3C.

However potential hurdle still significant seems that need to be faces. Potential French will use Falcon base MPA/MSA, or German will go with C295 MPA/MSA still there. Even decision by German can still go with already proven P-8.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Studies on French-German Next Gen MPA to Start this Month - Naval News

The future French-German MPA program will be launched in the following week. The first phase of the studies will focus on the mission system.

www.navalnews.com

Euro/Airbus answer to P-8 seems gaining momentum. So far French and German agree to continue study on using A320 based as replacement for French Atlantique and German P3C.

However potential hurdle still significant seems that need to be faces. Potential French will use Falcon base MPA/MSA, or German will go with C295 MPA/MSA still there. Even decision by German can still go with already proven P-8.

The A320 is flying around since the '80s, so its actually strange that it hasnt been developed yet into an MPA or AEW aircraft like Boeing did with the 737.

Italy has replaced the Atlantique with the ATR72 ASW, something similar Germany could also do with an own aircraft, the Do 328. It has a similar range as the ATR72, so why not?

But the Do 328 is out of production and the C295 has a superior rqnge, so a combination of A320 and C295/CN235 would be the best for European countries and the exportmarket.

 

[ngatimozart]

The A320 is flying around since the '80s, so its actually strange that it hasnt been developed yet into an MPA or AEW aircraft like Boeing did with the 737.

Italy has replaced the Atlantique with the ATR72 ASW, something similar Germany could also do with an own aircraft, the Do 328. It has a similar range as the ATR72, so why not?

But the Do 328 is out of production and the C295 has a superior rqnge, so a combination of A320 and C295/CN235 would be the best for European countries and the exportmarket.

We'll see. Airbus were looking at it with the A319 15 or so years ago and had it on their website. Then it just died a natural death. If they had of gone ahead with it they could've beaten Boeing to the market.

 

[Ananda]

Airbus were looking at it with the A319 15 or so years ago and had it on their website. Then it just died a natural death.

Problem seems still the same with current endeavors, who will be the launch customers. Airbus can only hope for Euro launch customers, but 15 years ago French still upgrading Atlantique, and German more or less do the similar thing with their P-3C. Britain seems still tinkering with Nimrod MRA4.

Now the timing seems right as long as French and German has commitment to be the launch customers. Without that the momentum will gone away again as before on A319 MPA concept.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The Aeronautica Militare will soon get the first T-345.
This new trainer will progressively replace the Aermacchi MB339A, used for Phase II and instructor training, and the MB339CD version which is used for Phase III training.

Developed from the SIAI Marchetti S211, the Aermacchi M345 is considerably smaller than the M-346, and it is intended to perform both the basic and advanced training syllabus, as well as tactical training functions, as an alternative to single-engined turboprop trqiners.

First Italian Air Force T-345 noted with code

First Italian Air Force T-345 noted with code The first T-345 ordered by the Aeronautica Militare (AMI, Italian Air Force) is apparently almost ready for delivery. On 29 October 20...

www.scramble.nl

 

[Big_Zucchini]

With American compensation for Israeli deterioration of its qualitative military edge over its unpredictable and unstable ally neighbors gaining media attention, and F-22 and MOP sales deemed very unlikely to say the least, do you think the US could give Israel access to other programs like the
MQ-25 Stingray aerial refueling vehicle and possibly the Gremlins?

 

[ngatimozart]

With American compensation for Israeli deterioration of its qualitative military edge over its unpredictable and unstable ally neighbors gaining media attention, and F-22 and MOP sales deemed very unlikely to say the least, do you think the US could give Israel access to other programs like the
MQ-25 Stingray aerial refueling vehicle and possibly the Gremlins?

The F-22 talk is absolute rubbish:

• There is absolutely no way that the USAF will give up any of their F-22 Raptors. They don't have anywhere enough as it is being something like about 400 aircraft short of the required strength.
• The F-22 is no longer being manufactured and IIRC the tooling and dies have been destroyed, so standing up a new production line is cost prohibitive.
• If by some fools chance a production line was stood up, the F-22 as designed and built is out of date so you would be manufacturing an obsolete platform.
  • In that case you would have to design and prototype a new variant which will add significantly to the cost.
• There is also the matter about the law that forbids the export of the F-22. At no point since 1998 has Congress seen any reason to overturn it.
• At this stage it would be more logical and fiscally prudent to commit resources towards the development and fielding of a 6th generation capability rather than rehashing a 30 year old one that was designed in the 1980s.
• Israel may have to start weaning itself off the American tit and learn to stand on its own 2 feet sooner rather than later if the US starts falling apart. No matter how powerful it thinks its lobby in Washington DC is, that will count for nothing if the US turns on itself. At the moment it's anyones guess.
• Israel has nuclear weapons and that is something that no-one else in the Middle East has. Maybe it should be a bit more open about them and that may cause certain people to think twice about attacking Israel either directly or through proxies.

The talk about the F-22 is just that put out by people who have absolutely no clue and no scruples. Until something appears on the DSCA site it isn't official as far as US arms exports go.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

My post centered around MQ-25 access, not the F-22. Here we all know the F-22 talk is rubbish.

Israel may have to start weaning itself off the American tit and learn to stand on its own 2 feet sooner rather than later if the US starts falling apart. No matter how powerful it thinks its lobby in Washington DC is, that will count for nothing if the US turns on itself. At the moment it's anyones guess.

For its size, economy, and population, I think Israel is already more than pulling its weight. But there's only so much it can do. Defense industries aren't particularly profitable compared with the civilian sector. If Israel invests all its capital into building an even more robust arms industry that can produce top of the line combat aircraft, it will eventually go bankrupt. That was attempted with the Lavi and didn't succeed even when it didn't have to pay for engine R&D.
There's a reason why so far only the US and Russia have complete defense industries, and why the only ones striving to achieve that as well are giants like China and India.
Another factor is what we contribute to the world. With good human capital, there's much we can contribute in tech like space exploration, scientific advancements, computer tech, agriculture, environmental protection tech, energy tech and so on. I don't think any country wants to build its heritage around being a weapons producer when it can contribute so much more. Protection is vital, but not at ALL costs.

Israel has nuclear weapons and that is something that no-one else in the Middle East has. Maybe it should be a bit more open about them and that may cause certain people to think twice about attacking Israel either directly or through proxies.

My take on Israel's nuclear ambiguity is that it does not strive to deter other countries with it, in a way that drives them to their own nuclear programs.
In 1973 was the last time Israel faced annihilation, and even when the idea of Egyptian and Syrian forces driving full speed to Tel Aviv was seen as quite realistic, Israel refrained from using its nuclear weapons, which according to reports were ready even by 1967 (albeit back then for demonstration, not aerial drop).


Israel is set to receive KC-46A tankers, large and non-stealthy aircraft for very long range missions. They are also technically problematic.
It could use small stealthy tankers like the MQ-25 for shorter range missions like recon over Iraq or a potential strike deep in Iran.

 

[Beholder]

With American compensation for Israeli deterioration of its qualitative military edge over its unpredictable and unstable ally neighbors gaining media attention, and F-22 and MOP sales deemed very unlikely to say the least, do you think the US could give Israel access to other programs like the
MQ-25 Stingray aerial refueling vehicle and possibly the Gremlins?

I don't think we need compensation in the first place.
Besides if there is compensation it will be no access to some new platform, it will be financing. For example of already existent desires of IDF, or some projects.
It's more political to keep US commitment itself afloat, then actual need. IMO