Middle East Defence & Security

[Feanor]

Another Iranian response to Israeli attacks seems to have begun. Time works against Israel

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1935171490288173506

I don't see how. Israel can stop this more or less anytime they want. Iran's ability to hit back is limited to throwing missiles at Israel. They can't force a decision to the war. They've lost the sky, and Israel can hit more or less what they want. Iran's capabilities aren't going to come back. There might be a depletion of Israeli PGM stocks, but they also chose this conflict, so presumably they planned accordingly. It would be different if there was a ground war component but as it is, it seems time is on Israel's side.

 

[Perun]

- Israel cannot attack in the entire depth of Iran. Iran can attack whatever it wants in Israel.
- Iran cannot attack Israeli jets over Iraq. Israel cannot defend itself against Iranian missiles.
This is the most Israel can do.
Iran has not yet used all models of missiles.
Without U.S. help (which Israel begs for on a daily basis), Israel's opportunities will not become greater. Iran has more missiles than targets in Israel.

 

[John Fedup]

Iran has more missiles than targets in Israel.

...and your source for this claim is ......??

 

[Feanor]

- Israel cannot attack in the entire depth of Iran. Iran can attack whatever it wants in Israel.

Can *attempt to attack. Israel has a good track record of intercepting Iranian missiles. Some get through, but certainly not all. It means there's a cost in intercepted missiles to achieve a guaranteed destruction of any target. This also ignores the loss of TELs by Iran that has reduced their potential volume of fire.

- Iran cannot attack Israeli jets over Iraq. Israel cannot defend itself against Iranian missiles.

It cannot intercept all. But I think if we look at interception rates we will find that Israel intercepts a far larger potion of inbounds then Iran. And it's much cheaper to fire an air-launched munition from Iraq into Iran then it is to fire an entire ballistic missiles from Iran into Israel.

This is the most Israel can do.

I'm not sure that's true. Israeli agents operated from within Iran to hit many targets. It is possible Israel can insert ground elements into Iran? I think yes. Whether it's a good idea is another story. Israel can also choose to fly their jets into Iran, and risk losing them. If they can roll back Iran's IADS far enough, this could be a viable option.

Iran has not yet used all models of missiles.

What's the significance of the models of missiles it hasn't used compared to the ones they have? A ballistic missile is a ballistic missile. It's a way to hit a target with a large payload from far away. If Iran had the ability to shut down Israeli air operations with missile strikes, surely they'd be doing it by now, not holding it back for some later date while Israel bombs them. If Iran doesn't have the ability to shut down Israeli air operations, then what's the significance of more missiles tossed at more targets? Is it your opinion that Iran has sufficient missile stock to achieve WMD-like effects on Israeli cities (well sufficient missile stocks and the ability to launch them)?

Without U.S. help (which Israel begs for on a daily basis), Israel's opportunities will not become greater. Iran has more missiles than targets in Israel.

Very true but in the worst way possible. It appears that Iran can't effective target Israeli leadership or military assets. This is why they have more missiles then targets. It would be worth while for Iran to exchange 20 of their missiles for a single Israeli jet destroyed on the ground, or a single Israeli SAM taken out. But we don't have good evidence of any of those happening.

 

[Perun]

...and your source for this claim is ......??

Open sources lists number of Iranian missiles from 1500 up to 3000

 

[the concerned]

Do the US still have THAAD systems in Israel

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Do the US still have THAAD systems in Israel

Yes.

 

[seaspear]

It could be likely that Iran had many more launchers than missiles and the destruction of these slowed down Iran's ability to use its missiles effectively ,there were quite a number of reports on numbers of ballistic missiles but not on launchers Israel claims to have destroyed most of them in this article

Israeli Airstrikes Blunt Iranian Long-Range Ballistic Missile Threat (Updated)

As Israel claims to have destroyed a large portion of Iran's long-range missile launchers, the number of weapons fired in each barrage has also plummeted.

www.twz.com

 

[Feanor]

Iranian missiles flying over and into Israel certainly does not negate in any way Israel's aerial superiority over western Iran and Tehran as very clearly stated by the IDF. It just means there is no supremacy.
The aerial superiority in this case however is clear and undeniable. Iran has already lost a reported 50% of its TELs, the real bottleneck of its launch capability. And it's perfectly fine to be skeptical of that figure, so you can easily observe that with every passing night Iran fires fewer and fewer missiles. From 190 in the first night, to 75 on the next night, and now 2 consecutive days of about 20-30.

I'm curious, what's happened with this trend? Do we see a further reduction of Iranian missile launches? Or is it holding at 20-30 missiles per night?

 

[SinisterMinister]

It could be likely that Iran had many more launchers than missiles and the destruction of these slowed down Iran's ability to use its missiles effectively ,there were quite a number of reports on numbers of ballistic missiles but not on launchers Israel claims to have destroyed most of them in this article

Israeli Airstrikes Blunt Iranian Long-Range Ballistic Missile Threat (Updated)

As Israel claims to have destroyed a large portion of Iran's long-range missile launchers, the number of weapons fired in each barrage has also plummeted.

www.twz.com

I find this to be an absurd claim. TELs are incredibly simple and Iran no doubt had very deep stocks. What is the actual number of sorties the the IAF can operate per day? The math doesn't work

Not to mention that they only operate over western Iran. Plenty of TELs and missiles elsewhere.

Iran has been launching what seem to be relatively consistent numbers of missiles daily since around day 3, and video footage indicates consistently grouped launches.

The simplest explanation for why there haven't been more is that they are planning for a long war, they need to conserve as many missiles as possible for attacks on American bases, and they are also waiting to up the intensity until interceptors stocks are depleted (which could within two weeks according to the WSJ)

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-is-running-low-on-defensive-interceptors-official-says-fd64163d

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I'm curious, what's happened with this trend? Do we see a further reduction of Iranian missile launches? Or is it holding at 20-30 missiles per night?

I'm in the shelter right now.
Usually we have 2 separate salvos between 20:00 - 04:00 every day. But today it was just one at 07:00 local time.
I'm now seeing reports of a large barrage. They probably consolidated to break the pattern you saw on that graph.
Reports varying between 4 to 7 impact points, could be because of time difference between reports.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1935555917032075605

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I find this to be an absurd claim. TELs are incredibly simple and Iran no doubt had very deep stocks. What is the actual number of sorties the the IAF can operate per day? The math doesn't work

They are simple, but I would not immediately derive from it that they had deep stocks.
If TELs were kept in the open, in some large storage facility, they'd be easy to destroy. If they're kept inside UGFs, alongside missiles, then there's limited space to hold them.

Number of sorties is not a good indicator. It seems most of the TEL hunting footage comes from drones, some of which can fly to Iran, do a whole loop around it, and come back.

Not to mention that they only operate over western Iran. Plenty of TELs and missiles elsewhere.

Perhaps, but not without drawbacks. To launch from "elsewhere", Iran would have to use liquid fueled missiles, with much longer prep time and thus exposure, or less reliable/effective configurations of solid fueled ones.

 

[Feanor]

They are simple, but I would not immediately derive from it that they had deep stocks.
If TELs were kept in the open, in some large storage facility, they'd be easy to destroy. If they're kept inside UGFs, alongside missiles, then there's limited space to hold them.

Number of sorties is not a good indicator. It seems most of the TEL hunting footage comes from drones, some of which can fly to Iran, do a whole loop around it, and come back.

There's another option. They have plenty, but they're kept hidden to avoid destruction and the bottle neck is not the quantity of physical TELs but their ability to come out of hiding to launch their missiles.

I'm in the shelter right now.
Usually we have 2 separate salvos between 20:00 - 04:00 every day. But today it was just one at 07:00 local time.
I'm now seeing reports of a large barrage. They probably consolidated to break the pattern you saw on that graph.
Reports varying between 4 to 7 impact points, could be because of time difference between reports.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1935555917032075605

4-7 landings but how many launches? If they're holding at 20-30 per night, it would suggest the bottle neck is not the continued loss of TELs but maybe the ability to operate them. If it was purely destruction of TELs we would expect the number of launches to decline further.

 

[SeaplanePaul]

Repeated flights of Communist Chinese Regime military aircraft, Kupeng Y-20 cargo carriers, each capable of carrying up to 66 tons of missiles and nuclear weapons, have been reported covertly flying into Iran.

What is so important for the Chinese Communist Party to immediately deliver into the hot warzone of Iran that it would risk sending flights of its largest cargo carrying aircraft, each valued at over US$160 million, into the most dangerous airspace on the planet?

 

[Feanor]

Repeated flights of Communist Chinese Regime military aircraft, Kupeng Y-20 cargo carriers, each capable of carrying up to 66 tons of missiles and nuclear weapons, have been reported covertly flying into Iran.

What is so important for the Chinese Communist Party to immediately deliver into the hot warzone of Iran that it would risk sending flights of its largest cargo carrying aircraft, each valued at over US$160 million, into the most dangerous airspace on the planet?

First off, post moved to correct thread. Second-off, do you have a source for the Y-20 flights? We have some information on Boeing flights from earlier.