Libya Thread 2.0

This is just my opinion but the problem with this deployment of combat aircraft is the fact that these 2 warring sides aren't the only players . Obviously living in the UK I have read were the US has launched anti terrorist air strikes in the country and as technically these are illegal weapons when do they consider these aircraft a threat they can't tolerate
 

Feanor

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This is just my opinion but the problem with this deployment of combat aircraft is the fact that these 2 warring sides aren't the only players . Obviously living in the UK I have read were the US has launched anti terrorist air strikes in the country and as technically these are illegal weapons when do they consider these aircraft a threat they can't tolerate
I mean... the LNA was already operating combat aircraft prior to this, including manned jets. And the Turks should be able to deal with the MiG-29s themselves, if they choose to escalate to match. If the US decides to weigh in, they certainly could decide the issue in either direction, but given the mess of competing interests between Turkey, the UAE, France, etc. I'm not sure the US wants to.
 

Feanor

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Update.

As Khaftar's forces regroup, more and more material surfaces showing Russian PMCs. Among other things we see an export model of the Tigr armored car, at least two unidentified armored vehicles, looking fairly clean for an improvised design, based on an Ural truck chassis, and at least one Pantsyr AA on a Kamaz chassis. It appears that the Bani-Walid base is their current location. Some sources claim up to 1500 fighters are there under the auspices of a Russian company.


In their retreat, Russian PMCs have left behind some combat engineer equipment, including some land mines. Information surfaced earlier that a Russian fighter was killed in Libya, but it turned out to be a Serb from Kosovo, Aleksa Durich. Note it's entirely possible that he was still working for a Russian PMC.


The al-Jufra airbase is being refitted to house a larger contingent of manned aircraft, possibly with either foreign military or mercenary pilots. The upgrades to the airbase include new radars for airspace control. In addition to the new MiG-29s, the base also houses older MiG-23s, a type operated by the LNA for some time. So far it appears 6 MiG-29s have been rebased there. There are also reports of helicopters.

Some of the footage from the base reveals a hodge podge of different gear, and fighters there.


It appears that the Su-24s are at Al Khadim airbase, while the MiGs are at al-Jufra. It's unclear whether this is a permanent arrangement or just a pit-stop.


US AFRICOM claims there are 14 Russian aircraft, as well as issuing a press statement regarding the deployment of Russian aircraft to Libya.


There are unsubstantiated claims that Turkey may soon or has already deployed some F-16s to Misurata airport. I would treat these claims with a grain of salt. Given the poor opsec, and the plethora of photos and video from this conflict, I strongly suspect that we will know if the Turks decide to deploy their own combat jets.


A look at Turkish and Italian ships off the Libyan coast.


A shot of a Turkish combat team in Libya.


The LNA continues to shoot down UAVs, including friendly Wing Loongs.


Some sources claim that 10 MiG-29s, 10 Su-24Ms, and 6 Mi-35 helos were purchased by the UAE for the LNA. Allegedly there are also requests from the LNA for BMP-3s, and Khrizantema ATGMs.


A rare T-62MV has been spotted in Syria. The type is not often seen outside of ex-Soviet states that have left over stockpiles. Most recently some were re-activated in Russia for use as demonstration targets for a foreign delegation. Considering the green paintjob and the tank type I can't help but wonder if the vehicle was sourced from Russia, possibly through Belarus.

 

Feanor

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Update.

Khaftar's forces are being pushed back from Tripoli both southward and eastward. In the east the GNA has attempted to attack Sirt, but after an attempted offensive has been pushed back. There are reports of mysterious aircraft, both fixed-wing and rotary. There are also reports of the Su-24s and MiG-29s flying sorties. The GNA is claiming that they are ready to talk about a ceasefire, but only if Khaftar hands over Sirt and Al-Jufra airbase. The GNA has captured considerable trophies, includign a Russian T-62MV. Another Pantsyr-1S has been destroyed inside a hangar, possible by Turkish missile strikes. There are reports of Russian PMCs set up near Sirt.


Khaftar claims that there was a deal to pull his troops back 60 kms from Tripoli, after which the front would be stabilized, and that foreign powers acted as guarantors of this agreement but have failed.


Meanwhile Egyptian ground and air forces are massing on the Libyan border. It's unclear whether there is a red line past which they will intervene directly, or if this is just a show of force.


A look at land mines being used in Libya, both eastern and western (Russian, Chinese, German, Belgian).


Turkish UAVs keep getting shot down over Libya. There reports that one was shot down by a MiG-29.

 

ngatimozart

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Erdogan's claiming that he's made agreements with Trump that will "bring a new era" to the Libyan civil war Libya's war: Erdogan says 'agreements' reached with Trump. What these 'agreements' are have not been disclosed, but it must be noted that both leaders have been known to be economical with the truth and Erdogan is not above taking a page out of Trump's playbook and stir things for his own advantage.
 

Sandhi Yudha

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Seems that some Turkish soldiers lost their lives in this air strike.



I dont understand what foreign countries wants to achieve in Libiya, is there so much oil in the ground?

Edit: Yes.
 
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Its typical countries like the UAE won't see the Yemeni crisis through but are happy to poke their nose in Libya . I must be nieve as isn't the government in Tripoli the one recognised by the UN. You have to ask is the UN pointless as it seems no one accepts anything it says.
 

ngatimozart

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Its typical countries like the UAE won't see the Yemeni crisis through but are happy to poke their nose in Libya . I must be nieve as isn't the government in Tripoli the one recognised by the UN. You have to ask is the UN pointless as it seems no one accepts anything it says.
I believe that the UAE withdrew from Yemen because of the incompetence of the Saudi military leadership.

The real problem with the UN is the five permanent members of the Security Council who have veto powers. If they didn't have that veto, then the Security Council would have stronger enforcement powers.
 

Feanor

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I believe that the UAE withdrew from Yemen because of the incompetence of the Saudi military leadership.

The real problem with the UN is the five permanent members of the Security Council who have veto powers. If they didn't have that veto, then the Security Council would have stronger enforcement powers.
Did they really withdraw though? What's going on on Sokotra? ;) I think they changed their objectives based on the Saudi failures, which makes sense.
 

swerve

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Socotra is an island, well out of the reach of the Houthis & far enough from Saudi Arabia for the Saudis to be willing to leave it to the UAE, & it's easy to see why the UAE sees it as useful. It's in an excellent position for a military base, close to major shipping lanes (perfect for fighting Somali pirates from, for example) & not vulnerable to guerrillas as long as you keep the locals sweet, which the UAE seems to be trying to do, dishing out plenty of aid.
 
With recent reports that Egypt is now actively considering invading libya on behalf of the LNA . If the Egyptian forces directly attack Turkish forces in Libya does Turkey have the right to call on Nato to defend it. To me whether other members of NATO like it they all signed up to accept the rules so if Turkey did call for article 5 and NATO didn't respond that basically ends the alliance.
 

Todjaeger

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With recent reports that Egypt is now actively considering invading libya on behalf of the LNA . If the Egyptian forces directly attack Turkish forces in Libya does Turkey have the right to call on Nato to defend it. To me whether other members of NATO like it they all signed up to accept the rules so if Turkey did call for article 5 and NATO didn't respond that basically ends the alliance.
The quick answer would be, "no," Turkey would not be able to invoke Article 5, because the areas where Article 5 is applicable is covered in Article 6. If Egypt were to attack Turkish naval assets in the Mediterranean Sea, Article 5 could be invoked. However, Article 5 does not cover the forces on the continent of Africa, South America, or land in ocean areas south of the Tropic of Cancer. I mention the last because the British encountered this issue when Argentina invaded the British territories in the South Atlantic in 1982, resulting in the Falklands War.

Here are the NATO articles for further reading by those interested.
 

ngatimozart

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The quick answer would be, "no," Turkey would not be able to invoke Article 5, because the areas where Article 5 is applicable is covered in Article 6. If Egypt were to attack Turkish naval assets in the Mediterranean Sea, Article 5 could be invoked. However, Article 5 does not cover the forces on the continent of Africa, South America, or land in ocean areas south of the Tropic of Cancer. I mention the last because the British encountered this issue when Argentina invaded the British territories in the South Atlantic in 1982, resulting in the Falklands War.

Here are the NATO articles for further reading by those interested.
Turkey may try to invoke Article 5 if Egypt attacks its ships in the Mediterranean, however said attacks would be in the African waters of the Mediterranean, so Article 5 may not apply. However Turkey is supporting the UN backed government in Tripoli whilst Egypt has been supporting the opposition government in Tobruk. France has been supporting the Tobruk government and supplying arms to them. Turkey has really annoyed the hell out of NATO and NATO may take the attitude that it may not have to respond to Turkey's invocation of Article 5. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
 

Sandhi Yudha

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Turkey may try to invoke Article 5 if Egypt attacks its ships in the Mediterranean, however said attacks would be in the African waters of the Mediterranean, so Article 5 may not apply. However Turkey is supporting the UN backed government in Tripoli whilst Egypt has been supporting the opposition government in Tobruk. France has been supporting the Tobruk government and supplying arms to them. Turkey has really annoyed the hell out of NATO and NATO may take the attitude that it may not have to respond to Turkey's invocation of Article 5. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
With other words, NATO country Turkey supports UN acknowledged government in Tripoli, while NATO country France goes against UN backed government.
That means NATO vs NATO.

Its such a mess, like in Syria, Yemen and other parts of the Middle-East. One thing is sure, its not for the people of Libya, to spread freedom and democracy, its all about oil, power and influence.
 
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John Fedup

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With other words, NATO country Turkey supports UN acknowledged government in Tripoli, while NATO country France goes against UN backed government.
That means NATO vs NATO.

Its such a mess, like in Syria, Yemen and other parts of the Middle-East. One thing is sure, its not for the people of Libya, to spread freedom and democracy, its all about oil, power and influence.
I would suggest cluster f$&@ rather than mess to describe this situation and yes, it is about oil, power, and influence. This could be another nail in NATO’s coffin (as if it didn’t have enough already).
 

swerve

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Turkey may try to invoke Article 5 if Egypt attacks its ships in the Mediterranean, however said attacks would be in the African waters of the Mediterranean, so Article 5 may not apply. However Turkey is supporting the UN backed government in Tripoli whilst Egypt has been supporting the opposition government in Tobruk. France has been supporting the Tobruk government and supplying arms to them. Turkey has really annoyed the hell out of NATO and NATO may take the attitude that it may not have to respond to Turkey's invocation of Article 5. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
Article 6 says "Mediterranean Sea", & doesn't specify any subdivisions.

Article 6
For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:
  • on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France (2), on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
  • on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.
(2) On January 16, 1963, the North Atlantic Council noted that insofar as the former Algerian Departments of France were concerned, the relevant clauses of this Treaty had become inapplicable as from July 3, 1962.
 

Feanor

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Update.

MiG-29s have been active around Sirt, and elsewhere, including a reported SEAD strike against Turkish positions in Al-Watiya. It's unclear if Su-24s were involved. Some sources claim that Egyptian Mirages were in play. Reports on Turkish casualties are unreliable.


An LNA UAV, Wing Loong, striking GNA fighters.


Footage of a Pantsyr-1S firing on a UAV.


A statistic on alleged friendly fire incidents by LNA forces against their own UAVs.


The LNA has declared a no-fly zone over Sirt, which could presumably be enforced against UAVs by the MiG-29s and SAMs. Pantsyrs were seen being rebased there. Scud missiles were also seen moving in the area, though its unclear whether they are operational.


A destroyed Pantsyr getting hauled away by GNA forces.


Turkey has deployed considerable additional assets to Libya, including tanks, EOD, EW (Koral) and air defense (including Korkut AAA). The 4th link has some interior photos of the Turkish commander center in Libya.


Some footage of GNA forces.


Chinese MANPADS through Turkey have made it their way to the GNA. This is ironic as they may be used against Chinese UAVs flying for Khaftar and the LNA.


Some images of Russian PMCs in Libya. It's unclear how many of them there are, reports vary from several hundred to several thousand, but an often repeated number seems to be about 1500.


A US AFRICOM release on the presence of Russian PMCs in Libya.


Some footage of Su-24s at Al-Jufra.


An LNA L-39 made a forced landing in Niger.


The LNA appears to have gotten it's hands on P-15 AShMs, and have performed a test launch from an improvised platform.


Some brand new Kamaz trucks are seen among Khaftar's forces.


A Russian An-124 flew to Libya following a very strange route, and carefully skirting Turkish airspace. There are reports that it has delivered an S-300 to the LNA.

 

ngatimozart

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There are also images appearing on social media in libya showing what appears to be an S300 system. Itegrates with the timing of the AN124 arrival


If so, Another significant escalation.

Just as long as the resident in the White House doesn't decide to involve the US in another war. Hopefully Turkey has bitten off more than it can chew here and gets a bloody nose.
 

Feanor

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There are also images appearing on social media in libya showing what appears to be an S300 system. Itegrates with the timing of the AN124 arrival


If so, Another significant escalation.

Actually things are getting murkier. The Russian An-124 that was reported to have landed in Libya apparently landed in Alexandria, Egypt. Which of course doesn't negate the photos of the S-300 in Libya, and it's not like you can't drive the trucks across the Egyptian border. It's also possible that the plane turned off it's transponder for the final leg of the journey but at this point it's all speculation. All except the photos that is.

 
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