Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues

SolarisKenzo

Active Member
2 more KC-46s Is the bare minimum to have at least a couple of tankers always ready...
A country like Japan needs at least a dozen Pegasus...
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Agreed. Realistically, in the medium term, Japan needs to rationalise to a fleet of 10 to 12 KC-46A tankers; France operates 12 A330MRTT tankers and even Australia operates 7. The current number of tankers that Japan operates can’t support the sorties that the JASDF needs to fly at war.

One possible way forward is to modernise the 4 KC-767Js with like systems, when the KC-46A SDD matures.
The Italians are buying six KC-46 & trading in their KC-767s (for conversion to 767 freighters, I think), to give commonality & simplify logistics, having examined & rejected buying two KC-46 & bringing the KC-767s up to the same standard. It'll be interesting to see whether the JASDF carries on with a mixed fleet of 10, modernises the KC-767s or does something similar to the Italians.

Japan also has several KC-130. Eight? nine? JASDF has a couple of KC-130H & the JMSDF has six refurbished KC-130R bought in 2012. Again, it'll be interesting to see what they do about replacements.
 
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Redlands18

Well-Known Member
JAUKUS a possibility?
Marles and Wong have arrived in Japan after the AUSMIN talks in Washington and reportedly are pushing for Japan to join AUKUS. Australia and Japan are definitely increasing their Defence cooperation and a deployment to Japan of RAAF F-35s is planned for 2023.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
JAUKUS a possibility?
Marles and Wong have arrived in Japan after the AUSMIN talks in Washington and reportedly are pushing for Japan to join AUKUS. Australia and Japan are definitely increasing their Defence cooperation and a deployment to Japan of RAAF F-35s is planned for 2023.
This has to be stopped. The world cannot handle more acronyms -- and they keep getting longer!
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
JAUKUS a possibility?
Marles and Wong have arrived in Japan after the AUSMIN talks in Washington and reportedly are pushing for Japan to join AUKUS. Australia and Japan are definitely increasing their Defence cooperation and a deployment to Japan of RAAF F-35s is planned for 2023.
I've copied your post over to the ADF thread and answered there.
This has to be stopped. The world cannot handle more acronyms -- and they keep getting longer!
You'll find sympathy between $hit and syphilis in the dictionary. :D
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Japan scraps pacifist postwar defence strategy to counter China threat

The budget includes:
  • ¥5tn to buy Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US, expand the range of its domestic surface-to-ship cruise missiles and develop hypersonic weapons
  • ¥3tn will be spent on enhancing integrated air and missile defence capabilities, including a radar upgrade for the Patriot missile system to counter hypersonic weapons
  • Circa ¥2tn will be allocated to strengthening Japan’s space and cyber defence capabilities, creating a 20,000-strong cyber team within the Self-Defense Force and the defence ministry to prevent cyber attacks before they occur
  • ¥15tn will strengthen the SDF’s basic needs including ammunition stockpiles and fuel tanks
  • Japan will also create a framework outside its official development assistance programme that will allow it to provide funding to strengthen maritime capabilities and military-related infrastructure in south-east Asian countries
Money to build stockpiles of ammunition and fuel is very prudent. It's great to develop shiny new weapons, but if you don't have enough supplies you'll run out very quickly. Japan needs resilience.

On the issue of the Tomohawks, Japan may be ordering between 400 and 500.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Japan scraps pacifist postwar defence strategy to counter China threat

The budget includes:
  • ¥5tn to buy Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US, expand the range of its domestic surface-to-ship cruise missiles and develop hypersonic weapons
  • ¥3tn will be spent on enhancing integrated air and missile defence capabilities, including a radar upgrade for the Patriot missile system to counter hypersonic weapons
  • Circa ¥2tn will be allocated to strengthening Japan’s space and cyber defence capabilities, creating a 20,000-strong cyber team within the Self-Defense Force and the defence ministry to prevent cyber attacks before they occur
  • ¥15tn will strengthen the SDF’s basic needs including ammunition stockpiles and fuel tanks
  • Japan will also create a framework outside its official development assistance programme that will allow it to provide funding to strengthen maritime capabilities and military-related infrastructure in south-east Asian countries
Money to build stockpiles of ammunition and fuel is very prudent. It's great to develop shiny new weapons, but if you don't have enough supplies you'll run out very quickly. Japan needs resilience.

On the issue of the Tomohawks, Japan may be ordering between 400 and 500.
A DW item on the spend up including interview with a former advisor to former Japanese PM Abe. What he has to say is quite interesting.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
A DW item on the spend up including interview with a former advisor to former Japanese PM Abe. What he has to say is quite interesting.
Big shifts in spending and policy.

Japan is focusing strongly now on munitions and fuel stores. That is where they believe they can spend money with the time they have. They have a reasonable force in platforms, but now will focus heavily on increasing stockpiles and gaining more long range weapons. They will try and acquire a large TLAM pool as quick as possible. I don't think TLAM is going to be hugely effective against China, but it is a long ranged weapon.

The Japanese and South Korean positions are pretty difficult. Any conflict and SK will be pretty much completely busy dealing with North Korea. Japan will have to fend off China and Russia. That isn't a nice place to be.

These aren't random increases, there are things happening that are triggering these kind of actions and measures.
 

Scott Elaurant

Well-Known Member
On Friday 16 December Japan announced a major overhaul of its National Defence Strategy. Critically this includes developing a “counterstrike” capability based on long range missiles such as Harpoon, and a doubling of spending to 2% of GDP over the next five years. This will make an interesting comparison with Australia’s new force posture In March 2023.

There is reporting of the announcement here:

The strategy is here.

Note there are some interesting maps on pages 4 onwards that descibe where new shore based anti ship and anti air missile batteries. The plan seems to be to build SSM and SAM batteries on islands stretching south towards Taiwan (the Senkakus).

Presumably this will also allow arming of Japanese NSDF ships and subs with Tomahawk.
 
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Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Japan is focusing strongly now on munitions and fuel stores. That is where they believe they can spend money with the time they have. They have a reasonable force in platforms, but now will focus heavily on increasing stockpiles and gaining more long range weapons. They will try and acquire a large TLAM pool as quick as possible. I don't think TLAM is going to be hugely effective against China, but it is a long ranged weapon.
I think it's accepted that TLAM is a stop-gap weapon until the upgraded Type 12 missile is produced, which I think will be developed in the next few years. But TLAM would be useful against North Korea, and potentially Russia and China if their air defences became degraded. At the very least it's a sign they can no longer assume Japan will be unable to fight back and therefore potentially would dissuade an attack.
 
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StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
At the very least it's a sign they can no longer assume Japan will be unable to fight back and therefore potentially would dissuade an attack.
It gives Japan a day 1 solution and options.

As soon as things start damaging civilian and military targets in Japan, Japan can strike back in turn and strike military targets in North Korea. The fact that Japan wants this capability, and the US is willing to give them this capability speaks volumes about the state of the world.

The type12 will no doubt be acquired in numbers, TLAM is a stop gap, but its a big one. It will also take some pressure off the Type12 development, so perhaps they can focus on bringing something new and improved to the table, not just a tlam clone.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Noah Barkin on Taiwan and EU/Germany Watching China in Europe - January 2023 | Strengthening Transatlantic Cooperation (gmfus.org) :

We learned last month that Germany’s Education Minister Bettina Stark-Watzinger is considering a trip to Taiwan in early 2023. This would be the first visit by a German minister in more than a quarter of a century. One German diplomat described the message to China as: “If you continue down the path of confrontation, then you are going to see more, and not less, engagement with Taiwan.”

I learned from several officials who were briefed on Scholz’s conversation with Xi in Beijing in November that the chancellor was unusually frank with China’s leader about the consequences of a military intervention in Taiwan for the bilateral economic relationship. “It was an incredibly clear message,” one diplomat told me. “No Chinese leader has ever heard anything like this from a German chancellor on an issue of core interest to Beijing.” I was told that European Council President Charles Michel delivered a similar message on Taiwan when he met Xi a month later. This reflects a growing sense in the big European capitals that Taiwan’s future is of vital interest to them, too.
1. I am not sure if it is a good idea to send a German minister to Taiwan in early 2023 -- no doubt the CCP will use this as an excuse to further escalate.

2. It is however a good idea to send a clear message to China that
a) China's path of confrontation will lead to more and not less engagement with Taiwan (but IMO should take a different form than high-profile visits)
b) A Chinese military intervention in Taiwan will have severe consequences for the "bilateral economic relationship". I wish Germany/EU would go one step further and tell China that Taiwan would also receive significant material and financial support in case of an unprovoked invasion. And leave it open what kind of support (food, medicines, intelligence, military equipment, who knows).
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
|"In a statement, Taiwanese missile developer the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology said the device had been shipped to Switzerland by the company that had originally supplied it to the Taiwanese military.
From there it was diverted for repair at the manufacturer's Asia maintenance centre in the Chinese city of Qingdao, it said."|

Its not only painful that a sensitive and sophisticated military instrument ended up in communist china, but is also sad that European countries do everything in china, like they can't do anything self anymore in Europe.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Its not only painful that a sensitive and sophisticated military instrument ended up in communist china, but is also sad that European countries do everything in china, like they can't do anything self anymore in Europe.
It doesn't seem to have been part of the missile system, so probably no harm done. Although it is a cautionary tale about what might happen to parts when sent for servicing, especially if they're dual-use.
 

TayJG

Member
Noah Barkin on Taiwan and EU/Germany Watching China in Europe - January 2023 | Strengthening Transatlantic Cooperation (gmfus.org) :



1. I am not sure if it is a good idea to send a German minister to Taiwan in early 2023 -- no doubt the CCP will use this as an excuse to further escalate.

2. It is however a good idea to send a clear message to China that
a) China's path of confrontation will lead to more and not less engagement with Taiwan (but IMO should take a different form than high-profile visits)
b) A Chinese military intervention in Taiwan will have severe consequences for the "bilateral economic relationship". I wish Germany/EU would go one step further and tell China that Taiwan would also receive significant material and financial support in case of an unprovoked invasion. And leave it open what kind of support (food, medicines, intelligence, military equipment, who knows).
I think people really have to question if Taiwan is not unsustainably losing the qualitative balance of power in the air with China. I mean, China is rolling out the J-20's, and it won't be long before the J-35 start's going into production IMO.

In the mean time, Taiwan has gotten what in the past years? 66 new F-16 C/D Block 70?

I don't think it's enough. The question has to be asked: what is Taiwan's plan to have some kind of air force that can do something against PLAAF? What's the plan for Taiwanese 5th gen fighters?
 

swerve

Super Moderator
66 new F-16V on order & up to 141 (as many as are fit for it) older F-16 being upgraded to F-16V.

Taiwan has difficulty buying the latest & best aircraft. The USA was reluctant even to sell new F-16V for a long time. It's improving its surface to air missiles, precision artillery, etc.
 

TayJG

Member
66 new F-16V on order & up to 141 (as many as are fit for it) older F-16 being upgraded to F-16V.

Taiwan has difficulty buying the latest & best aircraft. The USA was reluctant even to sell new F-16V for a long time. It's improving its surface to air missiles, precision artillery, etc.
They will be destroyed by J-20 and J-35.
 
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