Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues

Musashi_kenshin

Active Member
I know an 81 year old who has a vivid memory of the war.
Sure, although I did say 80. I accept at some point a child would have been old enough to remember the war.

It was just a rough cut-off point to demonstrate that the vast majority of the population won't have strong personal feelings of the war other than what they've been told. That's a big change from 20 or even 10 years ago, when a much larger group of people had to live through it.
 
Last edited:

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yep, I posted about it in the China Geopolitical & Geostrategic thread last week. What now makes it more interesting is that it's the Deputy PM and Finance Minister Taro Aso making the comments. Last week it was the Minister of Defence Yasuhide Nakayama, so IMHO this has the appearance of a new Japanese policy being floated and one that will be contentious both at home and in three particular nations; the PRC, North Korea, and with the current South Korean administration. Undoubtedly Vlad the Red will also put his roubles worth and oar into it as well, decrying Japanese militaristic adventurism.
1. I suspect that PM Yoshihide Suga will not survive long in his post before domestic imperatives push forward a new LDP leader. But no matter what happens at a domestic politics level, Japan has woken up to a new dawn at the G7, where everyone (NATO included) wants to pivot to the East — with the French as first movers amongst the Europeans. In May 2021, Japan held a joint military drill with US and French troops in the country's southwest, the defence minister said, as China's actions in regional waters raise concern. The exercise, running from May 11 to 17, is the first large-scale exercise in Japan involving ground troops from all three countries, the JGSDF said in a statement.

2. As the most capable navy in the East, the JMSDF will be swamped with offers from European navies to collaborate. As Kurt Campbell recently explained that a “new cold war” was a not a suitable way to frame the U.S.-China relationship, even though it has adversarial aspects. “There will be periods of uncertainty — perhaps even periods of occasional raised tensions,” he said.

3. IMHO, what matters to China is the actual performance of Japan in concert with the US, at actually pushing-back firmly but not in a manner that shows over reaction to Chinese attempts to advance their interests [within the 1st island chain].

(a) Campbell stressed that the Biden Administration stands by the “One China Policy” and does not recognize Taiwan as an independent country — but he explained that the island should not be ignored by the international community or shut out of multilateral collaboration where it can make contributions. “We fully recognize and understand the sensitivities here,” he said.​
(b) The conversation also covered trade policy, where the U.S. is “quietly exploring” trade initiatives in Asia, and China’s bullying approach to Australia. In this respect, the RAAF and RAN are will placed to collaborate with their American and Japanese counter-parts at intelligence sharing given the high levels of interoperability of naval and air forces. The RAAF has executed part of its modernisation strategy to remain relevant in a manner that gives me high confidence of their increasing relevance provided their strategic community consider adding to RAAF’s fighter numbers by buying a 4th squadron of F-35As.​
(c) My concern continues to be RAN submarine and ship building plans that are being delayed due to various reasons. Given the presence of a performance driven culture, those who perform are on the inside track, those that don’t are wondering what comes next as Japan unfurls it’s military strategy with performing allies to cope with China’s rise.​

4. What matters, in the period from 2021 to 2031, for the JSDF is execution (including the JMSDF’s superb ship building plans that see new models rollout like clockwork); and in this respect the USAF, RAAF, and ROKAF, as allies with tertiary air forces, are executing their respective buy plans for new weapons that warms my heart — but the ship building plans of these 3 navies are a rocky path.

5. To conclude, it is important to keep in mind that the rivalry or competition against China is fiercest not in the military sphere but in technology, 5G, robotics, life sciences and even areas like AI.
 
Last edited:

swerve

Super Moderator
1. I suspect that PM Yoshihide Suga will not survive long in his post before domestic imperatives push forward a new LDP leader. ...
Something that the Japanese people I speak to say. He's seen as ineffectual. A common opinon is that he only has the job because Abe gave it to him, either as a reward for loyal support or so he could be manipulated from behind the scenes.

[Edit]
My wife despises him.
 
Last edited:

Musashi_kenshin

Active Member
Something that the Japanese people I speak to say. He's seen as ineffectual. A common opinon is that he only has the job because Abe gave it to him, either as a reward for loyal support or so he could be manipulated from behind the scenes.
It speaks volumes that the LDP have a highly popular politician in the public's eyes (Ishiba), but he's unlikely to become PM because he lacks factional support within the party. It's why Suga is still there, because the factions are still squabbling over who should replace him.

(I mean, I don't know, maybe have a primary involving public and party member votes? Oh sorry, can't do that, factions say no.)
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
Japan's Deputy Prime Minister has sounded this Hawkish warning.

"If a major incident happened [in Taiwan], it would not be strange at all if it touches on a situation threatening survival. If that is the case, Japan and the U.S. must defend Taiwan together."

Japan would not want China on its door step and this is apparently the first time this has been addressed publicly at a government level. I find myself wondering if there hasn't been some US pressure on Japan to make this sort of announcement. Certainly the US would prefer a regional power take up the gauntlet against China and Japan is the obvious choice. At the very least it would seem that Japan may be ready to allow the US to use Japan as a military base for any action it might want to take to prevent China invading Taiwan.

Japan made direct reference to the China's increased aggression against Taiwan in its current defence white paper.

 
Last edited:

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
China threatens to use nuclear weapons against Japan if they attempt any intervention over Taiwan. In addition there is a plan to break Japan under 4 states and have them under the control of Russia and China. In a reposted message by local CCP from a Chinese social media site, from a Chinese military commentator.



"When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares intervene by force, even if it only sends one soldier, one plane or one ship, we will not only return fire, but also start a full-scale war against Japan," the commentary says.

"First, we will use nuclear bombs. We will continue to use nuclear bombs until Japan offers its second unconditional surrender," it adds.

"We want to strike Japan's capacity to endure war. As soon as Japan recognizes that it cannot afford to pay the price of war, it will not dare send troops to the Taiwan Strait," the narrator continues.


Japans recent commentary seems to have hit a nerve in China. May reveal some of the logic behind building more nuclear launch sites. China would need to strike at multiple countries in any nuclear conflict.
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
The rhetoric coming out of the PRC reminds me of the rhetoric that enamated from Nazi Germany in the mid 1930s with the talk of avenging the wrongs of the Treaty of Versailles and talk of lebensraum.
With a bit of a 'step to the right' the Panda has revealed it's true self as a classical fascist Dragon, As you point out the rhetoric is very similar to the Fascists of last century and if you look through the list of what constituted 20th century fascism, the current version of PRC checks just about all of the boxes. Goodbye proletariat, hello proles.

This article looked at the PRC potential for getting around the first island chain - Xi Jinping is about to make the most important strategic decision of our era | ORF (orfonline.org) It posits the only means are the BRI, The southern route (Strait of Malacca) or The northern route (Strait of Taiwan). For strategic reason alone it believes the route through Taiwan would be the easiest and most likely to be achieved. Throw in Presidents Xi vanity, Chinese ultranationalism regarding 'reunification' and the instant dominance the PRC would achieve in semiconductor production; Taiwan becomes a very tempting prize.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Many Chinese believe that Trump accelerated American decline —Part 1

The rhetoric coming out of the PRC reminds me of the rhetoric that enamated from Nazi Germany in the mid 1930s with the talk of avenging the wrongs of the Treaty of Versailles and talk of lebensraum.
1. Viewing the CCP as a monolith is misleading, and impedes the understanding of domestic Chinese politics, and the dynamics of factional politics within it. If you choose to see China through this sort of lens, you will lose insight on how to actually deter the PLA by working to build understanding without prejudice — unfounded prejudice is what will cause American and Japanese efforts to resist the PLA’s growth to fail.

2. China’s system internally selected Xi Jinping, as General Secretary, to reform and he has a charter for reform, if it is not squandered. Thus far the reforms seems to be real and deep reaching within this dysfunctional system’s parameters; but he has concentrated power to a degree never before seen — it is not useful to think of Xi Jinping as having ended the CCP’s internal democracy that Deng Xiaoping had established.

3. The rise of a new power-seeking faction under the patronage of President Xi is one of the biggest developments in elite Chinese politics over the past three decades. What is his purpose? Is it only for control? I suspect that is not the only way to look at these changes. Countries in Asia have to navigate a difficult middle path from 2030 to 2049 because of China’s awareness of its looming weaknesses; and not because of its strength. China is a threat because it has a system but China’s weakness is also because of the limitations of the same system.

4. The Chinese bureaucracy involves two vertical hierarchies, the state and the party. These two vertical hierarchies are then replicated across the five levels of government: central, provincial, county, city, and township. A certain level of local knowledge is needed to help the PLA become self-aware of the harm it is doing to itself. Unfounded prejudice that I often see in other forums will create an unnecessary enemy, when there is scope to both cooperate and to push back.

5. Chinese politicians can be divided into 7 distinct groups based on their nature of connection with President Xi: princelings, Shaanxi, Tsinghua University, Hebei, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. Each of these 7 groups represent a particular stage in Xi’s political career. Therefore, all the members of the Xi Gang essentially formed a relationship with the leader as Xi rose up the ranks.
 
Last edited:

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Many Chinese believe that Trump accelerated American decline —Part 2

6. Many Chinese believe that Trump accelerated American decline. It is this judgement that is more consequential, encouraging Beijing to challenge Washington not only in Asia but globally. In the book: “The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order,” Chinese leaders have constantly assessed and reassessed American power. Since the end of the Cold War, each leader has publicly anchored Chinese grand strategy to concepts like “multipolarity” and “the international balance of forces” that are essentially polite euphemisms for the relative balance between Chinese and American power. When China’s perception of American strength shifts, its strategy generally changes.

7. The Chinese version of grand strategy delineated in the analysis by Rush Doshi has been patient, persistent, and relentless, combining all the elements of statecraft—diplomacy, information, military, and economic—the so-called DIME model of strategy. Beginning with the early opening of China to the west in 1979, the author breaks down the sequence of Chinese grand strategy into three basic phases: blunting, building, and expansion, and then shows how each element of the DIME model was conducted during that phase as well as the continuity of strategy across changes in top CCP leadership, with each succeeding General Secretary building on the efforts of his predecessor.

8. Additionally, some close allies of Xi such as Wang Qishan have also formed their own patron-client networks, and these are also included in the Xi Gang. In July 2021, Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan called on:

(a) party members to make more efforts at learning the Xi thought by heart, improve the political judgement, understanding and execution, and closely follow the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core in terms of thinking and actions; and​

(b) China and the U.S. to handle differences through dialogue and expand common interests. The US' biggest challenge is not China, but itself, Wang said during a high-level meeting to commemorate the 50th anniversary of former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger's secret visit to China.​

9. In the past decade, Chinese efforts to displace the US on the world economic stage has only accelerated, with the Belt and Road Initiative and the growing effort to displace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, creating both economic and diplomatic inroads throughout Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and even Latin America.
(a) The challenges faced by the world’s economy from the COVID crisis of 2020 has only increased Chinese economic efforts to take advantage of the situation to strive for dominance in the crucial high-tech industrial race of the 21st century: quantum computing, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and robotics.​
(b) In spite of its massive military power compared to its immediate neighbours, China faces structural problems. The demise of the US has been forecasted before, most prominently in the late 1970s in the wake of Vietnam and Watergate. However, the will and determination to solidly face the Chinese threat has not yet solidified, which is still emerging from a deep COVID slumber. Solid research and sharp analysis is sorely needed to truly understand the challenges faced with China’s rise.​

10. I have confidence that Japan will articulate its security concerns via performance at military modernisation— the JSDF will in the next 10 years demonstrate how deterrence is to be achieved while remaining cordial with an adversary. However, if we adopt the bi-polar Taiwanese approach — KMT (too much appeasement) vs DPP (too much confrontation without substance) — we will fail. The most concerning factor for Taiwan has been the development of:
(a) a more modern and lethal military force, particularly the PLA(N), which has moved from a force designed to keep both the JMSDF and the US Navy out of the Western Pacific and the approaches to China to a burgeoning global maritime force capable of projecting forward presence and sea power to defend a growing Chinese economic and diplomatic presence;​
(b) large amphibious ships, at-sea replenishment ships, multi-warfare capable surface ships, and the beginning of an aircraft carrier fleets for the PLA(N); and​
(c) Chinese determination to dominate not only the East and South China Seas, but to populate these contentious zones and waters with civilian ships to contest ownership.​
 
Last edited:

Musashi_kenshin

Active Member
China’s system internally selected Xi Jinping to reform and he has a charter for reform, if it is not squandered. Thus far the reforms seems to be real and deep reaching within this dysfunctional system’s parameters; but he has concentrated power to a degree never before seen — it is not useful to think of Xi Jinping as having ended the CCP’s internal democracy that Deng Xiaoping had established.
That sounds overly optimistic. Xi was selected in part because the different Party factions couldn't agree on who to choose, and Xi seemed like a sensible compromise. I don't think there was any belief he was the best person to choose to pursue "reform". Similarly I doubt the factions thought he was going to abolish term limits or that they wanted that. But by the time he did it he had too much power to be stopped.

The rise of a new power-seeking faction under the patronage of President Xi is one of the biggest developments in elite Chinese politics over theast three decades. What is his purpose? Is it only for control? I suspect that is not the only way to look at these changes.
It's not the only way to look at it, but so far it's the obvious way to interpret his actions. His "anti-corruption" drives conveniently tackle his enemies, and he's set up various "snitch lines" to report people not for general criminal activity but for political "crimes" like wrongthink. Meanwhile writing about the wealth of Xi's family or even speculating what his daughter looks like is a serious crime. You can't tackle corruption without transparency.

He's also continuing to dodge the really difficult stuff, like raising the retirement age quickly to deal with the demographic crisis, raising taxes to pay for better wages (because crap public sector pay is one cause of corruption) and rebalancing security spending for better education, healthcare, etc.

(b) China and the U.S. to handle differences through dialogue and expand common interests. The US' biggest challenge is not China, but itself, Wang said during a high-level meeting to commemorate the 50th anniversary of former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger's secret visit to China.
Didn't Biden try to do that through the direct talks some months ago, only for the Chinese delegation to start ranting during the opening remarks and then make petty comments about having instant noodles for lunch? I think the CCP should read Matthew 7:5

"first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother's eye"
 
Last edited by a moderator:

weaponwh

Member
China threatens to use nuclear weapons against Japan if they attempt any intervention over Taiwan. In addition there is a plan to break Japan under 4 states and have them under the control of Russia and China. In a reposted message by local CCP from a Chinese social media site, from a Chinese military commentator.



"When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares intervene by force, even if it only sends one soldier, one plane or one ship, we will not only return fire, but also start a full-scale war against Japan," the commentary says.

"First, we will use nuclear bombs. We will continue to use nuclear bombs until Japan offers its second unconditional surrender," it adds.

"We want to strike Japan's capacity to endure war. As soon as Japan recognizes that it cannot afford to pay the price of war, it will not dare send troops to the Taiwan Strait," the narrator continues.


Japans recent commentary seems to have hit a nerve in China. May reveal some of the logic behind building more nuclear launch sites. China would need to strike at multiple countries in any nuclear conflict.
Ok who is this official and where is the videos from? cause there is the official stance from china foreign affair, then there is china nationalistic fanboys. if its the latter then its just another right wing extremist that pretty much every country have some. consider china own nuclear policy is minimum deterrent and no first use policy, i dont see them use nuke as 1st strike weapon, consider they only have 300ish warhead. Now if its from official response from foreign affair, then thats serious. otherwise, i would take it as some nationalistic ranting from local guy.
 
Last edited:

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Ok who is this official and where is the videos from? cause there is the official stance from china foreign affair, then there is china nationalistic fanboys. if its the latter then its just another right wing extremist that pretty much every country have some. consider china own nuclear policy is minimum deterrent and no first use policy, i dont see them use nuke as 1st strike weapon, consider they only have 300ish warhead. Now if its from official response from foreign affair, then thats serious. otherwise, i would take it as some nationalistic ranting from local guy.
Are you trying to dissemble and / or pick a fight with a Moderator with a post and tone like that. You know as well as I do that the official stance by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the polite public face. You also know as well as I do that any published comments within the PRC are not made without CCP approval otherwise they don't get past the censors. Or if they do they are quickly detected, deleted, and the author receives a visit from the police to remind them of their patriotic duty.

Whilst there are nationalistic rants enamating from various sections of PRC society, don't discount them because the nationalistic fires have been stoked by the CCP. Just because the CCP / PRC have said that they will not be the ones who will use nukes first, given their recent history we can no longer accept that statement at face value. It doesn't matter if they have 300 nukes, it only takes one or two as battlefield tactical weapons to create a situation of advantage in punching a hole through enemy lines. BTW the knowledge of PRC nuke stocks are estimates only and in recent times they could well have built many new warheads without outside knowledge. They will have more than enough to destroy the continental USA a few times over.
 

weaponwh

Member
Are you trying to dissemble and / or pick a fight with a Moderator with a post and tone like that. You know as well as I do that the official stance by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the polite public face. You also know as well as I do that any published comments within the PRC are not made without CCP approval otherwise they don't get past the censors. Or if they do they are quickly detected, deleted, and the author receives a visit from the police to remind them of their patriotic duty.

Whilst there are nationalistic rants enamating from various sections of PRC society, don't discount them because the nationalistic fires have been stoked by the CCP. Just because the CCP / PRC have said that they will not be the ones who will use nukes first, given their recent history we can no longer accept that statement at face value. It doesn't matter if they have 300 nukes, it only takes one or two as battlefield tactical weapons to create a situation of advantage in punching a hole through enemy lines. BTW the knowledge of PRC nuke stocks are estimates only and in recent times they could well have built many new warheads without outside knowledge. They will have more than enough to destroy the continental USA a few times over.
actually i'm not try to pick a fight, but there are individual from china make ridiculously comment and got translate as official CCP words. there are alot nationalistic chinese in china, and ccp is not tracking/censor any what they consider "pro" ccp words, but these are still just individual words. the article indicate hes from Baoji , which is 4th tier city in china, akin to med size city in US. also Municipal Committee, thats like county/city council here in US. basically he is just an local civil worker from med size city. i remember there were another incident back in 90s/2000s, a retire chinese army general said something similar, except sub japan with LA. there are alot ranting from individual, and its important to separate whats individual ranting vs official response. There were official response from china after japan mention taiwan.

raising nationalism is an issue in china but every country have some nationalism, china probably have more ppl consider as nationalistic . as for PRC nuke, i guess i can only take DoD report words on it. I still dont think china will use nuke on Japan, thats just crazy, they are not NK. however china growing conventional and asymmetrical warfare is much more challenge compare to their nuclear stockpile.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Active Member
as for PRC nuke, i guess i can only take DoD report words on it. I still dont think china will use nuke on Japan, thats just crazy, they are not NK. however china growing conventional and asymmetrical warfare is much more challenge compare to their nuclear stockpile.
No one has said that China will start a nuclear war. The point is that given how much control Xi has taken of the Party, even local branches sharing videos about nuclear holocaust and destroying countries can't be done without tolerance from provincial and central leadership. The days of random retired generals sounding off without consequence because of intra-party democracy/lack of central control have gone. These days such statements are fed to people - thinking for yourself in Chinese politics can get you fired or worse.

This sort of posturing from the CCP looks bad, as it can be interpreted as any of the following:

1. Instability and factional-infighting to try to make Xi look like he lacks control;
2. Weakness and fear on the Party's behalf that it feels the need to lash out;
3. Irrationally and a mental breakdown of senior leaders that they think a nuclear first-strike is a viable policy.

Maybe the central Party thought it was ill advised but didn't want to do anything to avoid looking weak. However, even if that's the case, they still come off poorly from this episode.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
With massive stocks of plutonium and the technology to build nuclear weapons, Chinese rhetoric is providing huge incentive for a Japanese WMD program.
Why China insists on poking Japan with a stick is beyond me. Japan has theoretically got enough plutonium for around 5000 to 6000 warheads. With that much plutonium the Japanese could throw together several dirty bombs a few days. Give them 6 to 12 months and they could have nuclear weapons.

By way of comparison Japan has a stockpile of around 45 tons of plutonium compared to an estimate of 2 tons for China.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Many Chinese believe that Trump accelerated American decline —Part 3

11. China’s PLA and industry needs another 5 to 15 years to develop their beach storming AI controlled robot swarms — they certainly don’t have ROE concerns of the Americans — their PHD holders are proud of what they can achieve in their system. The PLA may not intend to get there by 2026 but it’s coming to a beach on the 1st island chain.

12. This is why dominance of the electro-mangnetic spectrum is key to any fight within the 1st and 2nd island chains. In 2019, it was reported that Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) seeks to develop an electronic warfare version of the P-1 maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft, to replace the EP-3 and OP-3 series in JMSDF service. Which is why we need to study the Japanese, Australian and American modernisation efforts (or lack thereof) in this area. Japan’s Signal Intelligence Capability could certainly be improved if they were willing to adopt the US Navy’s system called Ship Signals Exploitation System, which collects foreign radio communication and radar signals.

Why China insists on poking Japan with a stick is beyond me. Japan has theoretically got enough plutonium for around 5000 to 6000 warheads.
13. Because the CCP decided that they can at this moment of American weakness, just after Trump stepped down (before Biden can shore-up the alliances in the Indo-Pacific) — the message from them is being heard loud and clear by the peace lobby in Japan.

14. Don’t misunderstand the CCP’s propaganda message. It’s not intended for you but directed at the anti-nuclear lobby in Japan, or the local Japanese who oppose the US military presence in Okinawa, and the Taiwanese surrender factions who are aided by Chinese funds. The CCP understands that Taiwanese willingness and plans to defend themselves is as hollow as the Afghan National Army (if the CCP decide to push forward in the event of an armed conflict in the late 2030s).

15. After the latest corruption scandal erupted, President Tsai Ing-wen admitted that the DPP once again faces a legitimacy crisis — its former president Chen Shui-bian was arrested for corruption in 2008 — and that it is uncertain her party will retain control of Taiwan in 2024. Tsai further warned that those who aim for personal enrichment should not join the DPP. Su Jia-chyuan, Tsai’s confidant and widely believed to be a top candidate for chief officer of the executive branch if the DPP were to stay in power in 2024, resigned from his post as Secretary General so that prosecutors can conduct unhindered investigations.

16. The blow to the NPP is even more devastating. Hsu Yung-ming has voluntarily resigned from the presidency of the party, but apparently that was insufficient to convince party members not to rescind their memberships. NPP’s only two legislators in Taipei’s municipal parliament quit the party, while the second-highest party member said he would not seek to become the NPP president. In short, the third-largest political party in Taiwan is on the verge of collapsing. The domestic politics of Taiwan is insane — I don’t see the possibility of real bipartisan support for getting serious about defence in Taiwan.

17. Due to the endless domestic political in fighting, presently, many of Taiwan’s conscripts see military service as a waste of time. Until and unless the Taiwanese conscript trust the fighting ability of their sister unit to hold their flank, you will see the progressive collapse of defenders if they face a determined opponent.

18. Americans who support Taiwanese military modernisation efforts need to be honest and realistic about the party they are selling weapons to. The first question they need to ask, is:
Q1: Can the Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) really use the weapons systems approved for sale?​

19. The prior Trump administration pushed out 6 FMS packages for Taiwan between Oct. and Dec. of 2020, including a US$2.37 billion deal for Harpoon coastal defense systems. Overall, the Trump administration cleared 20 FMS cases for Taiwan, with an estimated cumulative price tag of almost US$18.3 billion.
(a) When the Taiwanese watch Singaporean soldiers on the SAF’s unilateral training in Taiwan, they get demoralised (because they know the difference). In contrast to the 4 months in Taiwan, Singaporean conscripts serve for 22 months. I know their training standards, where instead of being given blanks to fire during an exercise, they blow whistles. Taiwan’s MND needs to be reformed before they can utilise the package of weapons being sold by Biden. The U.S. State Department cleared Taiwan to purchase an estimated US$750 million in howitzers and associated equipment — the first major Foreign Military Sales case to Taiwan approved by the Biden administration. Without real reform, these same weapons can be used against US allies after their surrender.​
(b) When Singaporean troops train, it is a combined arms level for a battalion, a brigade or a division (as demonstrated at Exercise Wallaby and at Exercise Forging Sabre) with the supporting C4ISR systems. Each Singaporean division is supported by an artillery brigade and that artillery brigade is defended by GBAD systems in concentric layers. The Taiwanese conscripts are minimally trained and they are not serious in spending money on training for combined arms warfare.​

20. The conventional American logic is let’s arm the Taiwanese to the teeth but have they looked at the rot in the MND in Taiwan?
 
Last edited:

Musashi_kenshin

Active Member
14. Don’t misunderstand the CCP’s propaganda message. It’s not intended for you but directed at the anti-nuclear lobby in Japan, or the local Japanese who oppose the US military presence in Okinawa
Neither of those factions control Japanese politics, and Beijing has turned Japanese public sentiment against them [China]. If anything the anti-nuclear/peace lobby was more powerful 20 years ago when China played down the threat it posed. China has made it politically possible for Japan to purchase stand off weapons like JASSM. If the purchase didn't go ahead it would probably be because of cost rather than public concerns about principle.

The fact that it appears LRASM has been ditched to ensure JASSM goes ahead is rather telling about the current political climate.

After the latest corruption scandal erupted, President Tsai Ing-wen admitted that the DPP once again faces a legitimacy crisis
FYI the link is broken.

and that it is uncertain her party will retain control of Taiwan in 2024. Tsai further warned that those who aim for personal enrichment should not join the DPP. Su Jia-chyuan, Tsai’s confidant and widely believed to be a top candidate for chief officer of the executive branch if the DPP were to stay in power in 2024, resigned from his post as Secretary General so that prosecutors can conduct unhindered investigations.
We're still 2.5 years out from the next general election, so sure nothing is certain. But if the DPP choose someone popular, and they've gotten a lot better about selecting people via primaries than doing deals between factions, I'd still expect them to win largely on the basis that the KMT positioned itself on the wrong side of the vaccine strategy. The KMT banked on Taiwan struggling to get vaccines without China but were blindsided by donations from Japan and the US. The daily infection/hospitalisation rate is also super-low again, whilst other countries are talking about tens of thousands of infections a day being the "new normal". If the government can keep things under control as the vaccinations keep being given out, I think the DPP will get credit for that.

Due to the endless domestic political in fighting, presently, many of Taiwan’s conscripts see military service as a waste of time.
I know you talk about the conscripts a lot. What about the professional (volunteer) personnel that are now the front line forces?
 
Last edited:

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Many Chinese believe that Trump accelerated American decline —Part 4

What about the professional (volunteer) personnel that are now the front line forces?
21. You are just cherry picking on any aspect of my point that does not fit your world view. I keep telling you, Taiwan’s MoD procurement plans is deeply dysfunctional at any level. Given the current state of U.S.-China relations, increasing bipartisan support for Taiwan in Washington. As I explained before, DPP raises tensions with China for political gain; and to gain support for their intermittent weapons build programs for armoured vehicles, jets, ships and submarines.
(a) In 2021, the Tsai Ing-wen administration released its second Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). Their 2021 QDR contains some fluff but at its core does nothing to fix their broken, but mainly professional army. They don’t have modern IFVs and don’t intend to acquire them, because it’s cheaper to only buy 8x8s. Every Tsai Ing-wen supporter and constructivist had a plan until they get punched in the face by CCP’s realpolitik.​
(b) Taiwan’s 2021 QDR emphasizes Taiwan’s procurement and development of long-range strike capabilities without regard to increasing the immediate lethality of their existing brigades. The MND explicitly admits that “conventional warfare of attrition or arms race is not viable options for [Taiwan].” Taiwan is also acquiring 400 Harpoon Block II missiles (as part of it’s coastal defense system) and to extend Taiwan’s defenses deeper into Chinese territory. This all sounds good until you realise that Taiwan makes its own longer ranged anti-ship missiles at a lower cost point. They could just increase the local anti-ship missile production rate to sustain Taiwanese industry instead of wasting money on American missiles.​
(c) There are also no believable plans to increase the level of training for their armed forces, at the brigade level. Have they constructed urban warfare ranges, to enable a Taiwanese brigade to train together? Taiwan’s MND also talks about building submarines, naval vessels and buying 40 M-109A6 Paladin 155mm self propelled howitzers (SPH) and 100 M1 MBTs— but there is nothing concrete on plucking low hanging fruit to hire a few more troops to make up for the recruiting shortfall. Taiwan basically bought 2 battalions of MBTs and 2 battalions of SPHs, plus a few spares. This is a good first step but is grossly inadequate, as they lack modern IFVs.​

22. If produced in sufficient numbers, the new variant of the 8x8 Clouded Leopard armored vehicle with a 105mm gun will enable them to retire their dates CM-12 (a modified M48A3 light tank). It is also great to see an increased emphasis on cyber, improving their C2 and improving the lethality of their 8x8 battalions by developing the 81/120 mm Mobile Mortar System (MMS) on the 8x8 M2 Mortar Carrier. MMS is a self-contained, electro-mechanical turntable mount that can be armed with an 81 mm or 120 mm smoothbore mortar. However, Taiwan is still buying less than the basics to improve the fighting ability and cohesion of Taiwanese army divisions — instead they rely on the magic word ‘asymmetric’, as a cure all. If the US DoD were to review Taiwanese war plans, they would note the lack of Taiwanese MND desire to really change for the better.
(a) This is typical of the Taiwanese desire to fake it, rather than fix it under the Tsai Ing-wen administration. Based on my observation of their implied CONOPS and announced procurement plans, they have an island defence plan that does not seem to work, yet.​
(b) The proposed FY 2021 Taiwanese military budget is US$12.4 billion, an increase of about 4.4%, which compares poorly with a PRC military budget estimated by SIPRI at US$261 billion for 2019. US Marine Maj. Gen. Dave Furness, deputy assistant commandant for plans, policy and operations, speaking late Monday afternoon at Sea Air Space on Indo-Pacific security issues said:​
China is in the midst of “a large-scale exercise, a theater level exercise of huge scope and scale. It’s something that really US forces haven’t done, you know, since Reforger.”​
(c) Nothing works when the leadership under Tsai Ing-wen is so incompetent in defence planning. In future, I hope the Taiwanese will take time to really refine their war plans, to make them credible and workable against the PLA’s amphibious forces.​
 
Last edited:
Top