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iran nuclear deal

Discussion in 'Geostrategic Issues' started by peterAustralia, Apr 3, 2015.

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  1. Feanor

    Feanor Super Moderator Staff Member

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    It's a complicated subject. Iran is under fewer sanctions that it had been in the past. For example Iran is in preliminary talks to buy Russian SSJ-100 airliners. The airliners have US components (22% allegedly) which blocks current sales, but a "Russified" variant (the SSJ-95R or SSJ-75 depending on who you ask) is being developed for customers like Iran, where US components will make up less than 10% and won't require US approval for export sales. However the same airliner has plenty of European components, including Russo-French engines, which are a lot harder to replace. If the EU re-imposes full scale sanctions it will certainly limit Iran. Additionally Iran has a deal with Russia to get their nuclear fuel, use it, and then return the waste to Russia. Will Russia continue to sell Iran nuclear materials if they know that Iran could use it for weapons? Right now Iran is complying with the deal and not building weapons. The US looks aggressive, and Iran almost looks like the victim (their other "activities" notwithstanding). But if Iran returns to trying to produce nuclear weapons, the game changes. And given Russo-Israeli relations, and Russia's complex game across the Middle East, I'm not sure even they would stand by Iran if Iran went nuclear. I mean look at Russian and North Korea. They still have some bilateral trade, but the DPRK gets basically no real political support from Russia. And if even Russia won't support them Iran will end up in international isolation all over again.

    I think the smartest thing Iran can do is stick to the terms of the deal, while complaining loudly about US unfairness, and meanwhile work with the EU, Russia, China, and anyone else who is willing, to undermine and circumvent US efforts in this department.
     
  2. yavar

    yavar Member

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  3. yavar

    yavar Member

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  4. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    A couple of articles about tensions between the US and its allies over the US unilaterally ratcheting up tensions with Iran and US claims of intelligence reposrts to support its reasons.

    Tensions over Iran show cracks in a time-tested alliance

    Allies hunker down in Iraq, drop out over US tensions with Iran

    I have to be honest, I don't think the US re-imposition of sanctions on Iran are legal and that by withdrawing from the 2015 agreement, re-imposing sanctions and being bellicose towards Iran, actually places Iran in the moral high ground. If for any reason the US orchestrates an attack against Iran, it would gift Iran causus belli for a just war of defence against a foreign aggressor and leave itself open to charges of waging a war of aggression. I could be wrong here, but I think that the sanctions recently re-imposed by the US could be an seen as an act of war. If the roles were reversed and the US had such or similar sanctions placed against it, there would be war. My view that this is a monumental blunder by the White House and the winners out of this will not be the US or Iran, but Russia and China, who are the main opposition.
     
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  5. weaponwh

    weaponwh Member

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    well with trump, bolton and other right in the WH. dont think they care about moral high ground now. Trump want to dismantle anything from obama era. i wonder what China/turkey/india would do if US insist them to stop buying oil from Iran, they may have to give in. That would put even more pressure on iran.
     
  6. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    GW3 is not a good outcome for anybody and especially for the US which has pi$$ed away trillions along with thousands of its soldiers. If Donald Trump thinks another war will enhance his position with his "base" he is in for a rude shock. I think he knows this. This is all Bolton and hopefully the Donald's survival instincts kick in before the stuff hits the fan.
     
  7. kiwipatriot69

    kiwipatriot69 Member

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    Yes, and now reports Iran is enriching its nuclear reactors This could get really ugly, not just with Usa/ Iran, but neighbouring countries too, and whatever allied forces in the area. I'm suspicious about those damaged ships, could they be caused by carelessness from the Captains themselves, in a much congested shipping area? Nz and pacific have in recent years have had groundings by similar sized vessels, for that reason.