iran nuclear deal
- Thread starter peterAustralia
- Start date
In 2015, when then-President Barack Obama agreed to lift the sanctions on Iran in return for curbs on the country’s nuclear ambitions, US companies were elated by the opening up of a new market with a population of over 80 million. Major firms were quick enough to grab a piece of this pie, signing deals and making investments. Hardly would they have imagined that the sanctions will be replaced within a span of just three years.
Now Boeing, as well as its European counterpart Airbus, will together lose deals worth about $40 billion as both the companies had obtained licenses to sell passenger aircraft to Iran. These licenses are now expected to get revoked, according to US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. The deal that Boeing signed under the nuclear accord in December 2016 is valued at around $17 billion.
Source: Boeing, General Electric to be worst hit by the nuke-deal exit | AlphaStreet
Now Boeing, as well as its European counterpart Airbus, will together lose deals worth about $40 billion as both the companies had obtained licenses to sell passenger aircraft to Iran. These licenses are now expected to get revoked, according to US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. The deal that Boeing signed under the nuclear accord in December 2016 is valued at around $17 billion.
Source: Boeing, General Electric to be worst hit by the nuke-deal exit | AlphaStreet
supercomrade
Member
Ummm...there's a lot currently happening...
There is tons of reports of Israel and Iran clashing hard in Syria around Damascus.
I don't want to post links because there is a new update coming in every 2 min. I will wait guys like Feanor post their input once the dust settles. I don't have enough knowledge in geo politics(but learning!) to give any insight to wtf is happening.
EDIT: Worth nothing, on previous page I posted that Benjamin Netanyahu was on his way to Moscow to meet with Putin. All this began after their meeting.
There is tons of reports of Israel and Iran clashing hard in Syria around Damascus.
I don't want to post links because there is a new update coming in every 2 min. I will wait guys like Feanor post their input once the dust settles. I don't have enough knowledge in geo politics(but learning!) to give any insight to wtf is happening.
EDIT: Worth nothing, on previous page I posted that Benjamin Netanyahu was on his way to Moscow to meet with Putin. All this began after their meeting.
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Ocean1Curse
Member
US forign policy only makes sense if you consider Iraq, Syria and Iran all oppose the State of Isreal. And with out the USN it is impossible to balance trade. The west enjoys competitive advantages thanks to not having to secure there own SLOC with there own ships. With out the USN trade becomes cost prohibitive. And that's just the way it is. No one person or nation can change that. So we must lobby world leaders to take a moment to understand this.
If Adolf Hitler had of pondered this would he have embarked on a reckless course to capture Russia and Western Europ all in one go?
Trump may find it annoying, every one reminding him of the way things work. But I would advise him of the wisdom none the less. But he must be convinced of his own experience in the Oval Office.
If Adolf Hitler had of pondered this would he have embarked on a reckless course to capture Russia and Western Europ all in one go?
Trump may find it annoying, every one reminding him of the way things work. But I would advise him of the wisdom none the less. But he must be convinced of his own experience in the Oval Office.
It hasn't been proven, merely claimed, and by Israel. Not the most trustworthy source given the circumstances. And remember, the deal wasn't a US-Iran one but a much larger international one. The US pulling out unilaterally sends messages not only to Iran but to many other countries. Consider the full context. And consider how bad for US influence internationally it would be if Russia+China+EU managed to salvage the deal. It would show that the US role has diminished further then it had in a long time, and that major international situations can be resolved without any US involvement, indeed despite highly counter-productive US involvement.
Not only that but Russia is likely to fill the void vis-a-vis airliners. This move is practically a gift to other players who can step in.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
This should be a wake-up call for Airbus and other EU manufacturers to eliminate US sourced parts that require US export licenses. As Feanor stated, "a gift to other players".
Interesting comments. I am waiting for the discussion of the Saudi and Gulf States dimension in all of this.
Ocean1Curse
Member
The west is presented with two Arab problems. Except for Morocco and Tunisia, Arab states do not have a history of counting votes. The Muslim world are tribal, not nations, with monarchs and dictators on top who can not carry the majority. And this voter demographic presents the second problem. It forces radicalisation of Muslim states outside the gulf states. So we can not change regimes in the Middle East with out tribal leaders emerging and constant warring.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are two different categories of problems. Iran is tribal with a Mullah on top. Saudi Arabia is Feudal with a monarch on top, and massive oil wealth used to keep his court happy. Iran is a Shia majority ruling over a Sunni minority. And Shai confronts the Sunni Arab states with the encouragement of Iran too accumulate a bigger share of power, which has repercussions on the Sunni/Wahhabi Saudi Arabia who's got oil wells to the east. So Arab States will intervene in a massive way and put it down. But they are two different types of problems and I would go along with what has been done in Saudi Arabia, and Syria, who's tribal with a president on top.
In fact I think more can be done in Syria and has to be done to resolve the problems. Assad has killed his own people. That's branded him a war criminal so he can't leave or he'll end up in The Hague. So he has to fight to the bitter end. In the end Assad may do a plea bargain but who will take him?
I believe more can be done to find Assad Alternate accommodations, so that the Middle East can create a history of counting votes.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are two different categories of problems. Iran is tribal with a Mullah on top. Saudi Arabia is Feudal with a monarch on top, and massive oil wealth used to keep his court happy. Iran is a Shia majority ruling over a Sunni minority. And Shai confronts the Sunni Arab states with the encouragement of Iran too accumulate a bigger share of power, which has repercussions on the Sunni/Wahhabi Saudi Arabia who's got oil wells to the east. So Arab States will intervene in a massive way and put it down. But they are two different types of problems and I would go along with what has been done in Saudi Arabia, and Syria, who's tribal with a president on top.
In fact I think more can be done in Syria and has to be done to resolve the problems. Assad has killed his own people. That's branded him a war criminal so he can't leave or he'll end up in The Hague. So he has to fight to the bitter end. In the end Assad may do a plea bargain but who will take him?
I believe more can be done to find Assad Alternate accommodations, so that the Middle East can create a history of counting votes.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Didn't work with Saddam and it won't with Assad either. Assad would never feel safe outside his own country, even if some country was stupid enough to take him.
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Ocean1Curse
Member
In the west a typical middle class home has a waist high fence. In the middle east a typical dwelling has 3 metre high walls. This is the level of detail ME people go to, to protect themselves. Screw it up this key piece of infrastructure and the markets will punish those who sit on top.
Ocean1Curse
Member
Look, I don't know. But you can see that ME people have the ability to make serious social decisions. You only have to look at opposition parties in Iraq as an example to see that the people there have real ideas about the future and not necessarily Islamist extremists. But to see how you can channel these ideas and to protect them and the people with out being picked up by internal police I don't know. I don't know how you do that.
I think the fact that Iraq still exists helps to frame solutions in away that may not be good ideas but it helps us frame them. But the existence of the Iraqi state helps form social and political change in the region. And after the worst defeat in modern military history when ISIS took Mosel just 5 years ago this was unimaginable.
I think the fact that Iraq still exists helps to frame solutions in away that may not be good ideas but it helps us frame them. But the existence of the Iraqi state helps form social and political change in the region. And after the worst defeat in modern military history when ISIS took Mosel just 5 years ago this was unimaginable.
What about the problems the region as a whole faces from the West? The West has been meddling in the region for decades; imposing its will on the people and imposing and supporting leaders that were never elected. Almost all the countries in the region are artificial creations of the West; drawn up arbitrarily by Britain and France for their own interests without even consulting the locals.
Sounds great on paper but will the West allow this to happen? Or will the West try to impose its form of democracy on the region? What happens if locals select an Islamist government which is not to the West's liking?
Iraq is different [the price paid was going through a terrible civil war that resulted from the U.S. invasion] and so is Lebanon but in every other Arab country people still cant elect their leaders. The West talks about democracy and human rights but is quiet when certain countries who are ''allies'' don't behave as its suits Western interests to have the same leaders in power. Imagine if elections in Saudi took place and voters demanded the withdrawal of all Western troops and military facilities from Saudi soil. What would happen if Saudi's new rulers demand that Uncle Sam be a fair and honest broker in the Palestinian/Israeli issue and insists that Israel starts denuclearising?
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Ocean1Curse
Member
Yeah hi STURM. Arab states are not content to live with the Israli State. Israel has submarines capable of carrying nuclear tipped missiles. The purpose of that is well known. The purpose is to strengthen Israel's second strike capacity and those who play strategic analysis games knows that's a deterrent to undermine any Iranian attack. These actions and threats have two immediate effects which are well understood. The first effect is to harm Iranian democratic reformers and to undermine the Iranian Nuclear Deal from 2015 onwards (in my estimation). Further more the Iranian Deal had to contain a $100 billion bribe so they could come up with alternatives to cheap nuclear energy. But this part of the story is snapped off and thrown away because it takes way to long to explain on commercial media who only want to broadcast the story about the crazy mullahs want a bomb. And now we have a course of US and Israeli rejectionism.
This sort of theatre of trauma would be a problem under a Stalinous regime but it isn't. The US is the freest country in the world. Even I as an associate to the United States have enormous privilege and freedom. So there are things we can do that's very much in the mainstream to counter all of these doctrines. Infact the record of the US Democrat Party in the Middle East is far worse than Bush2 administration. But it's not beyond our power to influence what our representatives do. It's all kind of absurd. The Middle East has real, deep, dark problems. Solving difficult problems should give us tremendous motivation. We in the west have all of humanities discoveries. We have every opportunity to cover ourselves in glory and solve these really difficult questions.
If we don't use humanities discoveries to solve these really difficult problems we will lose them.
This sort of theatre of trauma would be a problem under a Stalinous regime but it isn't. The US is the freest country in the world. Even I as an associate to the United States have enormous privilege and freedom. So there are things we can do that's very much in the mainstream to counter all of these doctrines. Infact the record of the US Democrat Party in the Middle East is far worse than Bush2 administration. But it's not beyond our power to influence what our representatives do. It's all kind of absurd. The Middle East has real, deep, dark problems. Solving difficult problems should give us tremendous motivation. We in the west have all of humanities discoveries. We have every opportunity to cover ourselves in glory and solve these really difficult questions.
If we don't use humanities discoveries to solve these really difficult problems we will lose them.
That's not entirely true. Traditionally, despite all the talk about Arab unity, certain Arab states are contend with having a strong Israel as it other Arab states that certain Arab states distrust. As was the case during Black September; any threat existential threat to Jordan by another Arab state would lead to Israeli involvement. Similarly, any threat against Egypt from another state would lead to Israeli involvement for the simple reason that it would be in Israel's interests to get involved. In short, the priority for most Arab states is regime survival; rather than confronting Israel.
Iran - despite any rhetoric from certain groups or individuals - does not pose a existential to Israel. If Iran ever got nukes; they would be used a guarantee against regime change; not for strikes on Haifa or Tel Aviv. The reason Israel is so determined to maintain its nuke monopoly is not because of fears they would be used against Israel but because a nuke armed Iran would totally change the strategic equation and would limit Israel's options when striking Iran; either directly or indirectly.
Indeed it does but part of the reason why the region is such in a mess is because of Western meddling. The Arab should be allowed or even forced to settle their own issues. The problem is not only does the West continue to meddle but the West also wants certain Arab states to continue to be dependent on the West. If the Arabs or rather the citizens of various countries had freedom to make their own choices and choose their own leaders; the results might not be to the liking of the West.
'How Donald Trump has shown himself to be the American version of Gaddafi'
''Of course, we know what Trump’s breaking of the Iranian nuclear deal means – quite apart from his lies and fraudulent arguments about the original agreement: the United States is now a part of Israel’s foreign policy. The Arabs used to say that Israel was an American state. Now the US has become part of the Israel state. That infamous speech contained seven references to “terror” in relation to Iran – “state sponsor of terror”, “supports terrorist proxies”, “reign…of terror”, “a regime of great terror”, “funds…terrorism”, “support for terrorism”, “the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism” – and so on and so forth. This is almost as good as Benjamin Netanyahu’s speeches at the UN.''
''And we are supposed to believe, like children, that Shiite Iran is supporting Sunni Muslim al-Qaeda – when it’s been fighting al-Qaeda in Iraq and Syria. We are supposed to believe that Iran’s long-outdated “intelligence documents” provide “definitive proof” that Iran’s promise of not pursuing nuclear weapons is a lie. But what is America worth now – in the Middle East or anywhere else (North Korea comes to mind) – when it can so blatantly tear up an international treaty agreed by the US government itself. That used to be what some European leaders – one in particular – did in the first part of the 20th century.''
If Europe wants to remain relevant on the world stage, it must resist the US on the Iran nuclear deal
''A problem for the US is that Trump has made the Iranian nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama the issue on which he will test the limits of US power which he had pledged to expand. But the agreement is internationally popular and is seen to be working effectively in denying Iran the ability to develop a nuclear device. The US is therefore becoming self-isolated, with full support only from Israel and Saudi Arabia, in the first weeks of a crisis that could go on for years.''
''Already Trump’s determination to sink the deal forever has involved marginalising and humiliating France, Germany and UK. They had pleaded for it to be preserved but made more palatable to the US by separate agreements on ballistic missiles and other issues. Trump seems to have enjoyed the procession of European leaders from Emmanuel Macron to Boris Johnson asking for compromise, only to go away empty-handed.''
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Ocean1Curse
Member
The Middle East is in the worst shape it's been in for a long time. Egypt is in its darkest period ever.
Saudis are carrying out devastating bombings of Yemen that even quells the US thirst for war, and they find it difficult to support the Saudis.
ISIS is an outgrowth of the war on Iraq which is understood by intelligence analysts and the rest. The US didn't create ISIS they created the conditions for it.
The Assad regime is awful and the people opposing Assad is equally awful.
It's just a very ugly situation.
A typical example of the reaction to the US pulling out of there end of the Iranian deal, the day after, from FOX, The New York Times and so on. And the main thing that is constantly said is "we got to be carful about Iran. Iran is destabilising the region, it's the most aggressive and supports terror," and all that. And they even give examples of Iran giving support to Iraq that kill American soldiers. And this is called destabilising.
In other words when we invade Iraq, destroy it and create the worst sectarian violence in Middle East history, that's called stabilising, by commercial media.
If some one resists it, that's called destabilising. That's taken for granted and that's our problem, here, and in commercial media circles.
As long as this culture is so retarded that it can even contemplate these things, the world is in big trouble.
No it didn't. Unless you really think Barack Obama-who on his own call, walked away from strikes against the Assad regime in 2013 after they used chemical weaponry [and one of the major reasons for walking away was to preserve the Peace Deal-was suddenly going to decide to roll 'em cowboy and order strikes.
The whole "Iran deal or war" talk was propagated by the Obama admin as a justification for a deal, and was hollow exactly because there was no way-NONE-that the O admin would ever take that action.
As opposed to the current situation, where more and more of the Mideast is ablaze?
Why is Iran "faced with...Israel"? It's not like they share common borders or anything. Iran is free to have good relations with Israel if it wants them (it did under the Shah). I mean, it's not like Israel has pledged itself to the destruction of Iran (the reverse of course, not being true).
And the Iranians have a history of aggressive expansion in pursuit of empires going back thousands of years (something that may cause the Gulf Arabs to want arm themselves). Funny how that works?
It's dishonest to focus on Iran's perception of the threat environment without also noting that their adversaries-Israel and the Gulf Arabs-have very good reasons themselves to put Iran firmly in the threat environment-perceptions that have been reinforced by Iran's actions over the last 40 years or so.
Now is Iran re-acting to their perceived adversaries, are the adversaries re-acting to Iran? I'll freely admit it's a vicious cycle-but it's not like Iran's really doing things to de-escalate this, either.
Spoiler Alert: they've believed this since the 1950s (or older, if you draw in the old anti-missionary propaganda). That won't change this. The Norks were always going to ignore any deal signed; this is actually a foundational point of their ideology (their ability to outwit and outsmart any deals with the international community). See B. R. Myers' "The Cleanest Race" for more on this.
I would worry more about what effect this has on the Iranian opposition if I thought they had any power. But since 2009, it's clear they don't. They've never managed to mount any policy changes. The hardliners are in control,
So the US should be okay with a rising power who pushed virulent anti-Americanism, has been attacking American forces for almost 40 years, one that expressly states of goal of destruction of a US ally and the disruption of
Likewise, lots of framing this and North Korean discussion frames it as "Trump [because it's always about Trump] is stopping their fully (re-)integrating into the international system" which is odd in that both very clearly state that they really don't want to join the international system (at least in Iran's case not without severely shaking it up first; North Korea's much more of a hard nope on that).
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Everything is back to economy. If the European, Russian and China still want to stick with Iran nuclear deal..Iran will stick with it. With Iran still have enough economics incentive, they will keep the nuclear deal to keep the regime funding continues thrived.
Nothing Trump, Saudi's and Israel can do, unless they want to have all out war with Iran. Trump despite the talk of US sanctions to Europe, Russian, and Chinese companies that deal with Iran..will face all out trade war with China and EU. Something that unless Trump has lost all 'business' sanity, will not do. Trump is businessman afterall, and trade war with both EU (world second largest economy) and China (world third largest), is not going to bode well with market expectation on US recovery.
Is all back to business. Trump's projects with Indonesian conglomerate MNC in Indonesia now has been tied economically with Chinese fund. Showing despite all talk on tough economic confrontation with China, is all back to what business deal can come from this.
All this talk on Iran confrontation will only increase the price of oil that will not only benefited the Gulf Royals..but also Iran coffer and off course Putin's and Republican big supporters 'the giant oil companies'..
Nothing Trump, Saudi's and Israel can do, unless they want to have all out war with Iran. Trump despite the talk of US sanctions to Europe, Russian, and Chinese companies that deal with Iran..will face all out trade war with China and EU. Something that unless Trump has lost all 'business' sanity, will not do. Trump is businessman afterall, and trade war with both EU (world second largest economy) and China (world third largest), is not going to bode well with market expectation on US recovery.
Is all back to business. Trump's projects with Indonesian conglomerate MNC in Indonesia now has been tied economically with Chinese fund. Showing despite all talk on tough economic confrontation with China, is all back to what business deal can come from this.
All this talk on Iran confrontation will only increase the price of oil that will not only benefited the Gulf Royals..but also Iran coffer and off course Putin's and Republican big supporters 'the giant oil companies'..
nelsa
New Member
Seems EU will do same thing like they did in Cuba case ,everything says they will make regulation which will forbid their companies tu follow US sanctions....and thing is...Iran was in worst situation..they were conpletly isolated for decades..fight war against Iraq which was only country that was backed by both super powers..Iraq was backed by SSSR,US,EU and at the end Iraq was one who beg for truce...Iranians were literary forced to accept truce...And thing is..under these havy sanctions Iran is became 18 world economy...produce more cars than Russia or most EU states...if you look their science and technology level it is unbelievable they succeed this in such situation..8 year war...sanctions for 30+ years...and truth is...US just succeed what Ayatollah couldn't ...they united country...Iranian people is most loyal in most important time...I mean when Iraq attack them..they were short of pilots...they had to release pilots from jail they arrested because they were pro-sah...everone tought they will just fly away..but most of these pilots became heroes...give their life for country..and best pilots who keep world records in many fields are in fact these guys
2007yellow430
Active Member
You forgot to mention the fact that they (Israel) stole their original nuclear material.
Art
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
A rather worrisome article about possible political diversion by Trump. Even as little as 6 months ago I would not have considered this possible but his control of the news cycle has been his best defence. The recent cancellation of N. Korean meetings hardly raised an eyebrow. However it may actually have reached the point where nothing short of military action against Iran can divert a negative outcome from the Mueller investigation. In order to prevent this, the Republican Party leaders are really going to have to step up.
What If the Mueller Investigation Pushed Trump to Attack Iran?
What If the Mueller Investigation Pushed Trump to Attack Iran?