I don't have the crystal ball so I can't make any prediction, but I don't agree with your opinion at all.
1) MGCS is being constantly derailed by Rheinmetall, except that it is not.
The new MGCS is one the program, as I reported here too, included in the 2023 EDF.
Your claim is probably based on the fact that you think RHM wants to sell its KF51 tank, but I guess you missed the fact that RHM was forced to recognize that KMW ( now KNDS ) is actually the intellectual owner of the Leopard 2 design, and guess what... the KF51 hull is exactly the Leo2 hull.
DUSSELDORF, Germany --- The proceedings of Krauss-Maffei Wegmann GmbH & Co. KG (KMW) against Rheinmetall AG and Mr Papperger before the Munich I Regional...
www.defense-aerospace.com
So I dont see why RHM should derail the MGCS.
They will likely be the main gun manufacturer and their core products are IFVs and AA systems, not MBTs.
So there is not a single reason why RHM would want to have the MGCS derailed.
2) You are talking of "larger franco-german political-industrial conflict".
Here I actually have to guess you have no idea what you are talking about.
These 2 nations just merged their 2 biggest state-owned land systems companies and are working rally tight to strenghten, integrate and federalize their defense industry and militaries.
The other big program, the FCAS/SCAF, after years of uncertainty got a big push forward from the invasion of Ukraine and work started only a couple of months ago, having a new office also opened in Spain.
Indra’s new headquarters in Alcobendas, Spain, for the Next-Generation Weapon System/Future European Combat Air System (NGWS/FCAS) recently hosted the first meeting of the National Joint Office of the program, chaired by the Secretary of State for Defence, Amparo Valcarce.
asiapacificdefencereporter.com
You can also add that both Italy and Sweden officialy announced their will to participate in the MGCS and their full support for the program, not one but multiple times.
www.difesa.it
The only "conflict" currently undergoing in the EU is the one between the Eurozone and Hungary/Poland, who are being heavily criticized for their recent political moves ( Poland is also under infraction procedure by the EU court of justice )
Highlights, press releases and speeches
ec.europa.eu
My idea and the idea of every single european MPs, is that EU reliance on external nations must end.
Gradually, but it must end.