Indonesian Aero News
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
The Economics Coordinator Minister as Indonesia lead negotiator already told his US counterpart the deal involve US Oil and Gas, Agricilture products and Boeing Airliners, for preferential Tariff in Indonesian exports of Electrical Appliances and Textil-FootWear products.
However he clearly says that no military products in negotiation. Hopefully this means end of F-15EX and let the budget for Boeing Military switch to Dasault. Again this is for me jusr matter of streamlining TNI-AU logistics, supports and operational costs.
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There're talk that if this 24 more Rafale deal come through then instead 3 sq of 14 fighters each, it will be 4 sq of 3x16 and 1x18. The 18 ones is for conversion units with more dual seats version as conversion trainers.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
RI Gandeng Prancis Kembangkan Bengkel Pesawat
SECAMIC dan PT Republik Aero Dirgantara (RAD) menandatangani Nota Kesepahaman (MoU) pengembangan layanan Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO).
finance.detik.com
Republikorp is building MRO in Bandung with French MRO provider SECAMIC SECAMIC : Leader français de l'exportation de services aéronautiques apportés aux opérateurs d'aéronefs dans le monde entier. which clear shown this is part of off set agreement on Rafale deal. However this MRO clearly not just aim for Rafale, and I suspect to other aerospace products with French and Euro parts.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
I think we really need to look for a replacement for those three 737-2X9 Surveillers. At this moment they are already more than 40 years old, if Indonesia decides to order the P-8, those Surveillers will be more than 50 years old at the moment the P-8s are delivered.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
I have more confidence on potential deal for P-8 then E-7. Simply due to Boeing bring P-8 on their booth rather then E-7. Alltough TNI-AL so far hinted more on PAL P-6.
Busines Indonesia seems quote differently then Kontan on Airlangga Hartarto (Economics Coordinator Minister) on potential military equipment being included in Negotiation Nego Tarif Trump, Indonesia Siap Borong Alutsista hingga Pesawat AS. However so far they are the only one that quote on potential defense items deals, others including Kontan not mentioned that.
Still I suspect for Boeing Commercial that are being given more on deals, but not closed posibilities of Boeing military come out later on in negotiation.
Busines Indonesia seems quote differently then Kontan on Airlangga Hartarto (Economics Coordinator Minister) on potential military equipment being included in Negotiation Nego Tarif Trump, Indonesia Siap Borong Alutsista hingga Pesawat AS. However so far they are the only one that quote on potential defense items deals, others including Kontan not mentioned that.
Still I suspect for Boeing Commercial that are being given more on deals, but not closed posibilities of Boeing military come out later on in negotiation.
Yes but I remain skeptical that anything will come out of it.
Havelsan is a system integrator and have experience with Turkiye E-7 program. But DI is not very experienced or capable at this level. There is also the question of the radar itself. If it is something new, say from Aselsan, the risk and cost will be even higher... For just a few (2, 3?) platforms. Not to mention how long this will potentially take.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Yes that's where Havelsan come in, providing tech experience on integration of AEW&C tech from various sources of suppliers. At least that's my understanding from what been gather so far from all information circling around.
I don't think they want to reinventing from scratch, there are simply too expensive and you are right on that. However TNI-AU want to find system in market, integrate all available on the shelf tech and products and able to be use with various Fighters types, radars, and missiles system that TNI have or planning to procure. They already source Greece Scytalys to help them create base network. Now they seems want all systems to be able to work on that parameters.
It is harder work to be done and choose, but TNI and MinDef wants political independency to work it out on every system they have procure. That's seems why they choose this way on working. Which is also (if no other political consideration) why so far they are avoiding US base systems. US are not that open to let their systems intergrate to other systems especially if it is Rusian or Chinese.
Personally I still suspect on SAAB Erieye base on fact that in the last IndoDefence they are the only supplier that bring AEW&C. Their booth is small and basically what they are selling mostly focus on AEW&C solutions. French are also choosing Erieye and Prabowo's have strong inclined to use what Frenchie and also Turkiye practices.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Trump ramps up trade war with tariff blitz targeting 14 countries
Trump threatens to impose tariffs of 25-40 percent from August 1 unless countries make concessions on trade.
www-aljazeera-com.cdn.ampproject.org
This will be interesting to see if they (Prabowo's administration) want US defense products or continue to aim for ISTAR free defense products and tech.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
3 type of missiles that reported already include as part of missile package of Rafale deals. Photo from one of Indonesian Enthusiast that put it online as his visit at IndoDefence. If this is the missile package, then so far MinDef and TNI-AU focus more on Air to Air capabilities for Rafale.
Altough it is also rumours they are talking with MBDA for Exocet AM39 and SCALP missile for surface and maritime attack capabilities later on.
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Mica NG RF also rumours similiar type with VL Mica that being procure by TNI-AL for PKR SIGMA Light Frigate and Bung Tomo class Corvette.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Local simulator company call AVS, shown their Ground Forward Air Control which they build for TNI-AU special forces Korpasgat. This provide integrated air support and ground operation simulation.
Anyway no additional Rafale being put on agreement yet, as previously being predicted during Prabowo's meeting with Macron in Paris. Makes me suspect they are wait whether has to use the budget for F-15EX, in case the Boeing Airliners, Oil and Gas, Agriculture and Minerals investment are not enough for Trump.
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Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Antaranews doesn't give any details....
Trump umumkan kesepakatan besar dengan Presiden Prabowo
...but Detik comfirms what you suspected, Indonesia will maybe order Boeings for Garuda. Garuda ordered 50 737 MAX-8 in 2014, but that was put on hold after the two 737 MAX disasters, and only one 737 MAX-8 was delivered. It seems Garuda prefer to convert the order to 737 MAX-10, but Bloomberg reported earlier this month that Garuda is also interested in 787s.
Trump Sebut RI Bakal Beli 50 Pesawat Boeing-Impor Energi dari AS Rp 244 T
Garuda still has around 45 738s and some older A330-300 in its fleet. It already has ordered A330-800s and A330-900s, but for fleet expansion, some 787-9s are probably necessary.
Garuda Indonesia eyes Boeing 737 MAX, 787 Dreamliner jets, CEO says - Air Data News
Indonesia says it will sign $43 billion pact with US partners ahead of tariff talks deadline
So, the good news is that TNI-AU will not get the F-15EX, the bad news is that TNI-AU still has to fly the 737-2X9 Surveiller for the next decade.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
According from sources in here it is actually 70-80 Boeing Airliners consists of 50 737 Max and up to 20-30 Dreamliners. However seems initial deal will focus with Max. So lets wait on the details. However if this is all, seems Trump satisfied enough without F-15EX enter calculation. Than it will have more room to add aditional rafale or Airbus MRTT.
www.bfmtv.com
Rafale, canons Caesar, sous-marins Scorpène... L'armée indonésienne est devenue la "petite sœur" de l'armée française en Asie
La France et l'Indonésie célèbrent en 2025 le 75ème anniversaire de leur coopération bilatérale. Invitée d'honneur du 14-Juillet, l'Indonésie est un partenaire de premier plan de la France dans la zone Indo-Pacifique.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
From Keris FB. TNI-AU chief visit Leonardo facilities for AW189 (which already got nod to order) and getting presentation for M346 Block 20. Seems LCA for Hawk 200/100 replacement on paper will be Rafale. However indication they are still looking for LCA either FA-50 Block 20 or M346 Block 20.
The target still 11-12 sq, thus with all development so far, I respeculate how they can get 11-12 sq:
- 4 sq Rafale (3 existing 42 order and potential 12-24 additional batch),
- 2 sq LCA (as Hawk 200 replacement),
- 1 sq COIN,
- 3 sq F-16 (currently 2 in Madiun AB and 1 in Pekanbaru AB). This one rumours going to be replace by KF/IF-21 by next decade,
- 1 sq of Flankers. This one that being lobby to be replace or add by 1 sq of Su-35, while other rumour replace by 2 sq of F-15EX.
. What about J-10C ? Well rumours say the lobby for non western Fighters can still happen on the costs of Flankers (if somehow Prabowo need to get bit cozy with Xi in balancing Trump).Again Indonesian planning are politics first and defense requirements second. Thus the last one can be 2 sq Su-35 or 2 sq of J-10C or 2sq of F-15EX. All depends on US or BRICS leaning game. Can KF/IF-21 being replace by more Rafale ? Off course the potential still there as Dasault still looby on building assembly line for Rafale with DI instead KF/IF-21. However seems KAI now regained some support.
How entertaining predicting defense procurement base on political wind rather defence rationale.
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Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
I don't see the point to replace the Hawk Mk109/209 with the Aermacchi M346, and not the T-50/TA-50/FA-50. This is not only a downgrade, but the M346 is a twin engine aircraft, which makes it more expensive and complicated in operations and maintenance. And of course TNI-AU get again a new type of aircraft from a new manufacturer and also with an engine we are not familiar with.
There is even not a political reason to choose the M346. So i hope they stay with the KAI aircraft as advanced trainer and LCA.
And about the AW189, i hope they can return the single EH101, to get some discount/cash back in exchange for the ordered AW189.
There is even not a political reason to choose the M346. So i hope they stay with the KAI aircraft as advanced trainer and LCA.
And about the AW189, i hope they can return the single EH101, to get some discount/cash back in exchange for the ordered AW189.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
From what I gather that EH101 was not source officialy from Leonardo. That's why the procurement become corruption charges. Indonesia Goverment basically stuck with that EH101, as no other parties can be claim to recompensate the payment. You can't ask compensation from string of unofficial middlemen outside Indonesia.
Well you have to get quotation from several products before decide the one to procure. Rafale before being choose get counter quotation from Eurofighter (and this is not for 2nd hand Austrian Eurofighter, but from official Eurofighter consortium). Remember asside Eurofighter, Rafale also compete against Su-35.
Still this move with Leonardo at least confirm they are still looking for LCA. Previously the signal indicating LCA being replace by MRCA (in this Rafale).
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Well, that thing still should have a value. Just "tukar tambah". I am sure Agusta-Westland can use the spareparts or even resell it as second hand.
One squadron of heavy fighters, some squadrons of medium fighters (F-16 + Rafale) and some squadrons for light fighters to get the required amount of squadrons. It makes sense.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
That Heavy Fighter squadron more and more can be questioned whether will be maintained. The plan MLU for Flankers now seems not progressing. The Su-35 lobbies seems will face political hurdles if Trump reverse his more benign position to Putin. While Trump seems satisfied enough with Boeing Commercial deal, thus raise question whether deal with Boeing Defense still needed.
Politics pendulum still swinging, while budget reality can put more pressure on operating Heavy Fighters. At least Flankers operation already shown, and no guarantee F-15 operational can provide less taxing on budget as Flankers does at this moment.
Except that we have zero need for heavy fighters. Exactly what use are they in the context of Indonesia's air defense? Deep strike? Deep strike where? We are not an aggressor nation. We will defend our country, but a defensive posture can be better served by having more Rafale rather than a small number of heavy fighters.
Even the need for light fighters are questionable, but well, we already have T-50 so adding TA-50 doesn't add an entirely new set of logistical challenge. But things like M-346? What niche does it fill that the Super Tucano or TA-50 can't?
The concept of heavy, medium, and light fighter is a Cold War relic that was maybe appropriate for the US and USSR back then but isn't really relevant for today's Indonesia. It's a shame that our armed forces are slow to adapt to the post-Cold War defense needs.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Yes, like i also said in post #3334, i don't see the point in adding the M-346 in the fleet.
Probably replacing the Hawk Mk.53, 109 and 209 by only the T-/TA-50 is too convenient, cost effective and efficient. It has to be complicated, ineffective and chaotic.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
I like to highlight this, as asside Politics driven more procurement, the brass that make decision also have bit outdate thingking. Few years ago, got info from finance guys say that the middle rank (major to colonel level) usually quite update on tech development. However the two stars above still maintain conservatives thinking on how to war is worked.
They are still use 90's desert storm operation as bentchmark. However new stars level that come from middle ranks this recent years hopefully more tech savy. I see also the 'enthusiasm' to keep maintaning Flankers are questionable in my opinion. The MLU plan is not at same level as MLU done or plan for F-16.
So if Politics not demand F-15EX as part of trade deal, who knows in the end the MRCA going to be Rafale and MLU - Ozgur F-16. Rumours circulating again saying the J-10C only being look as alternative if Ozgur MLU by Turkiye for F-16 fleet, being veto by US.