Indonesian Aero News

[Ananda]

I would like to repost what I have post long time ago on the difference between how the budget process work between Rupiah/IDR financing project and Foreign/USD financing project. Cause this's be the difference whether one project can only pass ministrial level or need to go all the way to cabinet approval.

When a ministry (including MinDef) put forward an IDR Project, the process is much faster. Those projects will not get much scrutiny from Ministry of Finance or Bapenas, since it will be directly finance from budget allocated to each ministry. Thus usually they only review the compliance process on budget preparations. The Cabinet then usually only being reported on the implementation report.

Financing for IDR Project usually coming from budget or domestic Credit finance by some of my colleagues in SOE Banks. MinDef projects like small ammo or light vehicles from Pindad or Patrol Boats (including KCR 40 and 60), LST, or even Tankers are example of this kind of projects. That's why the implementation on those projects are much faster.
This kind of projects usually will have larger local content. 122mm rocket is also example of IDR finance project.

However difference story happen on Foreign/USD Financing projects. Ministry of Finance still call it USD Financing, as I have put in other thread, global financing even without US parties, still Finance through USD instruments. Since USD instruments is the most liquid financing instruments, follow then by Euro and Yen.

This kind of projects usually the kind of projects that need much larger foreign contents and involved Tech that local Industry still can't produce. I put example on 122mm rocket as IDR project, since (another example) when MinDef try to work out Domestic missile SSM using C705 as based, they found out significant hurdle from Domestic Industry. The domestic industry still have trouble sourcing and develop acceptable guidance system locally. The propelant that developed locally for 122 mm rocket still not provide sufficient enough boost power for SSM. For that local industry need foreign partner to develop further. When they need foreign partner, then guess what most of the time it will become Foreign Financing projects (cause it will used large amount of foreign currency financings).

When the project become foreign Financing, the scrutiny in Bapenas and Ministry of Finance become significantly harder and longer. Those two institutions will have to calculate the project towards overall National Priority. Because when the project become Foreign Financing most of the time it will also become National Project. Then those MinDef foreign Financing project will have to compete not only with other MinDef projects but also with other National Priority project.

Those two institutions will also scrutiny whose the Foreign Suppliers or Partners going to be. What is the term of co-op of financing, how the financial risk or penalty if one parties failed in terms, and other usual project financing risk. They will then calculate on other projects financing risks as part on priority calculation. After that they will find and negotiate with Foreign Creditors (as mostly Foreign Financing will be using Foreign Creditors) to find if the term acceptable based on their Financial Risk Appetite. When it's already Ok with both of them, it will go to Cabinet stage which basically will be decided by President. President will again weight on the priority compare to other projects.

Those stages are much difficult compared to IDR Financing projects, due it's has to be calculated to Foreign Reserve and Foreign Financing threshold.
Like it or not most of MinDef big project including what Ahmad put in his slide is considered Foreign Financing projects (again due to Foreign Currency and potential Foreign Creditors exposure). Eventough it's already been talk in high level discussion, but it's still not passing both Bapenas and Ministry of Finance, let alone final cut in Cabinet.

That's why I ask Ahmad if he has prove that the Project already become Priority. Because if they already become National Priority projects, it already has to pass those hurdles that I post above. The projects that already pass the Ministry of Finance and Bapenas will be put on their announcement. It's part of transparency that Parliament and Market expect. Why market matter in here ? Again most of financing for Foreign Financing projects will come from Finance Market (except large US Defense procurement project that usually Finance by US Exim Bank, which's US Government institution and not commercial market ones)

So Ahmad, it's pointless that you or some other Indonesian enthusiasts in other forums talking on not disclosing what MinDef Projects. Cause once they are coming out from Ministry Of Finance it will be transparent to the Publics. Especially the Foreign Financing ones. This's happen to most of the OECD countries and countries that now try to implement more discipline fiscal policies like Indonesia. Off course the ministry of finance announcement will not shown the classified information parts of the project. However they will shown what kind of projects that will need foreign Financing or even IDR financing.

If the project has not pass Ministry Of Finance, then it's still projects under consideration. Definitely not in the same level as the projects that already being announce by Minister of Research and Tech as tempo article put.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Resmikan Satuan Peluru Kendali, KSAU: TNI AU Harus Tingkatkan Kewaspadaan

KSAU Marsekal Fadjar Prasetyo meresmikan Satuan Peluru Kendali 111. Fadjar menegaskan TNI AU harus meningkatkan kewaspadaan dalam menjaga kedaulatan RI.

news.detik.com

The NASAMS have not arrived yet, but yes, this is maybe one of the last steps before the arrival. The base in Tangerang seems to be ready, and now also the unit is prepared to receive the NASAMS.

But we still need more than those 36 AIM-120C-7 missiles we have to arm 33 F-16s AND the NASAMS launchers.

 

[Ahmad]

2 December 2020 launch

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

2 December 2020 launch


View attachment 47832

http://instagr.am/p/CISNkHtB7qu/

In 1964 LAPAN launched the Kartika I, it reached a maximum flight height of 60 km.

56 years later we reached an amazing 40 km higher altitude...

 

[Ahmad]

In 1964 LAPAN launched the Kartika I, it reached a maximum flight height of 60 km.

56 years later we reached an amazing 40 km higher altitude...

Do you mean additional 40 km altitude ?? They seem to be quite optimist to reach 200 km altitude in 2025 by using two stages rocket.

According to Lapan official, Kartika is not really indigenous. The rocket engine must be just bought from Japan or some where. It is impossible to have first launch for 60 km above the earth without developing the smaller calliber first. Soeharto also doesnt have much ambition on rocket and missile development. We are getting more serious since SBY took office, but Lapan still develop their rocket knowledge after Soeharto took power but not as ambitious during Soekarno.

 

[Ahmad]

They are also developing liquid engine rocket, this is for the last stages rocket for delivering the micro satellite into the right position. Liquid engine rocket is much easier to be controlled.

 

[tonnyc]

They seem to be quite optimist to reach 200 km altitude in 2025 by using two stages rocket.

LAPAN's timeline tends to be ambitious but the goal is workable. The next step is testing the RX-550. This likely will take a few years. There had been static tests for the RX-550, but no launches after a 2011 launch failed. So they need to launch the RX-550 successfully several times to prove the design.

After that, the next step is stacking the RX-450 on top of the RX-550. This also likely will take a few years.

The main obstacle is going to be money. I am actually surprised they got this rocket launched this year. I thought all government R&D projects that aren't related to COVID-19 got paused this year.

Anyway, if funding is increased, the 2025 target is reachable. If it stays the same, or even decreased, then I'm guessing 2030.

Re: Kartika. Kartika is likely not fully indigenous, however, it was not an imported Japanese rocket. The Kappa rocket from Japan came after Kartika launched. However, I suspect Kartika is a modified Soviet rocket, possibly the SA-2. At the very least, the bottom part of Kartika looks a lot like an SA-2 rocket. It's not just a straight SA-2 rocket though. A standard SA-2 won't be able to reach 60 km altitude, so it must have undergone significant modification. Likely the removal of the warhead and using the weight saving for extra propellant, at the very least.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

LAPAN's timeline tends to be ambitious but the goal is workable. The next step is testing the RX-550. This likely will take a few years. There had been static tests for the RX-550, but no launches after a 2011 launch failed. So they need to launch the RX-550 successfully several times to prove the design.

After that, the next step is stacking the RX-450 on top of the RX-550. This also likely will take a few years.

The main obstacle is going to be money. I am actually surprised they got this rocket launched this year. I thought all government R&D projects that aren't related to COVID-19 got paused this year.

Anyway, if funding is increased, the 2025 target is reachable. If it stays the same, or even decreased, then I'm guessing 2030.

Re: Kartika. Kartika is likely not fully indigenous, however, it was not an imported Japanese rocket. The Kappa rocket from Japan came after Kartika launched. However, I suspect Kartika is a modified Soviet rocket, possibly the SA-2. At the very least, the bottom part of Kartika looks a lot like an SA-2 rocket. It's not just a straight SA-2 rocket though. A standard SA-2 won't be able to reach 60 km altitude, so it must have undergone significant modification. Likely the removal of the warhead and using the weight saving for extra propellant, at the very least.

From which i understand Indonesia is the second Asian country which launched an own sounding rocket, after Japan.
If im not wrong the first Kappa rocket was launched in 1956 and by 1960, the Κ-8 rocket had reached an altitude of 200 km.

 

[Ahmad]

LAPAN's timeline tends to be ambitious but the goal is workable. The next step is testing the RX-550. This likely will take a few years. There had been static tests for the RX-550, but no launches after a 2011 launch failed. So they need to launch the RX-550 successfully several times to prove the design.

After that, the next step is stacking the RX-450 on top of the RX-550. This also likely will take a few years.

The main obstacle is going to be money. I am actually surprised they got this rocket launched this year. I thought all government R&D projects that aren't related to COVID-19 got paused this year.

Anyway, if funding is increased, the 2025 target is reachable. If it stays the same, or even decreased, then I'm guessing 2030.

Re: Kartika. Kartika is likely not fully indigenous, however, it was not an imported Japanese rocket. The Kappa rocket from Japan came after Kartika launched. However, I suspect Kartika is a modified Soviet rocket, possibly the SA-2. At the very least, the bottom part of Kartika looks a lot like an SA-2 rocket. It's not just a straight SA-2 rocket though. A standard SA-2 won't be able to reach 60 km altitude, so it must have undergone significant modification. Likely the removal of the warhead and using the weight saving for extra propellant, at the very least.

Yup, the budget was slashed very sharply in the first Covid pandemic attack period, but I think since Gov has done huge borrowing for economic stimulus purposes in the following months, they have the capacity to fund the program as the cost is penny compared to that 700 trillion Rupiah stimulus budget to push the economy forward. Total LAPAN budget before the cut is only about 800 billion Rupiah in 2020 and this budget also need to be shared with so many programs with the biggest spending must be on paying the salary, this is why I think our leadership is not really having strong ambition in developing technology in the country.

 

[tonnyc]

From which i understand Indonesia is the second Asian country which launched an own sounding rocket, after Japan.
If im not wrong the first Kappa rocket was launched in 1956 and by 1960, the Κ-8 rocket had reached an altitude of 200 km.

(Shrug) Japan had a lot of help from the US on the technical side and a continuous program. In contrast, the pioneering effort done by Gama-1&2 and Ganesha rockets got interrupted in 1965-1966 with the fall of Soekarno. Soeharto, as has been pointed out, wasn't interested in this field of technology.

Making things complicated, the Missile Technology Control Regime was established in 1987, making more advanced countries very reluctant to teach us advanced rocketry. Sure the RX-450 is supposed to be 100 km only, well below the threshold established by the MTCR, and yes LAPAN is a civilian institution, but we admit publicly that our goal is to be able to send satellites to low earth orbit, and anything that can send a satellite to LEO will be able to send a warhead to a target further than 300 km away. So we don't get much help in jumpstarting our rocketry and while we get some help, we can't get transfer of technology to jumpstart our rocketry.

 

[Ahmad]

(Shrug) Japan had a lot of help from the US on the technical side and a continuous program. In contrast, the pioneering effort done by Gama-1&2 and Ganesha rockets got interrupted in 1965-1966 with the fall of Soekarno. Soeharto, as has been pointed out, wasn't interested in this field of technology.

Making things complicated, the Missile Technology Control Regime was established in 1987, making more advanced countries very reluctant to teach us advanced rocketry. Sure the RX-450 is supposed to be 100 km only, well below the threshold established by the MTCR, and yes LAPAN is a civilian institution, but we admit publicly that our goal is to be able to send satellites to low earth orbit, and anything that can send a satellite to LEO will be able to send a warhead to a target further than 300 km away. So we don't get much help in jumpstarting our rocketry and while we get some help, we can't get transfer of technology to jumpstart our rocketry.

We can get help from Iran or North Korea for that purpose, but of course in order to have such help we need to give them some concession. We are in good term with those two and even for Iran we still have trading relation. This soft Biden administration should be our opportunity to make cooperation with those two for rocketry development.

Pakistan also produces good missile but I dont know whether crucial parts in their home grown missile comes from China or really indigenous. There is metallurgy thing as well. The nozzel should be able to withstand intense heat. Lapan said this program requires other party involvement. I dont know if government also give adequate money for R&D in metallurgy, the steel raw material used to make many parts of the rocket is of course not made by Lapan. Metallurgy research is also important for cruise missile development, particularly for the turbojet engine components.

 

[Ahmad]

From which i understand Indonesia is the second Asian country which launched an own sounding rocket, after Japan.
If im not wrong the first Kappa rocket was launched in 1956 and by 1960, the Κ-8 rocket had reached an altitude of 200 km.

Do you mean this K-8 missile ? It only has 23 km range. Yup I also think Russian imported rocket engine is the most possible reason of why Kartika can reach that good altitude in 1960, which is a very beginning period of our rocket development. Regular Lapan rocket launch during Soeharto period also started from small calliber first and still cannot reach that altitude even until Soeharto fall down. Despite so, Kartika rocket is still not a fully imported one since some Indonesia researchers also contribute in the program, including one of of our great researcher in electronics field.

K-8 (missile) - Wikipedia

 

[Ahmad]

Here the YT channel from LAPAN that shows the recent launch that was conducted yesterday.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Do you mean this K-8 missile ? It only has 23 km range. Yup I also think Russian imported rocket engine is the most possible reason of why Kartika can reach that good altitude in 1960, which is a very beginning period of our rocket development. Regular Lapan rocket launch during Soeharto period also started from small calliber first and still cannot reach that altitude even until Soeharto fall down. Despite so, Kartika rocket is still not a fully imported one since some Indonesia researchers also contribute in the program, including one of of our great researcher in electronics field.

K-8 (missile) - Wikipedia

No not that one, this one Kappa (rocket) - Wikipedia

Kappa

Kappa space exploration

web.archive.org

Here more info about ISAS, now part of JAXA, the organisation behind the Kapparockets.

Institute of Space and Astronautical Science - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Although the development of Indonesia's sounding rockets in more than 50 years is disappointing and lags behind other Asian countries, it is still amazing what LAPAN can do with such a tiny budget.

 

[tonnyc]

We can get help from Iran or North Korea for that purpose, but of course in order to have such help we need to give them some concession. We are in good term with those two and even for Iran we still have trading relation. This soft Biden administration should be our opportunity to make cooperation with those two for rocketry development.

Pakistan also produces good missile but I dont know whether crucial parts in their home grown missile comes from China or really indigenous. There is metallurgy thing as well. The nozzel should be able to withstand intense heat. Lapan said this program requires other party involvement. I dont know if government also give adequate money for R&D in metallurgy, the steel raw material used to make many parts of the rocket is of course not made by Lapan. Metallurgy research is also important for cruise missile development, particularly for the turbojet engine components.

Just to make sure people don't misunderstand things, there is no tech cooperation with North Korea at the moment. Besides, all their advanced techs are of Chinese origin anyway, and we already have an R&D cooperation program with China. There are some R&D cooperation with Iran, but this is a long-standing generic cooperation. Also, there are no big research project with secretive foreign scientists and engineers doing top secret things. Rather, it's more "we give you access to our research findings and you give us access to yours".

There is a recent agreement with China for joint R&D in the field of rocketry. This got very little coverage locally (Indonesian language article linked) and practically no international coverage. There were also some cooperation with Ukraine too in the past. But like I said before, there's no big project with secretive foreign scientists and engineers doing mysterious things. Just the usual exchange of data, maybe purchases of tools and equipment, a few visit to their facilities to observe and learn, stuff like that.

We welcome all countries when it comes to scientific research and development. Just, uh, we don't have lots of money.
(grumbles about lack of investment in R&D in general)

 

[Ananda]

L'Indonésie souhaite monter à bord du Rafale (Dassault Aviation)

L'Indonésie souhaite rapidement finaliser un accord sur l'achat de 48 Rafale. Paris et Djakarta ont également l'intention de signer un accord de coopération en matière de défense.

www.latribune.fr

Why the heck French media still talking of 48 Rafale deal with Indonesia ? Do they still think Indonesian AF budget can afford 48 Rafale ?

32 F-16V and 15 ex Austrian Eurofighters are cost less than 48 Rafale..even that it's still not showing any sign will be close soon.
Anyway it's fun to see the French optimism. If Prabowo manage to convince Jokowi on Rafale, he's really smooth political player. It means he's manage to convince most Large political factions, cause that's going to be the largest single deal for TNI-AU outside perhaps Soekarno's deal with USSR (in relative time value comparison).

One thing for sure, if this deal got through even against all odds, that guy Alman will get big hefty bonus. Perhaps his tweets manage to build public opinion after all.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

L'Indonésie souhaite monter à bord du Rafale (Dassault Aviation)

L'Indonésie souhaite rapidement finaliser un accord sur l'achat de 48 Rafale. Paris et Djakarta ont également l'intention de signer un accord de coopération en matière de défense.

www.latribune.fr

Why the heck French media still talking of 48 Rafale deal with Indonesia ? Do they still think Indonesian AF budget can afford 48 Rafale ?

32 F-16V and 15 ex Austrian Eurofighters are cost less than 48 Rafale..even that it's still not showing any sign will be close soon.
Anyway it's fun to see the French optimism. If Prabowo manage to convince Jokowi on Rafale, he's really smooth political player. It means he's manage to convince most Large political factions, cause that's going to be the largest single deal for TNI-AU outside perhaps Soekarno's deal with USSR (in relative time value comparison).

One thing for sure, if this deal got through even against all odds, that guy Alman will get big hefty bonus. Perhaps his tweets manage to build public opinion after all.

- Yes, the French are very optimistic.
- No, the Oracle on Twitter has almost zero public opinion influence with only less than 1100 followers. You overestimate his importance and lobbyingpower and because of that also his bonus (if he even deserve it with only his daily empty statements and predictions). Maybe he has more channels than only Twitter, but even than he is a small player.

Alright, now i will use my predictional superpowers:
- The 48 Rafales: highly unlikely.
- The 32 F-16V and 15 EF2000: still unlikely, but this has a higher chance.
- Looking to the last 6 years of this administration, we are really lucky if TNI-AU will got one single squadron of second hand F-16s.
- And we must not forget this option: zero acquisitions!

 

[Ananda]

You overestimate his importance and lobbyingpower and because of that also his bonus (if he even deserve it with only his daily empty statements and predictions). Maybe he has more channels

It's call sarcasm , off course he's small player in overall Defense Contractor lobbyist in here. Still if this project got implement, all the Euro lobbyist (especially like him that already shown tendencies toward French stuff) players including him will get hefty bonus (off course the size will be relative to each position).

For me, I still see that next year especially if vaccine already implement, some Defense procurement especially for TNI-AU will be implemented. This's due not to improvement of Defense management of this administration (that remain to be seen and I'm still part of sceptical public), but more to the need to rebalance US-Indonesia trade. Whether it's Trump or Bidden administration, both will push that. Bidden will be just lest vulgar than Trump, but their aim in trade balance will be the same.

Problem is what kind of US Products we will increase the import ? US cars practically already gone from Indonesian market. The only new US cars that come are Tesla's. However with that price it will be small and only to premium segment that begin to see benefits of Electric cars. US meats will always behind Aussies and NZ meats in Indonesia market. The electronics like in cars will be dominates by Japan, South Korean, Chinese, and Local producers that have manufacturing facilities in here. There's also software, it will still increasing, but will not be enough. So it left with Aerospace Products, which also one place that US still have dominant possition.

As for Aerospace Products it can come from civil aviation. DI uses high portion of US Products in their aircraft, however DI still small aerospace producer. While for Airlines, COVID or no COVID condition and no matter how big Boeing orders from Indonesian Airlines, not all of the procurement will be directly affected Trade Balance. This's due that like all Airlines in the world, most of their airplanes are leases, while significant portion of their leasing company not originate from US.

Thus it's left with Government projects, and that's mean TNI ones. Most of them will be finance through US Exim Bank, thus will directly reflect on trade balance. As now we're also using Multi Years budgeting, it will be also effect multi years trade balance. This's where I believe why this administration will still need to keep US trade interest, with procurement of Defense articles with them.

 

[Ananda]

La vente de Rafale à l'Indonésie "très bien avancée", dit Parly

(Actualisé avec déclarations de Florence Parly)PARIS, 3 décembre (Reuters) - La négociation avec l'Indonésie sur une commande de 36 Rafale, avion de chasse de Dassault Aviation, est "très bien avancée", a déclaré jeudi la ministre française des Armées, Florence Parly.Cette commande "n'est pas...

investir.lesechos.fr

Now the French Defense Minister talk about 36 Rafale on advance stages of negotiations. I don't know what to make this, but if a minister already officially talk perhaps it's really have more substance.

Some 'rumours' circulate that Indonesia will compensate US with procurement of Boeing MPA, CH-47, and MV-22. While the Fighters will go with Euro sources.

This's will be a night mare on logistics

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

La vente de Rafale à l'Indonésie "très bien avancée", dit Parly

(Actualisé avec déclarations de Florence Parly)PARIS, 3 décembre (Reuters) - La négociation avec l'Indonésie sur une commande de 36 Rafale, avion de chasse de Dassault Aviation, est "très bien avancée", a déclaré jeudi la ministre française des Armées, Florence Parly.Cette commande "n'est pas...

investir.lesechos.fr

Now the French Defense Minister talk about 36 Rafale on advance stages of negotiations. I don't know what to make this, but if a minister already officially talk perhaps it's really have more substance.

Some 'rumours' circulate that Indonesia will compensate US with procurement of Boeing MPA, CH-47, and MV-22. While the Fighters will go with Euro sources.

This's will be a night mare on logistics

The Boeing 737 P-8 is a quite logic choice, having already the 737 origins and classics in the fleet, but ordering CH-47 AND MV-22B thats indeed a logistic nightmare. And also impossible with such a small budget.

The BAe Hawks are already from Europe, a new European jetfighter replacing the Hawks shouldnt be a problem.