Indonesian Aero News

[Ananda]

As long as they don't blend Eurofighters with Rafale. Either one not both of them. TNI-AU just open Simulators facilities for the Flankers, thus that type will still be in inventory. F-16 fleet being upgrade, thus it'll also stay. It left the Hawks, guess it will be the type that going to retirement in this decade.

I don't know what will the French offer, but it must be really substantial toward Local Defense industry program. It'll take a lot for Dasault to beat Airbus in Indonesia Defense procurement.

 

[Redlands18]

The Boeing 737 P-8 is a quite logic choice, having already the 737 origins and classics in the fleet, but ordering CH-47 AND MV-22B thats indeed a logistic nightmare. And also impossible with such a small budget.

The BAe Hawks are already from Europe, a new European jetfighter replacing the Hawks shouldnt be a problem.

One question though, would Indonesia get access to the full spec P-8A or would they have to accept a version of the down spec P-8I like India? The P-8A so far has been sold only to three 5eye nations, a NATO member and the ROK.

 

[Ananda]

I don't have enough information that P-8I is downspec from P-8A, since from my understanding India choose to put some of their own sensors and other sensors on their own choosing. Indonesian present CN-235 MPA also mostly used Thales sensors, thus there's possibility if the deal for P8 coming through, Indonesia will choose some Thales sensors.

However I have a bit of doubt on that, considering I suspect US will try to get as much as possible of their system. This to get as much as possible of contract values toward US Defense Industry.
The 737 surveyor MPA that TNI-AU has since the 80's got Hughes SLAM radar, that considered cutting edge for MPA duties in the 80's. From what I gather Boeing co-op with TNI-AU as consultants to used data performance of Indonesian 737 MPA as part one of database on how 737 doing MPA performance for future 737 MPA (thus P8).

It's one of reason why Indonesia wants P8, cause TNI-AU already used 737 based MPA.

 

[Redlands18]

I don't have enough information that P-8I is downspec from P-8A, since from my understanding India choose to put some of their own sensors and other sensors on their own choosing. Indonesian present CN-235 MPA also mostly used Thales sensors, thus there's possibility if the deal for P8 coming through, Indonesia will choose some Thales sensors.

However I have a bit of doubt on that, considering I suspect US will try to get as much as possible of their system. This to get as much as possible of contract values toward US Defense Industry.
The 737 surveyor MPA that TNI-AU has since the 80's got Hughes SLAM radar, that considered cutting edge for MPA duties in the 80's. From what I gather Boeing co-op with TNI-AU as consultants to used data performance of Indonesian 737 MPA as part one of database on how 737 doing MPA performance for future 737 MPA (thus P8).

It's one of reason why Indonesia wants P8, cause TNI-AU already used 737 based MPA.

The major difference between the P-8A and the P-8I is the latter is fitted with a MAD Boom, the USN has however done away with the Boom with the P-8A.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

N219-update....
"Nusawiru (03/12/2020), One step ahead! N219 (PD1) completed the flight test for Certification of Flight Physic purposes with DGCA on board and they were safe flying with N219! Ready to face another challenges head on"

Picture taken from IPTN's Facebook account.

 

[Ahmad]

N219-update....
"Nusawiru (03/12/2020), One step ahead! N219 (PD1) completed the flight test for Certification of Flight Physic purposes with DGCA on board and they were safe flying with N219! Ready to face another challenges head on"

Picture taken from IPTN's Facebook account.

They are still optimistic to complete the certification this year despite it is already in December. They said the last test is for some tests conducted by second prototype plane.

 

[Khabaopie]

I dug up an (Indonesian language) article about the Rafale from earlier this year. Forgive my limited Indonesian but I would like to summarise the article as succinctly as possible. Within is an interview of TNI AU pilots who have seen the aircraft demonstrated and trained in exercises alongside; all of whom gush about the Rafale’s abject superiority to current TNI AU assets which stems from its multirole capability afforded by its advanced sensors and electronics such as the Thales SPECTRA.

My questions are, IF the deal will indeed proceed (big if, considering the current administration’s track record thus far) is it realistic to expect an Indonesian Rafale to hypothetically receive “the full package” as it were? (e.g. the TNI AD’s Leopard 2RIs lack much of the upgrades its manufacturer touted due to budgetary constraints) Furthermore, would a Rafale purchase necessitate a commensurate order of the MBDA Meteor, or could they be armed from the existing stock (such as it is) of AIM-120s. Finally, do the more knowledgeable agree with the aforementioned pilots’ testimonies?

I have found scant information (at least which I understand) about the Indian Rafales, are they modified in any significant way to those used by the Armée de l'Air?

 

[tonnyc]

@Khabaopie It's not realistic. We all hope for a pleasant surprise, but it's not realistic.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I dug up an (Indonesian language) article about the Rafale from earlier this year. Forgive my limited Indonesian but I would like to summarise the article as succinctly as possible. Within is an interview of TNI AU pilots who have seen the aircraft demonstrated and trained in exercises alongside; all of whom gush about the Rafale’s abject superiority to current TNI AU assets which stems from its multirole capability afforded by its advanced sensors and electronics such as the Thales SPECTRA.

My questions are, IF the deal will indeed proceed (big if, considering the current administration’s track record thus far) is it realistic to expect an Indonesian Rafale to hypothetically receive “the full package” as it were? (e.g. the TNI AD’s Leopard 2RIs lack much of the upgrades its manufacturer touted due to budgetary constraints) Furthermore, would a Rafale purchase necessitate a commensurate order of the MBDA Meteor, or could they be armed from the existing stock (such as it is) of AIM-120s. Finally, do the more knowledgeable agree with the aforementioned pilots’ testimonies?

I have found scant information (at least which I understand) about the Indian Rafales, are they modified in any significant way to those used by the Armée de l'Air?

From which i understand, the Rafale is not compatible with the AIM-120. So, if the Rafale will be ordered, it has to be a package which includes the Meteor and/or the MICA.

But its not even predictable if the Indonesian government really will order the Rafale, let alone which package, version and quantity. Looking to the past, from EC-120B to Hawk Mk.109, Indonesia get often the cheapest most standard version. But even if TNI-AU will get the cheapest downgraded 3rd World Country FFBNW stuff, it will be a miracle, with this administration.

 

[swerve]

..., would a Rafale purchase necessitate a commensurate order of the MBDA Meteor, or could they be armed from the existing stock (such as it is) of AIM-120s.

AFAIK AIM-120 has not been integrated with Rafale, & it would probably need US cooperation.

Meteor is not the only BVR AAM for Rafale, BTW. There's also Mica, & the Mica NG (which seems to be pretty much a new missile under the skin) will be available in a few years, with a significantly increased range.

 

[Ananda]

Plt Menhan AS Sowan Prabowo di Jakarta, Ada Apa Ya?

Kunjungan tersebut merupakan yang pertama bagi Miller selepas ditunjuk mengisi kekosongan posisi yang ditinggalkan Mark Esper.

www.cnbcindonesia.com

Acting Defense Secretary Miller meet Prabowo yesterday. At this time, French already do high level talk, so does US, and Airbus lobby still too. So anything can happen.

There's also Mica, & the Mica NG (which seems to be pretty much a new missile under the skin) will be available in a few years, with a significantly increased range.

If TNI AL going to use MICA VL as their standard medium range SAM. There's potential on logistics point of view for Rafale (if happen) going to be used Mica as well.

I don't know what to think anymore, Prabowo's seems try to make deal with everyone. Rumours that I got so far from Ministry of Finance, for Fighters Prabowo's so far seems got foreign credit allotment of multi years credit line of USD 3 Bio. However he can get more if he manage to get out from KFX deal. Thus the multiyears allotment can be push to end of decade where the KFX schedule to be prepared budget for Production.

Those USD 3 Bio allotment seems from calculation of Su-35 and F-16V. If Prabowo wants to change it to all Rafale (for example), the allotment from what I hear will not change much. Again, this's rumours that I heard from Ministry of Finance. However I tend to believe the rumours from Ministry of Finance then MinDef. In the end the money come from them.

 

[ChestnutTree]

Those USD 3 Bio allotment seems from calculation of Su-35 and F-16V. If Prabowo wants to change it to all Rafale (for example), the allotment from what I hear will not change much. Again, this's rumours that I heard from Ministry of Finance. However I tend to believe the rumours from Ministry of Finance then MinDef. In the end the money come from them.

I really have no idea why Prabowo is hell bent on the Rafale and the EF even when alot of the people involved in the decision making process wants the F-16V on the basis of logistics, training, and common sense. I find it hard to believe that he is clueless when it comes to the finer details of introducing a new platform but this is just mind boggling.

Also, wouldn't introducing the Rafale imply that the TNI-AU would need to suspend operations of another type of aircraft? The current operational budget can barely keep the Sukhoi flying as it is.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I really have no idea why Prabowo is hell bent on the Rafale and the EF even when alot of the people involved in the decision making process wants the F-16V on the basis of logistics, training, and common sense. I find it hard to believe that he is clueless when it comes to the finer details of introducing a new platform but this is just mind boggling.

Also, wouldn't introducing the Rafale imply that the TNI-AU would need to suspend operations of another type of aircraft? The current operational budget can barely keep the Sukhoi flying as it is.

" the TNI-AU would need to suspend operations of another type of aircraft?"

They already did: the F-5E/F is retired some years ago.
We just have to wait and see if one or two types of jetfighters will be ordered.....or nothing at all.
Three squadrons will be enough to also replace the BAe Hawks.

 

[Ananda]

wouldn't introducing the Rafale imply that the TNI-AU would need to suspend operations of another type of aircraft? The current operational budget can barely keep the Sukhoi flying as it is.

The only type that I see will gone within this decade is Hawk 200/100. However it will not going to make much difference in the operation budget, considering it's the most economical type within TNI-AU from what I gather. Just like Sandhi says with F-5 gone plus Hawk in seems near future, they already reduce two types.

They're doing major overhaul on existing F-16, so they're seems going to keep it in the fleet. The Flankers got new facilities including Simulators, thus unless someone else (say Vietnam) want to take all the Plane and accompanying facilities, I don't see them gone.

I don't know what US move now, thus whether they still offer F-16 package or already move on to other packages like MPA, AEWC, or Tankers, well anything possible now.

Eurofighter Typhoon | Eurofighter showcases offer of indigenous capability for Indonesia

www.eurofighter.com

I put this again to remind that Airbus already give offer for Local Facilities and parts manufacturing 5 years ago. I'm pretty sure this kind of offer still on the table. From what I gather from 'rumours' from Bapenas, Airbus offer this with expectations for at least 3 sq procurement. This to make the local facilities worth while.

If Dasault can get upper hand against Eurofighter, perhaps on the thinking dealing with French will be more attainable compared dealing with Four Euro nation.If somehow Dasault offer this also, it's also can be use by MinDef as way out from KFX

The way we got in KFX deal will not much different than getting license Manufacturing (as Eurofighter/Airbus) offer. Assembly line plus involvement of DI as part of supply chain in Eurofighter or Rafale, will not much differ than IFX deal. After all IFX also only license Manufacturing of KFX with all it's IP and much of the parts manufacturing still within KAI.

That's the only reasonable explanation that I can think off if MinDef choose either Rafale or Eurofighter. If they choose both, then I don't know how to see the reasoning.

 

[Ananda]

Indonesian defence minister proposes to receive USD20 billion in foreign credit for 2020–24

Indonesia’s Minister of Defence, Prabowo Subianto, has forwarded a proposal for the country to receive up to USD20 billion in defence-related foreign credit and...

www.janes.com

I put this three months old article, just to show why personally I'm still very sceptical for this Rafale or even Eurofighters deal. Base on the foreign credit line allotment that MinDef can get for Fighters deal.

When I see USD 20 bio foreign Credit allotment, base on some talks that I got with colleagues in Bapenas and Ministry of Finance on how multi years budgeting will work, I say USD 20 bio still workable eventough in my opinion bit stretched.

As I have mentioned in this thread (or perhaps on other Indonesian Armed Forces thread), since the time of Soeharto, big Defense items procurement usually used Foreign Credit line. Which's actually quite common worldwide. Based on usual credit line that Indonesian Government used for Capital Goods procurement, the term usually similar with Sovereign MTN that Indonesian Government put in the Market.

Thus it's around 5 years to 10 years tenure period. Say this USD 20 bio credit line got 10 years tenure. Thus it means on the current Indonesian Sovereign debt rate by accumulated 10 years period, Indonesian government have to pay up to USD 24 bio on total installment and interest cost. That's mean for period of 10 years, there's USD 2.4 bio from annual defense budget will be used to pay the credit line.

The way I see, Bapenas and Ministry of Finance still doing budget even with multiyears budgeting on conservative ways. Thus if in USD term Indonesia Defence budget currently around USD 9.5 bio, then for next 10 years, they will calculate at most of USD 12-13 bio average (this's with conservative increase and calculate exchange rate fluctuations).

So USD 2.4 bio taking on from annual defense budget of USD 12 bio average for next 10 years already represents 20% of budget. So far that's percentage that being used each year for Foreign Procurement. That's why I say it's doable even bit stretched.

Thus at best Prabowo's MinDef can only doing Foreign Procurement at USD 20bio during this term. Which's why I think Jane's number still make sense.
Back to Rafale, they're talking 36 or even 48 Rafale. However that'll cost much higher then USD 3 Bio credit allotment for Fighters that I heard being allocated already. Again this USD 3bio is the calculation for 24 F-16V and 11-12 Su-35 that already being forwarded to Ministry of Finance. In such with that kind of allocation, MinDef can still expect to get 36 F-16V (if they drop Su-35 and considering TNI-AU already invest on F-16 support infrastructure), but not 36 Rafale.

Considering MinDef want to have MPA, AEWC, Heavy Lift Helicopters, Frigates, Corvettes, OPV, Area Defense Missile, etc, I'm very doubtful that they can allocate more for Fighters than USD 3 Bio that being calculate and prepare for F-16V and Su-35 before.

So unless they got more than USD 20 bio for Foreign Credit allotment, I don't think Indonesian MinDef simply can afford Rafale or Eurofighter in amount that needed. Again if looking with Bapenas and Ministry of Finance ways on preparing Multiyears budget calculation, I'm very doubtful they will allocated more Foreign Credit line to MinDef.

Jokowi's have a lot of infrastructure agenda that he's planning. I don't think he will agree for Defense budget of more than 1% of GDP during the rest of his term. Unless he drop his agenda for new capital, which I highly doubtful.

 

[ChestnutTree]

Indonesia gets US nod for F-15 and F-18 fighter jet purchases

Verbal agreement was made at meeting this week, defense official says

asia.nikkei.com

Well, this is surprising. I really thought they gave up and went straight for the MPA/AWACS and Tanker contracts instead.

@Ananda, financially speaking, how does an F-15 procurement fit into the credit line plan? Would it still be too much? The way I see it, if Prabowo does not want the F-16V, the F-15 offers a much better logistical footprint to the AU compared to the Rafale or the Eurofighter. They share the same weapons, some of the same equipment, and depending on what we do with the current Vipers they can share the same engine stock.

 

[Ananda]

Would it still be too much? The way I see it, if Prabowo does not want the F-16V, the F-15 offers a much better logistical footprint to the AU compared to the Rafale or the Eurofighter. They share the same weapons, some of the same equipment, and depending on what we do with the current Vipers they can share the same engine stock.

The question is in my opinion whether they will get more than USD 3 Bio Credit line allotment that I heard for Fighters program ? Or whether MinDef will got more allotment of overall Foreign Credit that being prepared for them by ministry of finance ? (The second one I have
doubt).

If they choose the first one then to what other program they're willing to sacrifice, if they're moving from F-16V to F-18 or F-15 or even Rafale

As mentioned before, that USD 3 Bio figure, I got as the calculation for Fighters is for 24 F-16V and 11-12 Su-35. This number being around for some time, and what I hear from colleagues Bapenas and Ministry of Finance is the Plan Procurement calculation project that being submitted before. However MinDef can change the project, but whether means they can get more fund, that's another matter.

The Jane's number of USD 20 bio seems as I put in my previous post, is the high end mark that MinDef can get for Foreign Credit allotment in this term. Remember they have to prepare IDR fund also for domestic procurement, outside their usual operation budget including maintenance and man power costs.

Question know, if they expect to get at least 36 Fighters with USD 3 bio, outside F-16V or Flankers (again considering TNI-AU already build support for that type), what other types that can be procured with that budget on with that quantity ?

Perhaps they can ask for 24 F-16V and 12 F-15X, the lifetime cost support will be cheaper for TNI-AU than 36 Rafale I believe. It will cost more than USD 3 bio, but will be lower than 36 Rafale. Still they have to sacrifice one or two other projects for TNI-AU. Don't think TNI-AL and TNI-AD will want to give their share to TNI-AU. You know how the branches compete with each other on budget portion.

If MinDef in the end choose F-15 or F-18, this's the third time US manage political lobby to cut French, as before F-16 cut Mirage 2000 and F-5E cut Mirage III.

Just add:
Remember in SBY era, Putin offer SBY USD 1 bio Credit line for Defense procurement ? Turn out SBY administration did not take that, and opted to using other financing line to procured those Flankers. Ministry of Finance (coincidence also Sri Mulyani as Minister that time), from what I gather did not like Russian financing term. Thus choose other methods.

My point is no matter what Suppliers offer on credit line amount, Ministry of Finance that will decide which Financing they will take and in what limit. Thus what's in procurement of Government foreign Capital Goods projects including Defense, the decision will depends on Ministry of Finance line allotment. Not creditors or suppliers credit line offer.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The question is in my opinion whether they will get more than USD 3 Bio Credit line allotment that I heard for Fighters program ? Or whether MinDef will got more allotment of overall Foreign Credit that being prepared for them by ministry of finance ? (The second one I have
doubt).

If they choose the first one then to what other program they're willing to sacrifice, if they're moving from F-16V to F-18 or F-15 or even Rafale

As mentioned before, that USD 3 Bio figure, I got as the calculation for Fighters is for 24 F-16V and 11-12 Su-35. This number being around for some time, and what I hear from colleagues Bapenas and Ministry of Finance is the Plan Procurement calculation project that being submitted before. However MinDef can change the project, but whether means they can get more fund, that's another matter.

The Jane's number of USD 20 bio seems as I put in my previous post, is the high end mark that MinDef can get for Foreign Credit allotment in this term. Remember they have to prepare IDR fund also for domestic procurement, outside their usual operation budget including maintenance and man power costs.

Question know, if they expect to get at least 36 Fighters with USD 3 bio, outside F-16V or Flankers (again considering TNI-AU already build support for that type), what other types that can be procured with that budget on with that quantity ?

Perhaps they can ask for 24 F-16V and 12 F-15X, the lifetime cost support will be cheaper for TNI-AU than 36 Rafale I believe. It will cost more than USD 3 bio, but will be lower than 36 Rafale. Still they have to sacrifice one or two other projects for TNI-AU. Don't think TNI-AL and TNI-AD will want to give their share to TNI-AU. You know how the branches compete with each other on budget portion.

If MinDef in the end choose F-15 or F-18, this's the third time US manage political lobby to cut French, as before F-16 cut Mirage 2000 and F-5E cut Mirage III.

Just add:
Remember in SBY era, Putin offer SBY USD 1 bio Credit line for Defense procurement ? Turn out SBY administration did not take that, and opted to using other financing line to procured those Flankers. Ministry of Finance (coincidence also Sri Mulyani as Minister that time), from what I gather did not like Russian financing term. Thus choose other methods.

My point is no matter what Suppliers offer on credit line amount, Ministry of Finance that will decide which Financing they will take and in what limit. Thus what's in procurement of Government foreign Capital Goods projects including Defense, the decision will depends on Ministry of Finance line allotment. Not creditors or suppliers credit line offer.

Its highly unlikely in my opinion that Indonesia ever get the F-15. The F-15E has maybe more advanced sensors, more payload, and is faster than the F-16C/D Block 52ID, but looking to the range, its not an improvement. Besides that only the richest countries (and the closest allies) have the F-15. So i dont think the F-15E, let alone the most expensive and advanced F-15X version will ever fly with TNI-AU.

The F-16V fits better with TNI-AU, not only because they already are used to this aircraft, but its also much more economical in procurement, maintenance and operations.

 

[ngatimozart]

The F-15 is quite expensive and it also depends upon which variant that you went for. But US$3 billion would not buy you many aircraft especially when the spares etc., the term of life costs are included.

 

[Ananda]

The F-16V fits better with TNI-AU, not only because they already are used to this aircraft, but its also much more economical in procurement

If MinDef already ok with F-16V, then all this additional drama will not happen. US already agree with F-16V since two years ago. The user TNI-AU already submitted calculation for F-16V. However since some in MinDef and Political Factions in Parliament still want Su-35, and considering we need US more as trading and Investment source more than Russia, they will agree to let go Su-35 if we got comparable Fighters from US or Euro sources.

This's where the talk of Rafale, Eurofighter, and F-15/F-18 coming. The F-35 is never been serious contender. Prabowo's ask F-35 seems more to gain insight from US when can Indonesia can get in line for that. US reply of 9 years waiting line is similar with LM talk (when they come with F-16V offer) of 2030 period for F-35. This after TNI-AU technical knowledge being harness with F-16V or similar tech Fighters.

I'm still got impression that in the end whether F-15/F-18/Rafale/Eurofighter will only used as alternative for Su-35. Thus for this term (until 2024) the most they will order only 36 Fighters (outside potential additional LIFT).
Simply because it's the ball park number of F-16V and Su-35 that being put before. More than that, they need to go back to Bapenas and Ministry of Finance for recalculate and additional submission process from scratch.

If US source that they're going to choose then my prediction still 24 F-16V and 12 F-15E (perhaps they will call it F-15EI). This unless on this term they will sacrifice other TNI-AU project of Tankers, MPA, and AEWC.

In that Nikkei article the MinDef official talk about less than 60 operational Fighters now. I suspect they only calculate F-16 and Su-27/30. Since if including Hawk, TA-50 and Tucano, it's more than that. Shown Hawk just like F-5 will be next to go.

The Talk of 100 fighters procurement (being mentioned in article) is not much different than the talk from Last term MinDef of 10 Fighter sq (outside LIFT and COIN). However it's long term plan. For this term seems MinDef only wants to put that plan in the motions. Still means at least 3 sq of new fighters need to be implemented, for at least replacement for F-5 and Hawk.