Indonesian Aero News

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
@Ananda, I think Def. Min. Prabowo Subianto asked about American twin engine alternatives (F-18E/F & F15X) to get a better price from the Europeans for the Typhoon and the French for the Dassault Rafale. Sorry about being cynical. Like you, I believe the TNI AU should get F-16Vs, with 24 being a likely number. I am less certain about other choices.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
@OPSSG agree on that. Prabowo's will use all the bargain from US potential to gain as much as possible bargain from Dasault. His preference with France and some in MinDef or Parliament in fact shown quite clear. However his preference is not everything. US trade balance issue is also very important.

Like I said before, some in MinDef and Political circles will always keep cautious approach with US Democrats. They know some Democrats house members at least in Far Left shown support for Papuan Movement, and those Guys are belong to Kamala Harris side. Eventough many Indonesian Political factions do have good relationship with Obama and Biden, but they will keep wachfull eyes with Democrats Left.

French on the other hand is mostly considered more reliable Defense Suppliers by MinDef and TNI. Even after East Timor fiasco, French was the first Western power that resupply TNI.

My calculations on still potential US Fighters procurement more to the need of rebalancing trade that Trump wants. Even if he's gone soon, he's trying to get that. At the same time I do believe Biden will aim on that also, eventough less vulgar than Trump.

How to balance it, which I still don't know. If this talk of 36 Rafale is the one their choose, they will be lucky to get USD 5bio on life time sustainment costs. After that how much credit line left that Ministry of Finance willing to give MinDef especially TNI-AU for US rebalance trade demand? On the same time MinDef have lot off plan for Navy.

If this's not in COVID condition, they can ask
Garuda to dump Airbuses and get Boeing using US based leasing (so can directly impact Trade Balance). However with this condition, it will be lucky even with Q1 2021 vaccination Garuda going back to operational profit next year. Heck it'll be lucky if any Airlines can get back to operating profit by 2021 (this's operating profit not net profit).

Thus it's back to Government procurement, and for US it's back to Defense procurement. I'm just sceptical that if they choose Rafale, they will have enough credit on TNI-AU allotment to buy Boeing MPA or Tankers, or AEWC. Cause without that how're other program for US?

US trade balance is more sensitive issue for Indonesia, due to the importance of US relative to Euro let alone French, German or even Russia as individual trade Partner. If it's not due that, those Political Factions that support Su-35 will not going to take notice on CAATSA.
 
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Ahmad

Active Member
@OPSSG agree on that. Prabowo's will use all the bargain from US potential to gain as much as possible bargain from Dasault. His preference with France and some in MinDef or Parliament in fact shown quite clear. However his preference is not everything. US trade balance issue is also very important.

Like I said before, some in MinDef and Political circles will always keep cautious approach with US Democrats. They know some Democrats house members at least in Far Left shown support for Papuan Movement, and those Guys are belong to Kamala Harris side. Eventough many Indonesian Political factions do have good relationship with Obama and Biden, but they will keep wachfull eyes with Democrats Left.

French on the other hand is mostly considered more reliable Defense Suppliers by MinDef and TNI. Even after East Timor fiasco, French was the first Western power that resupply TNI.

My calculations on still potential US Fighters procurement more to the need of rebalancing trade that Trump wants. Even if he's gone soon, he's trying to get that. At the same time I do believe Biden will aim on that also, eventough less vulgar than Trump.

How to balance it, which I still don't know. If this talk of 36 Rafale is the one their choose, they will be lucky to get USD 5bio on life time sustainment costs. After that how much credit line left that Ministry of Finance willing to give MinDef especially TNI-AU for US rebalance trade demand? On the same time MinDef have lot off plan for Navy.

If this's not in COVID condition, they can ask
Garuda to dump Airbuses and get Boeing using US based leasing (so can directly impact Trade Balance). However with this condition, it will be lucky even with Q1 2021 vaccination Garuda going back to operational profit next year. Heck it'll be lucky if any Airlines can get back to operating profit by 2021 (this's operating profit not net profit).

Thus it's back to Government procurement, and for US it's back to Defense procurement. I'm just sceptical that if they choose Rafale, they will have enough credit on TNI-AU allotment to buy Boeing MPA or Tankers, or AEWC. Cause without that how're other program for US?

US trade balance is more sensitive issue for Indonesia, due to the importance of US relative to Euro let alone French, German or even Russia as individual trade Partner. If it's not due that, those Political Factions that support Su-35 will not going to take notice on CAATSA.
I dont think US-Indonesia trade balance is a factor here in determining possible acquisition since Malaysia and Vietnam have much bigger trade surplus with USA but the relation is still normal and they keep buying non-US defense equipment, even for Malaysia case they have some deals with China in naval sector.
 
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Ahmad

Active Member
CN 235 MPA for Senegalese has conducted its maiden flight. Possible second CN 235 MPA order will be discussed and negotiated in January next year according to Jane defense.

1607621239618.png



Janes made several mistakes on its report, the 2021 meeting is supposed for second CN 235 MPA as the first one has already been completed and appeared in my post. So 2021 meeting will talk about possible third "new" CN 235 for Senegalese as there were already 1 CN 235 in transport configuration delivered in 2017. There are also another previous 2 CN 235 order from Senegalese which are refurbished two second hand CN 235, formerly served for Indonesian state owned airline, PT Merpati Nusantara.

 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
dont think US-Indonesia trade balance is a factor here in determining possible acquisition since Malaysia and Vietnam have much bigger trade surplus with USA but the relation is still normal and they keep buying non-US defense equipment, even for Malaysia case they have some deals with China in naval sector
Trade Balance is the factor in here @Ahmad that's the fact because Trump say it as his aim from beginning of his administration. His aim to rectify trade balance with countries that have large trade surplus with US. Indonesia is part of that. Saying that rebalancing trade balance is not what US aim as non factor is clearly misslead in your thinking, cause it's already known Trump policy.

You can't bring Vietnam and Malaysia as example cause their economy is much smaller than Indonesia. Clearly US now play priority on rebalancing trade toward bigger economies first. Why do you think they're pushing their equipment sales to India ? Difference is, India has much bigger Defense budget and bigger economies than Indonesia. Thus they can use different portions of their budget to provide big procurement with US in same time they still bought big from France and Russia.

Read my post carefully again. I don't say buying US Defense equipment is the only ways to rebalance trade between Indonesia and US. However under present condition, US Aero sector is the area that US hope to get rebalance in Trade, cause that's the area where their products have big chances in Indonesian market. While Aero sectors in Indonesia currently can only be spurred by Government procurement.

Either we buy their fighters or we buy their MPA or Tankers or AEWC. Either way we have to buy something from them. Geopolitical situation also include Economics interest in them. Like it or not, the bigger your economies is, the bigger you're in US eyes for improving the trade balance. The bigger your Economies is, the bigger chances to improve your trade pies in future.

Why do you think even the usual China Friend like Luhut (our Minister of everything) come to US talking on Investment and Trade recently? All of this due to push from US and Geopolitical importance of US for Indonesia. Buying US equipment for Indonesia for the moment is part of continue preferential trade treatment with US.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Thanks for sharing the CN235 images @Ahmad

Trade Balance is the factor in here @Ahmad that's the fact because Trump say it as his aim from beginning of his administration. His aim to rectify trade balance with countries that have large trade surplus with US. Indonesia is part of that. Saying that rebalancing trade balance is not what US aim as non factor is clearly misslead in your thinking, cause it's already known Trump policy.

You can't bring Vietnam and Malaysia as example cause their economy is much smaller than Indonesia. Clearly US now play priority on rebalancing trade toward bigger economies first. Why do you think they're pushing their equipment sales to India ? Difference is, India has much bigger Defense budget and bigger economies than Indonesia. Thus they can use different portions of their budget to provide big procurement with US in same time they still bought big from France and Russia.

Read my post carefully again. I don't say buying US Defense equipment is the only ways to rebalance trade between Indonesia and US. However under present condition, US Aero sector is the area that US hope to get rebalance in Trade, cause that's the area where their products have big chances in Indonesian market. While Aero sectors in Indonesia currently can only be spurred by Government procurement.

Either we buy their fighters or we buy their MPA or Tankers or AEWC. Either way we have to buy something from them. Geopolitical situation also include Economics interest in them. Like it or not, the bigger your economies is, the bigger you're in US eyes for improving the trade balance. The bigger your Economies is, the bigger chances to improve your trade pies in future.

Why do you think even the usual China Friend like Luhut (our Minister of everything) come to US talking on Investment and Trade recently? All of this due to push from US and Geopolitical importance of US for Indonesia. Buying US equipment for Indonesia for the moment is part of continue preferential trade treatment with US.
The EF2000, F-16, Rafale and Su-35 are all great fighters, and besides performance, also political and financial/economical and ToT reasons are important.

But if the Indonesian government feel the pressure of american demands for trade balance, why dont they just order the C-130J and more AIM-120-C7s? Only the US can deliver them and you dont need the be a genius to know that TNI-AU needs them.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
the Indonesian government feel the pressure of american demands for trade balance, why dont they just order the C-130J and more AIM-120-C7s
Yes it can, and that's what India did. The US push for their fighters, India balance it with C-17, C-130J, P-8 and Apache. The question that I put in my previous posts is, if MinDef choose Rafale (as we know it will be more expensive than F-16V), are there enough credit line allotment left to buy P-8, C-130J or CH-47 to balance US Trade Interest ?
India has enough credit allotment for their defense procurement to choose that path. My question base on the fact so far on Indonesian MinDef doesn't have that kind similar of luxury as Indian MinDef.

Remember MinDef have aim to buy Frigates and more submarine too. Thus the credit allotment can't be use for TNI-AU on most of it.
 
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Ahmad

Active Member
N 219 is closer to test flight completion this month. Our Research Minister just visited DI last Friday and feel optimistic about the certification progress. I am also agree on what DI official said that if the company can produce 4 N 219 planes every year, that is already a good thing for the company. The first customer is likely Aceh local government for 4 planes while the rest of LOI hasnt yet reached real contract yet.

Some local news outlet has already said the test flight has already been completed which is not true, they have misinterpreted Research Minister statement that was given on the Friday visit.


Talking about CN 235, yep it is true that there is one ordered by our Navy just like said by our Oracle, so our CN 235 production line is still busy currently despite the plane for Senegalese has almost been delivered to Senegal. Not to mention 2 Malaysian CN 235 planes that are now undergoing conversion into MPA role and another one that is expected to arrive in Bandung next January. Regardless of that, possible second CN 235 MPA for Senegale is still needed to make the production line keep busy for 2021-2022 period as DI needs 2 years to produce 1 CN 235.

Possible another CN 235 for Navy could also be expected to happen once their latest ordered plane is completed and delivered in 2021 inshaAllah as Navy has made a request to acquire 4 more CN 235 based on what I saw on the document in other forum last year in which our Oracle also has confirmed that, but he said not only for Navy but also other branchs (Army and Air Force).
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
N 219 is closer to test flight completion this month. Our Research Minister just visited DI last Friday and feel optimistic about the certification progress. I am also agree on what DI official said that if the company can produce 4 N 219 planes every year, that is already a good thing for the company. The first customer is likely Aceh local government for 4 planes while the rest of LOI hasnt yet reached real contract yet.

Some local news outlet has already said the test flight has already been completed which is not true, they have misinterpreted Research Minister statement that was given on the Friday visit.


Talking about CN 235, yep it is true that there is one ordered by our Navy just like said by our Oracle, so our CN 235 production line is still busy currently despite the plane for Senegalese has almost been delivered to Senegal. Not to mention 2 Malaysian CN 235 planes that are now undergoing conversion into MPA role and another one that is expected to arrive in Bandung next January. Regardless of that, possible second CN 235 MPA for Senegale is still needed to make the production line keep busy for 2021-2022 period as DI needs 2 years to produce 1 CN 235.

Possible another CN 235 for Navy could also be expected to happen once their latest ordered plane is completed and delivered in 2021 inshaAllah as Navy has made a request to acquire 4 more CN 235 based on what I saw on the document in other forum last year in which our Oracle also has confirmed that, but he said not only for Navy but also other branchs (Army and Air Force).
Yes....according to IPTN: "Sebelum matahari 2021 terbit alias di pengujung tahun 2020 ini, pesawat N219 Nurtanio buatan PT Dirgantara Indonesia (PTDI) diharapkan sudah mendapatkan Sertifikasi Tipe dari Direktorat Kelaikudaraan dan Pengoperasian Pesawat Udara (DKUPPU) Kementerian Perhubungan Republik Indonesia."

They are saying this since 2017, but this year the certification is really in the end stage and so there is a big chance that end this year or in the first quarter of next year, IPTN will get the Type Certificate for the N219. After also receiving the Production Certificate, the serial production can start, after many years of delay.

 

Ahmad

Active Member
DI official said next year there is big possibility to reach deal with Philippine for another NC 212 planes. DI has already delivered 2 NC 212i for Philippine in 2018. In 2019 Philippine actually has said that they need 6 more NC 212 planes. I will bring the new report and 2019 report for this post. Look like if the new order will come true, NC 212 production line will be very busy since out of 9 new planes that have been ordered by our Armed Force, only one that is already in near delivery phase, the rest are still in production phase.

Pesawat Buatan RI Laris Manis: Setelah Afrika, Filipina Pesan


I also hope to hear news about N 245 program next year since N 219 program is expected to get certification this year or maybe in January 2021. It is because DI official has said previously that they will be serious in N 245 program if N 219 program already get certification.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
DI official said next year there is big possibility to reach deal with Philippine for another NC 212 planes. DI has already delivered 2 NC 212i for Philippine in 2018. In 2019 Philippine actually has said that they need 6 more NC 212 planes. I will bring the new report and 2019 report for this post. Look like if the new order will come true, NC 212 production line will be very busy since out of 9 new planes that have been ordered by our Armed Force, only one that is already in near delivery phase, the rest are still in production phase.

Pesawat Buatan RI Laris Manis: Setelah Afrika, Filipina Pesan


I also hope to hear news about N 245 program next year since N 219 program is expected to get certification this year or maybe in January 2021. It is because DI official has said previously that they will be serious in N 245 program if N 219 program already get certification.
Reading the article above makes the reader a little bit confused.
First the article tell that they plan to order six more, and then "PAF chief Lt. Gen. Rozano Briguez confirmed that deliveries of 6 new NC-212i aircraft will be arriving starting 2020", in a way that its already 100% that the deliveries will start in 2020.
But this was in july 2019, and it is unclear if in this 1,5 years a real contract is signed with details like the costs, the delivery dates and any fines if there is any delay with the delivery.

But yes, i also hope that IPTN will continue with the N245 after production of the N219 starts.
 

Ahmad

Active Member
Reading the article above makes the reader a little bit confused.
First the article tell that they plan to order six more, and then "PAF chief Lt. Gen. Rozano Briguez confirmed that deliveries of 6 new NC-212i aircraft will be arriving starting 2020", in a way that its already 100% that the deliveries will start in 2020.
But this was in july 2019, and it is unclear if in this 1,5 years a real contract is signed with details like the costs, the delivery dates and any fines if there is any delay with the delivery.

But yes, i also hope that IPTN will continue with the N245 after production of the N219 starts.
No, it is clear that the contract hasnt been signed by reading to DI official latest statement. If there is a contract there must also be some report from Janes since the deal is quite huge for all possible 6 planes and as far as I know, there is no such report ever exist. Regardless of that, latest statement from DI officials should become the basis to make any conclusion on this matter, even they said the specification and price hasnt been set yet, so it is quite clear from that points.

From what I can digest from the statement, the signing of the contract that is delayed into 2021, not the production. So since the contract hasnt been signed so there is no production and production timeline yet.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
The confused status of Philippines NC-212i's order is because of the confused state of Philippine's defense procurement. There is nothing Indonesian Aerospace can do about it except wait for Philippine's Department of Defense to sort themselves out.

Short summary of what I know stretching back to 2017.

Philippines want both C-295 and NC-212i but can't afford both at once. It will have to be staggered. No problem, they'll go with C-295 first and NC-212i later. This was the plan in 2017.
They fumbled the negotiation with Airbus. I don't know the details but no contract was agreed upon.

Fine, they will get the NC-212i first then. They'll just redirect the funding for C-295 into NC-212i. This was in 2019. But they wanted delivery by end of 2020. This was what the Philippine Air Chief referred to in his quoted speech. This was impossible. There are long lead-time items to order and Indonesian Aerospace has other customers who placed their orders earlier. A more realistic expectation, allowing for the realities of both bureaucracies and the industry, is 2021. Had the Philippines DoD agreed to this back in 2019, they would have gotten something in 2021. But nope, they won't agree. I have no idea why. They won't find a vendor who can build an aircraft of similar size and deliver them in a year for the standard pricing. Even if they're willing to pay a premium, which they won't, I am not sure if it's possible. Avionics and engines have a long lead time. If they need them that fast, the only way to get them is by buying secondhand aircrafts, which they don't want to do.

Time passed, 2020 arrived and with it the pandemic. So no contract. Maybe next year then.

That the Philippines Air Force wants six NC-212i is true. They need light, medium, and heavy cargo aircrafts and for them that means NC-212i, C-295, and C-130 respectively. If they order the aircrafts in 2021, the delivery is going to be sometime in 2023 though. The exact time depends on when exactly they sign the contract.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
CN 235 MPA for Senegalese has conducted its maiden flight. Possible second CN 235 MPA order will be discussed and negotiated in January next year according to Jane defense.

View attachment 47855



Janes made several mistakes on its report, the 2021 meeting is supposed for second CN 235 MPA as the first one has already been completed and appeared in my post. So 2021 meeting will talk about possible third "new" CN 235 for Senegalese as there were already 1 CN 235 in transport configuration delivered in 2017. There are also another previous 2 CN 235 order from Senegalese which are refurbished two second hand CN 235, formerly served for Indonesian state owned airline, PT Merpati Nusantara.

So, the CN235 to be delivered is the first brandnew CN235 and the second CN235 after the second hand one delivered in 2017. And besides the third (second new one) the government of Senegal is interested in buying 2 more second hand CN235, right?

I am surprised that there are so many CN235 in a condition good enough to be refurbished and exported after so many years of storage.


I dont know why KFX/IFX renegotiation hasnt been completed yet........:mad:
I am afraid that the negotions are stuck or ended up in failure, because if the negotiations were successful or with a chance of success, they will announce it proudly in the mass media.

Like the EH-101 case, they want to keep it silent around this case, hoping that everyone will forget about it.
Its even unclear if the EH-101 is still in storage somewhere in Indonesia or already returned to Italy or the UK.

So failures and scandals are to be hidden but small successes blown up and announced with a lot of triumph.
 

Ahmad

Active Member
So, the CN235 to be delivered is the first brandnew CN235 and the second CN235 after the second hand one delivered in 2017. And besides the third (second new one) the government of Senegal is interested in buying 2 more second hand CN235, right?

I am surprised that there are so many CN235 in a condition good enough to be refurbished and exported after so many years of storage.
You have comprehension problem my friend :cool: or maybe I dont make it clear enough...............

The first brand new CN 235 for Senegale is already delivered in 2017 and the one on the picture above is the second brand new one. While two second hand CN 235 previously used for Merpati Airline have been bought long before that.

I bet you still believe with that Jane report ???? As I said, journalist some time made mistake, particularly for Journalist who want to write a news related to other country. Evan one of journalist from Jane, Garret Evan, always said that CN 235 produced by Indonesia is just a license manufacturing instead of joint development. If he ever use some of his time to check Airbus website talking about its transport planes, he knows that he has made a mistake. Airlifters of all sizes

Here is the picture show the number 2 which shows it is the second brand new one.

1608078534328.png


Above news also has made a mistake as third brand new CN 235 hasnt got a contract yet, it just show that Senegalese has shown interest to buy the third brand new one.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
You have comprehension problem my friend :cool: or maybe I dont make it clear enough...............

The first brand new CN 235 for Senegale is already delivered in 2017 and the one on the picture above is the second brand new one. While two second hand CN 235 previously used for Merpati Airline have been bought long before that.

I bet you still believe with that Jane report ???? As I said, journalist some time made mistake, particularly for Journalist who want to write a news related to other country. Evan one of journalist from Jane, Garret Evan, always said that CN 235 produced by Indonesia is just a license manufacturing instead of joint development. If he ever use some of his time to check Airbus website talking about its transport planes, he knows that he has made a mistake. Airlifters of all sizes

Here is the picture show the number 2 which shows it is the second brand new one.

View attachment 47859


Above news also has made a mistake as third brand new CN 235 hasnt got a contract yet, it just show that Senegalese has shown interest to buy the third brand new one.
1. Ah....it took some time to search the right data.
Alright, the first (second hand refurbished) CN235 in VIP-livery was delivered in 2011.

2. And then in 2017 a new normal transport/quick change version was delivered, which was ordered in 2014. PTDI jual CN-235 dan NC-212 ke Senegal dan Pantai Gading

3. And the CN235 from your post is the new built CN235-220 MPA, ordered in 2017. (First MPA, second new built, and the third CN235 in total delivered to Senegal).

4. So next year they want to negotiate for the 4th CN235 (third new built, second MPA).
 

Ahmad

Active Member
1. Ah....it took some time to search the right data.
Alright, the first (second hand refurbished) CN235 in VIP-livery was delivered in 2011.

2. And then in 2017 a new normal transport/quick change version was delivered, which was ordered in 2014. PTDI jual CN-235 dan NC-212 ke Senegal dan Pantai Gading

3. And the CN235 from your post is the new built CN235-220 MPA, ordered in 2017. (First MPA, second new built, and the third CN235 in total delivered to Senegal).

4. So next year they want to negotiate for the 4th CN235 (third new built, second MPA).
The first one was delivered in 2010 and the second one was delivered in 2011. Both are second hand refurbished ones. It is written in your own source. They are negotiating the 5th CN 235.

Actually I dont know when the second new CN 235 is ordered, you posted the older news (2011).
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
The first one was delivered in 2010 and the second one was delivered in 2011. Both are second hand refurbished ones. It is written in your own source. They are negotiating the 5th CN 235.

Actually I dont know when the second new CN 235 is ordered, you posted the older news (2011).
Thank you, its just quite complicated for my simple brains.

How about the NASAMS livery?

There are some sources who claim that the first battery was already delivered in november, but i see nowhere an official announcement or newsarticle with clear photos.


Indonesian Air Force Deploys First NASAMS 2 Air Defense System


Edit: its very hard to find useable stuff between the enormous amount of fanboyish fantasies, lies and desinformation.
 
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Ahmad

Active Member
Thank you, its just quite complicated for my simple brains.

How about the NASAMS livery?

There are some sources who claim that the first battery was already delivered in november, but i see nowhere an official announcement or newsarticle with clear photos.


Indonesian Air Force Deploys First NASAMS 2 Air Defense System


Edit: its very hard to find useable stuff between the enormous amount of fanboyish fantasies, lies and desinformation.
I think Indonesian Airforce want to practice the system first before being put into Jakarta region, so I suspect it is some where in Java.

Oya this is a new thing, maybe we should discuss about it further. Any one know this Indonesia Institute of Defense ?? Is it something being discussed before about trying to make an institution like ADD Korea ? As we know there is plan to obligate Defense Ministry to set aside 5 % of their budget for R&D program and because of that we need to make a new institution to manage it.

 
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