Indonesian Aero News

[Ahmad]

The last years there were already reports that some Indonesian airlines were interested in the N219 and that local governments even order some aircrafts, but its for me unbelievable that 165 aircrafts are all foreign orders.

Even if a lease company dare to order some N219s, it will be only a small amount.

That Tempo report is wrong, almost all Letter of Interest coming from local airlines/local government/state owned companies like Pelita Air Service. The only LOI made by foreign company is from Malaysian company (if I am not mistaken the other major stake holder is Indonesian). Lion Air for instant made LOI to buy 100 N 219. You just can google to prove my words.

 

[Ananda]

years there were already reports that some Indonesian airlines were interested in the N219 and that local governments even order some aircrafts, but its for me unbelievable that 165 aircrafts are all

I'm more interested too see how many of those 217 order whether domestic or foreign will turn out to be fixed order. Initial order number will be different with fixed order which what will be the barometer of market confidence on them.

I'm optimistic about its domestic success and that's really what's important anyway. If it's successful here, then foreign companies will trust the aircraft and be able to make use of the established domestic manufacturing base for both the aircraft and its spare parts.

In other words stable production base. However I'm bit different to say that domestic success will be translate to export success. We can see that on Chinese and Russian commercial plane. However for Chinese, their local domestic demand already enough to make stable production base. Too many factors that need to go well for export market. All you put are important, however for Export market you also need to be back by strong financing/leasing companies. Thus not just Airlines need to be convince, but also Financial back up.

That Tempo report is wrong, almost all Letter of Interest coming from local airlines/local government/state owned companies like Pelita Air Service.

Tempo is quite respectable newspaper. Their Editors will not easily print something, if they don't have enough base of proof. Their Journalism standard is quite good, especially relative to Indonesian Journalism standard that full of interest.

If they're wrong, they will announce retraction or acknowledgement of mistake.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I'm more interested too see how many of those 217 order whether domestic or foreign will turn out to be fixed order. Initial order number will be different with fixed order which what will be the barometer of market confidence on them.



In other words stable production base. However I'm bit different to say that domestic success will be translate to export success. We can see that on Chinese and Russian commercial plane. However for Chinese, their local domestic demand already enough to make stable production base. Too many factors that need to go well for export market. All you put are important, however for Export market you also need to be back by strong financing/leasing companies. Thus not just Airlines need to be convince, but also Financial back up.



Tempo is quite respectable newspaper. Their Editors will not easily print something, if they don't have enough base of proof. Their Journalism standard is quite good, especially relative to Indonesian Journalism standard that full of interest.

If they're wrong, they will announce retraction or acknowledgement of mistake.

Yes its already great if the N219 become succesful on the Indonesian market AND proofs itself as reliable and durable.

I just wonder why the police isnt interested in the N219.
From the four Polish PZL M28 Skytrucks, three are crashed and one is retired. Papua is a dangerous area because of the mountains and unpredictable weather, but still, loosing 75% of the fleet in a short period is an indication of the disappointing quality of the M28, so i dont expect the police will order more M28 as replacement.

Selayang Pandang PZL M28, Truk Terbang Andalan Polisi Udara

Melengkapi tulisan Angkasa Review mengenai pembahasan secara global pesawat angkut ringan serbaguna buatan Polandia M28 Skytruck, kali ini redaksi AR menurunkan cerita mengenai pesawat M28 yang pernah sangat diandalkan Polisi Udara untuk mendukung beragam aktivitas resmi Kepolisian Negara...

www.airspace-review.com

So ordering 4 NC212i (they already have 2) or 4 N219 will be a more logic choice.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

An interesting post on Instagram about the N219, with some technical overviews and data.
http://instagr.am/p/CJYrxxVsJBd/
And an article in Thejakartapost which is only for subscribers, but its about the development of the N219A which is in preparation now.

N219 gets type certificate, PT DI prepares amphibious version - National - The Jakarta Post

State-owned aircraft manufacturer PT Dirgantara Indonesia (PT DI) has obtained a type certificate for its N219 commuter aircraft after a series of test flights using two prototypes.

www.thejakartapost.com

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1345087143593570306

This Twitter from Alman today got some discussion on Indonesian enthusiasts forum. I'm not going to talk on availability of Fund or Credit line for P-8A. However more on how this guy who supposedly known much of MinDef program, do wrong assessment to begin with.

If there's interest on P-8A operation, it will not be from Indonesian Navy (TNI-AL), However it will come from Indonesian Air Force (TNI-AU) project. TNI-AL MPA is going to be based on CN-235, because that Penerbal support resources capable off. P-8A interest come from TNI-AU as it's based on program to replace 737 Surveillance.

TNI-AL air wing (Penerbal) also do not have infrastructure to support large Jet Airliners like 737 class. They don't have Pilot resources for that class of Airliners. Whether there will be budget for P-8A is another story. However the one that ask for that type is TNI-AU and not TNI-AL. Considering the situation, any 737 class special purpose type will be operate by TNI-AU and not TNI-AL.

I don't have access to MinDef procurement data as he always put in his Twitter, to shown he has internal information. However my sources (means my colleagues) in Ministry of Finance and Bapenas says that any procurement submission from users of Aircraft type will also be considered by them the availability of the users own support resources too. Thus any institution that ask for some type of Aircraft class, must shown they have the ability to support them too.

It's simple really. If TNI-AL ask for P-8A, then it's mean they have to ask for Investment to support 737 class Airliners. However if it's for TNI-AU, as replacement or additional forces for existing 737 Surveillance, then the Investment for support will not be relatively as substantial compare if it's given to TNI-AL air wing (Penerbal).

Also it was TNI-AU that sometimes ago saying in media that they're asking MinDef on replacement program for 737 Surveillance. Thus off course TNI-AL will not going to have P-8A cause logically and logistics point of view, it's TNI-AU that will operate any special purpose 737 type class Airliners. That's why when Boeing team come to make presentation, they're talking to TNI-AU and not TNI-AL.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1345087143593570306

This Twitter from Alman today got some discussion on Indonesian enthusiasts forum. I'm not going to talk on availability of Fund or Credit line for P-8A. However more on how this guy who supposedly known much of MinDef program, do wrong assessment to begin with.

If there's interest on P-8A operation, it will not be from Indonesian Navy (TNI-AL), However it will come from Indonesian Air Force (TNI-AU) project. TNI-AL MPA is going to be based on CN-235, because that Penerbal support resources capable off. P-8A interest come from TNI-AU as it's based on program to replace 737 Surveillance.

TNI-AL air wing (Penerbal) also do not have infrastructure to support large Jet Airliners like 737 class. They don't have Pilot resources for that class of Airliners. Whether there will be budget for P-8A is another story. However the one that ask for that type is TNI-AU and not TNI-AL. Considering the situation, any 737 class special purpose type will be operate by TNI-AU and not TNI-AL.

I don't have access to MinDef procurement data as he always put in his Twitter, to shown he has internal information. However my sources (means my colleagues) in Ministry of Finance and Bapenas says that any procurement submission from users of Aircraft type will also be considered by them the availability of the users own support resources too. Thus any institution that ask for some type of Aircraft class, must shown they have the ability to support them too.

It's simple really. If TNI-AL ask for P-8A, then it's mean they have to ask for Investment to support 737 class Airliners. However if it's for TNI-AU, as replacement or additional forces for existing 737 Surveillance, then the Investment for support will not be relatively as substantial compare if it's given to TNI-AL air wing (Penerbal).

Also it was TNI-AU that sometimes ago saying in media that they're asking MinDef on replacement program for 737 Surveillance. Thus off course TNI-AL will not going to have P-8A cause logically and logistics point of view, it's TNI-AU that will operate any special purpose 737 type class Airliners. That's why when Boeing team come to make presentation, they're talking to TNI-AU and not TNI-AL.

I read his post this morning, but because he is a source of entertainment and not classified military intelligence and defence procurement programs information, i didnt see a reason to share it here.

Its for him not really important if his statements are true or based on facts, and he always pretend that he has internal special connections and an unrivalled knowledge, but thats enough for his daily revelations on Twitter.

You dont have to be a genius to understand that TNI-AU is the one that wishes for a 737-2X9 Surveillance replacement (while also keeping the recently delivered CN235-220MPAs) and that Disnerbal will stay with the NC212 MPA and CN235-220MPA.

 

[Ananda]

Yeah, I put it in here just shown how his Twitter more and more shown unreliability toward what's his supposedly internal MinDef sources of Info.

There's a lot off Indonesian enthusiasts that still believe in him. Some of them also looking from Forum to Forum, including this one. I put it here, in case some Indonesian lurker, that still believe with him can see his error on basic assessment of Indonesian Military projects.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Yeah, I put it in here just shown how his Twitter more and more shown unreliability toward what's his supposedly internal MinDef sources of Info.

There's a lot off Indonesian enthusiasts that still believe in him. Some of them also looking from Forum to Forum, including this one. I put it here, in case some Indonesian lurker, that still believe with him can see his error on basic assessment of Indonesian Military projects.

Some people believe everything they see on youtube, Fesbuk or Kaskus. They are often low educated people, living from instant noodles and cigarettes, throw garbage on the street, watch only dangdut concerts and TPI/Indosiar programs and suddenly get interested in the World of Defence. Thats why they also do not recognize fake/computer voices used in fanboy youtube videos.

I dont have the time, energy and patience to correct them.
Normally not, but when someone introduced himself on Fb with "Hello im from Indonesia, the most powerful country in the world!" i had to do something before he embarass himself and his country any further...

 

[Ananda]

Hello im from Indonesia, the most powerful country in the world!" i had to do something before he embarass himself and his country any further...

Yeah, I see many Indonesian Fans Boy making "a**s" on them selfes on other forums. Especially Forums and Online media that give more importance to online traffic, rather than quality on truth. Those guys can cause stereotype of Indonesian Military enthusiasts quality on line. On the other hand, people on every segment of knowledge can talk online now.

Believing anything online is common problem right now, add on that many Journalism quality now down to gutters. That's happened everywhere not only in Indonesia.
I'm no expert on defense, however I try to make realistically situation on Indonesian Defense development. That's why I don't involve with local Military forums, too many nationalist dreamers there. They simply didn't take well if someone try to wake them up from their 'wet' dreams.

 

[Ahmad]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1345087143593570306

This Twitter from Alman today got some discussion on Indonesian enthusiasts forum. I'm not going to talk on availability of Fund or Credit line for P-8A. However more on how this guy who supposedly known much of MinDef program, do wrong assessment to begin with.

If there's interest on P-8A operation, it will not be from Indonesian Navy (TNI-AL), However it will come from Indonesian Air Force (TNI-AU) project. TNI-AL MPA is going to be based on CN-235, because that Penerbal support resources capable off. P-8A interest come from TNI-AU as it's based on program to replace 737 Surveillance.

TNI-AL air wing (Penerbal) also do not have infrastructure to support large Jet Airliners like 737 class. They don't have Pilot resources for that class of Airliners. Whether there will be budget for P-8A is another story. However the one that ask for that type is TNI-AU and not TNI-AL. Considering the situation, any 737 class special purpose type will be operate by TNI-AU and not TNI-AL.

I don't have access to MinDef procurement data as he always put in his Twitter, to shown he has internal information. However my sources (means my colleagues) in Ministry of Finance and Bapenas says that any procurement submission from users of Aircraft type will also be considered by them the availability of the users own support resources too. Thus any institution that ask for some type of Aircraft class, must shown they have the ability to support them too.

It's simple really. If TNI-AL ask for P-8A, then it's mean they have to ask for Investment to support 737 class Airliners. However if it's for TNI-AU, as replacement or additional forces for existing 737 Surveillance, then the Investment for support will not be relatively as substantial compare if it's given to TNI-AL air wing (Penerbal).

Also it was TNI-AU that sometimes ago saying in media that they're asking MinDef on replacement program for 737 Surveillance. Thus off course TNI-AL will not going to have P-8A cause logically and logistics point of view, it's TNI-AU that will operate any special purpose 737 type class Airliners. That's why when Boeing team come to make presentation, they're talking to TNI-AU and not TNI-AL.

As I said previously here that his tweet truth is around 60% ( information only and should be separated from his own analysis/judgement and if the judgement/analysis/endorsement is included than it is much below than 60 %) and some of his tweet needs further analysis to separate his own judgement from actual information that he may give from his "source". The main point is P-8 may not going to be bought, regardless it is for Navy or Air Force. This is the valuable information that we could get from him and it is also why the three of us still look on his tweet every day he he

 

[Ananda]

The main point is P-8 may not going to be bought, regardless it is for Navy or Air Force.

I put this Image that has been around for long time in Indonesian media and forums. Base on that, it can be argue that there's never been a serious demand for P-8A, thus Boeing delegated only bring offer for KC-46 and Wedge Tail as that's what Indonesian MinDef and TNI-AU shown interest for.

It's also can be argue that the AF initial assessment for F-16V will be the ones that will prevail, despite this talk of Rafale, Su-35 and ex Austrian Eurofighters. Thus new build F-16V and second hand but with refurbished F-16 will still be the choices, since it's logical way due to existing infrastructure and logistics chain.

It's also can be argue, since this's Indonesian MinDef, and Logical way sometimes give a way to Political interest, that all plan for Su-35, ex Austrian Eurofighters and Rafale will still going to pursue. Since Su-35 support by ruling parties, and getting non US Fighters will still be preferable to gain Political consensus.

After all the interest for MV-22 from the TNI-AD, comes from nowhere. Previously the talk is for CH-47 and then move to MV-22. Shown Indonesian MinDef plan still influence by 'opportunity' chances. Something that people in Bapenas and Ministry of Finance knows well.

Still for that guy Twitter, saying P-8A will be operate by Navy/TNI-AL shown he's not understand the operational concept for Aircraft operation. TNI always (and so far still) put Theater/National coverage aircraft being operate by TNI-AU. The Army and Navy air wing only operating tactical thus shorter range aircraft. For a guy that picture himself as having internal info from MinDef, it's basic mistake in my mind.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

With this current afministration, we are really lucky if the procurement with the highest priority (the repalcement of the F-5 from SkU 14) will become reality.

So personally i dont think that the tankers, Boeing 737 AEW&C and more fighters will come soon.

About the MV-22B? Its a very expensive package, on the other hand TNI-AD look very seriously interested in it. So we will see how it develops, maybe we will got an answer after 20 januari, maybe after 2024 when we will get a new administration.

And one more thing Ahmad..... Ananda and me use the posts from The Oracle on Twitter only as a source of entertainment (90%) and not really as a source of information (10%) which can be found somewhere else based on real facts, more detailed and less covered in a fog of mystery.
We are not hardcore fans like you, we only have a huge photo of him on the wall in our homes where we burn a candle every day for him....thats all.

 

[Ananda]

we are really lucky if the procurement with the highest priority (the repalcement of the F-5 from SkU 14) will become reality.

Despite my reservation for this administration, however they seem have intentions on defense development. If nothing more due to Political consensus. Prabowo's have gamble a lot by allign him self and his party toward Jokowi's administration and Megawati's PDIP. One of the price is that he sidelines some of his hard line moeslem supporters, that considered problematic. Shown nothing permanent on Politics. I'm sure he got some bargain from Jokowi's and PDIP in return.

As he gamble himself for Defense Minister position, he also must shown he's able to deliver on defense development. That's his capital for next election.
However, whether the development will be logical Defense development, or another Political consensus/Pork Barrel development, well that's the 'billion' dollars question. After all, it's Indonesia. Thus anything is possible, whether positive or negative.

 

[OPSSG]

Did you look on my post showing government subsidy to Boeing and Airbus in my above post ?

2 warning points given for this post by Ahmad. I admire Ananda’s patience with him.

LOL subsidy is a subsidy even IMF doesnt let government to finance DI when Indonesia faces Asian Financial Crisis, much much heavier than this pandemic related recession.

6 warning points awarded for Ahmad’s pattern of behaviour.

Further, @Ahmad shall stop posting in this thread for the next 48 hours (as a cooling off period).

 

[ChestnutTree]

It's also can be argue that the AF initial assessment for F-16V will be the ones that will prevail, despite this talk of Rafale, Su-35 and ex Austrian Eurofighters. Thus new build F-16V and second hand but with refurbished F-16 will still be the choices, since it's logical way due to existing infrastructure and logistics chain.

I personally don't see much hope for the F-16V to be quite honest with you. The political backing isn't that strong when it comes to it (for reasons that people can speculate). If anything I have more faith in the MV-22B and any of the 737 based support planes getting firm orders. As those are the only ones that Airbus does not have a solid counter offer for, and we still need to balance the trade surplus.

 

[Ananda]

personally don't see much hope for the F-16V to be quite honest with you. The political backing isn't that strong when it comes to it (for reasons that people can speculate).

That's why I post, either can go with Logical Development or Pork Barrel Development. Either way it's possible. I know many Indonesian Enthusiasts blame Soeharto on slowing down Defense development. However considering the size of Economics in his regime, he's doing it in relative Logical path (eventough he also give substantial projects to his Children).

I put his period as logical step by step development, relative to the Geopolitical situation. Example of TNI-AU, his administration plan actually in the 80's and Early 90's was quite sound. Multipurpose Fighters with F-16 (they're planning at least 3 sq, that's why they're bargaining with US on F-16 that not being send to Pakistan), and LCA/LIFT in the form of Hawk. During 1996 Air Show, I also see the IPTN plan for N250 base MPA/ASW, Scout/Light Attack Helicopter based on IPTN Light Helicopter, and some missile development.

Those plan has more clear staging development than present condition. During Soekarno era, Our Defense Development can only be said influence by more 'emotional' thinking. Yes Soekarno manage to developed big Defense assets in short time. However without proper support infrastructure Investments.
Soeharto's regime on the other hand try to build proper Industry support with the help of Habibie. Eventough it's also sidelines toward his family business interest, still it's better planned than Soekarno's regime.

SBY's actually in my opinion try to revive Soeharto's regime plan during his administration. We know many of Jokowi's first term defense development still come originated from SBY's era, while many of their own plan going no where. This second term should be the defining moment for his administration on Defense. Whether developed or break.

Personally I don't mind if they go with Rafale, or Su-35 for example compared to F-16V. However if they go with more expensive assets to operate, then they should prepare more budget for operation and support Infrastructure. Means this administration willing to take Political will on that. Thus means prepared to make sacrifices on budget from other projects.

Hope they're talking on life time sustainment projects. Since the way they're building Defense so far is on 'opportunity' projects, rather than step by step development.

The concept of multiyears that being prepared from SBY era, now already being implement. Hopefully they are shown discipline on implementations of multiyears lifetime sustainment. I have somewhat confidence with Bapenas and Ministry of Finance on that. However this administration also shown the risk to put Political consensus first, rather than what the users planning told.

If that happen, it will become another Pork Barrel development projects. I'm just afraid that path will give some flashy toys just to score Political points, rather than sustainable Military development capabilities.

 

[ChestnutTree]

I have somewhat confidence with Bapenas and Ministry of Finance on that. However this administration also shown the risk to put Political consensus first, rather than what the users planning told.

The thing is that I don't doubt that the Ministry of Finance and BAPENAS will be a somewhat reliable restraint to the MoD, but rather like you said my only concern is Prabowo's rather 'emotional' way of thinking and his track record. In a time where defense development is considered to be a presing strategic need in our area of the world, I fear that he is simply procuring big-ticket equipment for the sake of another presidential election campaign regardless of the life time cost of the item that he is procuring.

Honestly I have much more faith in the Vice-Defense Minister than Prabowo.

 

[Ananda]

, I fear that he is simply procuring big-ticket equipment for the sake of another presidential election campaign regardless of the life time cost of the item that he is procuring.

http://instagr.am/p/CJnYYZPstpZ/
Well, MinDef spoke guy already use the 'under water drone' incident as part of MinDef subtle campaign for more Defense development. Which's can be good as to gain traction against some 'pacifist' Liberals that doesn't want to see big Defense budget (including one of my relative well known senior from my Allmamater).

However, how he's (The Minister) going to pursue that, still the questions.

 

[Ahmad]

PT LEN Industry has said that it has completed developing HILS (Hardware In the Loops Simulation System) and Ground Control System (almost complete) and currently been developing FCS (Flight Control System) for Elang Hitam (Black Eagle) MALE UCAV. It will have both surveilance and attack capability if any thing goes smoothly inshaAllah.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347489591234740225

 

[Ahmad]

Event though it will be not easy as they have already had similar type of airplane, but at least DI has possibility to export N 219 to China market. The plane can also be sold into Mexico.

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Jakarta. Indonesia plans to sell its locally produced N219, a 19-seater propeller airplane manufactured by state-owned aerospace company Dirgantara Indonesia, to China and Mexico, taking advantage of airworthiness agreements Indonesia has signed with both countries.

China and Indonesia signed a bilateral agreement in 2000 that allows any aircraft certified in one country to fly over the other country's territory and vice versa. Indonesia will sign a similar agreement with Mexico on Friday (10/17), Agus Santoso, the director general of air transportation at the Transportation Ministry, said on Monday.

Indonesia to Export Locally Produced N219 Plane to China, Mexico

Indonesia plans to sell its locally produced N219 propeller airplane to China and Mexico.

jakartaglobe.id