Indonesian Aero News

[Ananda]

How about the NBell-412EP, does IPTN still produce that one under licence

The manufacturing line only for those four; N219, NC212i, CN-235 and H225M/Super Puma. Even the last one mostly only supply fuselage to Airbus Facility, thus they're part of Airbus parts chain. Also seems DI doing final assembly line only for TNI/Domestic order.

This can be the budget for some second hand trash (refurbished F-5E/F, F-7MG), but maybe its a downpayment/first deposit/uang muka for some good stuff...

Yes it's Down Payment, since it's coming from APBN. Using credit line, like in any procurement there're always part of your own financing.

However let see what this will be for. Perhaps Arman is right on this part, there will be procurement agreement soon.

 

[swerve]

..

The T-50/FA-50 has a limited range, but KAI has the plan to add a refuel probe on the FA-50, which make longer patrols possible.

KAI to modify FA-50 with Cobham refuelling probe

Cobham Mission Systems is to deliver an inflight refuelling capability for the Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) FA-50 combat aircraft. Announcing its selection as prime contractor for the modification on 2 December, the UK company said it will "design, develop and qualify a telescopic probe...

www.flightglobal.com

So licence-poduction of a couple of squadrons of improved FA-50 can be a good alternative for the KFX, if the Indonesian government wants to pull back.
...

Use it to replace all the Hawks (with T-50s replacing Hawk trainers) plus some to make up deficiencies in numbers relatively cheaply, it could be more than a couple of squadrons. With the range increased (but tankers would be needed for that) it could do some of what the F-16s do now.

But I think all that could be done for a few squadrons is final assembly & check out. Might be worthwhile, though.

 

[Ahmad]

Look like N 245 program has already got budget in 2021-2024 from Research Ministry around 1.7 trillion Rupiah alhamduliLLAH. This is zoom online explanation from Reseach Ministry himself in 28 Desember 2020.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Look like N 245 program has already got budget in 2021-2024 from Research Ministry around 1.7 trillion Rupiah alhamduliLLAH. This is zoom online explanation from Reseach Ministry himself in 28 Desember 2020.

View attachment 47889

Thanks for sharing.

Developing an amphibious version of the N219 shouldn't be a problem. Also IPTN should be able to develop the N245 in 2021 - 2024 (excluding the certication process), because its based on the CN235.

But ive my doubts that in the same period they can also develop a new UAV, besides the Elang Hitam. Let alone a brandnew turboprop airliner in the class of N250 (actually even larger than the N250-200).

Looking how long it took the development of the N219, IPTN needs at least 15 years to just design and develop the R80, IF there is enough funds available.

 

[Ananda]

Interesting article from Today Tempo Newspaper. It doesn't add much on the information of N219. However for me, there're two thing that need to emphasis:
1. Off more 217 order for N219, 77% come from International customers.
2. DI will use Investors money to mordenise capacity for N219 line to catch up with the order.

Looking how long it took the development of the N219, IPTN needs at least 15 years to just design and develop the R80, IF there is enough funds available.

The government Finance RnD through LAPAN. If government inject directly to DI for RnD, it can create problem in WTO for export market. We can see the dispute between Boeing and Airbus, and Boeing with Bombardier with C series. WTO fair trade rules, one of them are unfair pricing due to subsidy. Subsidy can be on Production or on RnD. Boeing claim unfair price advantage due to Airbus and Bombardier got subsidy that not being counted as costs on pricing calculation.

DI need to be careful when going to export market for N219. They have to shown that no subsidy on Production come from Government to them. This's one of the reasons I suspect they try to attract Investors to modernise their N219 Production line. If their competitors in that class like Pilatus, Cessna etc see that DI pricing got advantage from subsidy, they can go to WTO for unfair pricing practice. That can create big problem for DI effort to market N219 for Export market.

If the orders composition as that, and come to fix order. This can be a good proving ground for DI capabilities on export market. DI need to build confidence with the market. The detail whose the Investors still not available publicly, however if this shown as commercial Investment, it can also be used for market confidence building.

 

[Ahmad]

Thanks for sharing.

Developing an amphibious version of the N219 shouldn't be a problem. Also IPTN should be able to develop the N245 in 2021 - 2024 (excluding the certication process), because its based on the CN235.

But ive my doubts that in the same period they can also develop a new UAV, besides the Elang Hitam. Let alone a brandnew turboprop airliner in the class of N250 (actually even larger than the N250-200).

Looking how long it took the development of the N219, IPTN needs at least 15 years to just design and develop the R80, IF there is enough funds available.

Your welcome,

I think R 80 is still a private owned project and the design is undertaken by PT RAI designer with Ilham Habibie as the lead designer. They have already had good numbers of designers where some comes from those ex DI previously working in Boeing/Airbus. Lapan has made a cooperation with PT RAI so LAPAN engineers can get transfer of knowledge from those very experiences plane designers.

IMO from 2020-2024 government only help the program in term of using Government aerospace facility like wind tunnel and so new facility that include this new facility.



2021-2024 period for R 80 in my opinion is just preliminary design phase where in 2024 hopefully the basic design will be completed. While after, inshaAllah, N 245 program made its prototype and have maiden flight then DI human resources can come helping R 80 with detail design phase that usually only spend about 1 year, as we know detail design requires a lot of (experience) designers.

This should be the cooperation between SOE and private owned company and some profit sharing and production sharing should be agreed first. But I dont believe Jokowi administration will invest in the project, most probably new leader coming up after 2024 election. Ridwan Kamil IMO will be interested to fund the project as he is an engineer and also coming from Bandung where DI is located. I hope he can be our President in 2024 and realize R 80 project.

In term of drone I think it will be just a concept and I think they will wait Elang Hitam to have maiden flight first and take test flight for at least 1 year and satisfied with the testing result before the designer can work on cargo drone preliminary design which dont cost much as well. PT LEN Industry MALE UAV flight control system and mission system is also planned to be ready in 2023. They can use it also for that cargo drone project so local content can be increased and also help PT LEN Industry development as well.

About what has been raised by Ananda which talk about government subsidy, we know even USA gov finance Lockheed Martin and other private defense company through their research department.

 

[Ananda]

About what has been raised by Ananda which talk about government subsidy, we know even USA gov finance Lockheed Martin and other private defense company through their research department

WTO did not rules Military/Defense sector. WTO rules global commercial trade. Do you have prove @Ahmad that US give Boeing direct subsidy on their commercial Products ? Defense RnD being supported by Government cause it's for National Defense need. It's not commercial.

N219 is going to sell mostly as commercial Products for export market. You're talking apple and orange in here.

U.S. Files WTO Proceedings against China over Aircraft Taxes | AIN

Cites failure to disclose VAT exemption for Chinese aircraft manufacturers

www.ainonline.com

This an example of what Aerospace dispute in WTO, to understand what being governed with WTO. Simple Tax disadvantage can create price disadvantage to other parties. WTO demand transparency on whole costing advantage, to shown everyone on global market shown what their pricing based are. If DI wants to market N219 in export market as commercial Products, then they have to shown all their pricing based are. Showing they don't enter global market with advantage from Government.

 

[Ahmad]

WTO did not rules Military/Defense sector. WTO rules global commercial trade. Do you have prove @Ahmad that US give Boeing direct subsidy on their commercial Products ? Defense RnD being supported by Government cause it's for National Defense need. It's not commercial.

N219 is going to sell mostly as commercial Products for export market. You're talking apple and orange in here.

Any way it will be difficult to pass FAA certification for American market. It will take quite long time but I am still optimistic with European certification as they dont have similar plane in the class of N 219 and possible cooperation with Turkey that will likely handle N 219 production for European market that I think will likely be very helpful. Dont forget USA now has Cessna Sky courier with the design look like N 219. Even Japan needs to set up manufacturing base in US soil to be able to market their Honda jet.

Here about subsidy to Boeing (out side their funding to their R&D program through gov direct injection)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/25/boeing-bailout-coronavirus/

Overall subsidy to Boeing and Airbus

https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2010/september/tradoc_146503.pdf

 

[Ananda]

Any way it will be difficult to pass FAA certification for American market. It will take quite long time but I am still optimistic with European certification as they dont have similar plane in the class of N 219 and possible

Cessna can go to WTO if they see N219 got unfair price advantage. Read WTO dispute example that I've put in my post. Even US Airliners doesn't compete directly with ARJ21, as it's mostly only sold in Chinese market. However they claim it on WTO as seeing the advantage can give unfair advantage potential to other market in future.

If N219 only sold in Asia, Africa or other third world nation's, Cessna still can go after DI in WTO if they see N219 pricing got advantage from Government subsidy or Financial advantage. They can claim DI got advantage in certain market. WTO handle Global Commercial Trade, not just US Market.

 

[Ahmad]

Cessna can go to WTO if they see N219 got unfair price advantage. Read WTO dispute example that I've put in my post. Even US Airliners doesn't compete directly with ARJ21, as it's mostly only sold in Chinese market. However they claim it on WTO as seeing the advantage can give unfair advantage potential to other market in future.

If N219 only sold in Asia, Africa or other third world nation's, Cessna still can go after DI in WTO if they see N219 pricing got advantage from Government subsidy or Financial advantage. They can claim DI got advantage in certain market. WTO handle Global Commercial Trade, not just US Market.

Did you look on my post showing government subsidy to Boeing and Airbus in my above post ?

 

[tonnyc]

The R80 is a commercial dead-end in my opinion. If all the R80 consortium wants to do is borrow government test facilities, fine. There are no other wind tunnels of the proper size in Indonesia so they kinda have to borrow Indonesian Aerospace's. They should pay rental fees, but this can be negotiated. But we shouldn't spend any public money on the R80. There is no strategic need for a 80-passenger turboprop aircraft, so the government shouldn't invest in it. Learn from the failure of the N250. If the R80 is commercially viable they should be able to find private investors. If they can't, then it's not really viable and we should let it fail.

 

[Ananda]

Here about subsidy to Boeing (out side their funding to their R&D program through gov direct injection)

That's not subsidy on the product, and it's bailed out to the producers due to COVID 19. Every one doing it, and it's not on normal condition.

Your other post shown how subsidy is disputed. Boeing claim on Airbus, and Airbus counter claim. Now if Cessna claim DI has some subsidy that create disadvantage for Cessna on certain market (for example), can DI shown otherwise.

You simply still do not comprehend the idea of WTO dispute on subsidy. If DI being submitted to WTO by their competitors on export market, can DI counter back? Airbus and Boeing can do prolonged dispute on WTO due their deep pockets. Is DI have enough pockets to do that? Legal dispute are very expensive on the direct cost and indirect cost.

That's why DI has to be careful when entering Export market for N219. They have to prepare prove that their pricing is not affected by unfair advantage.

Learn WTO first.

 

[Ahmad]

Cessna can go to WTO if they see N219 got unfair price advantage. Read WTO dispute example that I've put in my post. Even US Airliners doesn't compete directly with ARJ21, as it's mostly only sold in Chinese market. However they claim it on WTO as seeing the advantage can give unfair advantage potential to other market in future.

If N219 only sold in Asia, Africa or other third world nation's, Cessna still can go after DI in WTO if they see N219 pricing got advantage from Government subsidy or Financial advantage. They can claim DI got advantage in certain market. WTO handle Global Commercial Trade, not just US Market.

ARJ 21 hasnt got FAA yet so of course they cannot be sold in USA

Harbin from China can be sold around the world without Cessna can prevent it to happen

Harbin Y-12 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This is their parent company

The Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) is a Chinese state-owned aerospace and defense conglomerate headquartered in Beijing. It is ranked 151st in the Fortune Global 500 list as of 2019,[2] and has over 100 subsidiaries, 27 listed companies and 500,000 employees across the globe.[4][5]

 

[Ananda]

ARJ 21 hasnt got FAA yet so of course they cannot be sold in USA

So, do you even understand what being dispute in here. Read again the article. ARJ21 is not direct competitors of US Airliners. However US still claim dispute on potential disadvantage that ARJ21 can get due to Chinese policy support in this case, the tax advantage.

Again learn WTO first, before you do further comments on what can be disputed in WTO. You talking first on defense subsidy, which is not matter for WTO. Then you talking on subsidy dispute, which shown my point from beginning.

 

[Ahmad]

That's not subsidy on the product, and it's bailed out to the producers due to COVID 19. Every one doing it, and it's not on normal condition.

LOL subsidy is a subsidy even IMF doesnt let government to finance DI when Indonesia faces Asian Financial Crisis, much much heavier than this pandemic related recession.

 

[Ananda]

LOL subsidy is a subsidy even IMF doesnt let government to finance DI when Indonesia faces Asian Financial Crisis, much much heavier than this pandemic related reces

What IMF has to do with WTO @Ahmad ? We are talking Trade dispute in WTO on unfair pricing. Do you even understand the difference between government bail out during pandemic, and unfair pricing ?

As on IMF did not want to use their money for bailing out unproductive company, well off course. No Finance Institution want that. IMF did not forbid Indonesian to inject capital for IPTN that time, as long is using Indonesian own money. I was there in one of the meeting with IMF on this (eventough only as Junior Officer following my boss, and sit in very back). However Indonesia didn't have enough money, thus no Indonesian own technocrats want to Invest on projects like IPTN

It's totally unrelated to subsidy. IMF is not the ones that pull the plugs on N250 and N2130 as many online Nationalist thinking now. It's Indonesian own Technocrats that did not want to invest more in those projects. That's big difference on that.

We can even right now see, the Investment on Aerospace is doing step by step and not in big way anymore. Understand that it's Indonesian technocrats in government wants, not IMF.

Back to unfair pricing trade dispute. Again what I'm implying on my post is for DI to be transparent on their pricing and shown they do not got subsidy or preferential treatment, before entering Export market for N219.

If not, then they're facing potential dispute in WTO if some of their competitors found case to do that. This can be very expressive, and considering DI's own Financial condition, they have to think that.

You put example on Harbin and Cessna not doing anything on that, when they're entering the Export market. Perhaps because Cessna or other Harbin Y-12 competitors did not see they got unfair pricing disadvantage from Harbin. Perhaps Harbin already cover that with enough documentation, in order to prove they don't do unfair pricing as regulated by WTO.

That's what DI has to prepare. Considering how DI being manage so far, I do have concerns on their capabilities preparing all the potential dispute.

 

[Ananda]

There is no strategic need for a 80-passenger turboprop aircraft, so the government shouldn't invest in it. Learn from the failure of the N250.

My old post also question on the market viability of Turboprop 80+ passanger. That's why new Turboprop that enter market mostly only up to 50 passanger. Agree that if this Region Aviasi wants to continue developing R80, it should found their own Investors. So far they don't find enough Investors for their Project, shown Investors are not seeing Commercial viability of this project. As Banker/Finance practioner, I know they try approach Banks in financing the projects. They claim new Investors will come, thus they can refinance Bank facilities soon. So far no Banks buy their claim.

Tax payers money definitely should never being use for this R80. If no Investors come, let it fail.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

What does "Skadron PTTA" means?
Something like "Pesawat Tempur Taktis Something"?
Are these the bases for the planned new fighter squadrons?

https://www.facebook.com/181276675314017/posts/3278412748933712

Any way it will be difficult to pass FAA certification for American market. It will take quite long time but I am still optimistic with European certification as they dont have similar plane in the class of N 219.....

Thats one of the reasons i dont see a European certification for the R80 will happen, its a direct threat for the ATR 72.
Even for the N245 the EU can ask something back from Indonesia like the sale of the A330 MRTT or A400M, because it will be in the same class as the ATR 42.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Interesting article from Today Tempo Newspaper. It doesn't add much on the information of N219. However for me, there're two thing that need to emphasis:
1. Off more 217 order for N219, 77% come from International customers.
2. DI will use Investors money to mordenise capacity for N219 line to catch up with the order.



The government Finance RnD through LAPAN. If government inject directly to DI for RnD, it can create problem in WTO for export market. We can see the dispute between Boeing and Airbus, and Boeing with Bombardier with C series. WTO fair trade rules, one of them are unfair pricing due to subsidy. Subsidy can be on Production or on RnD. Boeing claim unfair price advantage due to Airbus and Bombardier got subsidy that not being counted as costs on pricing calculation.

DI need to be careful when going to export market for N219. They have to shown that no subsidy on Production come from Government to them. This's one of the reasons I suspect they try to attract Investors to modernise their N219 Production line. If their competitors in that class like Pilatus, Cessna etc see that DI pricing got advantage from subsidy, they can go to WTO for unfair pricing practice. That can create big problem for DI effort to market N219 for Export market.

If the orders composition as that, and come to fix order. This can be a good proving ground for DI capabilities on export market. DI need to build confidence with the market. The detail whose the Investors still not available publicly, however if this shown as commercial Investment, it can also be used for market confidence building.

The last years there were already reports that some Indonesian airlines were interested in the N219 and that local governments even order some aircrafts, but its for me unbelievable that 165 aircrafts are all foreign orders.

Even if a lease company dare to order some N219s, it will be only a small amount.

 

[tonnyc]

@Sandhi Yudha You know already that Indonesian companies tend to cast mere interest as a "it's as good as sold already" in order to whip up good publicity for themselves. The media also participates gleefully in this, as national pride, falsely earned or genuinely earned, means views/clicks. So those 165 orders? They're all Letters of Interest and Memorandums of Understanding. They are not actual contracts. I'm sure some of them will be converted into actual contracts in due time, and we'll hear about it. But until then, just translate any "country X orders Y" into "country X asked questions about Y".

That said, I'm optimistic about its domestic success and that's really what's important anyway. If it's successful here, then foreign companies will trust the aircraft and be able to make use of the established domestic manufacturing base for both the aircraft and its spare parts. And until that base exists, forget about foreign orders. They'll express interest but will wait and watch first to see how it actually performs.