The Bunker Group
Theoritically from budget point of view (this with big "if"), the delay on that period of more then a decade as you've mentioned, can happen not due to Rafale but more to this F-15ID. This's base on rough calculation on plan budget allocation, "if" multi-year budget being proposed by MinDef can be afford.Indonesia’s selection of Rafale in 2022 delays (by at least 15 to 20 years), the ability of the TNI AU to buy AWACS. The TNI can get AWACS once it is finished with taking delivery of 42 Rafales (and not before).
This's why in my posts before I speculate, base on potential money trails that can be available, there will be very difficult for Indonesian MoF to agree on both Rafale and F-15ID. Something must to give out. Latest Boeing lobby progress seems indicating they are potential on get something. However from 4 packages that Boeing talk with the AF before (KC-46, E-7, P-8 and F-15ID), I do suspect only one package that can be afford within this decade. I do hope sanity check cross out this F-15ID.
The Geopolitical and Global economy next year provide challenge on budget, however in same time can provide more push on defense. Frankly speaking knowing Indonesian administrations behaviors, I do suspect defense that going to be sacrifice. Thus potential cut on defense multi years procurement more probable then providing additional more on fastening defense development toward existing schedule.