Indonesian Aero News

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Thats really a plot twist. Im also quite surprised that priority is given to the A400M above the A330 MRTT.
That's power of Lobby and it is Indonesia bureaucracy afterall. So any twist can happen. The plan for A330 MRTT are aim to support Garuda (as I mention before) by taking over some their owned (not leased) assets (A330-200 thus create somekind of quasy additional capital injection) and give conversion projects to Garuda MRO subsidiary.

This is the talk that I heard before between SOE ministry and MinDef. We in finance industry got snipped on that as part of Government plan to rescue Garuda. Perhaps with better travel condition now, it is changing. Thus I can not say this is going to be shelved indefinetely, however argument for A400M over A330 MRTT seems getting more traction so far.

TNI-AU clearly shown still have high interest with A330 MRTT, question will always when or if there's enough money trail traction on that. Indonesian bureacracy twist afterall is no guarantee, even with a contract signed. Only money trails that seems so far close any deals.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The amount for that Used Mirage 2000 package (if the deal got through MOF final filtration), seems similar in ball park of SBY's 24 F-16 refurbished Blk52 ID.

Political Coincidences ? Could be, if they also got similar # of used Mirage 2000. If lower in number, it might turn out tobe harder Political bargain. Right now some already question this administration stance of no Used Assets procurement. After all they (Jokowi's and PDIP) that talk much of no used assets procurement as in SBY' term.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
In my opinion that $734,5 million can be better used to pay the Rafales, instead of buying 2nd hand jetfighters of a model we never used before.

And maybe this PDI-P government likes to point their finger to the SBY-government because the 3 Nakhoda Ragam/Bung Tomo corvettes were bought that time, but the Nakhoda Ragams were just ten years old and never used. The Pohangs are worn out and at least 30 years old. This shows how hypocrite PDI-P is.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
In my opinion that $734,5 million can be better used to pay the Rafales, instead of buying 2nd hand jetfighters of a model we never used before.

And maybe this PDI-P government likes to point their finger to the SBY-government because the 3 Nakhoda Ragam/Bung Tomo corvettes were bought that time, but the Nakhoda Ragams were just ten years old and never used. The Pohangs are worn out and at least 30 years old. This shows how hypocrite PDI-P is.
I'm more inclined to lay the responsibility (if Mirage-2000 gets bought) on the Minister of Defense, Mr. Prabowo Sugianto, which I have in the past pointed out is an old army general who is likely to be stuck in an eighties Cold-War era mind-set.

Well, the Mirage 2000 was a great fighter jet in the eighties.

I understand the political choices behind the appointment of Prabowo Sugianto. He's the leader and founder of the 2nd largest political party in Indonesia. Of course you want them as part of the coalition government if possible and the ministry of defence is the price for the coalition building. But as far as capability goes, (shrug), I think you will make a better defense minister. That's how low my opinion of old ex-army generals is. Look, if the Mirage 2000 deal happens, remember that it will be because the ministry of defense proposed it and approved it and argued for it.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
This Administration is Jokowi's administration, and not Prabowo's administration. Gerindra might be now the 2nd party in coalition but PDIP is still the main coalition. Any minister can propose, argue, and defend for their stance. However in the end the final decision must be come from President.

The Finance people can put final filtering on any deal, but more looking on availabilities of funding and reasonabilities of the financial packages including the proposed credit line scheme. MinDef is the one that proposed and must argue to defend, but all packages still have to get final approval from Cabinet meeting under President decision.

So if this administration changes their stance on Used Second hand defense article, then the president and even the main party behind still taking the big and main responsibilities (at least political responsibilities). The president still can veto it, and PDIP as main backers can still debate it in Parliement if they see it as image problem for them.

If this administrations then decide to goes with military second hand assests procurement, then it is mean they are not serious with their pledge before on not following SBY steps on that. President and PDIP has to explaint to public, as no second hand military procurement is their pledge. It is their political images. It is not Prabowo's or Gerindra's pledges.

On technical sides, problem with F-16 and Mirage 2000 is quite big eventough they come from same era and consider having similar capabilities. US still operate F-16 and keep supporting them on USAF operational environment until 2040's. While French is phasing out Mirage 2000 operational environment from Armee' de L'air.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
my opinion that $734,5 million can be better used to pay the Rafales, instead of buying 2nd hand jetfighters of a model we never used before
This part of budget proposal, being rumours call for Interim Fighters. In sense similar to Brazilian done using Mirage 2000 as interim until they decided to choose Gripen (over Rafale). However if they decided there's enough urgencies for any Interim Fighters (or even Interim Corvettes even Submarine), then better use that to get 2 sq of more Refurbished F-16 (as SBY done).

Rumours talk within Indonesian defense blogs for more 'desert' F-16 (as they call it as come from AMARC inventory) as other option. It is better in my opinion then 'desert' Mirage 2000 (as they come from either UAE or Qatar inventories). Perhaps the 'desert' Mirage 2000 still got better flying hours then AMARC 'desert' F-16. However again USAF 'huge' operational machine still operate and support them until next two decades at least.

Perhaps the budget being prepared to get all spares and infrastructure support of Mirage 2000 that UAE or Qatar had (which unlike Indonesia always build enough lifetime support on their procurement practices). Still it is not having as large as USAF huge operational machines behind.

Still seems now they are getting behind on 'desert' Mirage 2000 as interim sollution, rather than more logical move for more 'desert' F-16 refurbishment program. Perhaps some in this administration think if they have to get interim second hand assets, better choose different assets then what SBY choose.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group


question this talk 'civilian' version, because most of the time for UAV the line between 'civilian' survailence monitoring version is very close to Military ISTAR environment system. Thus if BRIN want to develop step by step with survailences capabilities first, then they are following the progressing steps from most proven UAV contractors.
As my post in July 23rd (thus close to two months), I still believe that taking out 'strike capabilities' on any MALE UAV, does not mean that UAV can not be used for Miltary. It is also like General Atomics or even Chinese and Turkish UAV development stage shown, the ISTAR version can still developed to strike capabilities later on.

Question remain on commitment doing RnD, and Investment to support. Indonesia industry development so far already shown tendency to be manufacturers of other people license.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
This Administration is Jokowi's administration, and not Prabowo's administration. Gerindra might be now the 2nd party in coalition but PDIP is still the main coalition. Any minister can propose, argue, and defend for their stance. However in the end the final decision must be come from President.

The Finance people can put final filtering on any deal, but more looking on availabilities of funding and reasonabilities of the financial packages including the proposed credit line scheme. MinDef is the one that proposed and must argue to defend, but all packages still have to get final approval from Cabinet meeting under President decision.
Well, yes, but there is something called delegation and trust. I mean, your CEO is the one who gets to decide whether to approve the proposal you make, but that is still your proposal. A CEO that micromanages you all the time and overrides your decision all the time is a bad CEO, because if he doesn't trust you that much he shouldn't appoint you in the first place.

I am familiar with the argument that the president as the highest ranking executive is ultimately responsible. However, a too rigid interpretation of that argument means the ministry of defense isn't responsible for anything. That makes no sense. Rather, he must select someone that he trust can do the job and delegate the job. In this case, I argue that Widodo appointing an old ex-general as defense minister is, while perhaps convenient politically, is a net-negative to Indonesia's defense. Appoint him the sports minister or something. He wouldn't do worse there.

So if this administration changes their stance on Used Second hand defense article, then the president and even the main party behind still taking the big and main responsibilities (at least political responsibilities). The president still can veto it, and PDIP as main backers can still debate it in Parliement if they see it as image problem for them.

If this administrations then decide to goes with military second hand assests procurement, then it is mean they are not serious with their pledge before on not following SBY steps on that. President and PDIP has to explaint to public, as no second hand military procurement is their pledge. It is their political images. It is not Prabowo's or Gerindra's pledges.

On technical sides, problem with F-16 and Mirage 2000 is quite big eventough they come from same era and consider having similar capabilities. US still operate F-16 and keep supporting them on USAF operational environment until 2040's. While French is phasing out Mirage 2000 operational environment from Armee' de L'air.

The administration never pledged that they won't get second-hand defense equipment so whether they're serious about this non-existent pledge doesn't matter to me. Various politicians in the House had promised to buy new stuff, but they aren't the administration. And if the legislative really wants to force the administration to only buy new defense equipment, they can pass a bill that says so, which they had not done and won't. Political parties aren't the government. Members of political parties may be in the government, be it as part of the legislative or executive, but their political promises do not bind the government.

For FWIW I do not disagree with the idea of getting more AMARG F-16 and upgrading them. And I do agree that getting used C-130J and C-130J-30 is a good idea. Which probably what will happen regardless of what our Twitter oracle says.

Brand new bling is shiny but our armed force is understrength. It's better to get 16 used F-16 and upgrade them rather than 6 brand new Rafale. It's better to get 10 refurbished C-130J rather than two brand new AM-400. Once we get sufficient numbers of equipment, then sure, go with the bling-bling but getting enough is better than getting fancy.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
CEO that micromanages you all the time and overrides your decision all the time is a bad CEO, because if he doesn't trust you that much he shouldn't appoint you in the first place.
On Operational level, yes any CEO has to delegate. After all that's what management for. However any CEO has to give final approval on big investment moreover that can create big levarerage. For Indonesian level USD 700 mio+ credit line is a big leverage level of Investment. It is CEO/President decision, not Director/Ministrial level.

However, a too rigid interpretation of that argument means the ministry of defense isn't responsible for anything.
Did I say Prabowo can avoid responsibility ? Any Director or Minister as senior executive level has to take responsibilities on any decision that come from their 'shop' or Department. However does not mean you can put as this is Prabowo's decision and main responsibility alone. Final decision still in Jokowi hand as President and CEO/Chief Executive. That's why this is Jokowi's administration not Prabowo's administration.

Does not matter if Jokowi choose Prabowo in his cabinet as part of coalition building. The moment he choose whoever that become his minister, he is also taking responsibilities of their action as Minister. Any decent CEO as Chief Executives take responsibilities of His/Her Senior Executives action. It is collective responsibilities, but in the end the CEO or President still take bigger responsibilities, especially regarding any significant action.


administration never pledged that they won't get second-hand defense equipment so whether they're serious about this non-existent pledge doesn't matter to me.
Simple Google can show this (and this is just few examples):



If this is not his administration political pledge, and I don't know what is your definition on pledging. Especially political pledge/commitment. You are entitle to does not care. However it is their image and their commitment. For me this is just shown any political commitment from this administration is cheap. That's why I talk on several my post before how Indonesian politics commitment cheap. All Indonesian politicians commitment especially after Soeharto fall is cheap, but getting cheaper in this administration.

do not disagree with the idea of getting more AMARG F-16 and upgrading them. And I do agree that getting used C-130J and C-130J-30 is a good idea. Which probably what will happen regardless of what our Twitter oracle says.
The point from begining when I talk on Jokowi's pledging on no used defense article procurement is more for any Politicians not getting into this kind of 'image' building talk/commitment anymore (big hope tough). This kind of commitment/pledge/policy can only be done if enough budget already committed. Something that Indonesian administrations perhaps even for the next two-three terms will not be able to do it fully.

So don't make any political 'cheap' commitment just for image building. This is a lesson for any next administrations. This is just creating your own trap. You are committed for building defense, but in the end the 'pace' getting slower due to one of the problem arise including from this no 'used' item defense procurement policy.

. Political parties aren't the government. Members of political parties may be in the government, be it as part of the legislative or executive, but their political promises do not bind the government.
Yes, but as Main backer they have good influences for Government policy.




Again simple Googling can shown much morw on this example. So this is again part of Political commitment. And again I also see this political stance as slowing down and unrealistic toward Indonesia defense development budget.

However Jokowi and PDIP "if" in the end agree on this second hand/Interim procurement decision, has to come to public why they're change their mind. They can not just keep silence and put the responsibilities to Prabowo. Too much 'image' building politics already create problem in Indonesian development pace.

Most importantly to shown there is still 'uncheap' Political commitment in Indonesia.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member




As my post in July 23rd (thus close to two months), I still believe that taking out 'strike capabilities' on any MALE UAV, does not mean that UAV can not be used for Miltary. It is also like General Atomics or even Chinese and Turkish UAV development stage shown, the ISTAR version can still developed to strike capabilities later on.

Question remain on commitment doing RnD, and Investment to support. Indonesia industry development so far already shown tendency to be manufacturers of other people license.
I really hope the development of the Elang Hitam will not be stopped. This administration is already the administration of cancellations and discontinuings...KF-X, SIGMA 10514, Type 209/1400, Klewang Class and the military satellite are some of the examples.

Also some other smaller UAV projects do not receive any/sufficient support.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...
Rumours talk within Indonesian defense blogs for more 'desert' F-16 (as they call it as come from AMARC inventory) as other option. It is better in my opinion then 'desert' Mirage 2000 (as they come from either UAE or Qatar inventories). Perhaps the 'desert' Mirage 2000 still got better flying hours then AMARC 'desert' F-16. However again USAF 'huge' operational machine still operate and support them until next two decades at least.
...
There is one difference, which is that I think the Qatari & UAE Mirage 2000s are operational, not mothballed, so are unlikely to need the same level of overhaul as stored F-16s. They'd probably also come with spares inventories & weapons (the French attitude to that is generally permissive).

But I agree that for an air force with no Mirage 2000s (or Mirages of any kind - the Brazilians were retiring Mirage IIIs) but which already operates F-16s, secondhand F-16s would be preferable.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
I could write a long counterpost to Ananda but Perun's new video analysis on Youtube just went up, so I spent the time watching that instead.

After all, I don't think any of us seriously consider Mirage 2000 for TNI-AU as a good choice. I think all the regulars here agree that F-16 makes more sense. That new F-16V would be preferred, but upgraded second-hand F-16 are decent. So all in all there's a broad consensus among us here.

My skepticism on the competence of old retired-generals-turned-politicians, while rooted in a decade of observing various incompetent retired-generals-turned-politicians, does not change the general agreement on what makes sense for the Indonesian Air Force.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
really hope the development of the Elang Hitam will not be stopped.
BRIN say they are changing the development for this Black Eagle from more Military centric toward more Civilian centric. However that's why I said before, as civilian usage and military ISTAR usage use many dual tech application. So in theory it is still can be used for Military purpose.

On the other hand this is just shown another Indonesian bureaucracy incompetence on good planning to begin with. They are should now, adding attack capabilities is not as simple adding pylons.

which is that I think the Qatari & UAE Mirage 2000s are operational, not mothballed, so are unlikely to need the same level of overhaul as stored F-16s. They'd probably also come with spares inventories & weapons (the French attitude to that is generally permissive).
Yes, that's why I put in my previous post this one:

Perhaps the budget being prepared to get all spares and infrastructure support of Mirage 2000 that UAE or Qatar had (which unlike Indonesia always build enough lifetime support on their procurement practices). Still it is not having as large as USAF huge operational machines behind.
So it is more likely with UAE or Qatari procurement practices the packages can involve whatever left of life time sustainment packages on those Mirage 2000. Problem more French is running down operation of Mirage 2000, while USAF not. That's more matter in the end . AMARC F-16 just like Indonesian previous admin bought need a lot off work to make them operational again plus refurbishment toward better airframes and avionics.

However even if Indonesian AF not a current user of F-16, it is still better choices then Mirage 2000 due to continues operating environment in USAF (as main users). Opposite situation on Mirage 2000 with Armee de L'air. This create much different situation for continues support from Dasault to Mirage 2000 compare to LM on F-16 cases.

My skepticism on the competence of old retired-generals-turned-politicians, while rooted in a decade of observing various incompetent retired-generals-turned-politicians, does not change the general agreement on what makes sense for the Indonesian Air Force.
Does not make the biggest responsibilities lies on those old generals. Ryamirzad so far shown more incompetence then Prabowo. Still does not make the ultimate responsibilities was with Ryamirzad. It is in the end still with Jokowi.

SBY's two civilians defense ministers shown better relative performance (considering has to work with much less budget as overall average) then Jokowi's two ex military defense ministers. Still like it or not the biggest credit not goes to Juwono and Poernomo on relative better project planing and implementation. The main credit goes to SBY.

Any President including SBY and Jokowi can not just take credit of their "good" ministers performance, while expect to wash away responsibilities on any of their "incompetence" ministers. That's the prices being top executives.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This is actually few days old, already seen some of the photo from Local forums. However this is the official information. Indonesian MinDef and Electronic SOE Company PT. LEN delegation conduct assesment with Greece C4ISR vendor SCYTALYS. This is part of Indonesian effort to built its own C4ISR system with SCYTALYS is the main vendor and LEN as main local integrator.

Put it in TNI-AU thread, as eventough it is Indonesian MinDef as main user and it will.be use for all three TNI branches, in my opinion TNI-AU will get more integration first. At least in Indonesian case, TNI-AU will have more diverse systems need to be integrated. Not this mean TNI-AL and TNI-AD already have more common standarised systems.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Personally for me, just look on how proven UAV contractors like General Atomics developing UAV for example. They are not working directly on armed UCAV version, but developed more ISTAR version first before moving on Armed version.

So as I suspected, the definition for civilian specs more on ISR capabilities which is basically can be dual usage with military ISTAR specs. BRIN basically stated the redesign and refocuss for Civilian specs more to the need to redeveloped basic tech using domestic resources more, rather foreign vendor.

Still this is shown the scope of planning efficiency of Indonesian Bureaucracy. Say first everything that have strong image in begining, then latter on call we can not go to that directly on previous goal. Thus need to redesign and getting less ambitious stages as target.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Latribune inform their sources in Dasault confirm the first batch of 6 (out of 42) Rafale to Indonesia already effective. Means the contract for this first batch money trails already effective. Well, hope sanity check will ditch F-15ID and this Mirage 2000 deal. Focus more on more F-16 refurbished and pay the dues for IFX.

Despite my 'negativity' for IFX, however my posts in this thread during SBY era actually support Indonesian involvement with IFX. However present administration side tracking that make me become negative tones toward the program. I support the program as it is giving venue for DI to involve with 'licensing' fighter program from the onset, to step up their learning 'curve' on Fighters involvement. IFX program is licensing, only delusional Indonesian enthusiats that keep saying IFX is indegenous joint program.

Anyway, pay the dues, get license for IFX from KAI. If needed get agreement with SNECMA for integrating M88 variance on IFX. This will satisfied 'political' images on shown IFX has some difference with KFX/KF-21. Afterall Indonesia like to shown their "licensing" program will give 'difference' version then original license (no matter how slight), and satisfied political neccesity on calling it as 'indegenous production'.

There, finish rafale deals, get more F-16 refurbished for interim fighters, and pay the dues to get IFX license from KAI. Simple, workable time table, still can be afforded (relative to F-15ID price tag that US ask), more importantly in line with 'image building' political projects that Indonesian politicians love.

If only that simple tough..;) Sadly Indonesian politics and bureaucracy are never that simple and logically thinkin. Especially in this administrations. Especialy with less then two years of election time.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
It will be already a miracle if the payments and delivery of the 42 Rafales go according to the contract. All brand-new F4s with training, spareparts, weapons, ground support equipment and special tools.

It will be nice if the government pays the 20%, or if they are not willing to pay more than what already been paid, that IPTN can get approval for licence production of the KF-X, with some components also made in Bandung.

Worst case scenario:
6 second hand first generation Rafales, a bunch of worn out Mirage 2000, 3 new FFBNW F-15EX and a dozen of downgraded IF-Xs equipped with J85 engines recycled from retired Korean F-5s. And ofcourse all delivered without decent advanced weapons.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

MinDef confirm what Latribune put on first batch of 6 Rafale already have effective payment. So seem Rafale due really got confirm tractions. However if they go with the whole packages, I do still really doubt they (Indonesian MinDef) can afford with F-15ID. There'd no money trail indication on that yet. Let's see if Boeing still cam follow on toward getting the 'confirm' deal.


TNI-AU claim the first batch will come by end of 2026. Seems shown the production batch already has schedulle. This so far shown more than up and down process of Su-35, as for first bach of Rafale at least already back by 'confirmed' money trail and acknowledge by both side source.

For Indonesian procurement practise, this is can be said solid confirmation and already past 'rumours' and political planing.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
I just can’t stand it when people like this asshole, keep telling lies.

1. All AWACS, regardless of type (jet or turboprop) are high value targets a notional enemy (like the PLAAF), want to kill. Therefore, AWACS must be defended by a DCA flight, on overwatch. In a contest for air superiority, the goal is to kill the enemy’s AWACS — fight the enemy’s system for air situation awareness, not it’s fighters.

2. Is Alman telling me that:
(a) the USN, the JASDF & the ROCAF, all of whom use the E-2D (or E-2K upgraded to the same standards), don’t have the ability to conduct a technical analysis of alternatives to improve their air situation awareness?​
(b) their selection of the E-2D (which has propeller driven engines), to enable air superiority over the PLAAF, is wrong?​

3. A capability is not platform centric but rather it resides in the system (for air power generation). Part of the reason Singapore (in 2007), selected the G550AEW (to replace our E-2Cs), is because it files higher (41,000 ft service ceiling), files faster (0.82 Mach), has longer endurance (9 hours) and carries more crew in greater comfort (2 pilots and 6 AWOs) — the higher the AEW files, the further the radar can see.

4. But with it carries a CONOPS change, when the RSAF took delivery of these jets in Feb 2009 and Oct 2011. Every choice has a-pro-and-a-con. With a different CONOPS (aka strike leader), speed at 0.82 Mach becomes slightly more important. At that speed, a three bag F-16C, will struggle to provide a 9 hour DCA overwatch. Instead, DCA is tasked to F-15SGs, as they have the missile carriage capacity, legs, endurance, & speed to keep up for 9 hours, without the need to use afterburners.

5. Speed is also a form of self protection for a high value target. More importantly, the G550-AEW is also equipped with a radar warning receiver, a missile warning system, and a chaff and flare dispensing system.

6. In coalition warfare, the RSAF’s fleet of 4 G550 AEWs and 6 A330MRTTs, are intended to operate forward of the RAAF’s fleet of 6 E-7A Wedgetail Boeing aircraft. A G550-AEW strike leader supports a notional strike package of at least 24 fighters. A E-7A Wedgetail files with a notional package of 60-80 fighters in the air at the same time.

7. For air power generation, can Indonesia generate 120 to 180 sorties in a 9 hour period? If the country can’t mass (aka generate sorties at a certain level), it does not need AWACs.

8. Indonesia’s selection of Rafale in 2022 delays (by at least 15 to 20 years), the ability of the TNI AU to buy AWACS. The TNI can get AWACS once it is finished with taking delivery of 42 Rafales (and not before).

9. The buy a few of each, strategy is wrong. Choices have consequences — it’s great that fanboys celebrate for the TNI AU, Prabowo Subianto’s decision to buy Rafales. Whereas I am sad for Indonesia — it delays the date when the country’s air force will be competitive (which is not even at air parity) to a notional enemy like the PLAAF, who operates AWACS.
 
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